FGUS73 KFGF 221347
ESFFGF
NDC005-027-071-131200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
0847 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
...DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...
DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
VALID JULY 28, 2008 - NOVEMBER 3, 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS PROVIDING MONTHLY UPDATES OF THE
LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES. THESE...AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED WEB GRAPHICS...ARE VALID FOR THE PERIOD OF
JULY 2008 THROUGH NOVEMBER 2008.
CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE
THE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS
VALID 7/28/2008 - 11/3/2008
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
----------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CREEL BAY 1446.6 1446.6 1446.6 1446.7 1446.7 1446.7 1446.7 1446.7 1446.7
STUMP LAKE 1446.6 1446.6 1446.6 1446.7 1446.7 1446.7 1446.7 1446.7 1446.7
THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY IS 1446.7 FEET
THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF STUMP LAKE NEAR LAKOTA IS 1447.0 FEET
ON MAY 9 OF 2006...A NEW PROVISIONAL RECORD OF 1449.20 FEET
OCCURRED...BEATING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 1449.18 FEET THAT
OCCURRED ON JUNE 17 OF 2004. FOR PREVIOUS HIGH WATER MARKS...
SEE THE USGS FLOOD TRACKING CHARTS AT:
HTTP://ND.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOODTRACKING
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS NOW INCLUDING CHANCES THAT
DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES WILL FALL BELOW LEVELS GIVEN IN THE
PROBABILITY OF NON-EXCEEDANCE TABLE BELOW:
CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES FALLING BELOW
THE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS
VALID 7/28/2008 - 11/3/2008
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
----------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CREEL BAY 1446.1 1445.9 1445.9 1445.8 1445.8 1445.7 1445.7 1445.6 1445.6
STUMP LAKE 1446.1 1446.0 1445.9 1445.8 1445.8 1445.7 1445.7 1445.6 1445.6
THE NON-EXCEEDANCE VALUE FOR A LISTED PERCENTAGE IS THE VALUE
WHERE THAT PERCENTAGE OF ALL MODEL CASES RUN WERE BELOW THAT
LAKE LEVEL FOR THE SPECIFIED VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK
THE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HIGH AND LOW LAKE
LEVELS THAT WERE CALCULATED FOR THE SPECIFIED PERIOD USING MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS FROM 56 YEARS (1949-2004) OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
DATA AND CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE LAKE, SNOWCOVER (IN WINTER)...
AND SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER, DETAILS OF THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK USED ARE AVAILABLE
FROM THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOKS_INDEX.HTML
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF LAKE LEVEL PROBABILITIES, THE
AMOUNT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE PART OF NOAA'S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES
(AHPS).
THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS PROBABILITY GRAPHS OF LAKE HEIGHT
FOR THE FULL PERIOD AS WELL AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES. THE OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN INTERPRETING THESE OUTLOOKS
ARE AVAILABLE FROM...
THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT:
WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS
CLICK ON RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK
CURRENT DEVILS AND STUMP LAKE LEVELS ARE ALSO ON OUR WEB SITE.
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE
FOURTH WEEK OF THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720
$$
TEAM FGF
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