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The claim by Sir Ian Wood, a leading Scottish oil executive, that Alex Salmond has hugely exaggerated Scotland's oil wealth has frustrated supporters of independence and delighted the no camp ahead of next month's referendum.
Nonetheless, his intervention this week underscores a puzzling point: oil should be a crucial factor in weighing up how Scots vote on 18 September, but the scale and longevity of the country's fossil fuel wealth remains a matter of debate.
Wood, the billionaire founder of Wood Group, the Aberdeen-based oil services company, would be expected to have a reliable grasp of the real figures and has just completed a review for the UK government on how to maximise the remainder of Britain's oil reserves.
The Scottish National party has repeatedly predicted that the amount of UK North Sea oil and gas reserves, of which about 91% are located in Scottish waters according to the SNP, amounts to 24bn barrels of oil equivalents. Based on this number, Alex Salmond has talked of £1.5tn of value that could be used to create jobs, tax returns and other benefits to the people of a newly independent Scotland.
Wood said on Wednesday, however, that the "best outcome" would be between 15bn and 16.5bn barrels and that would depend on a new government in Holyrood offering more generous tax terms to oil explorers. The respected industrialist argued that rather than the £7bn worth of tax a year that the SNP expected, the true figure was more likely to be £5bn. Alistair Darling, the former Labour chancellor and head of the pro-union Better Together campaign, said Wood's analysis "blows apart Alex Salmond's plans for funding schools and hospitals".
The picture on oil wealth has already been made more cloudy by figures just released by the Scottish government itself showing that the North Sea tax take for 2013-14 was £4bn, half the level anticipated by the SNP. Meanwhile, the Office for Budget Responsibility has predicted recoverable reserves at 10bn barrels and forecast North Sea revenues of £61.6bn between 2013-14 and 2040-41. The Office for National Statistics had earlier estimated the value of untapped reserves to the UK Treasury to be closer to £120bn.
And yet as recently as this week a Scottish business thinktank, N-56, said the figure could be as high as £365bn, if a series of new policy recommendations were implemented. Amid such confusion, voters may struggle to base their decision on the oil question next month.
Salmond, a former oil economist himself, batted away challenges from his political opponents at parliamentary question time in Edinburgh about the Wood analysis. He insisted that the 24bn was a "robust figure" supported by many others in the oil and gas industry.
But even the SNP admits that the 24bn "encompasses proven, probable and possible reserves … as well as further exploration". The party has also admitted its £1.5tn financial benefits figure is dependent on oil prices remaining above $100 (£60) a barrel.
Sceptics use these caveats to warn of uncertainties and variables in the SNP's case. But there is also the issue of how much of that extra wealth is retained by Scotland. Research by the Guardian has shown that oil – like financial services, whisky and other business sectors in Scotland – is dominated by companies with headquarters outside the country.
But oil and gas reserve figures are notoriously slippery themselves. Whether operators can exploit 10bn, 15bn or 24bn barrels will depend on a wide range of factors, from geology to tax to currency exchange rates to an ever-changing oil price. Many of these factors are outside Scotland's control.
John Busby, an independent energy consultant, argues that the barrel of oil equivalent numbers used by the SNP and others are largely meaningless. "The only value is really attached to recoverable reserves – oil or gas that can definitely be got out economically. Those are the only numbers that are recognised [when assessing oil company values] by the Securities and Exchange Commission in the US."
He points out that BP, in its annual statistical review, puts the amount of recoverable reserves in Britain at 3bn barrels and says the fast rundown of oil and gas output suggests there is a problem looming for the UK, never mind Scotland. In his words: "We are in a pickle."
The main thrust of the Wood review into future oil revenues was how to halt the decline in North Sea production. On Thursday Wood went further, telling the website Energy Voice that it would be only 15 years before a calamitous drop-off in hydrocarbon wealth hit the UK.
the SNP tried to turn the oil debate in favour of the independence camp by releasing a document highlighting the way past revenues had been frittered away by the UK government rather than spent on building a fund to benefit future generations – as Norway had done.
Fergus Ewing, Scotland's energy minister, said: "By grabbing the independence opportunity next month we can emulate Norway's example, instead of putting up with yet more mismanagement and poor stewardship of this vital resource." The scale of that resource will still be a subject of debate come 18 September.
Scotland's energy wealth: the competing figures
On 18 September voters who are asked the question "Should Scotland be an independent country?" will struggle to base their answer on the scale of the country's oil and gas wealth. It is an important factor in judging the strength of an independent Scottish economy, but there are differing figures over the scale and longevity of that wealth. They are:
• The Office of Budget Responsibility, the advisory public body established by the UK government to provide "independent" economic advice, believes there are 10bn barrels of oil or gas reserves left on the UK continental shelf, predominantly within Scottish waters.
• Sir Ian Wood, founder and former chairman of the Aberdeen-based global oil services firm Wood Group, believes that there are more likely to be between 15bn and 16.5bn barrels.
• The Scottish National Party, using information provided by leading petroleum economist Alex Kemp from Aberdeen University, argues there are 24bn barrels in place in the North Sea.
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