Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
000 FXUS63 KPAH 300032 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009 .UPDATE... WILL BE DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEWLY DEVELOPED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE NAM DID A GOOD JOB PICKING UP ON THIS. WILL CARRY THE SHOWER POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AND LINGERING INSTABILITY CAN PASS AND FADE. NO CHANGES TO THE AVIATION SECTION. && .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009/ 2NDARY TROF/CU FIELD SEEN ON SATELLITE/VIS SHOTS ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS NRN PTNS PAH FA. NAM FOR PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN SQUEEZING OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS WITH ITS PASSAGE...BUT THINKING HERE IS THAT COLUMNAR MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT MORE THAN SPRINKLES AT BEST. WILL KEEP PC SKY AND LAY OFF POP MENTION...WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE COLLABORATIVE APPROACH AS WELL. COOLER AIRMASS WILL SINK SOUTH BEHIND THIS TROF PASSAGE AND HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S/50S NEXT FEW DAYS AFTERWORDS. RECORD LOWS RUNNING MID 40S MAY BE APPROACHED SUN NIGHT OR MON NIGHT BUT PROBABLY NOT SERIOUSLY THREATENED. STILL UNSEASONABLY COOL/PLEASANTLY LESS HUMID AIR SHOULD HOLD THRU AT LEAST MID WEEK. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK/FORECAST...A MORE TROFFY INFLUENCE IS FELT IN THE UPPER PATTERN...PERHAPS MILDLY FLIRTING W/A POP. HOWEVER IN GENERAL THE COLLABORATIVE APPROACH IS TO MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST GIVEN THE LACK OF RETURN FLOW MOISTURE...OR AT LEAST GENERAL MODEL DISAGREEMENT UPON ITS OCCURRENCE. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...THOUGH DAYS 6-7 BEAR WATCHING. NAM MET FIELDS APPEAR TO MOST FINELY RESOLVE BLAYER TEMPS/TDS AND WERE LEANED TOWARD FOR MOST OF THE THERMAL/ISODROSOTHERMAL PORTION OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. && .AVIATION... UNDER CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW...HIGH SFC PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE PAH FCST AREA THIS WEEKEND. INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR WILL KEEP CU FEW-SCT THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. DRY AIR AND LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG FORMATION TO A MINIMUM. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH OVNGT AND INTRODUCE SOME VFR CLOUDS AND A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LIGHT SFC WINDS...WHICH WILL INCREASE A BIT TOWARD SUNDAY AFTN. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$
