Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2014
September 11 marks the halfway point of the Atlantic hurricane season (based on the past 100 years of data, 1914-2013)--and we're doing much better than usual so far. Only four named storms have formed, with three becoming hurricanes (and no major hurricanes.) An average Atlantic hurricane season has 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane by the mid-point of the season. The four storms so far in 2014 have inflicted much less punishment than usual for half of a hurricane season. Hurricane Arthur made landfall in North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane then blasted the Maritime Provinces of Canada as a powerful hurricane-force extratropical storm, but damage was low by Category 2 hurricane standards--just $14 million, with most of the damage occurring in Canada. Hurricane Bertha caused two deaths along the U.S. East Coast due to rough surf and strong rip currents, but did insignificant damage as it recurved out to sea, just off the coast. Hurricane Cristobal also did minimal damage, but killed a total of seven people--three swimmers in the U.S., and flood victims in Haiti (2), the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical Storm Dolly, which made landfall in northeastern Mexico on September 2 with 50 mph winds and torrential rains, killed one person and did millions in damage. Residents of Hurricane Alley shouldn't assume the rest of the season will end with a whimper, though. All it takes is one bad hurricane to make a ruinous hurricane season. Recall that 2012's worst storm--Hurricane Sandy--didn't occur until the third week of October!
Bahamas disturbance 92L struggling to develop
A small area of low pressure over the Northwest Bahamas (Invest 92L) has become more organized since Wednesday, but has limited heavy thunderstorm activity. Long range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that 92L has low-level spiral bands with a good degree of rotation, and satellite loops show that a small surface circulation has developed. However, strong upper level winds out of the north-northeast are creating a high 20 - 25 knots of wind shear, and the atmosphere is quite dry to the north, making development of 92L unlikely today and Friday. The current westwards 5 - 10 mph motion of 92L will carry the disturbance over Florida on Friday, and the storm should emerge over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 30°C (86°F) over the Eastern Gulf, but the presence of dry air and high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots should keep any development of 92L over the Gulf of Mexico slow. The disturbance will likely bring rains of 1 - 3" to much of Florida through Sunday. One of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET model, does develop 92L over the Gulf of Mexico. In their 2 pm EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day odd of development odds of 30% and 30%, respectively.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Invest 92L off the coast of Florida, taken at approximately 11:30 am EDT Thursday September 11, 2014. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Central Atlantic Tropical Depression Six not a threat to land
Tropical Depression Six has formed in the Central Atlantic about 750 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, and is headed northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite images show TD 6 has a moderate amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, and these thunderstorms are becoming more organized. The disturbance is embedded in a moderately moist air mass, has marginally warm (SSTs) of 27°C (81°F) beneath it, and is experiencing light wind shear. These conditions favor continued development. The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain light to moderate (5 - 20 knots) and the atmosphere at mid-levels of the atmosphere (between 500 - 700 mb) would remain moderately moist this week, favoring development. TD 6 does not appear to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, U.S. East Coast, or Bermuda. It remains to be seen if TD 6 will be a threat to the Canadian Maritime Provinces late next week.
Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Tropical Depression Six.
Flood threat to Mexico from Tropical Storm Odile diminishes
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Odile formed on Wednesday morning a few hundred miles southwest of Acapulco. Satellite loops show that Odile has a large area of heavy thunderstorms that are slowly organizing, but the heavy rains of the storm are remaining just offshore of the Pacific coast of Mexico. If Odile follows the current projections from our two top track models, the GFS and European, these rains will remain offshore as the storm moves northwest, parallel to the coast. If the storm deviates to the right of its expected path, it will be capable of dumping 5 - 10" of rain along the coast from Acapulco to Puerto Vallarta.
Why has the Eastern Pacific been so active?
It's been a remarkably active hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific; Odile's formation gives the basin 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes so far this year. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year, with about 2/3 of that activity occurring by September 9. Since July, the Eastern Pacific has had ocean temperatures about 0.6°C (1°F) above average and wind shear about 20% below average. The region has been dominated by moist, rising air and low pressure, leading to above average vertical instability. All of these factors are favorable for an active hurricane season. The Atlantic and Eastern Pacific are usually out of phase with their hurricane seasons--when one is active, the other is inactive. This occurs because when the large-scale atmospheric circulation favors rising air and low pressure over one ocean basin, there must be high pressure and dry, sinking air elsewhere to compensate--which typically occurs over the neighboring ocean basin, suppressing hurricane activity there.
Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the Eastern Pacific in 2014 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) SSTs have been up to 0.6°C (1°F) above average during the summer, increasing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.
Figure 4. Vertical wind shear (in knots) over the Eastern Pacific in 2014 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) Wind shear has been about 20% below average during the summer, increasing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.
Figure 5. Vertical instability over the Eastern Pacific in 2014 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been higher than average during most of the summer, increasing the potential for tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.
Tropical Depression 15 forms east of the Philippines
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Depression Fifteen is organizing in the waters east of the Philippines, and is on course to intensify into a typhoon and potentially affect the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Sunday. TD 15 will then potentially impact China early next week.
Twenty-five years ago on this date
On September 11, 1989, Tropical Depression Twelve continued to grow more organized, building a large region of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Two hooking spiral bands formed, prompting the National Hurricane Center to upgrade the depression to a tropical storm in their 11 am advisory. The new storm's name: Hugo. Tropical Storm Hugo headed westward across the open Atlantic at 20 mph, still four days from the Lesser Antilles Islands.
That day at NOAA's Miami-based Office of Aircraft Operations--the hurricane hunting division of NOAA--I joked with my colleagues about the fearsome new storm with the same name as the director of NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Marine Laboratory (AOML), Hugo Bezdek. AOML housed the offices of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, whose scientists would decide whether or not our hurricane hunting group would intercept the new storm once it got close enough to the Lesser Antilles Islands. Even if Hugo was a dud, we figured we'd be flying the storm for sure, since it shared the same first name as the big boss of the hurricane research scientists. We did not suspect at all that this storm named Hugo would go on to be the most destructive hurricane ever seen in the Atlantic.
Figure 6. AVHRR visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Hugo taken on September 11, 1989. Image credit: Google Earth rendition of the NOAA HURSAT data base.
Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has a more detailed look at 92L and the rest of the tropics in his latest post.
Jeff Masters
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1034. AtHomeInTX
6:28 AM GMT on September 12, 2014SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FAR SW GULF AND WILL MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY. A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER
TODAY WITH WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG IT IN THE SW GULF. FRESH
TO STRONG E-SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL BE TO THE E OF THE
TROUGH PRIOR TO IT MOVING INLAND SAT NIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRES CURRENTLY E-NE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE W-SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH LATER TODAY...THEN INTO THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF
THEREAFTER. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE LOW INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND BY MON NIGHT OR TUE.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM NE GEORGIA TO
S CENTRAL TEXAS WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS LATER
TODAY...STALLING OUT EITHER JUST OFFSHORE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OR
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
1033. KoritheMan
6:26 AM GMT on September 12, 20142014 does.
1032. yankees440
6:18 AM GMT on September 12, 2014West wind 5-10kt's here in Deerfield Beach (about 20 min north of Ft. Lauderdale)
P.S. - Plenty of lightning with a few rumbles of thunder
1031. NCHurricane2009
6:14 AM GMT on September 12, 20141030. flsky
6:08 AM GMT on September 12, 20141029. RGVtropicalWx13
6:01 AM GMT on September 12, 2014For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Edouard, located about a thousand miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity is currently limited in association with an area of low pressure located about 70 miles east-northeast of West Palm Beach, Florida. Strong upper-level winds and interaction with the Florida peninsula will likely inhibit development of this system today while it moves slowly west- southwestward across the southern Florida peninsula. Once the low moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend while the system moves westward at around 10 mph. Regardless of development, this low will bring locally heavy rains to portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys through today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2. A tropical wave located south of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph. After that time, conditions over the central tropical Atlantic are expected to be unfavorable for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Edouard are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
Forecaster Brennan
1028. wxhatt
6:01 AM GMT on September 12, 20141027. KoritheMan
5:59 AM GMT on September 12, 2014dude everybody uses imgur
it's like...
omg
1026. NCHurricane2009
5:58 AM GMT on September 12, 2014Thanks to you...I was able to finish my blog update on Edouard...92L...and the eastern Atlantic tropical wave. Man imgur is far far far better than Photobucket which I will never use again from this day forward.
1025. KoritheMan
5:53 AM GMT on September 12, 2014Imgur...?
1024. AtHomeInTX
5:43 AM GMT on September 12, 2014PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: NON-12Z ECMWF FOR THE INITIAL
WAVE...THEREAFTER THE 00Z GFS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE
UNDERNEATH A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL BE A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MIGRATING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOWARD FAR
EASTERN MEXICO/EXTREME SOUTH TX. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 12Z
ECMWF SUITE...ALL MODELS SHOW ENERGY MOVING TOWARD EASTERN MEXICO
LATE FRIDAY. LATER ON...ANOTHER DEFINED WAVE WILL APPROACH A
SIMILAR REGION WITH THE 12Z UKMET BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
ITS SOLUTION CARRYING A WELL DEFINED IMPULSE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.
OVERALL...WOULD PREFER TO NOT USE THE 12Z ECMWF EARLY ON AS IT
LACKS AN INITIAL WAVE WHICH IS SHOWN IN ALL OF THE MODELS. THIS
LEADS TO LARGE SCALE DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF DISTRIBUTION INLAND.
THEREAFTER...WILL LEAN ON THE 00Z GFS AS IT SEEMS TO PROVIDE A
SOLUTION CONSISTENT WITH THE MEANS. CONFIDENCE WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY PRESENT.
...EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING FROM SOUTH FL TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...
PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
A PRONOUNCED EASTERLY WAVE WILL MIGRATE FROM SOUTH FL TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NCEP GUIDANCE
IS A TAD FASTER WITH THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE 12Z CMC INDICATES A
MORE DEVELOPED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 12Z CMC BECOMES
RATHER OUTLYING AS IT LIFTS A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. EVENTUALLY THE 12Z ECMWF CATCHES UP TO
THE INITIALLY QUICKER 00Z NAM. WILL COMBINE THESE TWO SOLUTIONS
FOR NOW PENDING ADDITIONAL 00Z GUIDANCE.
1023. VAbeachhurricanes
5:43 AM GMT on September 12, 2014imgur, best pic hosting site out there
1022. NCHurricane2009
5:40 AM GMT on September 12, 2014Phtobucket is the WORST WEBSITE I HAVE EVER USED....every time I upload photos its super glitchy...takes WAY too long (which causes me an extra hour in making blog updates)...and I can't take it anymore. Is their any other site where you can store images?
P.S...problem with using Wunderground is you have to wait for images to get approved....
1021. rasputin32327
5:40 AM GMT on September 12, 20141020. AtHomeInTX
5:39 AM GMT on September 12, 2014Hope you can get the rain you and your lakes need. I'm hoping something comes your way! Looks like the middle of the state has missed out most. Been down right drippy here this summer. lol. and though this should be normal it seems like a long time since it was.
1019. KoritheMan
5:37 AM GMT on September 12, 2014We'll see what it does in the marginal Gulf.
1018. AtHomeInTX
5:33 AM GMT on September 12, 2014Yeah, as usual, I have no idea. :)
1017. Dakster
5:29 AM GMT on September 12, 2014Good to know and good for you. This storm might bring much needed relief.
1016. Dakster
5:28 AM GMT on September 12, 20141015. redwagon
5:28 AM GMT on September 12, 2014More moisture all around for everybody, and with Summer sun gone and not evaping it off, maybe we can retain it.
1014. KoritheMan
5:25 AM GMT on September 12, 2014Honestly, anywhere along the Gulf Coast could be at risk. I have a hard time buying a solution east of Pensacola and south of Corpus Christi, though.
1013. AtHomeInTX
5:21 AM GMT on September 12, 2014Well, the CMC takes it into central Louisiana now before slamming on the brakes and heading east. Ya never know...
1012. AtHomeInTX
5:19 AM GMT on September 12, 2014Yeah, a lot of Texas got more rain this summer than in the last few years combined. As you said it's either all or nothing when it does come. Looks like the BOC keeps wanting to send moisture to Texas. Let's hope the rains get to those who still need them. We're actually good here.
1011. KoritheMan
5:17 AM GMT on September 12, 2014The pattern already shows a return to more normal synoptic pressure patterns this year. Any other year and I would've said 92L would have recurved in its current position, even if it was literally over the Florida coast.
If conditions were a little more favorable, we would have very likely already had a hurricane or two on the US. A lot less troughing this year.
1010. KoritheMan
5:15 AM GMT on September 12, 2014Too bad I can't objectively do that right now. :(
1009. AtHomeInTX
5:12 AM GMT on September 12, 2014Yeah, I was thinking over the mainland of Florida. I think The 1900 Galveston storm got real close to the keys. I'm sure it impacted them.
1008. redwagon
5:01 AM GMT on September 12, 2014Texas Death Ridge never really got a foothold here this summer. Ridges built up and slid off, and it was hot in August, but nothing like the 60-day-long infernos we're accustomed to since 2011 that zapped Don while still offshore.
1007. yankees440
4:59 AM GMT on September 12, 2014Looks to be reforming over the same area (or training)?
I'm going to take a drive and see if there is any flooding locally...Be back in 30min or so with updates
1006. Jedkins01
4:56 AM GMT on September 12, 2014Yeah this weak little low has some efficient rain producers due to the very deep moisture, I was looking at some of the rain reports and they are higher than I would have thought, some places have had 1 to 1.25 in places that I would have thought would have had maybe 0.25 tops.
You could end up getting a lot with it moving that slow.
1005. 12george1
4:51 AM GMT on September 12, 2014The 1919 Florida Keys hurricane did too. Not sure if there are any others.
1004. hurricane23
4:46 AM GMT on September 12, 2014L-U-C-K... eventually will end.
1003. Dakster
4:44 AM GMT on September 12, 20141002. yankees440
4:43 AM GMT on September 12, 2014South Florida Radar
Link
1001. Jedkins01
4:40 AM GMT on September 12, 2014Yeah, it could be, backdoor fronts and their split flow are weird.
1000. redwagon
4:38 AM GMT on September 12, 2014It really looks -this time!- that a system is trying to jump over into the BOC from EPAC. We go from moisture avoiding us like the plague to incoming from N, S, E AND W!
999. AtHomeInTX
4:30 AM GMT on September 12, 2014You could be right. Never thought of that before.
998. GTstormChaserCaleb
4:26 AM GMT on September 12, 2014997. Jedkins01
4:23 AM GMT on September 12, 2014No I don't think there will be dry air moving into WPB tomorrow, shear may minimize convection, but that's rather risky for him to call for a dry day, as while there may be less rain due to the strong northerly shear interrupting convective focus by the low, PW's are over 2 inches over the Bahamas, and it would only take some nice low level convergence of winds near the coast to change things in a hurry rain wise because of the moisture.
Upper air analysis, satellite data, and model data all shows deep moisture over south Florida including WPB tomorrow, not sure where hes getting is info from, no offense to him lol.
000
FXUS62 KMFL 120126
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
926 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATES. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM NHC.
EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL MOVING ACROSS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN HIGH INHIBITING
ITS DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH IT HOWEVER REMAINS
VERY MOIST WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, EVEN THOUGH THERE
APPEARS TO BE WANING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME SHOWER AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF KEEPS A TROUGH AXIS
LINGERING OVER THE REGION EXTENDING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE SYSTEM QUICKLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF...WITH A RETURN OF THE DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SO RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY...AND THEN COME DOWN A LITTLE ON
SUNDAY.
996. Abacosurf
4:17 AM GMT on September 12, 2014995. Jedkins01
4:16 AM GMT on September 12, 2014994. AtHomeInTX
4:16 AM GMT on September 12, 2014Lol. Yep. There were some that came close. And the people in Brownsville probably didn't care if those made landfall in Texas or not. Rita did not make landfall in Texas either. But she sure plowed right through here.
993. hurricanes2018
4:14 AM GMT on September 12, 2014NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.
.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS COME OUT OF AFRICA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 14N20W TO 05N20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-
13N BETWEEN 21W-24W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGH AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE.
992. hurricanes2018
4:13 AM GMT on September 12, 2014NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS
LOCATED AT 17N38W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB
AND IT IS MOVING NW AT AROUND 13 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
BECOMING ORGANIZED...WITH INCREASING CONVECTION BANDING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NW OF THE CENTER FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 38W-41W.
OUTER BANDS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
BETWEEN 150NM AND 300NM OF THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. MORE
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THEREFORE
THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 FOR MORE DETAILS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS COME OUT OF AFRICA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 14N20W TO 05N20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-
13N BETWEEN 21W-24W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGH AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE.
991. Webberweather53
4:10 AM GMT on September 12, 2014Technically, if we don't want to be too picky, there were 2 other storms that made the trip across FL and nearly into Texas...
Hurricane Five (1933)
Hurricane Barry (1983)
990. hurricanes2018
4:09 AM GMT on September 12, 2014989. Pallis1
4:06 AM GMT on September 12, 2014988. AtHomeInTX
4:04 AM GMT on September 12, 2014987. scott39
4:03 AM GMT on September 12, 2014986. Pallis1
3:57 AM GMT on September 12, 2014985. AtHomeInTX
3:53 AM GMT on September 12, 2014This one. Which was just an odd track all the way around. All I can imagine is some giant ridge it rounded.
984. BaltimoreBrian
3:49 AM GMT on September 12, 2014"I guess the problem is that too many economists have the wrong attitude toward models. They're not Truth; they're intuition pumps, gadgets you use to clarify your story. You go badly wrong when you take them too seriously, and either forget that they're just models or reject them because the world isn't that simple."
Source, but not related to weather.