Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on October 04, 2011
An unprecedented ozone hole opened in the Arctic during 2011, researchers reported this week in the journal Nature. Holes in the Antarctic ozone layer have opened up each spring since the early 1980s, but the Arctic had only shown modest springtime ozone losses in the 5% - 30% range over the past twenty years. But this year, massive ozone destruction of 80% occurred at altitudes of 18 - 20 kilometers in the Arctic during spring, resulting in Earth's first known case of twin ozone holes, one over each pole. During late March and portions of April, the Arctic ozone hole was positioned over heavily populated areas of Western Europe, allowing large levels of damaging ultraviolet rays to reach the surface. UV-B radiation causes skin damage that can lead to cancer, and has been observed to reduce crop yields in two-thirds of 300 important plant varieties studied (WMO, 2002.) The total loss of ozone in a column from the surface to the top of the atmosphere reached 40% during the peak of this year's Arctic ozone hole. Since each 1% drop in ozone levels results in about 1% more UV-B reaching Earth's surface (WMO, 2002), UV-B levels reaching the surface likely increased by 40% at the height of this year's hole. We know that an 11% increase in UV-B light can cause a 24% decrease in winter wheat yield (Zheng et al., 2003), so this year's Arctic ozone hole may have caused noticeable reductions in Europe's winter wheat crop.
Figure 1. Left: Ozone in Earth's stratosphere at an altitude of approximately 12 miles (20 kilometers) in mid-March 2011, near the peak of the 2011 Arctic ozone loss. Right: chlorine monoxide--the primary agent of chemical ozone destruction in the cold polar lower stratosphere--the same day and altitude. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.
What caused this year's unprecedented Arctic ozone hole?
Earth's ozone holes are due to the presence of human-emitted CFC gases in the stratosphere. The ozone destruction process is greatly accelerated when the atmosphere is cold enough to make clouds in the stratosphere. These polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) act like ozone destruction factories, by providing convenient surfaces for the reactions that destroy ozone to occur. PSCs only form in the 24-hour darkness of unusually cold winters near the poles; the atmosphere is too warm elsewhere to support PSCs. Stratospheric temperatures are warmer in the Arctic than the Antarctic, so PSCs and ozone destruction in the Arctic has, in the past, been much less than in the Antarctic. In order to get temperatures cold enough to allow formation of PSCs, a strong vortex of swirling winds around the pole needs to develop. Such a "polar vortex" isolates the cold air near the pole, keeping it from mixing with warmer air from the mid-latitudes. A strong polar vortex in winter and spring is common in the Antarctic, but less common in the Arctic, since there are more land masses that tend to cause large-scale disruptions to the winds of the polar vortex, allowing warm air from the south to mix northwards. However, as the authors of the Nature study wrote, "The persistence of a strong, cold vortex from December through to the end of March was unprecedented. In February - March 2011, the barrier to transport at the Arctic vortex edge was the strongest in either hemisphere in the last ~30 years. This unusual polar vortex, combined with very cold Arctic stratospheric temperatures typical of what we've seen in recent decades, led to the most favorable conditions ever observed for formation of Arctic PSCs. The reasons for this unusual vortex are unknown.
Figure 2. Global lower stratospheric departure of temperature from average since 1979, as measured by satellites. The large spikes in 1982 and 1991 are due to the eruptions of El Chicon and Mt. Pinatubo, respectively. These volcanoes ejected huge quantities of sulphuric acid dust into the stratosphere. This dust absorbed large quantities of solar radiation, heating the stratosphere. Stratospheric temperature has been generally decreasing in recent decades, due to the twin effects of ozone depletion and the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. During Jan - Aug 2011, Earth's stratosphere had its 3rd coldest such period on record. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
Greenhouse gases cause stratospheric cooling
When ozone absorbs UV light, it heats the surrounding air. Thus, the loss of ozone in recent decades has helped cool the stratosphere, resulting in a feedback loop where colder temperatures create more PSCs, resulting in even more ozone destruction. However, in 1987, CFCs and other ozone-depleting substances were banned. As a result, CFC levels in the stratosphere peaked in 2000, and had fallen by 3.8% as of 2008, according to NASA. Unfortunately, despite the fact that CFCs are falling in concentration, the stratosphere is not warming up. The recovery of the ozone layer is being delayed by human emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane. These gases trap heat near the surface, but cause cooling of the stratosphere and increased formation of the PSCs that help destroy ozone. We need only look as far as our sister planet, Venus, to see an example of how the greenhouse effect warms the surface but cools the upper atmosphere. Venus's atmosphere is 96.5% carbon dioxide, which has triggered a hellish run-away greenhouse effect. The average surface temperature on Venus is a sizzling 894 °F, hot enough to melt lead. Venus's upper atmosphere, though, is a startling 4 - 5 times colder than Earth's upper atmosphere. The explanation of this greenhouse gas-caused surface heating and upper air cooling is not simple, but good discussions can be found at Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and realclimate.org, for those unafraid of radiative transfer theory. One way to think about the problem is that the amount of infrared heat energy radiated out to space by a planet is roughly equal to the amount of solar energy it receives from the sun. If the surface atmosphere warms, there must be compensating cooling elsewhere in the atmosphere in order to keep the amount of heat given off by the planet the same and balanced. As emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise, their cooling effect on the stratosphere will increase. This will make recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer much slower.
Greenhouse gases cause cooling higher up, too
Greenhouse gases have also led to the cooling of the atmosphere at levels higher than the stratosphere. Over the past 30 years, the Earth's surface temperature has increased 0.2 - 0.4 °C, while the temperature in the mesosphere, about 50 - 80 km above ground, has cooled 5 - 10 °C (Beig et al., 2006). There is no appreciable cooling due to ozone destruction at these altitudes, so nearly all of this dramatic cooling is due to the addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Even greater cooling of 17 °C per decade has been observed high in the ionosphere, at 350 km altitude. This has affected the orbits of orbiting satellites, due to decreased drag, since the upper atmosphere has shrunk and moved closer to the surface (Lastovicka et al., 2006). The density of the air has declined 2 - 3% per decade the past 30 years at 350 km altitude. So, in a sense, the sky IS falling due to the greenhouse effect!
Since any increase in solar energy would heat both the lower and upper atmosphere, the observed drop in upper atmospheric temperatures in the past 30 years argues against an increase in energy coming from the sun being responsible for global warming. The observed cooling of the upper atmosphere is strong evidence that the warming at Earth's surface is due to human-emitted greenhouse gases that trap heat near the surface and cause compensating cooling aloft. It should also give us additional confidence in the climate models, since they predicted that this upper atmospheric cooling would occur. Keep in mind, also, that 2010 was tied for Earth's hottest year on record, and the amount of energy coming from the sun during 2009 - 2010 was the lowest since satellite measurements began in the late 1970s. There has been no long-term increase in energy coming from the sun in recent decades, and the notion that global warming is due to an increase in energy coming from the sun simply doesn't add up.
Commentary
The development of an ozone hole in the Arctic is a discouraging reminder that humans are capable of causing harmful and unexpected planetary-scale changes to the environment. A 2002 assessment of the ozone layer by the World Meteorological Organization concluded that an Arctic ozone hole would be unlikely to occur, due to the lack of a strong Arctic vortex in winter, and the fact CFCs levels had started to decline. However, an Arctic ozone hole may now become a regular visitor in the future. "Day-to-day temperatures in the 2010 - 11 Arctic winter did not reach lower values than in previous cold Arctic winters," said the lead author of this year's Nature study, Gloria Manney, of NASA and the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology in Socorro. "The difference from previous winters is that temperatures were low enough to produce ozone-destroying forms of chlorine for a much longer time. This implies that if winter Arctic stratospheric temperatures drop just slightly in the future, for example as a result of climate change, then severe Arctic ozone loss may occur more frequently." I might add that its a very good thing CFCs were banned in 1987, or else the Arctic ozone hole would have opened up much sooner and would have been far worse. It turned out that the costs of the CFC ban, while substantial, were far less than the dire cost predictions that the CFC industry warned of. It is highly probable that we will see future nasty climate change surprises far more serious than the Arctic ozone hole if we continue on our present business-as-usual approach of emitting huge quantities of greenhouse gases. Humans would be wise to act forcefully to cut emissions of greenhouse gases, as the cost of inaction is highly likely to be far greater than the cost of action.
References
Manney, G.L., et al., 2011, Unprecedented Arctic ozone loss in 2011, Nature (2011), doi:10.1038/nature10556
Weather Underground Ozone Hole FAQ
World Meteorological Organization (WMO), "Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2002 Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project - Report #47", WMO, Nairobi, Kenya, 2002.
Zheng, Y., W. Gao, J.R. Slusser, R.H. Grant, C. Wang, "Yield and yield formation of field winter wheat in response to supplemental solar ultraviolet-B radiation," Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Volume 120, Issues 1-4, 24 December 2003.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Philippe. Philippe has a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds characteristic of a tropical storm nearing hurricane strength.
Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe has managed to grow a bit more organized in the face of high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with a modest amount heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear will remain high today, but is expected to relax to the moderate range on Wednesday as Philippe recurves to the northeast. This may allow Philippe to intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by several of the intensity forecast models. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.
A Florida tropical storm next week?
Recent runs by all of the computer forecast models predict that an area of low pressure will develop near Florida this weekend or early next week. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to Northeast Florida and the Georgia coast, and it is possible this storm will develop into a tropical or subtropical storm. The situation is similar to Subtropical Storm Four of October 4, 1974, according to the latest extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. That storm brought 10 - 14 inches of rain to the east coast of Florida and strong onshore winds of 30 - 40 mph that caused beach erosion and coastal flooding. The exact formation location of this weekend's storm is still in doubt, with the ECMWF and UKMET models predicting the storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico off the west coast of Florida, and the GFS model predicting formation over the Bahamas. We'll have to wait for future model runs before we can get a better handle on where and when this storm will most likely develop.
Jeff Masters
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440. necanicumwoman
6:49 PM GMT on October 08, 2011439. weatherbro
5:34 PM GMT on October 05, 2011438. weatherbro
5:33 PM GMT on October 05, 2011Well no the strongest front but as least as strong. I predict the former more around the 20-23ed.
437. aspectre
5:07 PM GMT on October 05, 2011419 Neapolitan "I'm not sure I understand your request. Is it too burdensome to simply scroll down to get to the stuff you want to see? After all, the blog entry's subject line announces that there is tropical substance; why not just skip over the parts you don't care about to get to it? When you're enjoying a newspaper or magazine, do you force yourself to read every article--even the ones that don't interest you--to get to the parts you care most about? I simply skip things that don't interest me; can you not do the same?
This may not apply to you, but it's been my experience that most times when people phrase things the way that you have--you know, referring to climate science, something about which Dr. Masters cares deeply and about which he's written frequently, as "propaganda"--they're not actually requesting that the climate-related parts of the post be moved to the bottom, but rather eliminated altogether for ideological reasons. So why not just say that in the first place?"
[NOTE: This forum has no real-time admin to delete comments. This one was deleted earlier, as many of mine and others have been recently, by a group of non-contributing members coordinating their efforts...Nevertheless, I apologize for any inconvenience.] "
Amazingly persistent at their censorship efforts, aren't they?
Even of comments that have nothing to do with ClimateChange itself. eg The exchange here is about whether Dr.Masters should censor himself on his own blog to avoid discomfiting those who don' wanna think about the possibility of man-made meteorological catastrophes.
Which makes me think that their enmity has little to do with the slant, pro-or-con, of your comments. The far more likely motive is their own perception of you as the BigMan on Campus...
...the TopGun. Hence, sniping from deep-cover.
436. hydrus
4:07 PM GMT on October 05, 2011435. weatherbro
3:57 PM GMT on October 05, 2011434. WxLogic
3:20 PM GMT on October 05, 2011433. JLPR2
2:51 PM GMT on October 05, 2011432. AussieStorm
2:44 PM GMT on October 05, 2011Goodnight all
431. islander101010
2:38 PM GMT on October 05, 2011430. fuzzy3456
2:35 PM GMT on October 05, 2011there sorry lol
429. fuzzy3456
2:35 PM GMT on October 05, 2011428. entrelac
2:32 PM GMT on October 05, 2011This mess is getting totally ridiculous and is making the comment section nearly unreadable.
427. AussieStorm
2:29 PM GMT on October 05, 2011I've been past the US Embassy a number of times and to see it like that is just jaw dropping.
This is what it normally looks.
Compared to.....
I must note, The US Embassy site is right on Manila Bay.
426. aspectre
2:17 PM GMT on October 05, 201124.5n60.6w, 25.0n61.2w are now the most recent positions
Starting 4Oct_12pmGMT and ending 5Oct_12pmGMT
The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormPhillippe's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 5Oct_12pmGMT,
the coastline blob at 33.488n79.08w-MYR is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 5Oct_6amGMT*mapping
and the coastline blob at 39.201n74.651w-26N is the same for the 5Oct_12amGMT*mapping.
Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Phillipe's travel-speed was 8.5mph(13.7k/h) on a heading of 312.5degrees(NW)
TS.Phillipe was headed toward passage over Engelhard,NorthCarolina ~5days12hours from now
Copy&paste 39.201n74.651w-26n, 33.488n79.08w-myr, 23.8n58.8w-23.9n59.7w, 23.9n59.7w-24.3n60.2w, 24.3n60.2w-24.5n60.6w, 24.5n60.6w-25.0n61.2w, 24.5n60.6w-35.369n76.092w, 7w6 into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for 5Oct_6amGMT
* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
425. hydrus
2:12 PM GMT on October 05, 2011424. AussieStorm
2:08 PM GMT on October 05, 2011Yeah, it would be ironic.
Pics from Manila after Typhoon Pedring/Nesat.
Manila Bay walk.
US Embassy Manila.
423. hydrus
2:07 PM GMT on October 05, 2011422. hydrus
2:03 PM GMT on October 05, 2011421. AussieStorm
1:57 PM GMT on October 05, 2011Geez, you guys can't get a break :-(
420. AussieStorm
1:55 PM GMT on October 05, 2011Is this from your comment from last night? What number was it, I'll read back :-)
Are you talking about the one in the NE ATL or in the GOM?
419. Neapolitan
1:53 PM GMT on October 05, 2011I'm not sure I understand your request. Is it too burdensome to simply scroll down to get to the stuff you want to see? After all, the blog entry's subject line announces that there is tropical substance; why not just skip over the parts you don't care about to get to it? When you're enjoying a newspaper or magazine, do you force yourself to read every article--even the ones that don't interest you--to get to the parts you care most about? I simply skip things that don't interest me; can you not do the same?
This may not apply to you, but it's been my experience that most times when people phrase things the way that you have--you know, referring to climate science, something about which Dr. Masters cares deeply and about which he's written frequently, as "propaganda"--they're not actually requesting that the climate-related parts of the post be moved to the bottom, but rather eliminated altogether for ideological reasons. So why not just say that in the first place?
Best Regards,
Jim
[NOTE: this forum has no real-time admin to delete comments. This one was deleted earlier, as many of mine and others have been recently, by a group of non-contributing members coordinating their efforts on another website. It's pretty pathetic, but to be expected; many were banned from here for such childish acts. Nevertheless, I apologize for any inconvenience.]
418. RitaEvac
1:53 PM GMT on October 05, 2011Almost exactly to the date of the devastating Bastrop Complex Fire which burned 1649 homes, a new fire started yesterday about 3 miles north of the northern end of the previous fire along FM 2336 near Camp Swift. The fire has burned 1,000 acres since yesterday afternoon requiring an evacuation of 30 homes and is 25% contained
417. hydrus
1:51 PM GMT on October 05, 2011416. Tazmanian
1:48 PM GMT on October 05, 2011they dont have to do any thing 1st been like this for years
415. RitaEvac
1:46 PM GMT on October 05, 2011414. Neapolitan
1:42 PM GMT on October 05, 2011I'm not sure I understand your request. Is it too burdensome to simply scroll down to get to the stuff you want to see? After all, the blog entry's subject line announces that there is tropical substance; why not just skip over the parts you don't care about to get to it? When you're enjoying a newspaper or magazine, do you force yourself to read every article--even the ones that don't interest you--to get to the parts you care most about? I simply skip things that don't interest me; can you not do the same?
This may not apply to you, but it's been my experience that most times when people phrase things the way that you have--you know, referring to climate science, something about which Dr. Masters cares deeply and about which he's written frequently, as "propaganda"--they're not actually requesting that the climate-related parts of the post be moved to the bottom, but rather eliminated altogether for ideological reasons. So why not just say that in the first place?
Best Regards,
Jim
413. RitaEvac
1:41 PM GMT on October 05, 2011lol
412. AussieStorm
1:37 PM GMT on October 05, 2011I actually agree with neo, if you don't want to read about climate change, then skip it and read the stuff you want to. I read Dr. Masters full blog, the more knowledge I have the better i can comment. Simple really.
And i neo's comment.
411. Xyrus2000
1:34 PM GMT on October 05, 2011There have been multiple mass extinction events throughout history. In fact, we're living in one right now. But I'm not sure what this has to do with the current blog post.
409. intampa
1:28 PM GMT on October 05, 2011408. rmbjoe1954
1:24 PM GMT on October 05, 2011407. Neapolitan
1:20 PM GMT on October 05, 2011I'm not sure I understand your request. Is it too burdensome to simply scroll down to get to the stuff you want to see? After all, the blog entry's subject line announces that there is tropical substance; why not just skip over the parts you don't care about to get to it? When you're enjoying a newspaper or magazine, do you force yourself to read every article--even the ones that don't interest you--to get to the parts you care most about? I simply skip things that don't interest me; can you not do the same?
This may not apply to you, but it's been my experience that most times when people phrase things the way that you have--you know, referring to climate science, something about which Dr. Masters cares deeply and about which he's written frequently, as "propaganda"--they're not actually requesting that the climate-related parts of the post be moved to the bottom, but rather eliminated altogether for ideological reasons. So why not just say that in the first place?
Best Regards,
Jim
406. KUEFC
1:16 PM GMT on October 05, 2011405. kwgirl
1:08 PM GMT on October 05, 2011404. rmbjoe1954
1:06 PM GMT on October 05, 2011GEM still depicts two storms for Florida. Yikes!
403. 7544
1:03 PM GMT on October 05, 2011Link
402. vinotinto
12:25 PM GMT on October 05, 2011Best Regards,
Michael
401. guygee
12:20 PM GMT on October 05, 2011400. prcane4you
12:08 PM GMT on October 05, 2011399. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:08 PM GMT on October 05, 2011398. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:06 PM GMT on October 05, 2011Organizing nicely now, T#'s continue to rise.
397. prcane4you
12:06 PM GMT on October 05, 2011396. AussieStorm
11:59 AM GMT on October 05, 2011You got one of those too, gee, and I thought it was only sent to me. Also get others too but mentioning them I might get a 24hr ban. lol
Philippe
395. mcluvincane
11:54 AM GMT on October 05, 2011GFS 144 hrs
394. MahFL
11:54 AM GMT on October 05, 2011I got one from a nice Nigerian Prince !...lucky me !
393. DDR
11:53 AM GMT on October 05, 2011392. WxLogic
11:51 AM GMT on October 05, 2011Aussie... not bad over here. My station reporting 62F outside (good for the energy bill!!!). WND out of the NE and SPD starting to pick up little by little and Partly Cloudy with moisture starting to creep up again.
391. AussieStorm
11:49 AM GMT on October 05, 2011Well you ain't missed much, except all the trolls and the bans.
Where did ya disappear to?
390. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:49 AM GMT on October 05, 2011