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One of these decades, the size of BP's final bill for the Deepwater Horizon disaster of 2010 may become clear. In the meantime, weary shareholders – who include almost everyone in the UK saving for retirement via a company pension – will reflect that the running total only ever seems to go up, despite constant expressions of confidence from the boardroom that this time the corporate lawyers really are sure of the strength of their case.
The company will appeal against the ruling in the US district court that it was guilty of "gross" negligence for the accident that killed 11 people and caused 2.5m or 4.2m barrels of oil (that's another dispute) to spill into the Gulf of Mexico.
On that word "gross" could hang about $15bn (£9bn). BP had made a provision of $3.5bn for simple negligence, but the gross variety could take the penalty to almost $18bn under the clean water act if the number of spilled barrels is indeed shown to be 4.2m. There is no point in trying to guess whether BP's appeal will succeed. All one can say is that Thursday's £5bn fall in BP's stock market value fairly reflects the increased legal risks: this ruling is a serious setback.
It is little consolation for investors that the snap reaction from the City said that, even in the event of $18bn liability, BP's dividend is safe at current levels. It's what the dividend could have been that's more financially relevant. For context, BP's dividend distribution is about $6bn a year currently – an $18bn bill, even if it arrives after several more years of courtroom fighting, must be paid from shareholders' pockets.
Is there any good news for BP investors to contemplate? Well, no, that big stake in Rosneft, the Kremlin's pet oil firm, now looks another outsized risk.
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