Climate Change Ecological Forecasting
Overview
A goal of CSCOR's climate research is development of ecological models that lead to ecosystem forecasts. Decision makers need more complete understanding of ecosystem dynamics, structure and functional interrelationships to successfully protect our coastal and marine resources. Ecological models enable decision makers to draw conclusions for larger areas and longer periods since they allow quantitative understanding of ecosystem. The National Academy of Sciences, the National Science Board, and the President's Committee of Advisors on Science and Technology all call for improvement in the capacity of ecosystem forecasting.
Ecological Forecasts can:
- Highlight requirements for future scientific research and
monitoring priorities,
- Bring scientists and resource managers together to resolve
resource management problems,
- Predict the results from use and overuse of natural resources, and
- Improve decisions to maintain ecosystem productivity thus lessen
the impacts from extreme natural events and human activities.
Sea Level Rise and Ecological Forecasting
CSCOR current climate related projects involving understanding impacts of
climate change on coastal and marine ecosystems include three North Carolina projects studying Pamlico Sound, Core Sound, Bogue Sound, the Neuce River and surrounding
coastal counties response to sea level rise, GLOBEC and several unrelated projects.
Current Projects:
Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC)
- GLOBEC Northwest Atlantic
- GLOBEC Northeast Pacific
Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise
- Shore-Zone Modification in Response to Sea Level Rise.
Principal Investigator: Reid Corbett, East Carolina University
- Ecological Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal North Carolina Marshes. Principal Investigator: James T. Morris, University of South Carolina
- Modeling Estuarine Water level Response to Rising Water Levels. Principal Investigator: Charles Peterson
Ecological Forecasting
- Climate Change and Intertidal Risk Analysis: Forecasting the effects of climate change on the biogeography of foundation species in estuarine and rocky intertidal ecosystems (FY04-08)
- Development of an operational model for predicting the near real-time distribution and abundance of the scyphomedusae Chrysaora quinquecirra in Chesapeake Bay (FY04-06)
