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Earlier this week we published a series of maps using Ipsos MORI data showing the level of support for a yes vote in major cities in Scotland.
Now, here’s a look at the picture across Scotland:
The Scottish independence referendum, according to this data, remains too close to call – but the yes camp still have plenty of work to do. Although the map shows a prevalence of blue and lighter purple across the country, in urban centres with greater numbers of voters the redder hues are concentrated. Remember that this is a poll in which every vote counts, with the entire country acting like a giant marginal constituency.
This is especially the case around the west of Scotland, including Glasgow, and Aberdeen, although Dundee does not appear to be a consistently pro-independence as has been reported.
Despite expectations that the islands, which feel just as distant from Holyrood as they do from Westminster, will vote no there are odd patches of brighter red around Stornoway and to the north of the Shetland mainland. A swathe of 48-56% yes runs across the Highlands from Ullapool to Dingwall. Someone on the yes side has been campaigning diligently around the Moray town of Fochabers.
The borders are stoically pro-union, with Dumfries and Galloway still swithering around the 40-48% yes mark. Edinburgh is likewise pretty solidly no, although there is a glimmer of hope for the yes side around Dalkeith in Midlothian.
Talk of an east/west split over the referendum seems premature now that the graphic extends beyond the Glasgow/Edinburgh divide.
As a reminder, the map indicates geographical variation in the level of support for a yes vote using data aggregated from polls carried out by Ipsos MORI Scotland between June 2013 through to August 2014. Datazone-level estimates (each datazone is c300 households) are then derived using the relationship between voting intention and the ONS area classification.
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