It’s complicated – and extremely violent – in the Middle East these days. Iraq is in a state of war again after Sunni jihadis conquered swaths of territory. US troops – though now only “advisers” – are back in Shia-ruled Baghdad. In Syria, next door, the conflict rages on – bleeding into Iraq across a desert border drawn up during the first world war and now effectively erased by the Islamic State (Isis), the triumphant advocates of a seventh-century Islamic caliphate. Palestine, the region’s oldest conflict, has exploded spectacularly with the latest bout of fighting between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
In Damascus, Bashar al-Assad has the upper hand. But large areas of the country remain beyond his control. The US, Britain and their allies shied away from overt intervention even when Assad crossed Barack Obama’s “red line” and used chemical weapons against his own people. Sunni Saudi Arabia and its autocratic Gulf allies want the Syrian president to go, and have armed the rebels fighting him – though they fear “blowback” from Isis and al-Qaida. The Gulf states loathe Shia Iran, supporting Nouri al-Maliki in Baghdad as well as Assad. The UK and other western countries fret about radicalised Muslims coming home from the battlefields of the Levant.
Everywhere the hopes of the Arab spring have been bitterly disappointed. Egypt, the most populous Arab country, is ruled by Abdel-Fatah al-Sisi, another repressive soldier-turned-president. Tahrir Square is a fading memory. The Gulf monarchs – maverick pro-Islamist Qatar apart – are using their oil wealth to bankroll counter-revolution at home and abroad.
In a landscape dominated by generals, autocrats and extremists, with the mainstream Islamists of the Muslim Brotherhood repressed or discredited, political space is shrinking. Elections have been held in Syria and Egypt but these have hardly been shining examples of democracy and pluralism. Al-Qaida, hammered in its Afghan and Pakistani hideouts, seemed a spent force when Osama bin Laden was gunned down by US special forces three years ago. But now the jihadis are back — from Mosul to Mali. “Turkey, Israel and Iran are the only strong states in the region,” laments one veteran leader. “The Arabs are hell’s firewood.”
Internationally, strategies are being re-thought and alliances shifting as enemies’ enemies become friends, however temporarily. Allies on one issue back different sides on others. The US and Iran, at loggerheads for 35 years, share some interests in Iraq but remain at loggerheads over Syria and Israel. The intractable conflict between the nuclear-armed Jewish state and the still stateless Palestinians is experiencing another vicious bout of carnage in Gaza. More than 1,800 Palestinian dead, the majority civilians, is one consequence of years of missed opportunities and the failure of US efforts to revive a long-moribund peace process. The old idea of a two-state solution has few believers these days. But military might is no answer either. The coming months will tell whether a landmark nuclear deal can be struck between Washington and Tehran. Could that, as some hope, unlock the door to wider change across the Middle East? Or is that wishful thinking in the face of a chaotic and bloody reality?
Iraq
Population: 33 million
The country’s prospects depend on the ability of its dysfunctional post-2003 political system to become more inclusive – after its Shia prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, provoked an angry backlash from minority Sunnis who have never got used to losing the status they enjoyed under Saddam Hussein. Isis is cruel and sectarian, its extremism fuelled by anti-Sunni discrimination. It is provoking a counter-reaction by Shia militias linked to Iran. But Sunni tribes and Kurds have also been fighting back. The fall of Mosul and the capture of disputed Kirkuk have given the already autonomous Kurds, now exporting oil independently, a far stronger position. The division of Iraq into Kurdish, Sunni and Shia areas is a likely outcome. But formal partition will likely mean death on an epic scale.
Backs: Assad.
Against: Isis, Saudi Arabia.
Watch: Maliki, Kurds.
Iran
Population: 81 million
Iran is more powerful in Iraq than the US these days. General Qassem Suleimani of the Quds force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards rushed to Baghdad to organise its defences against Isis. Iranians talk a lot about defending the historic Iraqi Shia shrines of Karbala and Najaf – and loathe the Sunni extremists they blame the Saudis for backing. Hopes for internal change in the Islamic Republic have risen under President Hassan Rouhani but domestic politics are complex, with the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, calling the shots on national security issues, including the contentious nuclear programme. Tehran attaches huge strategic value to its relationship with its well-armed Lebanese ally Hezbollah, deployed in support of Assad as well as in the front line against Israel.
Backs: Assad, Maliki, Hamas.
Against: Isis, Israel, Saudi Arabia.
Watch: Nuclear talks.
Syria
Population: 22 million
Assad, who hails from the country’s Alawite minority, was elected for a third presidential term in June. He has good reason to see things going his way in the fourth year of the war. Government forces, backed by Hezbollah and Iraqi Shia militiamen, have the upper hand, controlling Damascus and a corridor to the coast and the country’s largest city, Aleppo. But with an estimated 150,000 dead and millions of Syrian refugees abroad or displaced at home, the economy is in ruins. Isis’s embryonic Islamic caliphate, straddling the border with Iraq, is likely to continue to be a magnet for Sunni extremists. Fear of Isis has weakened western support for Assad’s enemies and boosted his image as a bulwark against extremism. The last UN envoy warned that Syria was becoming “another Somalia”.
Backs: Iran, Hezbollah, Maliki.
Against: Saudi Arabia, Gulf states, Israel.
Watch: Reduced western backing for rebels. Signs of Assad’s rehabilitation.
Lebanon
Population: 5.9 million
A deeply fractured polity at the best of times, Lebanon has suffered in the wake of the war in Syria and is hosting more than one million refugees. Hezbollah’s defence of Assad has exacerbated tension with the country’s Sunni community, with several bomb blasts blamed on hardline groups.
Backs: No one too clearly because of the country’s ever-delicate internal political balance.
Against: Israel.
Watch: Hezbollah.
Jordan
Population: 7.9 million
Jordan has taken in 600,000 Syrian refugees – following on from waves of displaced Palestinians and Iraqis in the past. The small, resource-poor but staunchly pro-western monarchy has weathered the strains of the Arab spring more successfully than others. Jordan discreetly allowed CIA training and Saudi arms to cross the border into Syria. Its leaders fear the appeal of Isis to disaffected Sunnis – al-Qaida in Iraq was founded by the Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi – but it has the best intelligence service in the Arab world. Maintains peace treaty with Israel.
Backs: Saudi Arabia, Sisi.
Against: Assad, Isis.
Watch: Security responses to unrest.
Turkey
Population: 81 million
Turkey does not want a divided Iraq. Wary of attacks by Isis and worries about Kurdish independence – not least because of the effect on its own Kurdish minority. The government kept quiet about the takeover of the nothern Iraqi city of Kirkuk by the Peshmerga forces of the Kurdistan Regional Government. Turkey has important energy interests in northern Iraq and has provided extensive backing for anti-Assad rebels. Like Qatar it favours the Muslim Brotherhood elements of the Syrian opposition. Has banned Jabhat al-Nusra, a Syrian jihadi group linked to al-Qaida – reflecting worries about “blowback”.
Backs: Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas.
Against: Assad, Sisi.
Watch: Reactions to Kurdish assertiveness.
Israel
Population: 7.8m
Operation Protective Edge targeted the rockets and “terror tunnels” of the Islamic Resistance Movement, AKA Hamas, and killed more Palestinians than any previous offensive in the Gaza Strip. Binyamin Netanyahu’s government backs settlement in occupied territories and does not support an independent Palestinian state. Emphasised turmoil of Arab spring to downgrade interest in peace settlement. Fears a deal over Iran’s nuclear programme may threaten its own nuclear hegemony. Opposes further arming of Hezbollah. Has peace treaties with Jordan and Egypt but is losing support internationally, especially in Europe.
Backs: Sisi, Jordan, Assad, Saudis, Iraqi Kurds.
Against: Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, Isis.
Watch: Attempts to further weaken Hamas. New settlement activity.
Palestine
Population: 1.8 million (Gaza); 2.7 million (West Bank)
The latest Gaza war has been a terrible reminder of untenable status quo. Prospects for peace with Israel weakened by the Arab spring and divisions between PLO in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza, isolated by Israel and anti-Islamist military in Cairo, and by chaos in Syria. Rapprochement with the PLO was a rare move towards unity. Israel blamed Hamas for murder of three teenagers in the West Bank and launched crackdown. Western-backed Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas looks weak, with nothing to show for security cooperation with Israel. No peace process for the first time in 20 years.
Backs: (PLO) all Arab states; (Hamas) Turkey, Qatar.
Against: (PLO) Israel; (Hamas) Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt.
Watch: Hamas-PLO unity moves; PLO quest for international recognition. Boycott and sanctions campaign.
Saudi Arabia
Population: 27.3 million
Saudi Arabia (with Qatar, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates) funded Sunni rebels in Syria and Iraq. Businessmen and clerics promoted Isis and Jabhat al-Nusra, but the government is now coordinating with the US in backing only “vetted” non-jihadi Islamist units. The dismissal of Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan reflected a sharper counter-terrorist focus, sparked by fears of Afghan-style “blowback” from returning fighters. Saudi citizens travelling to Iraq now face fines. King Abdullah, 92, was horrified by the overthrow of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak in 2011, and furious with Barack Obama. Saudis fear a deal over Iran’s nuclear programme – and being abandoned by a US “pivoting” to Asia. Accused of quietly backing Israel’s war on Hamas.
Backs: Syrian rebels (not Isis), Sisi, Bahrain.
Against: Assad, Maliki, Iran, Hamas/Muslim Brotherhood.
Watch: Strains over royal succession. Counter-terrorist moves.
Bahrain
Population: 1.3 million
Western-backed Sunni monarchy, hosting US naval base, repressing island state’s restive Shia majority despite professed committment to political reform. At the heart of the region’s sectarian fault line.
Backs: Saudi Arabia.
Against: Iran.
Watch: Unrest.
Qatar
Population: 2.1 million
Fabulously wealthy Gulf state uses Al Jazeera TV and support for Islamists to punch above its weight with an independent foreign policy at odds with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf neighbours.
Backs: Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas.
Against: Sisi.
Watch: Fence-mending with Gulf neighbours.
Yemen
Population: 26 million
Poorest country in the Arab world. Running out of water as well as oil. US drone strikes, launched from Saudi Arabia, target al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula but often kill innocents. Attempts to reach a ceasefire between Yemeni army and Houthi rebels (said to be backed by Iran) failed. Tribal sabotage of the electrical grid left the capital city Sana’a without fuel or electricity earlier this year, prompting mass protests calling for the overthrow of the government.
Backs: Saudis.
Against: al-Qaida. Iran.
Watch: Fuel and food shortages. Drone strikes.
Egypt
Population: 86.9 million
President (formerly Field Marshal) Abdel-Fatah al-Sisi, elected in June, has vowed to crush the Muslim Brotherhood and banned it as a terrorist organisation. His military government overthrew democratically elected but unpopular Muslim Brotherhood President Mohamed Morsi, killing and imprisoning thousands. Egypt emphasises commitment to crushing jihadis in Sinai, the strategically vital peninsula bordering Israel. Maintains a peace treaty with Israel and keen for continued US military aid. Receiving massive financial support from Saudis and Emiratis. Accused of effectively backing Israel against Hamas.
Backs: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Jordan, Assad.
Against: Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Isis, Iran, Qatar.
Watch: Sisi’s grip on the economy. Relations with US.
Libya
Population: 6.2 million
Risks becoming a failed state three years after Nato-backed rebels overthrew Muammar Gaddafi. Central government in Tripoli is unable to control hundreds of militias, especially Benghazi-based jihadists of Ansar al-Sharia. Former general Khalifa Haftar is waging a war of “dignity” against Islamists. Low turnout in parliamentary elections; militia violence, as well as power, fuel and water shortages disrupt daily life. Evacuation of US, UK and other foreign embassies underline growing international alarm.
Backs: Sisi.
Against: Qatar.
Watch: Political dialogue between rival groups. Slide to civil war
Tunisia
Population: 10.9 million
Lone poster child for the success of Arab spring uprisings. Its deposed dictator, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, lives in gilded exile in Saudi Arabia. The Islamist al-Nahda party, close to the Muslim Brotherhood, stands out for accepting the need for power-sharing with rivals and playing down interest in Sharia law. The political system is still fragile, while polarisation and violence in Egypt and Libya make Tunisia’s transition all the more difficult.
Backs: Algeria, Morocco, Libya.
Against: Jihadis.
Watch: Elections in October.
