February 2008 Drought Statement

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 1110 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008 ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE... SYNOPSIS A REVIEW OF THE ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE LAST 30 DAYS IS GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN IN LATE DECEMBER AND JANUARY AS WELL. THIS IS CHARACTERIZED AS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...ONE IN WHICH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN DIFFERING AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...WITH THE MOST SNOWFALL OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE VARIOUS STORM TRACKS DURING THE LAST 30 DAYS...A NORTHERN STREAM THAT HAS INTERACTED WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WHICH HAS BEEN SOUTH OF NEBRASKA. THEREFORE THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NEBRASKA HAS HAD VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE LAST 30 TO 60 DAYS. A PERSISTENT ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS ALSO AFFECTED THE AREA DURING THE LAST 30 DAYS...MOST NOTABLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS AIRMASS...IN COMBINATION WITH PERSISTENT SNOW COVER THROUGH MUCH OF FEBRUARY...HAS RESULTED IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH...BUT LACK OF SNOW COVER IN THE SOUTH HAS MEANT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS. LOCAL AREAS AFFECTED AS OF FEBRUARY 21ST ACCORDING TO THE US DROUGHT MONITOR...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXISTED WEST OF A RUSHVILLE TO ANTIOCH LINE. EAST OF THIS LINE...TO A LINE EXTENDING FROM MERRIMAN TO CHAPPELL...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXISTED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WAS ABNORMALLY DRY...WITH AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 DROUGHT FREE. CLIMATE SUMMARY VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY WITH NORTH PLATTE...BROKEN BOW...AND IMPERIAL ALL RECORDING SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. VALENTINE...HOWEVER...SAW A FEW SNOW STORMS THAT BROUGHT SOME MOISTURE...HOWEVER THEY STILL ENDED THE MONTH BELOW NORMAL. OVER THE LAST 6 MONTHS...AUGUST TO JANUARY...ONLY VALENTINE HAS RECORDED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION...NEARLY TWO INCHES. BOTH NORTH PLATTE AND BROKEN BOW HAVE HAD GREATER THAN AN INCH 6 MONTH DEFICIT...WHILE IMPERIAL HAS ONLY SEEN ABOUT HALF OF THEIR NORMAL 6 MONTH TOTAL. 6 MONTH PRECIP/INCHES LAST MONTH PRECIP/INCHES LOCATION AUG-JAN NORMAL DEP \| JAN NORMAL DEP NORTH PLATTE 4.76 6.26 -1.50 \| 0.03 0.39 -0.36 VALENTINE 8.25 6.38 +1.87 \| 0.24 0.30 -0.06 BROKEN BOW 6.56 7.65 -1.09 \| T 0.43 -0.43 IMPERIAL 3.48 6.86 -3.38 \| T 0.52 -0.52 THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WAS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN WITH EACH PASSING SYSTEM. THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALLOWED THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SAW MORE SNOWFALL AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE/DEGREE F LOCATION NOV NORMAL DEP \| DEC NORMAL DEP \| JAN NORMAL DEP NORTH PLATTE 38.4 34.6 +3.8 \| 21.0 25.7 -4.7 \| 23.2 23.2 0.0 VALENTINE 38.1 33.0 +5.1 \| 22.2 23.6 -1.4 \| 20.2 20.8 -0.6 BROKEN BOW 39.3 33.1 +6.2 \| 23.6 23.8 -0.2 \| 23.2 20.9 2.3 IMPERIAL 40.2 35.5 +4.7 \| 22.9 27.0 -4.1 \| 25.5 25.0 0.5 RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS REMAINED LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BUT REMAINED STEADY AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE RIVER BASINS. RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS LAKE LEVELS ENDING THE MONTH OF JANUARY REMAINED MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR ENDERS DAM AND LAKE MCCONAUGHY. LAKE MCCONAUGHY GAINED TWENTY FOUR THOUSAND ACRE FEET FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH TO A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 621100 ACRE FEET. THIS WAS AN INCREASE OF 1.3 PERCENT TO 35.6 PERCENT OF CAPACITY TO END THE MONTH. THIS DOES HOWEVER COMPARE TO A LAKE ELEVATION 5.6 FEET ABOVE LAST YEARS LAKE ELEVATION. ENDERS DAM RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 16900 ACRE FEET WHICH REMAINED STEADY FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH WITH 39 PERCENT OF CAPACITY. RED WILLOW DAM RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 25500 ACRE FEET. RESERVOIR CAPACITY ROSE SLIGHTLY TO 70 PERCENT. OTHER RESERVOIRS WHICH ARE SPRING FED SAW THE USUAL RESERVOIR RECHARGE. MEDICINE CREEK DAM RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 34300 ACRE FEET. RESERVOIR CAPACITY WAS NEARLY STEADY AT 96.2 PERCENT. CALAMUS RESERVOIR RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 112000 ACRE FEET. RESERVOIR CAPACITY WAS STEADY AT 88.0 PERCENT. MERRITT RESERVOIR RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 61000 ACRE FEET. RESERVOIR CAPACITY WAS STEADY AT 91.5 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE MONTH OF JANUARY...DUE TO THE ALLOTMENT OF UPSTREAM RESERVOIRS...DELIVERY OF WATER TO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BE 80 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. THEREFORE LIMITED RELEASES FOR CONSERVATION PURPOSES IS PLANNED...AS LAKE MCCONAUGHY REMAINS AT CRITICALLY LOW LAKE LEVELS GOING INTO THE IRRIGATION SEASON. FIRE DANGER IMPACTS THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS HAS ALLOWED THE SNOWPACK TO REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE OVER A MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN NIOBRARA RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE SNOW DEPTHS REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH RANGE. AS A RESULT MANY OF THE FINE FUELS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IN A READY TO BURN STATE. ANY PROLONGED WARM AND DRY PERIOD WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER. WESTERN NEBRASKA IS COMING INTO A PERIOD FROM LATE FEBRUARY INTO MARCH WHERE SNOWFALL IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED. HOWEVER THE END OF THIS TIME PERIOD INTO APRIL IS WHEN LARGE FIRES ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. IF THE STORM TRACK REMAINS OUTSIDE THE AREA...FIRE DANGER IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS. FIRE DANGER CAN BE DETERMINED THROUGH EITHER THE 10-HOUR AND 100-HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURES...OR THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI). THE KBDI INDEX IS BROKEN INTO FOUR CATEGORIES WHICH ARE USED TO DETERMINE THE SUSCEPTIBILITY OF GROUND FUELS TO FIRE DANGER. THE FOUR CATEGORIES AND A BRIEF DESCRIPTIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS: LOW...WET WITH LITTLE DANGER OF FIRE INITIATION MODERATE...DRYING OCCURRING WITH SOME FIRE DANGER HIGH...GROUND COVER DRY AND WILL BURN READILY EXTREME...DEAD AND LIVE FUELS WILL BURN READILY THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS ON THE LOW END OF THE KBDI INDEX...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SANDHILLS ARE IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY. THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS. A DAILY GRAPHIC OF THE KBDI INDEX AND DEAD FUEL MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND ON THE WILDLAND FIRE ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (WFAS) WEB SITE AT: HTTP://WWW.WFAS.US OR THE NORTH PLATTE NWS WEB SITE AT: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF/FORECASTS/FIREWX/FIREWX.PHP THE NORTH PLATTE NWS WEB SITE ALSO HAS ADDITIONAL DATA AND FORECASTS RELATED TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY INTO EARLY MARCH...THE LATEST 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS ARE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY AVERAGES BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.20 INCHES...WHICH WOULD EQUATE TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE LATEST OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN MARCH IS FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE. THE LATEST 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL AND MAY...ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT: CHRIS BUTTLER CLIMATE SERVICES FOCAL POINT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE CHRISTOPHER.BUTTLER@NOAA.GOV RELATED WEB SITES LOCAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFORMATION HTTP:://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF ADDITIONAL RIVER AND RESERVOIR INFORMATION USGS - HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV CNPPD - HTTP://CNPPD.COM/LAKE_LEVELS.HTM US DROUGHT MONITOR HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV ACKNOWLEDGMENTS THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...USGS...AND THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PUBLIC POWER AND IRRIGATION DISTRICT. NEXT ISSUANCE THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED ON THE THIRD THURSDAY OF THE MONTH. THE NEXT ISSUANCE WILL BE MARCH 20 2008.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE  
1110 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008  
   
...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLE...  
  
   
SYNOPSIS  
  
A REVIEW OF THE ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE LAST 30 DAYS  
IS GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN IN LATE DECEMBER  
AND JANUARY AS WELL. THIS IS CHARACTERIZED AS A PROGRESSIVE  
PATTERN...ONE IN WHICH SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS HAVE MOVED  
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN DIFFERING  
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA  
IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...WITH THE MOST SNOWFALL OCCURRING ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE VARIOUS STORM  
TRACKS DURING THE LAST 30 DAYS...A NORTHERN STREAM THAT HAS  
INTERACTED WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS  
OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WHICH HAS BEEN  
SOUTH OF NEBRASKA. THEREFORE THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NEBRASKA HAS  
HAD VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE LAST 30 TO 60 DAYS.  
  
A PERSISTENT ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS ALSO AFFECTED THE AREA DURING THE  
LAST 30 DAYS...MOST NOTABLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  
THIS AIRMASS...IN COMBINATION WITH PERSISTENT SNOW COVER THROUGH  
MUCH OF FEBRUARY...HAS RESULTED IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE  
NORTH...BUT LACK OF SNOW COVER IN THE SOUTH HAS MEANT TEMPERATURES  
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS.  
  
   
LOCAL AREAS AFFECTED  
  
AS OF FEBRUARY 21ST ACCORDING TO THE US DROUGHT MONITOR...SEVERE  
DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXISTED WEST OF A RUSHVILLE TO ANTIOCH LINE.  
EAST OF THIS LINE...TO A LINE EXTENDING FROM MERRIMAN TO  
CHAPPELL...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXISTED. FOR THE REMAINDER  
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WAS ABNORMALLY DRY...WITH  
AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 DROUGHT FREE.  
  
   
CLIMATE SUMMARY  
  
VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION FELL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA  
DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY WITH NORTH PLATTE...BROKEN BOW...AND  
IMPERIAL ALL RECORDING SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
VALENTINE...HOWEVER...SAW A FEW SNOW STORMS THAT BROUGHT SOME  
MOISTURE...HOWEVER THEY STILL ENDED THE MONTH BELOW NORMAL. OVER THE  
LAST 6 MONTHS...AUGUST TO JANUARY...ONLY VALENTINE HAS RECORDED ABOVE  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION...NEARLY TWO INCHES. BOTH NORTH PLATTE AND  
BROKEN BOW HAVE HAD GREATER THAN AN INCH 6 MONTH DEFICIT...WHILE  
IMPERIAL HAS ONLY SEEN ABOUT HALF OF THEIR NORMAL 6 MONTH TOTAL.  
  
               6 MONTH PRECIP/INCHES     LAST MONTH PRECIP/INCHES  
LOCATION       AUG-JAN  NORMAL   DEP   |    JAN   NORMAL   DEP  
NORTH PLATTE     4.76     6.26  -1.50  |    0.03   0.39   -0.36  
VALENTINE        8.25     6.38  +1.87  |    0.24   0.30   -0.06  
BROKEN BOW       6.56     7.65  -1.09  |       T   0.43   -0.43  
IMPERIAL         3.48     6.86  -3.38  |       T   0.52   -0.52  
  
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WAS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH  
TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATING UP AND DOWN WITH EACH PASSING SYSTEM. THE  
LACK OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA  
ALLOWED THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY TO BE AT OR  
ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA SAW MORE SNOWFALL AND BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
  
                           AVERAGE TEMPERATURE/DEGREE F  
LOCATION      NOV  NORMAL  DEP | DEC  NORMAL  DEP | JAN  NORMAL  DEP  
NORTH PLATTE  38.4  34.6  +3.8 | 21.0  25.7  -4.7 | 23.2  23.2   0.0  
VALENTINE     38.1  33.0  +5.1 | 22.2  23.6  -1.4 | 20.2  20.8  -0.6  
BROKEN BOW    39.3  33.1  +6.2 | 23.6  23.8  -0.2 | 23.2  20.9   2.3  
IMPERIAL      40.2  35.5  +4.7 | 22.9  27.0  -4.1 | 25.5  25.0   0.5  
  
   
RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS  
  
STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS REMAINED LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BUT  
REMAINED STEADY AND NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE RIVER  
BASINS.  
  
   
RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS  
  
LAKE LEVELS ENDING THE MONTH OF JANUARY REMAINED MUCH BELOW NORMAL  
FOR ENDERS DAM AND LAKE MCCONAUGHY. LAKE MCCONAUGHY GAINED TWENTY  
FOUR THOUSAND ACRE FEET FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH TO A RESERVOIR  
STORAGE OF 621100 ACRE FEET. THIS WAS AN INCREASE OF 1.3 PERCENT TO  
35.6 PERCENT OF CAPACITY TO END THE MONTH. THIS DOES HOWEVER COMPARE  
TO A LAKE ELEVATION 5.6 FEET ABOVE LAST YEARS LAKE ELEVATION. ENDERS  
DAM RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 16900 ACRE FEET WHICH REMAINED  
STEADY FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH WITH 39 PERCENT OF CAPACITY. RED  
WILLOW DAM RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 25500 ACRE FEET.  
RESERVOIR CAPACITY ROSE SLIGHTLY TO 70 PERCENT.  
  
OTHER RESERVOIRS WHICH ARE SPRING FED SAW THE USUAL RESERVOIR  
RECHARGE. MEDICINE CREEK DAM RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 34300  
ACRE FEET. RESERVOIR CAPACITY WAS NEARLY STEADY AT 96.2 PERCENT.  
CALAMUS RESERVOIR RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 112000 ACRE FEET.  
RESERVOIR CAPACITY WAS STEADY AT 88.0 PERCENT. MERRITT RESERVOIR  
RECORDED A RESERVOIR STORAGE OF 61000 ACRE FEET. RESERVOIR CAPACITY  
WAS STEADY AT 91.5 PERCENT.  
  
ALTHOUGH MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO END THE  
MONTH OF JANUARY...DUE TO THE ALLOTMENT OF UPSTREAM  
RESERVOIRS...DELIVERY OF WATER TO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM  
OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BE 80 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.  
THEREFORE LIMITED RELEASES FOR CONSERVATION PURPOSES IS PLANNED...AS  
LAKE MCCONAUGHY REMAINS AT CRITICALLY LOW LAKE LEVELS GOING INTO THE  
IRRIGATION SEASON.  
  
   
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS  
  
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS HAS  
ALLOWED THE SNOWPACK TO REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE OVER A MAJORITY OF  
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE ALONG THE  
EASTERN NIOBRARA RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE  
SNOW DEPTHS REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH RANGE. AS A RESULT MANY OF THE  
FINE FUELS ACROSS THE REGION ARE IN A READY TO BURN STATE. ANY  
PROLONGED WARM AND DRY PERIOD WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN  
FIRE DANGER. WESTERN NEBRASKA IS COMING INTO A PERIOD FROM LATE  
FEBRUARY INTO MARCH WHERE SNOWFALL IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED.  
HOWEVER THE END OF THIS TIME PERIOD INTO APRIL IS WHEN LARGE FIRES  
ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SANDHILLS. IF THE STORM TRACK  
REMAINS OUTSIDE THE AREA...FIRE DANGER IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED TO  
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS.  
  
FIRE DANGER CAN BE DETERMINED THROUGH EITHER THE 10-HOUR AND  
100-HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURES...OR THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX  
(KBDI). THE KBDI INDEX IS BROKEN INTO FOUR CATEGORIES WHICH ARE USED  
TO DETERMINE THE SUSCEPTIBILITY OF GROUND FUELS TO FIRE DANGER. THE  
FOUR CATEGORIES AND A BRIEF DESCRIPTIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS:  
  
LOW...WET WITH LITTLE DANGER OF FIRE INITIATION  
MODERATE...DRYING OCCURRING WITH SOME FIRE DANGER  
HIGH...GROUND COVER DRY AND WILL BURN READILY  
EXTREME...DEAD AND LIVE FUELS WILL BURN READILY  
  
THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS ON THE LOW END  
OF THE KBDI INDEX...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE INTO THE  
WESTERN SANDHILLS ARE IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY. THESE VALUES ARE  
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS. A DAILY GRAPHIC OF THE  
KBDI INDEX AND DEAD FUEL MOISTURE CAN BE FOUND ON THE WILDLAND FIRE  
ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (WFAS) WEB SITE AT:  
  
HTTP://WWW.WFAS.US  
  
OR THE NORTH PLATTE NWS WEB SITE AT:  
  
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF/FORECASTS/FIREWX/FIREWX.PHP  
  
THE NORTH PLATTE NWS WEB SITE ALSO HAS ADDITIONAL DATA AND FORECASTS  
RELATED TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA.  
  
   
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS  
  
FOR THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY INTO EARLY MARCH...THE LATEST 6 TO 10  
AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS ARE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE LAST WEEK OF  
FEBRUARY AVERAGES BETWEEN 0.15 AND 0.20 INCHES...WHICH WOULD EQUATE  
TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW.  
  
ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE LATEST OUTLOOK FOR  
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN MARCH IS FOR BELOW NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF  
ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE.  
  
THE LATEST 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL AND MAY...ACCORDING TO  
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND  
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  
  
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT  
THIS INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:  
  
CHRIS BUTTLER  
CLIMATE SERVICES FOCAL POINT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  
NORTH PLATTE NE  
CHRISTOPHER.BUTTLER@NOAA.GOV  
   
RELATED WEB SITES  
  
LOCAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFORMATION  
HTTP:://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF  
  
ADDITIONAL RIVER AND RESERVOIR INFORMATION  
USGS -  HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV  
CNPPD - HTTP://CNPPD.COM/LAKE_LEVELS.HTM  
  
US DROUGHT MONITOR  
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/INDEX.HTML  
  
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER  
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV  
   
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS  
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT  
INVOLVING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA  
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE  
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN  
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE  
EXTENSION SERVICES...USGS...AND THE CENTRAL NEBRASKA PUBLIC POWER  
AND IRRIGATION DISTRICT.  
   
NEXT ISSUANCE  
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED ON THE THIRD THURSDAY  
OF THE MONTH. THE NEXT ISSUANCE WILL BE MARCH 20 2008.

Page composition by Steve Carmel

NOAA National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

February 2008 Drought Statement