Climate Change, Variability and Prediction: Recent Publications

In Press:

Anderson W G., Anand Gnanadesikan, and Andrew T Wittenberg, in press: Regional impacts of ocean color on tropical Pacific variability. Ocean Sciences. 1/09.

Lengaigne and G A Vecchi, in press: Contrasting the termination of moderate and extreme El Niño events in Coupled General Circulation Models. Climate Dynamics 1/09

McPhaden, M.J., G. R. Foltz , T. Lee, V. S. N. Murty, M. Ravichandran, G A Vecchi, J. Vialard, J. D. Wiggert , L. Yu . in press: Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions During Cyclone Nargis. EOS, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union. 1/09

Landsea, C, G A Vecchi, L Bengtsson, and Thomas R Knutson, in press: Increases in Atlantic tropical cyclone counts since the late 1800s are likely due to advances in observations and analyses. Science. 8/08.
[ Abstract ]

Yin, J, M Schlesinger, and Ronald J Stouffer, in press: Rapid Sea Level Rise Threatens the Northeast Coast of the United States. Nature. 8/08.
[ Abstract ]

Chang, Y-S, Anthony Rosati, Shoaqing Zhang, and Matthew J Harrison, in press: Objective analysis of monthly temperature and salinity for the world ocean in the 21st Century: Comparison with WOA and application to assimilation model. Journal of Geophysical Research. 6/08.
[ Abstract ]

Zhang, Rong, and Thomas L Delworth, in press: A new method for attributing climate variations over the Atlantic Hurricane Basin's main development region. Geophysical Research Letters. 4/08.

Findell, Kirsten L., A J Pitman, M H England, and P J Pegion, in press: Regional and global impacts of land cover change and sea surface temperature anomalies. Journal of Climate. 4/08.
[ Abstract ]

---

Published: [ 2007 2008 2009 ]

2009

Landsea, C.W., G A Vecchi L. Bengtsson, and T. R. Knutson (2009): Impact of Duration Thresholds on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Counts. J. Climate.

Lee, Hyun-Chul, March 2009:Impact of atmospheric CO2 doubling on the North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L06602, doi:10.1029/2008GL037075

Gnanadesikan, Anand, and W G Anderson, February 2009: Ocean water clarity and the ocean general circulation in a coupled climate model. Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 39, No. 2, 314-332

2008

Delworth, Thomas L., and Fanrong Zeng, October 2008: Simulated impact of altered Southern Hemisphere winds on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L20708, doi:10.1029/2008GL035166
[ Abstract PDF ]

Levy II, Hiram, M Daniel Schwarzkopf, Larry Horowitz, V Ramaswamy, and Kirsten L Findell, March 2008: Strong sensitivity of late 21st Century climate to projected changes in short-lived air pollutants. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D06102, doi:10.1029/2007JD00917.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Chen, C-T, and Thomas R Knutson, 2008: On the verification and comparison of extreme rainfall indices from climate models. Journal of Climate, 21(7), 1605-1621.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Knutson, Thomas R., and Robert E Tuleya, May 2008: Tropical cyclones and climate change: Revisiting recent studies at GFDL In Climate Extremes and Society, Diaz, H.F. and R.J. Murnane, Eds., New York, NY, Cambridge University Press, 120-144.
[ Abstract ]

Knutson, Thomas R., Joseph J Sirutis, Stephen T Garner, G A Vecchi, and Isaac Held, 2008: Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions. Nature Geoscience, 1(6), 359-364.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Knutson, Thomas R., C Landsea, and K A Emanuel, in press: Tropical cyclones and climate change: A review. In Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones: From Science to Mitigation, Singapore, World Scientific Publishing Company. 7/08.
[ Abstract ]

Vecchi, G A., and Thomas R Knutson, January 2008: On estimates of historical North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Journal of Climate, 21(14), 3580-3600.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Milly, P C., J Betancourt, M Falkenmark, R M Hirsch, Z W Kundzewicz, D Lettenmaier, and Ronald J Stouffer, 2008: Stationarity is dead: Whither water management? Science, 319(5863), 573-574.
[ PDF ]


Barreiro, M, A Federov, Ronald C Pacanowski, and S G H Philander, 2008: Abrupt climate changes: How freshening of the northern Atlantic affects the thermohaline & wind-driven oceanic circulations. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 36, 33-58.
[ Abstract ]


Vecchi, G A., A C Clement, and Brian J Soden, February 2008: Examining the tropical Pacific's response to global warming. EOS, 89(9), 81, 83.
[ PDF ]

Vecchi, G A., K L Swanson, and Brian J Soden, November 2008: Whither hurricane activity. Science, 322(5902), 687-689.
[ Abstract PDF ]

2007

Anderson, W G., Anand Gnanadesikan, Robert W Hallberg, John Dunne, and Bonita L Samuels, June 2007: Impact of ocean color on the maintenance of the Pacific Cold Tongue. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L11609, doi:10.1029/2007GL030100.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Balaji, Ventakramani, Thomas L Delworth, Robert W Hallberg, Hiram Levy II, Ronald J Stouffer, and Michael Winton, 2007: Toward a new generation of ice sheet models. EOS, 88(52), 578-579.

Delworth, Thomas L., and Rong Zhang, 2007: Decadal to centennial variability of the Atlantic from observations and models In Ocean Circulation: Mechanisms and Impacts, Geophysical Monograph Series 173, Washington, DC, American Geophysical Union, 131-148.
[ Abstract ]

Delworth, Thomas L., and Kirsten L Findell, 2007: Decadal to centennial scale changes in summer continental hydrology In Climate Variability and Change: Past, Present, and Future, John E. Kutzbach Symposium, Gisela Kutzbach, Ed., Madison, WI, Ctr. of Climatic Research, U. Wisconsin-Madison, 49-56.
[ Abstract ]

Meehl, G A., C Covey, Thomas L Delworth, M Latif, B McAveney, J F B Mitchell, Ronald J Stouffer, and K E Taylor, 2007: The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: A new era in climate change research. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88(9), 1383-1394.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Zhang, Rong, Thomas L Delworth, and Isaac Held, 2007: Can the Atlantic Ocean drive the observed multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature? Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L02709, doi:10.1029/2006GL028683.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Zhang, Rong, and Thomas L Delworth, December 2007: Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on North Pacific climate variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L23708, doi:10.1029/2007GL031601.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Farneti, Riccardo, 2007: Coupled interannual Rossby waves in a quasigeostrophic ocean-atmosphere model. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37(5), 1192-1214.
[ Abstract PDF ]


Findell, Kirsten L., Elena Shevliakova, P C D Milly, and Ronald J Stouffer, July 2007: Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Journal of Climate, 20(14), 3621-3634.
[ Abstract PDF ]


Donner, S D., Thomas R Knutson, and M Oppenheimer, March 2007: Model-based assessment of the role of human-induced climate change in the 2005 Caribbean coral bleaching event. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104(13), 5483-5488.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Frappier, A, Thomas R Knutson, K-B Liu, and K A Emanuel, 2007: Perspective: coordinating paleoclimate research on tropical cyclones with hurricane-climate theory and modelling. Tellus A, 59(4), 529-537.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Knutson, Thomas R., Joseph J Sirutis, Stephen T Garner, Isaac Held, and Robert E Tuleya, 2007: Simulation of the Recent Multidecadal Increase of Atlantic Hurricane Activity Using an 18-km-Grid Regional Model. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88(10), 1549-1565.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Shepherd, J M., and Thomas R Knutson, 2007: The current debate on the linkage between global warming and hurricanes. Geography Compass, 1(1), 1-24.
[ Abstract PDF ]


Eng, K, and P C D Milly, 2007: Relating low-flow characteristics to the base flow recession time constant at partial record stream gauges. Water Resources Research, 43, W01201, doi:10.1029/2006WR005293.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Eng, K, P C D Milly, and G D Tasker, November 2007: Flood regionalization: A hybrid geographic and predictor-variable region-of-influence regression method. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 12(6), 585-591.
[ Abstract PDF ]


Federov, A, M Barreiro, G Boccaletti, Ronald C Pacanowski, and S G H Philander, 2007: The freshening of surface waters in high latitudes: Effects on the thermohaline and wind-driven circulations. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37(4), 896-907.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Griffies, Stephen, Matthew J Harrison, Ronald C Pacanowski, and Anthony Rosati, 2007: Ocean modelling with MOM. Clivar Exchanges, 12(3), 3-5, 13.
[ PDF ]


Zavala-Garay, J, C Zhang, A M Moore, Andrew T Wittenberg, Matthew J Harrison, Anthony Rosati, J Vialard, and R Kleeman, 2008: Sensitivity of hybrid ENSO models to unresolved atmospheric variability. Journal of Climate, 21(15), 3704-3721.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Song, Qian, G A Vecchi, and Anthony Rosati, June 2007: The role of Indonesian throughflow in the Indo-Pacific climate variability in the GFDL coupled climate model. Journal of Climate, 20(11), 2434-2451.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Song, Qian, G A Vecchi, and Anthony Rosati, July 2007: Indian Ocean Variability in the GFDL Coupled Climate Model. Journal of Climate, 20(13), 2895-2916.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Sun, C, M M Rienecker, Anthony Rosati, Matthew J Harrison, Andrew T Wittenberg, C L Keppenne, J P Jacob, and R M Kovach, June 2007: Comparison and sensitivity of ODASI ocean analyses in the Tropical Pacific. Monthly Weather Review, 135(6), 2242-2264.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Zhang, Shoaqing, Matthew J Harrison, Anthony Rosati, and Andrew T Wittenberg, 2007: System Design and Evaluation of Coupled Ensemble Data Assimilation for Global Oceanic Climate Studies. Monthly Weather Review, 135(10), 3541-3564.
[ Abstract PDF ]

AchutaRao, K M., M Ishii, B D Santer, P J Gleckler, K E Taylor, D W Pierce, Ronald J Stouffer, and T M L Wigley, June 2007: Simulated and observed variability in ocean temperature and heat content. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104(26), 10768-10773.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Came, R E., W B Curry, D W Oppo, Anthony J Broccoli, Ronald J Stouffer, and J Lynch-Stieglitz, 2007: North Atlantic intermediate depth variability during the Younger Dryas: Evidence from Benthic Foraminiferal Mg/Ca and the GFDL R30 Coupled Climate Model In Ocean Circulation: Mechanisms and Impacts, Geophysical Monograph Series 173, Washington, DC, American Geophysical Union, 247-263.
[ Abstract ]

Manabe, Syukuro, and Ronald J Stouffer, 2007: Role of ocean in global warming. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 85B, 385-403.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Randall, D A., and Ronald J Stouffer, et al., 2007: Climate models and their evaluation In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, 589-662.
Solomon, S, D Qin, M Manning, V Ramaswamy, and Ronald J Stouffer, et al., 2007: Technical summary In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, 19-92.

Stouffer, Ronald J., D Seidov, and B J Haupt, 2007: Climate response to external sources of freshwater: North Atlantic versus the Southern Ocean. Journal of Climate, 20(3), 436-448.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Stouffer, Ronald J., and Richard T Wetherald, 2007: Changes of Variability in Response to Increasing Greenhouse Gases. Part I: Temperature. Journal of Climate, 20(21), 5455-5467.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Timmermann, A, Y Okumura, S I An, A C Clement, B Dong, E Guilyardi, A Hu, J H Jungclaus, M Renold, T F Stocker, Ronald J Stouffer, R Sutton, S Xie, and J Yin, 2007: The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on ENSO. Journal of Climate, 20(19), 4899-4919.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Yin, J, and Ronald J Stouffer, 2007: Comparison of the Stability of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation in Two Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models. Journal of Climate, 20(17), 4293-4315.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Lu, Jian, G A Vecchi, and Thomas Reichler, 2007: Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L06805, doi:10.1029/2006GL028443.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Seager, R, Mingfang Ting, Isaac Held, Y Kushnir, Jian Lu, G A Vecchi, H-P Huang, N Harnik, Ants Leetma, Ngar-Cheung Lau, C Li, Jennifer Velez, and N Naik, 2007: Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science, 316(5828), 1181-1184.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Vecchi, G A., and Brian J Soden, 2007: Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Vecchi, G A., and Matthew J Harrison, July 2007: An observing system simulation experiment for the Indian Ocean. Journal of Climate, 20(13), 3300-3319.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Vecchi, G A., and Brian J Soden, 2007: Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation. Journal of Climate, 20(17), 4316-4340.
[ Abstract PDF ]

Vecchi, G A., and Brian J Soden, 2007: Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity. Nature, 450(7172), 1066-1070.
[ Abstract PDF ]