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Labour leader Ed Miliband heads to Glasgow today, with PM David Cameron in Edinburgh east. Is the choice of location purely coincidental?
Ipsos MORI has shared with us some data which suggests voting intentions in Edinburgh, Glasgow and other major cities. In many areas, Edinburgh is mostly no leaning already, suggesting Cameron may be seeking a more friendly reception than he might meet in a more obviously nationalist neighbourhood. But it means his job there today is probably not to turn people off voting no, rather than win them away from a yes vote.
Miliband meanwhile has a tougher job. Glasgow is fast emerging as one of the key battlegrounds of the referendum. Historically Labour, and according to the Ipsos MORI data, firmly leaning towards Yes, this is where Labour have to win to keep the union.
The following maps indicate geographical variation in the level of support for a yes vote using data aggregated from polls carried out by Ipsos MORI Scotland between June 2013 through to August 2014. Datazone-level estimates (each datazone is c300 households) are then derived using the relationship between voting intention and the ONS area classification.
With all the due caveats of aggregating and mapping subsamples these visuals paint an interesting picture, which reflects several trends in recent polls. Nowhere tells this story as well as Glasgow, a city, for most parts, which the Labour Party has controlled pretty much uninterrupted since the 1930s. This map grabbed from the Commons report on unemployment by constituency shows claimants in Glasgow, Edinburgh, and London.
Spot the pattern with the voting intention maps?
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