Abstract
Jurgen Kropf, Sharon Strifas, and Monica Traetow (2002) "Accounting
for Business Births and Deaths in CES: Bias vs. Net Birth/Death Modeling."
The Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey, conducted monthly by
the Bureau of Labor Statistics, estimates payroll employment, hours, and
earnings. The survey originated as a quota-based sample, but currently
is transitioning to a probability-based sample. Because business births
and deaths cannot be captured in a timely manner by the CES survey, they
are accounted for by modeling. The bias adjustment factor used for the
quota sample is discussed and compared to the net birth/death model used
for the probability sample. While the latter sample uses imputation of
business deaths to account for business births, an ARIMA time series
model, or the net birth/death model, estimates the residual not
accounted for by the imputations. In contrast, the bias adjustment
factors are derived solely from a regression-adjusted mean-error model.
Although both models account for business births, the bias adjustment
factor model also accounts for other elements of non-sampling error. The
numbers derived from the net birth/death model are compared to the
results from the bias adjustment factor model.
Last Modified Date: March 19, 2003
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