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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: Sep 01 - 05, 2009 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Sep 03 - 09, 2009 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Aug 26, 2009 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EDT WED AUGUST 26 2009
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 01 - 05 2009
THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN.
THE 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA,
RIDGING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA, TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA, A WEAK RIDGE IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST. VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS MOST
PROMINENT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN CONUS. YESTERDAYS 12Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION FEATURES THE STRONGEST RIDGE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WHILE THE RIDGE DEPICTED IN THE CANADIAN
MEAN SOLUTION REACHES ONLY TO COLORADO. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION
ALSO DEPICTS A WEAKER DOWNSTREAM TROUGH COMPARED TO THE EUROPEAN AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. OVERALL, YESTERDAYS 12Z THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED, THE CANADIAN IS THE LEAST AMPLIFIED, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM 00Z AND 06Z ARE IN BETWEEN. THE TREND WITHIN THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS IS FOR MORE AMPLIFICATION.
A MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT PATTERN IS THAT MOST OF THE MODELS ARE
FORECASTING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
YESTERDAYS 12Z EUROPEAN MEAN SOLUTION SPREADS THOSE ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER
CENTRAL CANADA WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CANADIAN AND US ROCKIES.
THE VARIABILITY AMONG THE OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM ALL FORECAST CENTERS IS HIGHER,
WITH ALL AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS INDICATING BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. TROUGHING NEAR
THE WEST COAST IS ONLY PRESENT IN SOME SOLUTIONS.
THE TRENDS AND RECENT ANOMALY CORRELATION SCORES ARE FACTORS IN DECIDING WHICH
MODELS TO CHOOSE FOR THE MANUAL BLEND. THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS SCORED
THE HIGHEST OVER THE MOST RECENT 60 DAYS AND THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ANALOG
CORRELATION SCORE IS THE HIGHEST TODAY, SO THOSE MODELS ARE INCLUDED IN THE
BLEND. CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY IN THE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELDS IS BELOW
AVERAGE.
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...20
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT
OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL OF THE DAY: YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5,
DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES AND THE MANUAL BLEND, THE CPC AUTO FORECAST, THE CDC
REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE SPECIFICATIONS.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
MANUAL BLEND AND FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES, THE CPC AUTO FORECAST, CPC
CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THE CDC
REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION SPECIFICATIONS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 03 - 09 2009
DURING WEEK TWO, THE GFS AND CANADIAN BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST TROUGHS
OVER WESTERN ALASKA, ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, AND WEAK TROUGHING
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS PREDICTED FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE CONUS. A WEAKNESS IN THIS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR THE GULF COAST REGION. IN GENERAL,
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS HIGH AMONG THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC, INDICATING HIGH UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG THE TOOLS IS LOW, AS WELL AS
CONSISTENCY WITH 6-10 DAY TOOLS.
ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES. WEAK POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAT BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OVER THE
NORTHEAST. IN GENERAL, THE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE WEAK, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE POSITIVE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THE VARIATION BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS IS HIGH, AND BOTH
MODELS WERE WEIGHTED EQUALLY IN THE MANUAL BLEND TO ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE SEEMINGLY OUTLIER SOLUTIONS. THE ANALOG CORRELATION SCORE OF THE GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE IS THE HIGHEST, AND THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION HAS THE
HIGHST ANOMALY CORRELATION SCORE OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS, SO THOSE TWO SOLUTIONS
WERE FEATURED HEAVILY IN THE BLEND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...AND 35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5, DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM
THE VARIA ENSEMBLES AND THE MANUAL BLEND, THE CPC AUTO FORECAST, THE CDC
REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL, AND THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE SPECIFICATIONS.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
MANUAL BLEND AND FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES, THE CPC AUTO FORECAST, CPC
CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THE CDC
REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL, AND THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION SPECIFICATIONS.
FORECASTER: MATT ROSENCRANS
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
SEPTEMBER 17
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS
PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE
MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20010831 - 19710818 - 20010824 - 19580812 - 19980826
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20010831 - 19710820 - 20010824 - 19580811 - 19820906
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 01 - 05 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 03 - 09 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO B N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA N N OHIO N B KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
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Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill,
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