Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 1.4 Percent in November from October
PDF
|
Contact |
BTS 2-09
Dave Smallen
202-366-5568 |
|
Wednesday, January 14, 2009 - The Freight
Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 1.4 percent in November from its
October level, falling after a one-month rise, the U.S. Department of Transportation’s
Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).
The November decline was the
third monthly decrease in four months (Table 2).
At 107.6 in November, the
freight TSI is at its lowest level since January 2004 when it was 106.5 and is down
4.9 percent from its historic peak of 113.1 reached in November 2005. For
additional historical data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
For the first 11 months of 2008,
the index fell 0.7 percent. The index rose 1.3 percent in the first 11 months
of 2007 before dropping in December to finish the year down by 0.1 percent
(Table 3).
The freight TSI
measures the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the
for-hire freight transportation industries. The index consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland
waterways, pipelines and air freight.
The November 2008 freight TSI
level was 2.4 percent lower than the November 2007 level of 110.2. The freight index is at its lowest November
level since 2003 (Table 4).
Despite a 4.9 percent decline
from its historic peak in November 2005, the freight index has increased 2.2
percent in five years and 6.8 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The TSI is a seasonally adjusted
index that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of
2000. It includes historic data from
1990 to the present. Release of the December index is scheduled for Feb.
11.
BTS has issued a new technical
report explaining the TSI. BTS Technical Report: Transportation Services
Index and the Economy is available for download at
https://www.bts.gov/pdc/index.xml in the BTS bookstore.
Transportation Services
Index for Passengers
The TSI for
passengers fell 0.2 percent in November from its October level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI November 2008 level of 114.0
was 2.1 percent lower than the November 2007 level, marking the first
year-to-year decrease since November 2001 (Table 7). The index declined 2.8
percent during the first 11 months (Table 3). Despite the decline in the first 11
months of the year, the passenger index is up 14.2 percent in five years and 22.2
percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The passenger
TSI measures the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by
the for-hire passenger transportation industries. The seasonally adjusted index consists of
data from air, local transit and intercity rail.
Combined Freight and Passenger Index
The combined
freight and passenger TSI fell 1.1 percent in November from its October level
(Table 8). The combined TSI November 2008 level of 108.8 was 2.3 percent lower
than the November 2007 level (Table 9). The combined index fell 1.2 percent for
the first 11 months of the year (Table 3). However, the combined index is up 5.0
percent in five years and 10.7 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The combined TSI merges the
freight and passenger indexes into a single index.
More on TSI
NOTE: TSI numbers for July (Freight, Passenger
and Combined) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the
component transportation services. The July Freight TSI is 111.3, revised from
the 112.9 reported in last month (December)
release. The July Passenger TSI is 118.3, revised from 116.3. The July Combined TSI is 112.6, revised from 113.4. The TSI for August, September, October and
November are preliminary.
TSI revision policy: TSI is
updated monthly with the latest four months’ index numbers considered preliminary.
Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest
preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. More information about the monthly
revision policy, the comprehensive revision conducted in July 2007 and the TSI
index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
Table 1: Freight,
Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since May 2008
Percent Change by
Month
(Seasonally Adjusted,
Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
May |
109.9 |
0.4 |
118.4 |
0.1 |
111.6 |
0.3 |
June |
109.8 |
-0.2 |
118.3 |
-0.1 |
111.5 |
-0.1 |
JulyR |
111.3 |
1.4 |
118.3 |
0.0 |
112.6 |
1.0 |
AugustP |
110.8 |
-0.4 |
116.8 |
-1.3 |
111.9 |
-0.6 |
SeptemberP |
108.0 |
-2.5 |
114.9 |
-1.6 |
109.4 |
-2.3 |
OctoberP |
109.1 |
1.0 |
114.3 |
-0.6 |
110.1 |
0.6 |
NovemberP |
107.6 |
-1.4 |
114.0 |
-0.2 |
108.8 |
-1.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.7 |
0.4 |
-0.3 |
2.8 |
February |
-0.9 |
-1.4 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
March |
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
-2.9 |
April |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
1.1 |
May |
0.0 |
2.4 |
-0.1 |
0.4 |
June |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
-0.7 |
-0.2 |
July |
-0.5 |
-0.9 |
0.1 |
(R) 1.4 |
August |
1.0 |
-2.5 |
0.5 |
(P) -0.4 |
September |
-1.3 |
0.9 |
-0.9 |
(P) -2.5 |
October |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
1.7 |
(P) 1.0 |
November |
2.8 |
-1.4 |
0.4 |
(P) -1.4 |
December |
-1.7 |
0.6 |
-1.7 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation
Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 1999-2008
Percent change from December of previous year
December to November
Excel | CSV
1999 |
4.3 |
5.7 |
4.7 |
2000 |
-5.6 |
7.7 |
-1.6 |
2001 |
-0.2 |
-14.3 |
-4.7 |
2002 |
6.6 |
5.2 |
6.2 |
2003 |
0.7 |
2.2 |
1.1 |
2004 |
3.1 |
5.9 |
3.9 |
2005 |
1.9 |
3.2 |
2.3 |
2006 |
-2.7 |
3.8 |
-1.2 |
2007 |
1.3 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
2008P |
-0.7 |
-2.8 |
-1.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the November
Freight TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1999 |
104.1 |
3.3 |
2000 |
99.1 |
-4.8 |
2001 |
97.6 |
-1.5 |
2002 |
103.7 |
6.2 |
2003 |
105.3 |
1.6 |
2004 |
111.4 |
5.8 |
2005 |
113.1 |
1.6 |
2006 |
108.3 |
-4.3 |
2007 |
110.2 |
1.8 |
2008P |
107.6 |
-2.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5:
Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2008 (November to November)
Excel | CSV
2007 |
1 |
-2.4 |
-2.1 |
-2.3 |
2006 |
2 |
-0.6 |
0.9 |
-0.2 |
2005 |
3 |
-4.9 |
3.8 |
-2.9 |
2004 |
4 |
-3.4 |
7.1 |
-0.9 |
2003 |
5 |
2.2 |
14.2 |
5.0 |
2002 |
6 |
3.8 |
18.7 |
7.4 |
2001 |
7 |
10.2 |
31.8 |
15.5 |
2000 |
8 |
8.6 |
11.1 |
8.6 |
1999 |
9 |
3.3 |
15.3 |
6.3 |
1998 |
10 |
6.8 |
22.2 |
10.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to November 2008 are all
preliminary.
Table 6: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.4 |
1.9 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
February |
-0.1 |
-0.6 |
-2.0 |
-0.5 |
March |
0.5 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
0.8 |
April |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
May |
0.8 |
0.6 |
1.5 |
0.1 |
June |
0.1 |
-1.0 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
July |
0.1 |
0.5 |
-0.1 |
(R) 0.0 |
August |
0.2 |
0.0 |
1.1 |
(P) -1.3 |
September |
1.4 |
0.9 |
-0.1 |
(P) -1.6 |
October |
-1.9 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
(P) -0.6 |
November |
0.7 |
-0.2 |
-1.5 |
(P) -0.2 |
December |
-0.9 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 7: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the November
Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1999 |
98.8 |
6.0 |
2000 |
102.6 |
3.8 |
2001 |
86.5 |
-15.7 |
2002 |
96.0 |
11.0 |
2003 |
99.8 |
3.9 |
2004 |
106.4 |
6.6 |
2005 |
109.8 |
3.2 |
2006 |
113.0 |
2.9 |
2007 |
116.4 |
3.1 |
2008P |
114.0 |
-2.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation
Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.6 |
0.8 |
-0.3 |
2.1 |
February |
-0.7 |
-1.2 |
-0.5 |
-0.1 |
March |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
-2.0 |
April |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
1.0 |
May |
0.2 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
June |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
-0.6 |
-0.1 |
July |
-0.3 |
-0.6 |
0.0 |
(R) 1.0 |
August |
0.8 |
-1.9 |
0.7 |
(P) -0.6 |
September |
-0.6 |
0.9 |
-0.7 |
(P) -2.3 |
October |
-0.7 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
(P) 0.6 |
November |
2.3 |
-1.1 |
-0.1 |
(P) -1.1 |
December |
-1.5 |
0.7 |
-1.1 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 9: Combined Transportation
Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the November
TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1999 |
102.4 |
4.1 |
2000 |
100.2 |
-2.1 |
2001 |
94.3 |
-6.0 |
2002 |
101.4 |
7.5 |
2003 |
103.6 |
2.3 |
2004 |
109.8 |
6.0 |
2005 |
112.0 |
2.0 |
2006 |
109.1 |
-2.6 |
2007 |
111.4 |
2.1 |
2008P |
108.8 |
-2.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Brief Explanation
of the TSI
The Transportation Services Index
(TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services
provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The TSI tells us how the output of
transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The
index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a
better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be
compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes
in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The freight transportation index consists
of:
For-hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air
freight.
The
index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private
trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger
air transportation.
The index does not include
intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private
automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.
|