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Energy Sector Modeling

A complete version of the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is maintained at Berkeley Lab. NEMS is the source of the widely used forecasts published in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). Berkeley Lab installs the latest AEO version of NEMS each year, when it is released by EIA. The model is then used for various policy analyses, notably for conducting the background analysis necessary for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to support proposed efficiency standards for several types of equipment specified by legislation. The group is currently involved in construction of the buildings module for the Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS). This model is intended for budget and other management applications at DOE. SEDS is fully uncertainty based and being developed on the Analytica® platform. The buildings module takes interactions between end-uses into account, e.g. more efficient lighting lowers the cooling requirement but vice-versa for heating. It also models on-site generation, e.g. by small-scale combined heat and power or photovoltaic arrays, so a path to zero net energy vehicles can be found. The Lab also prepares inputs to the Government Performance and Results Act submission of DOE.

Project Team:

Chris Marnay (Project Lead)
Ryan Wiser
Michael Stadler
Kristina Hamachi LaCommare
Judy Lai
Ryoichi Komiyama