This chapter also is available as a PDF file.

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Press release (dated 20 September 2006)

Chapter 10: Summary and Next Steps

Climate change is a complex, long-term challenge. United States' climate change goals are consistent with and supportive of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which set an ultimate goal of stabilizing greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere at a level that avoids dangerous human interference with the climate system. There is international recognition that climate change concerns cannot be addressed in isolation from other pressing needs, such as economic development, energy security, and pollution reduction, especially in developing economies. Successfully addressing these complementary concerns will require the development and commercialization of advanced technologies, particularly, but not exclusively, those that have the potential to fundamentally alter the way we produce and use energy. It will also require a sustained, long-term commitment by all nations over many generations and a substantial degree of international cooperation.

It is within this broad context that the United States is pursuing a comprehensive strategy on climate change. This strategy includes implementing policies and measures to slow the growth of GHG emissions, investing in climate science to improve understanding of climate change and provide information to decision-makers, accelerating the development and adoption of energy and other technologies that reduce, avoid, or capture and sequester GHG emissions, and promoting international collaboration. In this way, the United States is working to ensure a bright and secure energy and economic future for the Nation and a healthy planet for future genertions (Figure 10-1).

Under the auspices of the Cabinet-level Committee on Climate Change Science and Technology Integration (CCCSTI), the Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP), led by the Department of Energy (DOE), represents the technology component of this strategy. Authorized by the Energy Policy Act of 2005, CCTP functions as a multi-agency planning and coordination entity. CCTP is charged with reviewing and prioritizing the Federal Government's climate-related technology programs. Its activities are guided by the CCCSTI and carried out by representatives of the participating R&D agencies. CCTP provides strategic direction for and coordinates an investment portfolio of climate-change related technology research, development, demonstration and deployment (R&D) of nearly $3 billion in Fiscal Year 2006.

Figure 10-1 The United States is working to ensure a bright and secure energy and economic future for the Nation and a healthy planet for future generations. Courtesy: NASA, Hasler Laboratory for Atmospheres Goddard Space Flight Center, Credit: Nelson Stockli

10.1 Summary

CCTP's strategic vision is to attain, on a global scale and in partnership with others, a technological capability that can provide abundant, clean, secure, and affordable energy and other services needed to encourage and sustain economic growth, while simultaneously achieving substantial GHG emissions reductions to mitigate the potential risks of climate change from increasing GHG concentrations. To give substance to this vision, CCTP's portfolio pursues six complementary strategic goals: (1) reduce emissions from energy use and infrastructure; (2) reduce emissions from energy supply; (3) capture and sequester CO₂; (4) reduce emissions of other GHGs; (5) measure and monitor emissions; and (6) bolster the contributions of basic science. The Plan outlines seven approaches to attain those goals, including next steps.

Long-Term Planning Under Uncertainty

Estimated Cumulative GHG Emissions Mitigation (GtC) from Accelerated Adoption of Advanced Technologies over the 21st Century, by Strategic Goal, Across a Range of Hypothesized GHG Emissions Constraints

Table 10-1 Estimated Cumulative GHG Emissions Mitigation (GtC) from Accelerated Adoption of Advanced Technologies over the 21st Century, by Strategic Goal, Across a Range of Hypothesized GHG Emissions Constraints [2].

Goals for Technology Development

Regarding reductions or avoidances in GHG emissions, CCTP envisions significant contributions from the accelerated adoption of advanced technologies in each of its four emissions-reduction strategic goals. [3] Across a wide range of atmospheric GHG concentration levels and hypothesized emissions constraints (from "low" to "very high"), CCTP explored the potential contributions of three contrasting technological futures over a 100-year planning horizon. Table 10-1 provides a representative sample of the range of GHG emissions reductions, accumulated over this period, that may be possible should the promise of advanced technologies associated with these goals be realized (see Chapter 3).

Across all four goals, as well as among the many technologies within each goal, the accelerated adoption of advanced technologies is shown to be potentially capable of contributing significantly to GHG emissions reductions and avoidances. The underlying assumptions for technology performance can help inform long-term technology R&D planning and goal-setting. The significance of the potentials across all four goals suggests the importance of pursuing a diversified R&D portfolio.

Potential to Reduce Mitigation Costs

Figure 10-2 Comparative Analysis of Estimated Cumulative Costs Over the 21st Century of GHG Mitigation, With and Without Advanced Technology, Across a Range of Hypothesized GHG Emissions Constraints.

Considerations of Timing

Using the metric of when the first GtC per year of reduced or avoided GHG emissions could be achieved by the accelerated adoption of advanced technologies, across a range of assumptions, scenarios, and GHG emissions constraints, the analysis indicates that, in relative terms, advanced technologies for end-use energy efficiency contribute first, followed soon thereafter by technologies for mitigation of non-CO₂GHGs, advanced energy supply technologies, and carbon capture, storage, and sequestration. The timing of such contributions for each CCTP strategic goal, however, may vary by decades depending on the GHG concentration level assumed, as shown in Table 10-2. Allowing for capital stock turnover and other inertia inherent in the global energy system and infrastructure, it is noted that for advanced technologies to achieve one GtC per year, they would need to be available in the commercial marketplace and gaining market share years before the periods indicated on Table 10-2.

Estimated Timing of Advanced Technology Market Penetrations, as Indicated by the First GtC-Eq./Year of Incremental Emissions Mitigation [5], by Strategic Goal, Across a Range of Hypothesized GHG Emissions Constraints

Table 10-2 Estimated Timing of Advanced Technology Market Penetrations, as Indicated by the First GtC-Eq./Year of Incremental Emissions Mitigation5, by Strategic Goal, Across a Range of Hypothesized GHG Emissions Constraints.

Strategies for Technology Development and Deployment

Climate Change Technology Development and Deployment for the 21st Century [6]

Figure 10-3 Climate Change Technology Development and Deployment for the 21st Century [6]. (Download PDF)

Figure 10-3 presents an integration of these five timelines, for the near-, mid-, and long-terms. In general, advanced technologies appear in the figure at the point where commercialization is achieved and a favorable investment environment supports their adoption. Although many technologies are shown, only those that offer cost-effective options, compared to their competitors, would achieve significant market representation.

In the near-term (in less than 20 years), the CCTP strategy envisions commercial readiness, such that significant market entry can occur, by hybrid cars, high-efficiency buildings and industrial processes, selected technologies to capture, store and sequester CO₂, coal-based integrated gasification-combined cycle power plants, and methane capture and use technologies. In the mid-term (20 to 40 years later), the early technologies would be followed by significant market shares of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, "smart" buildings, transformational technologies for energy intensive industries, improved CO₂capture, methane emission reductions, and advanced nuclear energy In the long-term, such technologies would be improved and extended more broadly and more advanced technologies would enter the marketplace. Ultimately, societies could see extensive adoption of low emissions infrastructure and communities, low emissions intelligent transport systems, wide-spread adoption of renewable energy and nuclear power, large scale adoption of zero-emission power plants with carbon sequestration, fusion power plants, and high levels of management of emissions of non-CO₂GHGs.

Key Initiatives

Figure 10-4 CCTP's portfolio supports near-term deployment of civilian nuclear power, such as Westinghouse's AP1000. Nuclear power safely produces electricity with little or no GHG emissions. Courtesy: Westinghouse Electric Company, LLC

Contributions of Basic Science

Emerging Priorities

In this way the CCTP portfolio is strengthened on an ongoing basis. This has resulted in the realignment of the portfolio in certain areas, evidenced by changes in investment levels over time. Climate change strategy also has provided compelling rationales for entirely new or revamped programs. These are described in Chapters 4 through 9 in the current portfolio sections.

Within the overall CCTP portfolio, certain activities are identified as priorities associated with President's National Climate Change Technology Initiative (NCCTI). NCCTI priorities are defined as discrete research, development, demonstration, or deployment activities that address technological challenges that, if solved, could advance technologies with the potential to dramatically reduce, avoid, or sequester greenhouse gas emissions. The NCCTI priorities appearing in the Fiscal Year 2007 budget request include, as ordered by strategic goal, the following:

1. Transportation fuel cell systems; solid state lighting; and "Climate Leaders" (Strategic Goal 1).

2. Low wind speed technology, cellulosic biomass (Figure 10-6), biochemical platform R&D, hydrogen storage, nuclear hydrogen initiative, integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), and advanced fuel cycle/advanced burner reactor (Strategic Goal 2).

3. Sequestration (Strategic Goal 3).

4. Methane partnership initiatives (Strategic Goal 4).

Also included among the NCCTI priorities is CCTP program support. Details on these activities can be found in Appendix B. Current and updated programmatic information in this regard may be found at the CCTP Web site.9

Advances in climate change science under the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) are expected to improve our knowledge of climate change so that its potential impacts and uncertainties about the causes and effects of climate change will be better understood. This will help to inform the potential risks and benefits of various courses of action. Similarly, advances in climate change technology under the CCTP are expected to bring forth an expanded array of advanced technology options that can meet a range of societal needs, including reducing GHG emissions, with better performance and lower costs. Improved options will enable and facilitate actions that may be called for and informed by science.

Finally, should widespread adoption of advanced climate change technologies be pursued, as guided by science, it would likely need to be supported by appropriate technology policy, potentially including market-based incentives. As Federal efforts to advance technology go forward, broadened participation by the private sector in these efforts will be increasingly important to accelerate both the innovation and the commercialization of advanced technologies.

Such participation can be encouraged by appropriate and supporting technology policy. This is evidenced today, in part, by a number of market-based incentives already in place, by others proposed by the Administration, [10] and by still others, as may be appropriate, to GHG-reducing technology investments, soon to be implemented in accord with the provisions of Title XIII of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. [11] Title XVI of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 sets the stage for future development of policies that would facilitate new technology adoption. CCTP will support CCCSTI in implementing the provisions of Title XVI. Additionally, CCTP will explore a number of technology policy options, as listed in its next steps below.

Figure 10-5 CCTP's portfolio supports the development and demonstration of revolutionary coal-based technologies, such as FutureGen, that is expected to produce electricity, hydrogen, fuels, and chemicals with nearly zero emissions of GHGs. Courtesy: DOE/FE

10.2 Next Steps

CCTP intends to pursue specific activities to ensure progress toward achieving CCTP's strategic goals. These activities, organized by approach, are outlined below. CCTP does not expect to pursue all activities immediately, or simultaneously.

Figure 10-6 CCTP's portfolio supports research to transform switchgrass (shown), other agricultural and forest products, cellulosic plant matter, and associated detritus (e.g., residential waste) into bio-based fuels, which are low in net emissions of GHGs. Courtesy: USDA NRCS

Strengthen Climate Change Technology R&D

• Continue to review, realign, reprioritize, and expand, where appropriate, Federal support for climate change technology research, development, demonstration, and deployment.
• Periodically assess the adequacy of the multi-agency portfolio with respect to its ability to achieve or make technical progress toward CCTP's strategic goals, identify gaps and opportunities, and make recommendations supported by analysis.
• In key technology areas, perform long-term assessments of technology potentials, including market considerations and potentially limiting factors.
• Improve methods, tools, and decision-making processes for climate technology planning and management, and R&D planning and assessment, including tools that allow portfolio planning to address risks through hedging strategies.

Strengthen Basic Research Contributions

• Establish or improve within each of the participating Federal R&D agencies a process for the integration with, and application of, basic research to help overcome barriers impeding technical progress on climate change technology development (Figure 10-7).
• Develop means for expanding participation in climate change technology R&D, including relevant basic research, at universities and other non-Federal research institutions.
• Review agencies' experiences with basic and exploratory research programs aimed at novel, advanced, integrative or enabling concepts not covered elsewhere as a means of stimulating innovation within the research community and enriching the technology R&D portfolio.

Enhance Opportunities for Partnerships

• Review status and encourage further formation of public-private partnerships as a common mode of conducting R&D portfolio planning and program execution.
• Encourage formation of non-R&D partnerships.
• Establish means for enabling and encouraging the secure sharing of potentially sensitive partner information regarding GHG emissions and related performance of GHG-intensity reducing technologies.

Figure 10-7 CCTP's portfolio supports programs to promote efficiency in energy use, such as advanced lighting concepts including Los Alamos National Laboratory's (LANL) research on white light from inorganic, multi-color light-emitting diodes (LEDs). Courtesy: DOE/LANL

Increase International Cooperation

• Expand international participation in key climate change technology R&D activities and build on the many cooperative international initiatives already underway.
• Assist the Department of State and CCSP in the coordination of U.S. input and support of Working Group III on Mitigation of the IPCC's periodic Assessment Reports and other technology-related IPCC Special Reports, as means of stimulating international efforts to develop advanced technologies.
• Support continued efforts to negotiate, execute, and support bilateral agreements [12] that encourage international cooperation on climate change science and technology research. Pursue opportunities for outreach and communication to build relationships and encourage other similar initiatives by other countries.
• Pursue additional means to enhance the effective use of existing international organizations, such as the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, International Energy Agency, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Group of Eight (G8), [13] Global Environmental Observing System of Systems, and others, to shape and encourage expanded R&D on climate change technology development worldwide.
• Develop globally integrated approaches, such as the Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate (Figure 10-8), [14] to foster capacity building in developing countries, encourage cooperative planning and joint ventures and, enable the development, transfer, and deployment of advanced climate change technology.

Figure 10-8 Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate; Second Policy and Implementation Committee and Task Force Meeting, Berkeley, California - April 18�21, 2006, http://www.asiapacificpartnership.org. Courtesy: Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate

Support Cutting-Edge Technology Demonstrations

• As part of the agencies' regular planning and budgeting processes, consider additional cutting-edge technology demonstrations relevant to CCTP strategic goals.

Ensure a Viable Technology Workforce of the Future

• Explore the establishment of graduate fellowships for promising candidates who seek a career in climate-change-related technology R&D.
• Explore possibilities of expanding internships related to climate change technology development in Federal agencies, national and other laboratories, and other Federally Funded Research and Development Centers (FFRDCs).
• Explore possibilities for establishing CCTP-sponsored educational curricula in K�12 programs related to climate change and advanced technology options.

Provide Supporting Technology Policy

• Evaluate technology policy options for stimulating private sector investment in CCTP-related research, development, and experimentation activities.
• Evaluate technology policy options for stimulating private investment in and adoption of advanced climate change technology and other GHG-intensity reducing practices.
• Support, as needed, policy-related activities undertaken by CCCSTI in furtherance of the Energy Policy Act of 2005.
• Evaluate various technology policy options for stimulating land-use and land management practices that promote carbon sequestration and GHG emission reductions.

In carrying out these activities, and in accord with its management structure (Chapter 2), CCTP will be advised by the CCTP Steering Group, assisted by its multi-agency CCTP Working Groups, informed by inputs from varied sources, and supported by CCTP staff and resources. Results will be conveyed to the CCCSTI via the IWG. The CCTP also plans to issue periodically reports on its current activities, future plans, and research progress.

10.3 Closing

Footnotes

2 Source: Clarke et al. 2006, as described in Chapter 3. The 100-year cumulative values shown are consistent with Figure 3-19. Values have been rounded to the nearest 10 GtC.

3 Non-CO₂GHGs include a diverse group of gases, such as methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons. They are expected to contribute as much as 20 percent to total radiative forcing throughout the 21st century.

4 In the associated analysis (Chapter 3), the cumulative costs over the 21st century are undiscounted. Accordingly, relative comparisons (percents) are likely to be more meaningful than those showing absolute costs. Variations among the advanced technology scenarios are shown by the shaded area in Figure 10-2.

5 The years shown in the table represent the period, according to the analysis (Chapter 3), in which the first GtC (or GtC-eq.) of incremental emissions reduction (below an assumed Reference Case) is projected to occur due to the lowest-cost, accelerated adoption of each class of advanced technology in any one of the advanced technology scenarios. The Reference Case, without advanced technology, includes significant penetration of energy-efficient end-use technologies, nuclear, renewable, and biomass energy, terrestrial sequestration and non-CO₂emission reductions. The table shows ranges of values because results vary among the advanced technology scenarios. "Energy Supply" means net-zero or very low-emissions energy supply technologies.

6 Note: Technologies shown are representations of larger suites. With some overlap, "near-term" envisions significant technology adoption by 10�20 years from present, "mid-term" in a following period of 20�40 years, and "long-term" in a following period of 40�60 years. See also List of Acronyms and Abbreviations.

7 See also CCTP Vision and Framework for Strategy and Planning (2005).

8 For CCTP-related Key Initiatives.

9 For NCCTI priorities, see: http://www.climatetechnology.gov.

10 Federal Climate Change Expenditures Report to Congress, April 2006.

11 Financial incentives in Title XIII for technologies related to climate change goals are scored at more than $11 billion over 10 years.

12 The current bilateral agreements are: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Central America, Germany, the EU, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation, and South Africa. The countries included in the Central American agreement, apart from the United States, are: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama.

13 The countries are, in alphabetical order, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, United Kingdom, and United States. The G8 meetings often include the European Commission.

14 The Asia Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate was announced in July 2005. Six countries are participating, namely: Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, and the United States.