Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Versions: 1
2
000
FGUS73 KABR 020926
ESFABR
SDC013-017-021-025-029-031-039-041-045-049-051-057-059-065-069-
075-085-089-091-107-109-115-117-119-129-MNC011-155-011200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
425 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) ENABLE THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER
OUTLOOKS...
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM SEPTEMBER 1 2008 - NOVEMBER 30 2008
THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES THE CHANCE OF REACHING FLOOD STAGE AT
THE GAGES DURING THE VALID PERIOD.
APPROXIMATE CHANCE
OF REACHING
LOCATION FS (FT) FLOOD STAGE
-------- ------- ------------------
ELM RIVER
WESTPORT SD 14.0 < 10 %
JAMES RIVER
COLUMBIA SD 13.0 < 10 %
STRATFORD SD 14.0 < 10 %
ASHTON SD 13.0 < 10 %
REDFIELD SD 20.0 < 10 %
TURTLE CREEK
REDFIELD SD 7.0 < 10 %
BIG SIOUX RIVER
WATERTOWN SD 7NW 10.0 < 10 %
WATERTOWN SD 3NE 8.0 15 %
BROADWAY AT WT 11.0 < 10 %
CASTLEWOOD SD 11.0 < 10 %
GRAND RIVER
LITTLE EAGLE SD 15.0 < 10 %
MOREAU RIVER
WHITEHORSE SD 21.0 < 10 %
BAD RIVER
FT. PIERRE 21.0 < 10 %
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE ELM RIVER NEAR WESTPORT HAS A FLOOD STAGE
OF 14 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE
ABOVE 4.7 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
----------- ---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --
ELM R
WESTPORT SD 1N 14.0 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 5.1 6.5
JAMES R
COLUMBIA SD 1S 13.0 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 6.5 7.9 10.0
STRATFORD SD 14.0 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.4 9.7 11.4
ASHTON SD 13.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.2 5.9 7.3
REDFIELD SD 3N 20.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.2 5.7 8.3
TURTLE CR
REDFIELD SD 7.0 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 5.5
BIG SIOUX RIVER
WATERTOWN SD 7NW 10.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.3 5.0 5.5 7.3
WATERTOWN SD 3NW 8.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.8 5.6 6.4 8.2
BROADWAY AT WT 11.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7 6.5 7.1 8.0 10.5
CASTLEWOOD SD 11.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.5 6.0 7.1 9.1
GRAND R
LITTLE EAGLE 1S 15.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.6 5.4 6.5 7.8 9.4
MOREAU R
WHITEHORSE 2SE 21.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5 3.2 4.0 5.2 7.4 8.4
BAD R
FT PIERRE 2SW 21.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.4 3.4 7.9 9.9
THE GAGING SITE ON THE LITTLE MINNESOTA RIVER NEAR PEEVER SOUTH DAKOTA
WAS MOVED IN JULY. NEW STAGES AND RATING WILL BE AVAILABLE NEXT
MONTH.
NUMBERS CONTAINED IN THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK REPRESENT
NATURAL FLOWS. THAT IS...FLOWS UNAFFECTED BY MAN-MADE STRUCTURES IN
THE BASIN SUCH AS DIVERSION DAMS AND RESERVOIRS.
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SNOW COVER...AND SOIL MOISTURE...AND THE 30 TO 90 DAY
LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED.
THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS).
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD THE END OF
THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. THE NEXT SCHEDULED OUTLOOK FOR THESE
SITES WILL BE ISSUED TOWARD THE END OF SEPTEMBER 2008.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABR FOR MORE WEATHER AND RIVER
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
$$
PARKIN
