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An anti-euro surge in Germany? The evidence vs the coverage

The “Alternative for Germany” won seats in a state parliament election for the first time last Sunday, but is there really an anti-euro surge in the country as media coverage suggests?

  • theguardian.com,
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In Saxony, Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) anti-euro party won its first seats in a state parliament.
In Saxony, Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) anti-euro party won its first seats in a state parliament. Photograph: TOBIAS SCHWARZ/AFP/Getty Images

On Sunday the anti-euro party “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) won 9.7% of the vote in a state election in Saxony, enough to win its first seats in a state parliament. 159,547 people voted for the party. Turnout was 49.2%, a three point drop from the 2009 vote.

The result was greeted as yet another clear sign of growing and enthused anti-euro support in Germany.

In May’s European Parliament elections 164,263 people in Saxony voted AfD, while at last year’s federal election the party was supported by 157,781 voters in the state.

Number of AfD voters in Saxony
159,547 people voted for the AfD in Saxony’s state election, less than the support received by the party in the state at the recent European elections.

1.1% more people voted AfD in Sunday’s state elections compared to last year’s general election.

Hardly a surge. The latest average of national polls places the party on about 5.5-6%. Sufficient to enter parliament, yet not a significant increase from the 2013 result (4.7%), especially considered that the collapse in liberal (FDP) support has been greater.

Two relatively new European parties whose support has actually surged over the past year are left-wing Podemos in Spain and liberals NEOS in Austria.

Podemos, which was founded in January of this year on the back of the indignados protest movement, won 8% of the vote at the European Parliament elections in May, and is now averaging double that figure.

Average of polls in Spain.
Support for left-wing party Podemos has surged since its founding at the beginning of 2014.

The party even hit 20% in a recent poll, just one point behind centre-left PSOE.

#Spain - Sigma Dos poll: PP 30.1% PSOE 22.3% PODEMOS 21.2% UPyD 5.6% IU 4.1% http://t.co/VtMngkToGn pic.twitter.com/R42gMNxZST

— electionista (@electionista) August 31, 2014

The liberal, pro-EU, party NEOS was founded in Austria in October 2012. The party entered parliament in 2013 with 4.96% of the vote (232,946 voters), and won a seat at this year’s EU elections (supported by 229,781 voters, 8.14% of the vote).

The party is now averaging 10% across polls in Austria.

That’s the evidence. The coverage tells a different story.

Using a combination of queries, the following table shows mentions of the AfD, Podemos and NEOS in British newspapers (in print) over the past year, Google News results in the UK, and mentions on economist.com (via Google search).

Coverage of AfD, Podemos and NEOS across British media.
Coverage of AfD, Podemos and NEOS across British media.

Cynics might come to the conclusion that British media weren’t too fond of the euro.

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