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An Ifop poll released by Le Figaro on Friday placed far-right Front National (FN) leader Marine Le Pen ahead of President François Hollande in a hypothetical second round runoff. It is the first time the FN tops a presidential poll against one of France’s two main parties, the Socialist Party (PS) and the centre-right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP).
Ifop @Le_Figaro poll: Le Pen ahead in all I round scenarios, for the first time ahead against Hollande in II round pic.twitter.com/MXbUnl9l8e
— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) September 5, 2014
This poll comes off the back of May’s European Parliament elections where the FN, for the first time ever in a nationwide vote, emerged as the largest party with 25%.
The Le Pen poll matters
France isn’t of course due a presidential election until 2017, and if a vote took place today, despite the UMP’s judicial challenges and apparent inability in finding a new leader, Hollande would unlikely reach a second round.
This important caveat to one side, the Le Pen poll is significant. There has long been an unwritten rule in French politics: the supporters of the two main parties have historically coalesced against FN candidates in second round votes. The clearest example in 2002’s presidential election when Jacques Chirac defeated Jean-Marie Le Pen 82-18%.
Poll after poll this tacit agreement appears to be coming less. This matters. While as things stand a Le Pen presidency is unthinkable, the FN is making breakthroughs that few would have predicted. In local elections held earlier this year, the party achieved its best result ever - despite running in a fraction of the 36,680 municipalities, the FN won more than 1,500 councillors and 12 cities, reached a record 229 second round runoffs (from less than 600 lists presented). Le Pen’s party also made significant inroads into many larger cities, winning about 30% of the vote in Marseille.
In parallel to the FN’s growing support, the popularity of President Hollande has reached a new record low. Less than 20% of voters now approve of the president.
The president has been unable to get economic growth up and unemployment down, a pledge on which he bet his presidency. According to TNS polls, Hollande is the most unpopular president of the Fifth Republic.
Even more worryingly for the Hollande camp is the loss of support among socialist voters. According to recent polls, nearly one-in-two no longer approve of the president. Figures released by the Journal du Dimanche on Sunday found that 85% of French voters don’t think Hollande should seek a second term - Georges Pompidou (who died in office) aside, this is unprecedented.
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