Hydrologic Outlook For Western and North Central Nebraska
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1000 AM CST FRI FEB 22 2007
...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1 FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
THIS FLOOD OUTLOOK ENCOMPASSES THE NORTH AND SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASINS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN NEBRASKA... THE FRENCHMAN CREEK IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA... PARTS OF THE LOUP AND DISMAL RIVERS IN THE SANDHILLS OF NEBRASKA... AND PORTIONS OF THE ELKHORN AND NIOBRARA BASINS IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
...SHORT TERM OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM FEBRUARY 22 TO MARCH 7...
ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS DUE TO RIVER ICE...ICE JAMS AND DEBRIS JAMS REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH MARCH 7. RIVER LEVELS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED AND FLUCTUATED ALONG THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER...ESPECIALLY NEAR LEWELLEN AND NORTH PLATTE. THIS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL COLD WEATHER OUTBREAKS CEASE.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. TOP SOIL MOISTURE IS VERY SATURATED EAST OF AINSWORTH THROUGH BROKEN BOW DUE TO WINTER SNOWFALL. SPRING FLOODING IS FAVORABLE TO OCCUR IN THIS AREA IF HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS OCCUR THIS SPRING.
...LONGER TERM OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL AND MAY...
SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCED NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THEY ARE BASED ON SOIL MOISTURE...SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AT THE TIME THE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED. OUTLOOKS FOR SNOWMELT FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE ALSO BASED ON FUTURE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS.
...CLIMATOLOGICAL REVIEW...
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAS EXPERIENCED VARYING TEMPERATURES BY THE MONTH THIS WINTER. NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE NORMAL. DECEMBER TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW NORMAL WHILE JANUARY TEMPERATURES WERE VERY NEAR NORMAL. THE FIRST THREE WEEKS OF FEBRUARY WERE INFLUENCED BY FREQUENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
PRECIPITATION FOR THE WINTER HAS ALSO VARIED BY THE MONTH WITH NOVEMBER RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...DECEMBER PRECIPITATION WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...AND JANUARY PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FEBRUARY PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY WITH MODERATE DROUGHT IN ADJACENT GARDEN AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXIST EASTWARD TO NEAR VALENTINE...NORTH PLATTE...AND HAYES CENTER. SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME ARE MOST IMPROVED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE HSA AT THIS POINT IN THE SEASON. DROUGHT CONDITIONS HOWEVER AREA EXPECTED TO WORSEN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE HSA.
MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK ACROSS THE UPPER PLATTE RIVER BASIN IN WYOMING AND COLORADO WAS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
THEREFORE... AT THIS TIME MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT RUNOFF IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FLOODING OF ANY RIVERS THIS SPRING.
...CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOK...
THE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO A NEAR NORMAL REGIME DURING THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MARCH. PRECIPITATION DURING THE 6 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL AS WELL.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS...RANGE IN THE 40S. AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S TO NEAR 30. NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN MARCH AVERAGES NEAR TWO INCHES.
THE MOST RECENT 30 AND 90 DAY OUTLOOKS FORECAST TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MARCH...APRIL...AND MAY. AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE BEGINNING OF MARCH...TO 55 TO 65 DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE OF MAY.
THE 30 TO 90 DAY OUTLOOKS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ON AVERAGE... TOTAL PRECIPITATION IN MARCH...APRIL...AND MAY...RANGES FROM 5 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAY TYPICALLY BEING THE WETTEST MONTH.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION.
...FUTURE OUTLOOKS...
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY...MARCH 7...2007.
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ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CLIMATOLOGICAL OUTLOOKS CAN BE OBTAINED AT:
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS/
FURTHER INFORMATION ON DROUGHT CONDITIONS CAN BE OBTAINED AT:
WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
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Page composition by Steve Carmel 
