Drought Severity Decreased for Northern Illinois and Indiana
Drought Severity Decreased for Northern Illinois & Indiana
The February 23rd release of the drought monitor indicates that drought conditions have become better in parts of northern Illinois and Indiana. January and the early part of February brought above average precipitation to the region for the first time since February 2005. This dropped the regions of extreme drought (D3) down to severe drought (D2). Even though the rain and snowfall in January and early February helped the situation, the long term deficit of precipitation is fairly substantial and a few more months of above normal precipitation will be necessary to make conditions better. The area of extreme drought conditions (D3) was eliminated due to the amount of precipitation that fell over northern Illinois. Severe drought conditions (D2) cover most northern Illinois and a very small portion of northwestern Indiana where the drought conditions improved due to the above normal precipitation. Moderate drought conditions (D1) are present for a small area in northeastern Illinois along the Wisconsin/Illinois border as well as Livingston, Kankakee, Ford and Iroquois counties in northeastern Illinois and Lake, Porter, Newton and Jasper counties in northwestern Indiana. Abnormally dry conditions (D0) are present in portions of Ford and Iroquois counties in Illinois along with southern Newton, southern Jasper and Benton counties in Indiana.
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The U.S. drought monitor is a weekly collaborative
Effort between a number of federal agencies such as:
NOAA/NWS, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the
NationalDroughtMitigationCenter.
Soil Moisture Conditions:
As of February 27th, the Midwest Regional Climate Center indicated soil moisture deficits to a depth of 72 inches ranging from zero to an inch and a half over northern and west central Illinois as well as northeastern Indiana.
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Agricultural Impacts:
Topsoil 8 percent very short, 32% short, 56% adequate, 4% surplus. Winter wheat 4% poor, 12% fair, 72% good, 12% excellent. January ended with higher than normal temperatures, increased precipitation, causing muddy field conditions. The state-averaged temperature in January was 38 degrees, 13 degrees above normal. Precipitation accumulated to 2.81 inches, almost one and a half times greater than normal. The milder temperatures, increased precipitation has caused grass, wheat fields starting to green up from dormancy. This concerns producers because of the risk of winter kill to the crop if a hard freeze develops during February. Farmers are grateful for the precipitation, but are hopeful for more to replenish the sub-soil moisture. Recent rainfall has only saturated the topsoil, many farmers tiles still are not running. Livestock producers are concerned for the short supply of hay because of last year’s drought. The mild temperatures have made excellent conditions for livestock, especially cows calving early. However, increased precipitation has caused muddy feedlots and pastures. Activities included: preparing for the 2006 crop year, hauling grain, working on taxes for 2005, taking pesticide test, machinery repair, attending commodity, livestock meetings, and caring for livestock.
Long Range Outlooks:
In the short term, a few systems will propagate out of the northwest, but for the most part they will be moisture starved and will not produce a lot of precipitation for the region. Temperatures will be right around normal for this time of year, perhaps a little lower than normal, but not by much.
March 7th thru 13th: the 8 to 14 day outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center indicates equal chances of having above normal, near normal or below normal temperatures as well as equal chances for having above normal, near normal or below normal precipitation.
The outlook for the month of March indicates equal chances of having above normal, near normal and below normal temperatures, but shows a 33 to 40% chance of having above normal amounts of precipitation for most of northeastern Illinois and all of northwestern Indiana. Additionally, the March through May 90-day outlook indicates equal chances of having above normal, near normal, and below normal temperatures, but a 33 to 40% chance of having above normal precipitation in northern Indiana as well as portions of the Illinois/Indiana border.
Climatological Summary:
Over the past 90 days (November 30th through February 27th), precipitation deficits of zero to one inch are present in portions of northeastern Illinois along Lake Michigan as well as in northwestern Indiana. A surplus of zero to one inch was observed in north central Illinois.
Here are some specific statistics for cities across the area:
|
Station
|
June
|
July
|
Aug
|
Sep
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
Jan
|
Total
June 1-Jan 31
|
Percent of Normal
|
|
Chicago O’Hare
|
0.76
|
1.95
|
2.47
|
2.66
|
1.39
|
2.31
|
1.36
|
2.78
|
15.68
|
62.9
|
|
Midway
|
1.07
|
2.07
|
1.44
|
2.68
|
1.14
|
2.10
|
1.38
|
3.48
|
15.36
|
58.8
|
|
Rockford
|
2.45
|
1.45
|
5.10
|
1.86
|
0.24
|
2.63
|
1.00
|
2.98
|
17.71
|
70.1
|
|
Romeoville
|
1.20
|
2.89
|
2.43
|
2.30
|
0.35
|
2.04
|
1.40
|
3.11
|
15.72
|
n/a*
|
|
Aurora
|
1.11
|
2.36
|
1.42
|
1.67
|
0.44
|
2.42
|
1.07
|
2.63
|
13.12
|
49.7
|
|
Dixon
|
2.31
|
3.61
|
5.64
|
5.08
|
0.66
|
2.38
|
1.10
|
3.39
|
24.17
|
95.6
|
|
Watseka
|
2.17
|
4.97
|
2.66
|
4.87
|
2.53
|
3.28
|
1.20
|
2.16
|
23.84
|
90.7
|
|
Marseilles
|
2.95
|
2.81
|
1.72
|
2.46
|
0.46
|
2.76
|
1.31
|
2.65
|
17.12
|
68.4
|
|
Pontiac
|
1.15
|
1.95
|
2.97
|
2.84
|
0.62
|
2.53
|
1.25
|
2.72
|
16.03
|
65.1
|
|
Wanatah, IN
|
4.31
|
2.86
|
4.31
|
2.88
|
2.07
|
2.04
|
1.08
|
2.78
|
22.33
|
84.8
|
*Normal precipitation data for Romeoville is not available since station is less than 30 years old.
What is the reason for the ongoing drought?
During the spring and summer seasons, several Canadian high pressure systems moved across the great lakes and upper Mississippi Valley. This type of set up brings in dry Canadian air. In addition, an upper level ridge of high pressure has been persistent over the Great Plains and Midwest, which brought spells of dry and very warm weather to the region. On a few occasions when potential storm-producing fronts did traverse the area, they arrived late at night and in the morning hours when the atmosphere is cooler, more stable, and less conducive to producing rain. During the fall season and December, there were a few systems that have moved through the area, but none of them provided enough precipitation to put a dent into the deficit. January was the first month since last winter to be above normal for precipitation for most of the region, but since the long term conditions of below normal precipitation are so drastic, it has done little to improve drought conditions. February started out with above normal amounts of precipitation, but has since averaged out and the month ended up being around normal for most of the region.
Did you know…?
• Droughts are natural events that occur in nearly all climate zones but with widely variable characteristics.
• Drought is a deviation from climate and is quite different from an arid region with low annual precipitation.
• While droughts can be defined as a climate phenomenon, their impacts on humans and the environment can be extreme.
• Droughts occur on time scales which are greater than those of weather-related catastrophes such as hurricane, tornados or floods.
• Because of the longer time scales, droughts are responsible for the largest economic losses of all weather-related events
Drought for kids…
- If you are a kid and interested in the drought, check out this web page for any information on droughts:
- http://www.drought.unl.edu/kids/
Questions or Comments:
If you have any questions or comments concerning this drought information, or if you have any drought information from your area to report, please contact:
Tim Halbach
Climate Services Focal Point
National Weather Service
Romeoville, IL 60446
E-mail: timothy.j.halbach@noaa.gov
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