Small Area Estimation of School District Child Population and
Poverty: Studying Use of IRS Income Tax Data
Jerry J. Maples and William R. Bell
KEY WORDS: Small Area Estimation, Synthetic Estimates, Poverty, School Districts
ABSTRACT
The Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) program provides estimates for selected income and
poverty statistics for states, counties, and school districts. While direct poverty estimates for school districts
were produced from the 1990 and 2000 censuses, producing updated (post-censal) estimates at the school
district level presents some challenging problems. Until recently there were no available data sources tabulated
for school districts that provided reliable, updated information related to poverty. Recent tabulations
of IRS income tax data for school districts provide potentially useful sources of updated information on the
distribution of poverty across school districts within counties. Several estimators using tabulations from the
IRS Income Tax data are developed and evaluated against the 1990 and 2000 censuses.
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