FGUS73 KFGF 221347 ESFFGF NDC005-027-071-131200- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND 0847 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008 ...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL... DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK VALID JULY 28, 2008 - NOVEMBER 3, 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS PROVIDING MONTHLY UPDATES OF THE LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES. THESE...AND THEIR ASSOCIATED WEB GRAPHICS...ARE VALID FOR THE PERIOD OF JULY 2008 THROUGH NOVEMBER 2008. CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE THE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS VALID 7/28/2008 - 11/3/2008 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ----------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ CREEL BAY 1446.6 1446.6 1446.6 1446.7 1446.7 1446.7 1446.7 1446.7 1446.7 STUMP LAKE 1446.6 1446.6 1446.6 1446.7 1446.7 1446.7 1446.7 1446.7 1446.7 THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY IS 1446.7 FEET THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF STUMP LAKE NEAR LAKOTA IS 1447.0 FEET ON MAY 9 OF 2006...A NEW PROVISIONAL RECORD OF 1449.20 FEET OCCURRED...BEATING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 1449.18 FEET THAT OCCURRED ON JUNE 17 OF 2004. FOR PREVIOUS HIGH WATER MARKS... SEE THE USGS FLOOD TRACKING CHARTS AT: HTTP://ND.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOODTRACKING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS NOW INCLUDING CHANCES THAT DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES WILL FALL BELOW LEVELS GIVEN IN THE PROBABILITY OF NON-EXCEEDANCE TABLE BELOW: CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES FALLING BELOW THE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS VALID 7/28/2008 - 11/3/2008 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ----------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ CREEL BAY 1446.1 1445.9 1445.9 1445.8 1445.8 1445.7 1445.7 1445.6 1445.6 STUMP LAKE 1446.1 1446.0 1445.9 1445.8 1445.8 1445.7 1445.7 1445.6 1445.6 THE NON-EXCEEDANCE VALUE FOR A LISTED PERCENTAGE IS THE VALUE WHERE THAT PERCENTAGE OF ALL MODEL CASES RUN WERE BELOW THAT LAKE LEVEL FOR THE SPECIFIED VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK THE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HIGH AND LOW LAKE LEVELS THAT WERE CALCULATED FOR THE SPECIFIED PERIOD USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 56 YEARS (1949-2004) OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA AND CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE LAKE, SNOWCOVER (IN WINTER)... AND SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, DETAILS OF THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK USED ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE WEB AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOKS_INDEX.HTML BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF LAKE LEVEL PROBABILITIES, THE AMOUNT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE PART OF NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS). THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS PROBABILITY GRAPHS OF LAKE HEIGHT FOR THE FULL PERIOD AS WELL AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES. THE OUTLOOK GRAPHICS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN INTERPRETING THESE OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE FROM... THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT: WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS CLICK ON RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK CURRENT DEVILS AND STUMP LAKE LEVELS ARE ALSO ON OUR WEB SITE. LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE FOURTH WEEK OF THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720 $$ TEAM FGF NNNN