Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 0.4 Percent in July from June
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BTS 41-06
Dave Smallen
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Wednesday, Sept. 6, 2006 - The Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 0.4 percent in July from its June level, dropping for the second consecutive month, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).
The declines in June and July are the first consecutive monthly declines in the TSI since October 2005, which was the last of five consecutive monthly declines (Table 2).
For the first seven months of 2006, the TSI, a combination of the freight and passenger indexes, rose 0.9 percent, the third consecutive December-to-July rise but the smallest increase since a decline in 2003 (Table 3).
The July level of 111.5 for the combined freight and passenger index was 0.1 percent higher than the July 2005 level, the fifth consecutive increase from July of the previous year but the smallest year-to-year rise since no change in 2001 (Table 4). The July level was 12.3 percent higher than the July level of the base year of 2000 (Table 5).
TSI is a single seasonally adjusted index of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries, including railroad, air, truck, inland waterways, pipeline, and local transit.
The index includes historic data from 1990 to the present. The TSI is still under development and is considered experimental. The index measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. Release of the August index is scheduled for Oct. 6.
Transportation Services Index for Freight
The TSI for freight fell 0.8 percent in July from the June level, turning down for the second consecutive month (Table 6). The Freight TSI rose from 111.6 in July 2005 to 111.7 in July 2006, the fifth consecutive rise from July of the previous year but the smallest year-to-year rise since a decline in 2001 (Table 7). For the first seven months of 2006, the Freight TSI rose 0.7 percent, the third consecutive rise in the December-to-July period but the smallest increase since a decline in 2003 (Table 3).
Transportation Services Index for Passengers
The TSI for passengers rose 0.2 percent in July from the June level, rising after three consecutive monthly decreases (Table 8). The Passenger TSI July 2006 level fell 0.2 percent from the July 2005 level, the first decline following three years of increases (Table 9). For the first seven months of 2006, the Passenger TSI rose 0.7 percent, the third consecutive December-to- July rise but the smallest rise in the December-to-July period since a decline in 2003 (Table 3).
More on TSI
NOTE:TSI numbers for March 2006 (Total, Freight, and Passenger) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. The March TSI is 110.9, revised from the 111.0 reported in the August release. The March Freight TSI is 110.6, revised from 111.6. The March Passenger TSI is 111.0, revised from 109.2 The TSI for April, May, June and July are preliminary.
TSI revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months' index numbers considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. All other revisions are held until an annual comprehensive revision of the TSI which will be released at the end of the calendar year. More information about the revision policy and the TSI index is available at
http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
Table 1: Transportation Services Index Since January 2006
Percent Change by Month
(Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
| January |
110.9 |
0.3 |
111.1 |
0.2 |
110.2 |
0.6 |
| February |
109.4 |
-1.3 |
109.7 |
-1.3 |
108.7 |
-1.3 |
| MarchR |
110.9 |
1.3 |
110.6 |
0.9 |
111.0 |
2.1 |
| AprilP |
111.2 |
0.3 |
111.0 |
0.4 |
110.5 |
-0.5 |
| MayP |
112.4 |
1.1 |
113.2 |
1.9 |
110.2 |
-0.3 |
| JuneP |
111.9 |
-0.4 |
112.6 |
-0.5 |
110.0 |
-0.2 |
| JulyP |
111.5 |
-0.4 |
111.7 |
-0.8 |
110.2 |
0.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2003-2006
Percent change from previous month
Excel | CSV
| January |
-1.0 |
-1.4 |
1.5 |
0.3 |
| February |
-1.9 |
2.8 |
-1.4 |
-1.3 |
| March |
0.9 |
0.7 |
1.5 |
(R) 1.3 |
| April |
-0.5 |
0.7 |
0.0 |
(P) 0.3 |
| May |
-0.2 |
-0.4 |
0.4 |
(P) 1.1 |
| June |
1.0 |
1.0 |
-0.5 |
(P) -0.4 |
| July |
1.3 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
(P) -0.4 |
| August |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
-0.1 |
|
| September |
1.1 |
0.5 |
-0.3 |
|
| October |
0.7 |
0.1 |
-0.9 |
|
| November |
-0.1 |
0.9 |
1.6 |
|
| December |
2.3 |
-0.3 |
-0.9 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 3: Transportation Services Index Year-to-Date Change, 1997-2006
Percent change from December of previous year
December to July
Excel | CSV
| 1997 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
1.2 |
| 1998 |
2.6 |
3.6 |
0.5 |
| 1999 |
2.1 |
2.5 |
1.2 |
| 2000 |
-1.8 |
-4.6 |
5.5 |
| 2001 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
-0.1 |
| 2002 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
| 2003 |
-1.7 |
-1.0 |
-3.7 |
| 2004 |
3.3 |
3.0 |
4.1 |
| 2005 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
2.5 |
| 2006P |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the July TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
| 1997 |
92.8 |
6.2 |
| 1998 |
97.7 |
5.2 |
| 1999 |
100.3 |
2.7 |
| 2000 |
99.2 |
-1.1 |
| 2001 |
99.2 |
0.0 |
| 2002 |
100.3 |
1.1 |
| 2003 |
102.0 |
1.6 |
| 2004 |
109.2 |
7.1 |
| 2005 |
111.3 |
2.0 |
| 2006P |
111.5 |
0.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5: Transportation Services Index from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2006 (July to July)
Excel | CSV
| 0.1 |
2005 |
1 |
| 2.1 |
2004 |
2 |
| 9.3 |
2003 |
3 |
| 11.1 |
2002 |
4 |
| 12.3 |
2001 |
5 |
| 12.3 |
2000 |
6 |
| 11.1 |
1999 |
7 |
| 14.1 |
1998 |
8 |
| 20.0 |
1997 |
9 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to May 2006 are all preliminary.
Table 6: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2003-2006
Percent change from previous month
Excel | CSV
| January |
-1.1 |
-1.6 |
1.4 |
0.2 |
| February |
-1.4 |
2.6 |
-1.2 |
-1.3 |
| March |
1.2 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
(R) 0.9 |
| April |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
(P) 0.4 |
| May |
-1.2 |
-0.3 |
0.2 |
(P) 1.9 |
| June |
0.8 |
0.8 |
-0.5 |
(P) -0.5 |
| July |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
(P) -0.8 |
| August |
-0.1 |
-0.6 |
0.4 |
|
| September |
0.6 |
0.5 |
-1.3 |
|
| October |
1.3 |
-0.5 |
-0.6 |
|
| November |
-0.8 |
1.3 |
2.0 |
|
| December |
2.9 |
-0.4 |
-1.1 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 7: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the July Freight TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
| 1997 |
94.7 |
7.2 |
| 1998 |
101.3 |
7.0 |
| 1999 |
102.1 |
0.8 |
| 2000 |
98.7 |
-3.4 |
| 2001 |
98.3 |
-0.3 |
| 2002 |
103.1 |
4.9 |
| 2003 |
104.0 |
0.8 |
| 2004 |
110.9 |
6.7 |
| 2005 |
111.6 |
0.7 |
| 2006P |
111.7 |
0.0 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Passenger Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2003-2006
Percent change from previous month
Excel | CSV
| January |
-0.8 |
-1.1 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
| February |
-3.1 |
3.4 |
-2.0 |
-1.3 |
| March |
0.2 |
0.1 |
2.9 |
(R) 2.1 |
| April |
-3.7 |
0.8 |
-0.1 |
(P) -0.5 |
| May |
2.3 |
-0.7 |
0.8 |
(P) -0.3 |
| June |
1.5 |
1.6 |
-0.5 |
(P) -0.2 |
| July |
3.4 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
(P) 0.2 |
| August |
-0.6 |
0.1 |
-1.3 |
|
| September |
2.2 |
0.5 |
2.3 |
|
| October |
-0.7 |
1.6 |
-1.9 |
|
| November |
1.3 |
-0.2 |
0.4 |
|
| December |
1.1 |
-0.2 |
-0.4 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 9: Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the July Freight TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
| 1997 |
88.4 |
4.2 |
| 1998 |
89.6 |
1.4 |
| 1999 |
96.0 |
7.1 |
| 2000 |
100.5 |
4.7 |
| 2001 |
101.2 |
0.6 |
| 2002 |
93.6 |
-7.5 |
| 2003 |
97.2 |
3.8 |
| 2004 |
104.9 |
8.0 |
| 2005 |
110.4 |
5.2 |
| 2006P |
110.2 |
-0.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Brief Explanation of the TSI
The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The TSI is still under development and is therefore considered experimental. It is being examined for refinements in data sources, methodologies and interpretations.
The freight transportation index consists of:
For hire trucking,
Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland waterways transportation,
Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and
Air freight.
The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local transit,
Intercity passenger rail, and
Passenger air transportation.
The index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.
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