This article was taken from the September 2012 issue of
Wired magazine. Be the first to read Wired's articles in print
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Imagine a world where banks take
into account your online reputation alongside traditional credit
ratings to determine your loan; where headhunters hire you based on
the expertise you've demonstrated on online forums such as Quora;
where your status from renting a house through Airbnb helps you
become a trusted car renter on WhipCar; where your feedback on eBay
can be used to get a head-start selling on Etsy; where traditional
business cards are replaced by profiles of your digital
trustworthiness, updated in real-time. Where reputation data
becomes the window into how we behave, what motivates us, how our
peers view us and ultimately whether we can or can't be
trusted.
Welcome to the reputation economy,
where your online history becomes more powerful than your credit
history.
The value of reputation is not a new
concept to the online world: think star ratings on Amazon,
PowerSellers on eBay or reputation levels on games such as
World of Warcraft. The difference today is our ability to
capture data from across an array of digital services. With every
trade we make, comment we leave, person we "friend", spammer we
flag or badge we earn, we leave a trail of how well we can or can't
be trusted.
An aggregated online reputation
having a real-world value holds enormous potential for sectors
where trust is fractured: banking; e-commerce, where value is
exponentially increased by knowing who someone really is;
peer-to-peer marketplaces, where a high degree of trust is
required between strangers; and where a traditional approach
based on disjointed information sources is currently inefficient,
such as recruiting.
Joel Spolsky and Jeff Atwood,
programmers and influential bloggers, saw the window of opportunity
to reinvent the way people found jobs through online reputation a
few years ago. "Traditional wikis and Q&A platforms drove me
crazy," Atwood says. If you had questions, say, on Chrome
extensions, double pointers or Tiny Pixels, "you had to wade
through endless conversations that went in every possible
direction and where no comment is more or less important than the
previous one. We realised there was a need to optimise the way
people got answers, to unearth the little gems buried among a lot
of dreck." The way to solve this seemed obvious to Atwood. "Have
people vote on the best answers, and rank answers," he
says.
In September 2008, Atwood and
Spolsky launched Stack
Overflow. A sort of Digg meets Wikipedia meets eBay, it is a
platform for programmers to post detailed technical questions and
receive answers from other programmers. "As soon as I touched
it, I was hooked," says Marc Gravell, a 33-year-old user based near
the Forest of Dean, who, with more than 315,000 points, has the
site's second-highest reputation score. Stack Overflow reports more
than 24 million unique visitors a month and around 5,500 questions
are submitted to the site every day.
Voting on and editing questions are just two ways in
which users can earn reputation points on Stack Overflow.
"Reputation is earned by convincing your peers that you know what
you are talking about," Spolsky says. "The reason why the site is
100 per cent spam-free and that around 80 per cent of all questions
get answered is entirely a function of the community. The way we do
that is as you earn more reputation points, you get more powers on
the site."
Shortly after the site launched, Atwood and Spolsky
heard that programmers were putting their Stack Overflow reputation
scores on their CVs, and headhunters were searching the platform
for developers with specific skills. "A CV tells you what schools
they went to, what companies they worked for and how well they did
on a standardised test when they were teenagers," Spolsky explains.
"But if you read the writings of someone on Stack Overflow, you
immediately know if they are a skilled programmer or not." In
February 2011, Stack Overflow launched Careers 2.0, an
invitation-only job board where companies can find skilled
programmers.
Stack Overflow demonstrates how a
person's reputation score created in one community is starting
to have value beyond the environments where it was built. By
answering questions in an expert forum, you create more
opportunities to find a better job.
Reputation information can also be used to look
forward rather than back -- for instance, using past actions to
work out the likelihood of someone honouring an agreement in the
future, which could be particularly useful in the financial
services industry. "Any kind of business based on credit has to
take into account people's ability to repay and their propensity to
pay," says Errol Damelin, founder of Wonga, the online short-term
cash lender (Wired 06.11). "Even when they are able to repay, will
they or won't they? It's a totally different question. That's when
reputation really comes into play." Wonga claims to crunch on
average 8,000 pieces of data to get a sense of how trustworthy its
applicants are.
Brett King, author of Bank 2.0 and founder of New
York-based banking startup Movenbank, founded in 2010,
agrees with Damelin. "Credit scores are a lagging indicator -- they
only look at what has happened in the past," he says. "They [credit
agencies] don't use data to look into whether your behaviour
is risky or not now."
Movenbank's goal is not just to use
technology to personalise the banking experience, but to reinvent
the traditional risk model. King spent more than 18 years working
for traditional banks and was struck by the opacity of much of the
credit assessment process. "Most banks reject around 50 per cent of
credit applications. It's a pretty strange business when you reject
half of your potential customers and don't even tell them
why."
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At the heart of Movenbank is a
concept call CRED. This takes into account an individual's
traditional credit score but also aspects such as their level of
community involvement, social reputation and trust weighting. Do
they have a good eBay rating? Do they send money peer-to-peer? It
also measures their social connectivity -- how many friends do they
have on Facebook? Who are they connected to on LinkedIn? Do they
have an influential Klout score? It combines this data, not just to
assess their risk, but to measure the potential value of the
customer. If you refer other customers from your network or pay
your bills on time, your CRED score will go up. "It's not about
your credit, but your credibility," King says.
A big question mark lies around
people's readiness to open up their social data, but King believes
consumers are willing to make a trade-off if they know how it is
going to be used and what they will gain in return. "People are
currently underusing their networks and reputation," King says. "I
want to help people to understand and build their influence and
reputation, and think of it as capital they can put to good
use."
Social scientists have long been trying to
quantify the value of reputation. In 2008, Norihiro Sadato, a
researcher at the National
Institute for Physiological Sciences in Aichi, Japan, along
with a team of colleagues, wanted to determine whether we think
about reputation and money in the same way, by mapping the neural
response to different rewards. "Although we all intuitively know
that a good reputation makes us feel good, the idea that good
reputation is a reward has long been just an assumption in social
sciences," Sadato says. "There has been no scientific
proof."
In order to prove his hypothesis,
Sadato devised an experiment: participants were told they were
playing a simple gambling game, in which one of three cards would
result in a cash payout. Using functional magnetic resonance
imaging, the researchers monitored brain activity triggered when
the subjects received a monetary reward. When the subjects returned
on the second day, they were each shown a picture of their face,
with a one-word descriptor underneath that a panel of strangers had
supposedly written about them. Some of the descriptions were
positive, such as "trustworthy", others neutral, such as "patient",
and others negative. When participants heard they had a positive
reputation, a part of the brain, the striatum, lit up.
The same part would also light up if
they had won money. As Sadato puts it: "The implication of our
study is that different types of reward are coded by the same
currency system." In other words, our brains neurologically compute
personal reputation to be as valuable as money.