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As he lay on the tarmac of a central Hong Kong street, gazing up at the skyscrapers, Chan Kin-man came to a realisation. "I have been living a very comfortable life – up in an office, writing articles, encouraging people to negotiate. Suddenly, I have to prepare myself to go to jail.
"It was a very striking moment for me," said the 55-year-old academic later. "I have been too comfortable. And at some point, Hong Kong people have to sacrifice something to make people believe we are serious about democracy."
His epiphany came during a test run for Occupy Central, a pro-reform civil disobedience campaign that wants to see thousands take over Hong Kong's financial district – much to Beijing's alarm.
On Thursday, one of China's top leaders reportedly said that importing a western-style democratic system to the region could prove catastrophic. Zhang Dejiang, who heads the leading group on Hong Kong affairs, said that copying a foreign electoral system could "become a democracy trap … and possibly bring a disastrous result", Ma Fung-kwok, a delegate at Thursday's closed-door meeting, told Reuters.
Britain showed little interest in developing democracy in Hong Kong until the 1997 handover to China loomed. Then, under the "one country, two systems" framework, it negotiated greater freedoms for the region and a commitment to eventual universal suffrage.
Authorities agree votes for all should be adopted when the region has a new chief executive in 2017, but want to ensue there are no unwelcome candidates.
"It is obvious that the chief executive has to be a person who loves the country, loves Hong Kong and doesn't oppose the central government," the region's chief secretary for administration, Carrie Lam, has said.
Opponents complain that nominations will be channelled through a committee packed with Beijing loyalists, and want the public to gain the right to put candidates forward too.
Unless Beijing shifts by the end of the year, Occupy's organisers say they will risk their careers and freedom to press for change.
Chan and his co-founders – Benny Tai, another academic, and Baptist minister Chu Yiu-ming – hardly appear rabble rousers. Chan peppers conversation with references to the sociologist Jürgen Habermas. The full name of the movement is the hippy-ish Occupy Central with Love and Peace. Non-violent civil disobedience – modelled on the activism of Martin Luther King and Mahatma Gandhi – would be the last resort, after mass deliberative meetings that would form the basis for negotiations by the opposition pan-democratic parties that are backing Occupy.But opponents claim the campaign threatens chaos.
Robert Chow Young, a television host and a leader of the pro-business Silent Majority group, called the campaigners evil. He paints a graphic picture of a paralysed city and plunging stockmarket, with law and order breaking down.
"Let us not let some dreaming, wild-thinking person think they can be immortalised by doing something crazy. Why should we suffer for them? What do we stand to gain?" he asked. "Nothing. What do we stand to lose? Everything."
A poll by the non-partisan Hong Kong Transition Project (pdf) found that 54% were opposed to Occupy Central, and only 38% supported it – though were Beijing to warn against participation, campaigners would gain support.
The polling report concluded: "If the promise of direct, fair and free election of the chief executive, and of having a real choice of candidates, is broken, there will very likely be very strong reactions, [which] many fear will not be peaceful or without damage to Hong Kong's economy."
Public discontent appears to be fed by concern about the poor performance of the region's chief executives, living costs and the influx of mainland visitors, which some complain has raised property prices and eroded culture even as it increases the region's income.
People have come to expect more say and younger people are especially supportive of democracy.
Mass revolts have on occasion forced the authorities into climb-downs. In 2003 plans to implement article 23 of the Basic Law – requiring the region to pass laws banning acts of "treason, secession, sedition and subversion" – were dropped after half a million took to the streets. In 2012, proposals for compulsory "patriotic and national education" were scrapped after critics accused the government of trying to brainwash children, launching large-scale protests.
While Hong Kong residents will not accept Hobson's choice, an inherent tendency to conservatism would prevent them from electing someone prone to provoking or antagonising Beijing, argues Albert Ho, a veteran Democratic party legislator.
But he acknowledges that campaigners are pushing at "a very heavy door – because that door is democracy not only for Hong Kong but for the whole country, symbolically".
Beijing not only has to be willing to cede a degree of power, but also to risk the possibility that mainland citizens will draw inspiration from the region.
Many suspect the threat of Occupy Central stands a better chance of swaying Beijing towards a compromise than would an actual occupation. "We have a few bullets," said Ho. "We hope we don't have to fire the gun."
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