Award Abstract #0962258
A Multi-level, Agent-based Model for Identifying the Factors that Enable or Constrain International Climate Change Negotiations

NSF Org:	SES Division of Social and Economic Sciences
Initial Amendment Date:	May 6, 2010
Latest Amendment Date:	April 11, 2012
Award Number:	0962258
Award Instrument:	Continuing grant
Program Manager:	Robert E. O'Connor SES Division of Social and Economic Sciences SBE Directorate for Social, Behavioral & Economic Sciences
Start Date:	May 1, 2010
Expires:	August 31, 2013 (Estimated)
Awarded Amount to Date:	$700,000.00
Investigator(s):	Mark Borsuk mark.borsuk@dartmouth.edu (Principal Investigator)
Sponsor:	Dartmouth College OFFICE OF SPONSORED PROJECTS HANOVER, NH 03755-1404 (603)646-3007
NSF Program(s):	EXP PROG TO STIM COMP RES, DECISION RISK & MANAGEMENT SCI, POLITICAL SCIENCE
Program Reference Code(s):	0000, 9150, OTHR
Program Element Code(s):	9150, 1321, 1371

ABSTRACT

Climate change policy represents a global, collective decision-making problem unprecedented in scale and complexity. Scientific methods for evaluating international policy, however, have tended to follow two separate lines of analysis, neither of which is fully instructive for real world settings. One approach, typically referred to as Integrated Assessment Modeling, is largely pursued by economists and decision theorists and focuses on assessment of the long-term costs and benefits of various greenhouse gas reduction scenarios. A second approach originates with game theorists and focuses on evaluating international structures and conditions likely to lead to effective cooperative climate agreements. Both types of analysis rely heavily on the simplifying assumption that national economies are orchestrated by perfectly rational central planners who have the information and ability to make optimal decisions despite the presence of pervasive uncertainty about mitigation costs, climate damages, and future states of the economy. In reality, the outcome and implementation of any international climate agreement will be the net result of a complex interplay of stakeholders at multiple levels who have limited ability to make optimal decisions and have differing beliefs, power, and incentive structures. Therefore, it is likely that the existing assessment tools overlook some important factors that may enable or constrain effective climate policy formation.

This project will develop of new tool for international climate policy analysis based on agent-based modeling (ABM) that facilitates a more realistic and simultaneous treatment of the diverse forces which influence multi-party decisions. The model will represent both the international climate negotiation process, as well as the key dynamics of domestic economies relevant to energy and climate change. Some key questions to be explored with our model include: Are there patterns of innovation, adaptation, or climate damages that emerge from an ABM representation of an economy that are obscured by conventional assessments? Does an ABM that accounts for heterogeneity of beliefs and incentives at the national level and heterogeneity of power and vulnerability at the international level explain the negotiation outcomes historically observed? Does the design of effective international negotiation structures depend on the degree of heterogeneity occurring either between or within national economies?

This research will help inform stakeholders -- including citizens, interest groups, businesses, governments, and international organizations -- so that they better understand the opportunities in a globally connected network of decision makers.

PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH

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