Osborne and Carney to miss G20 for Scottish vote - business live

The chancellor will also miss the G20 meeting.

A spokesman for the Bank of England has commented on the decision of governor Mark Carney to skip the G2o meeting in Australia and head back to the UK in time for the results of the Scottish vote.

He said:

The final decision was taken this week.

It is just prudent planning, and you would expect the central bank governor of the United Kingdom to be here for an occasion such as this.

Prudent planning a week before a vote we have known about for almost a year and a half...

Mark Carney will fly to Australia to chair a plenary meeting of the Financial Stability Board of bank regulators in Cairns on Wednesday, as planned.

He will then fly back to the UK earlier than planned, to make it in time for Thursday evening when the results of the Scottish independence referendum will start to roll in. Polling stations will close at 10pm.

Carney originally planned to remain in Australia to attend a meeting of G20 finance ministers and governors’ meeting over the weekend of 20-21 September. The governor will be represented by his deputy for financial stability Sir Jon Cunliffe.

The pound has had a volatile week against the dollar, as momentum has swung from the Scottish independence yes campaign to the no campaign, and the latest poll today leaves the vote too close to call.

Breaking: ICM/Guardian poll shows 51% in favour of the union and 49% in favour of independence, excluding undecideds.

A sizeable 17% of voters said they had yet to make up their minds, so it’s still down to the wire. The Guardian’s full story is here.

For all the latest on the Scottish referendum debate, read our live blog here.

My colleague Julia Kollewe has been speaking to Tim Martin, boss of pub chain JD Wetherspoon, who says a pint might be cheaper north of the border if Scotland votes for independence.

Julia reports:

In contrast to a growing number of retailers who have warned of higher prices in the shops if Scots back independence, Tim Martin, chairman of Wetherspoon, one of Britain’s biggest pub chains, said a pint could actually become cheaper north of the border.

He told the Guardian: “It’s absurd and underestimates the intelligence of the public to say things like the cost of your supermarket goods are going to rise and [independence] is going to result in economic dislocation.”

If Scots vote for independence, the new government “might reduce VAT in pubs to the same level as in supermarkets, and they might do the same for business rates to encourage cafes and pubs. It might bring down the cost of a pint in a pub or restaurant.”

He hasn’t spoken to Scotland’s first minister Alex Samond yet, but said: “If they do get independence, he will be hearing from me within 24 hours.”

Wetherspoon plans to open more pubs in Scotland, where it has 75 at the moment (out of 900 across the UK) and employs 4,000 people.

“You could be looking at us with 100 pubs in five years. We might be employing 5,000-60,000 people there in a few years,” Martin said.

He added: “There is no rational reason why Scotland shouldn’t be able to thrive as an independent country if it has a sensible economic policy. There are lots of countries around the world with a similar population to Scotland that have done so. It will depend entirely on the will of the Scots. They have to work hard.”

Wetherspoon is the biggest managed pub chain in Scotland, and the second-biggest in the UK, behind Mitchells & Butlers. (A managed pub has to buy some of its beer from a particular brewery or pub company, in contrast to free houses which are independent watering holes.)

The price of gold has fallen to 7.5 month lows on rising speculation that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next year.

Gold is on track for its biggest weekly fall since late May, dropping 2.6%.

A rise in interest rates would boost the dollar, which tends to move in the opposite direction to gold.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, isn’t feeling too optimistic about the eurozone just yet, despite the stronger-than-expected industrial production figures.

Eurozone industrial production rebounded in July, but the upturn masks an underlying picture of an economy that continues to struggle. Official data from Eurostat showed industrial production rising 1.0% in July, representing the first increase in production since April. The data provide hope that the economy will have picked up in the third quarter, rebounding from the stagnation seen in the second quarter.

However, while a rebound in the economy may be on the cards, third quarter growth is likely to be modest at best. Importantly, the monthly data are every volatile, meaning it would be dangerous to put too much emphasis on one month’s improved performance as an indicator of the growth trend.

Instead, looking over the past three months, which provides a better guide to the underlying trend, the data show that output was 0.4% lower than in the prior three month period. It could be argued that this includes the weak month of May, when production slumped 1.2% due to the higher than usual number of holidays, meaning the extent of the downturn may be somewhat exaggerated.

It is hoped that additional stimulus announced by the ECB in June and earlier this month will help revive the industrial sector in coming months, meaning the underlying trend may start to improve as we move towards the end of the year. However, any further deterioration will boost calls for the ECB to take further action in the form of full-scale quantitative easing, including purchases of government debt.

It looks like a slowdown in housebuilding is partly behind the drop off from the recent rapid growth in the construction industry. Official figures out this morning show annual expansion for the sector dipping to an eight-month low in July.

Construction output was unchanged on the month before after rising 1.2% in June. Annual growth continued as the sector recovers from the its deep downturn, but at 2.6% it was the weakest year-on-year expansion since November.

The Office for National Statistics data showed private sector home building rose 1.1% on the month in July, down from 2% growth in June. The annual growth rate was a five-month low but still a solid 15.9%.

The news of a slowdown in housebuilding follows several reports suggesting the housing market may be coming off the boil.

Yesterday, a closely watched poll of surveyors pointed to a housing market plateau, with the number of sales agreed last month falling for the first time in nearly two years. The drop in sales and a fall in new buyer inquiries for the second month in a row could partly be explained by concerns over a rise in interest rates weighing on buyer confidence, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) said.

But the official construction numbers contrast with the latest business survey for the sector covering August. Builders enjoyed the strongest growth for seven months in August with home building continuing to lead the construction rebound, according to the Markit/Cips UK construction PMI survey. That report also flagged concerns among builders, however, around skills shortages and longer lead times for building materials.

Against the generally upbeat backdrop, the construction industry would likely take the latest official data with “pinch of salt”, said Stefan Friedhoff, Global Corporates managing director for construction at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking. He added:

Other industry readings earlier in the month reported optimism among construction firms.

“As always, the reality is somewhere in between. There is undoubtedly a buoyancy in the industry rarely seen since the recession, but some factors are concerning. Demand is increasing but contractors are having to contend with cost inflation, labour shortages and a relentless pressure on their supply chains.

Investors have welcomed McFarlane’s appointment as Barclays chairman.

The bank is now leading the FTSE 100 risers, up 1.4% at 228.75p.

Barclays has outlined McFarlane’s financial package and other contractual arrangements. In summary, he will be paid £800,000 a year (£700,000 cash, £100,000 in shares), and will receive private health insurance but no pension.

Fees and Time Commitment

As a non-executive director of Barclays, Mr McFarlane will receive an annual fee of £250,000, £30,000 of which will be in the form of Barclays shares.

As chairman of Barclays, Mr McFarlane will receive an annual fee of £800,000 (inclusive of the annual fee he will receive as a non-executive director). £100,000 of the annual fee received as chairman will be in the form of Barclays shares (replacing the £30,000 of the annual fee received as a non-executive director being in the form of Barclays shares).

Mr McFarlane’s time commitment to Barclays is expected to be 80% of a full time role.

Benefits

Mr McFarlane will be eligible for private health insurance. He is not eligible to participate in the Bank’s incentive award and long-term incentive schemes, nor will he participate in the Bank’s pension schemes or receive any pension contributions.

Notice Period

The appointment letter provides for a notice period of 12 months from Barclays or a notice period of 6 months from Mr McFarlane.

The full statement on John McFarlane’s appointment as Barclays chairman is here.

Sir John Sunderland, who led the process to appoint a successor to Sir David Walker, had this to say:

The Barclays board set very challenging requirements for its new chairman and I am very pleased that in John McFarlane we have identified someone who met all of our criteria.

John is an enormously experienced and respected banker with global experience of both retail and investment banking and he will bring great leadership, integrity and knowledge to the role.

John McFarlane:

I am looking forward enormously to joining the Barclays Board and to working with my fellow non-executive directors, Antony Jenkins and his leadership team to deliver the strategy that Barclays has committed to and which I fully support.

Under Sir David’s leadership Barclays has made significant progress in putting in place the foundations for sustainable, long term success. I am very excited to be asked to chair Barclays as it enters the next, important stage of its long history.

Outgoing chairman Sir David Walker:

I am delighted that Barclays has appointed John McFarlane to succeed me as chairman. We are making good progress toward the delivery of our strategic objectives and I have every confidence that John will work very successfully with Antony Jenkins in leading this great bank through the next phase of that journey.

Nils Pratley, the Guardian’s financial editor, gives his instant view on the appointment of John McFarlane as Barclays chairman:

This is a solid but unspectacular appointment. McFarlane has long banking experience, and is a proven FTSE 100 chairman. Aviva, after a decade of drift, started to go roughly right when he got the chairman gig.

The FT has removed its online paywall for all coverage of the Scottish independence debate.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the financial markets, the world economy, business and the eurozone.

As Scotland’s decision on independence draws closer - now six days away - the International Monetary Fund has become the latest organisation to intervene in the debate.

The Washington-based fund has warned of the market uncertainty a yes vote next Thursday would create, given it is not yet clear what the currency and fiscal arrangements would be.

William Murray, an IMF spokesman, said there would be a number of “important and complicated” issues to be hammered out between London and Edinburgh.

The main immediate effect is likely to be uncertainty over the transition to potentially new and different monetary, financial and fiscal frameworks in Scotland.

While this uncertainty could lead to negative market reactions in the short term, the longer term will depend on the decisions being made during the transition, and I do not want to speculate on this.

The concerns he raises are not new to the debate, but it is significant that the IMF is making such cautionary statements, and will not be welcomed by Scotland’s first minister, Alex Salmond.

The warning came as a new YouGov poll showed weakening support for independence. The latest poll for the Times and the Sun revealed 52% in favour of remaining within the UK, and 48% in favour of leaving, excluding don’t knows.