projects > a gis-based decision-support tool to evaluate land management policies in south florida > work plan
Project Work PlanDepartment of Interior USGS GE PES and ENP CESIFiscal Year 2007 Study Work PlanStudy Title: A GIS-Based Decision-Support Tool to Evaluate Land Management Policies in South Florida Overview & Objective(s): The primary objective of the project is to develop an ecosystem portfolio model (EPM) for DOI resource managers to use to reconcile the need to maintain the ecological health of South Florida parks and refuges with increasing pressures for urban development. The EPM, a web-enabled Geographic Information System based decision support tool, will integrate natural science and economic information to support the Park Service's participation in local land use planning, Park-related land acquisition strategies, and related regulatory decisions. The web-based EPM will contribute to improved public understanding and awareness of the importance of protecting South Florida ecosystem functions and their socioeconomic implications. Specific Relevance to Major Unanswered Questions and Information Needs Identified: The project is designed to address the following questions and needs in the DOI Science Plan (2005):
Status: On-going project. Recent Products: 2006 Progress Report and Appendices; 2006 EPM webpage prototype; 2006 land value model results. Products: A broad based decision support tool based on the Land Use Portfolio Model (LUPM) (Bernknopf et al., 2005) will be developed. The Ecosystem Portfolio Modeler (EPM) has two components: (1) manage ecological viability of buffer lands adjacent to parks and refuges, and (2) minimize the adverse economic impacts on land values and economic externalities that affect community wealth by (a) minimizing adverse environmental impacts and (b) appropriating land, development rights, or other form of intervention. Specific applications of the EPM will be undertaken within the Greater Everglades Restoration area. GIS databases will be compiled and integrated to organize EPM inputs and outputs and to display model results in an understandable and useful way. WORK PLAN Title of Task 1: Design, Develop, and Implement the EPM Task Summary and Objectives: This task is about model design, development, and implementation. The conceptual and empirical EPM framework development, integration of the natural and socioeconomic data into the decision support framework, econometric estimation of land values, and estimation of economic impacts on communities are the elements of this task. The model is being designed to work within a web-enabled interactive GIS framework. Work to be undertaken during the proposal year and a description of the methods and procedures: The principal components of Task 1 include:
a. Refinement of the User Needs Assessment - Continue to interface with Park Service, Miami-Dade County, and stakeholders to refine user needs and stakeholder analyses. The purpose of the user needs assessment is to clarify the users' decision context, identify key ecological and economic functions within the decision context, and identify ecological/economic indicators and targets that are key to supporting the Parks' mandates. b. Development of the Decision Framework - This component captures the important relationships between conservation/ development actions and the ecological/environmental and socioeconomic endpoints of interest to decision-makers and stakeholders. This framework will be developed in terms of ecological and economic indicators within an interactive web-based GIS environment. c. Development of an Ecosystem Portfolio Model - This component will develop the conceptual framework and working model for modifying and adapting the LUPM for use in environmental and land use decisions. The conceptual EPM has 2 objectives: (1) ensure the ecological viability of parks and refuges by maintaining necessary environmental conditions in contiguous areas and appropriating land and/or development rights, and (2) protecting the social values of the communities, their built environment, and economic functions by minimizing the adverse economic impacts on land values and other factors that affect community wealth. d. Integration of Favorability Indices (joint with Task 3) - This component will integrate ecological/environmental and socioeconomic information that have been converted to quantitative indices translated from scientific studies by experts from the Park Service, USGS, Univ. of Florida, etc. for predicting the changes in ecological favorabilities, environmental attributes, and economic impacts that include prediction uncertainty estimates into the EPM. These favorability models will score existing ecological values and functions, as well as possible future states and outcomes based on current and possible future land uses. e. The working version of the EPM will include the expected value and uncertainty parameters for land use strategies for the "land bridge" between Biscayne National Park and Everglades National Park and Bird Drive Basin. It will contain the following:
Specific Task Product(s): [List and include expected delivery date(s).] Draft decision EPM framework presented to Park Service managers in January 2007. Updated framework delivered in September 2007. This draft model will be refined and integrated into the web-enabled EPM GIS environment in subsequent years. Title of Task 2: Design, populate, implement, and manage the EPM GIS Database Task Summary and Objectives: Work to be undertaken during the proposal year and a description of the methods and procedures: Changing land use (development, as well as restoration) within the land bridge separating BNP and ENP and Bird Drive Basin will alter surface and ground water quality and quantity, and affect the ecological sustainability of the protected areas. A GIS analysis allows the impact of land use changes and mitigation actions within the land bridge to be considered in the context of their effects on BNP and ENP. Estimates of multiple forcing functions (e.g., altered hydrology and nutrient inputs) originating in the land bridge will be utilized to consider probable alterations in economic and ecological value of habitat and ecosystem conditions. The principal components of Task 2 include:
Specific Task Product(s): [List and include expected delivery date(s).] GIS includes data and user interface(s) to EPM procedures and reports for ecological and economic analysis in South Florida. Delivery Date: Prototype delivered to Park Service management in January 2007 and updated product delivered in September 2007. Title of Task 3: Develop ecologic indicators/metrics and economic indices for impacts of south Florida land use Task Summary and Objectives: This task focuses on the development of ecological and environmental indicators that may respond to land use changes, and are key to decision-making. Indices and favorabilities (as affected by decisions) will be utilized to produce a representation of "values at stake" subject to meeting targets. These indicators will be ecological and economic, with targets defined usinginfluenced by/determined by stakeholder requirements and will be used to determine key ecological and economic land use favorabilities. Work to be undertaken during the proposal year and a description of the methods and procedures: The principal components of Task 1 include:
a. Development of Ecological Favorability Indices - Land use decisions (e.g., development, agriculture, preservation, restoration, or mitigation) within the Biscayne Bay/Everglades land bridge affect incoming water quality (levels of nutrients, sediments, metals, pesticides, herbicides, etc.) and quantity (the depth, timing, flow, duration of inundation, and location of waters), along with other physical impacts. Alteration of the hydrologic regime affects the environmental conditions and wildlife habitat in BNP and ENP and the water resources available to the human population. b. Development of Socioeconomic Indices - This component will integrate external forcing factors, including demographic factors; develop demographic projections; develop socioeconomic indices as estimates of land values in alternative land uses, economic externalities (other impacts on communities) associated with a land acquisition strategy. Scenarios for externalities will depend on the user/stakeholder needs assessment in task 1, projected population, ecological favorability indices, and other socioeconomic factors. c. Development of an Ecosystem Portfolio Risk Indices - This component will develop an index that measure the risk to the sustainability of the parks and refuges from different urban development patterns. These indices will be used to estimate the need for offsetting investments in land protection to balance the regional impact of urban development. Specific Task Product(s): [List and include expected delivery date(s).] Favorability indices for key ecological and economic functions, ecological indicators and targets, and potential socioeconomic outcomes are key to decision-making specific to the Biscayne Bay/Everglades land bridge and are of interest to decision-makers and stakeholders. Report to Park Service management in January 2007 and updated report in September 2007.Appendix 1: Map of Study Area |
U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey
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Last updated: 01 November, 2007 @ 02:21 PM(KP)