Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Rose 0.7 Percent in November from October
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BTS 2-08
Dave Smallen
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Wednesday, January 9, 2008 - The Freight
Transportation Services Index (TSI) rose 0.7 percent in November from its October
level, rising for the second consecutive month, the U.S. Department of Transportation's
Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).
The November rise was the fourth in the last five months (Table 2). At 110.2, the freight TSI is down 2.6 percent from
its peak of 113.1 achieved in November 2005 and up 1.9 percent in the two
months from its recent low of 108.1 in September 2007. For additional
historical data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
The freight TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire freight
transportation industries. The index
consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and
air freight.
The November
increase kept the freight index in positive territory for the year after having
been down for the first nine months. For
the first 11 months of 2007, the freight TSI was up 1.2 percent. In 2006, the index declined 2.7 percent
during the 11-month period (Table 3).
The
November freight TSI of 110.2 was up 1.8 percent from its November 2006 level, its
best November-to-November performance in the last three years (Table 4).
The
November index remains lower than November levels of the recent past, 1.1
percent lower than the November 2004 level and 2.6 percent lower than the November
2005 level. Despite declines from these
recent November levels, the freight index has increased 6.3 percent in five
years and 14.6 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The TSI is an index of the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by for-hire
transportation industries. It includes
historic data from 1990 to the present. The TSI is still under
development and is considered experimental. The seasonally adjusted index
measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. Release of the December index is scheduled for
Feb. 13.
BTS has issued
a new technical report explaining the TSI. BTS Technical Report:
Transportation Services Index and the Economy is available for download at
https://www.bts.gov/pdc/index.xml in the BTS bookstore.
Transportation Services
Index for Passengers
The TSI for passengers fell 0.9
percent in November from its October level, falling for the second consecutive
month (Table 6). The Passenger TSI November
2007 level of 115.0 was 1.8 percent higher than the November 2006 level, marking
six consecutive annual increases since November 2001 (Table 7). For the first 11
months of 2007, the passenger TSI rose 0.7 percent, the smallest of the six
consecutive increases during the first 11 months (Table 3). The passenger index is up 19.8 percent in
five years and 28.3 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The passenger TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire passenger
transportation industries. The seasonally
adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.
Combined Freight and Passenger Index
The combined freight and passenger TSI
rose 0.3 percent in November from its October level, rising for the second
consecutive month (Table 8). The combined TSI November 2007 level of 111.0 was 1.8
percent higher than the November 2006 level (Table 9). For the first 11 months of 2007, the combined TSI rose 1.1
percent (Table 3). The combined index is up 9.6 percent in five years and 18.1
percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The combined TSI
merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.
More on TSI
NOTE: TSI numbers for July (Freight, Passenger and Combined) were
revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation
services. The July Freight TSI is 108.4, revised from the 108.5 reported in the
December release. The July Passenger TSI is 116.2, revised from 114.8. The July
Combined TSI is 109.9, revised from 109.7. The TSI for August, September,
October and November are preliminary.
TSI revision policy: TSI
is updated monthly with the latest four months' index numbers considered
preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and
replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. More information
about the monthly revision policy, the 2007 comprehensive revision conducted
with the July release and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
Table 1: Freight,
Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since May 2007
Percent Change by
Month
(Seasonally Adjusted,
Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
May |
109.2 |
-0.1 |
116.5 |
1.5 |
110.6 |
0.3 |
June |
108.4 |
-0.7 |
116.2 |
-0.2 |
109.9 |
-0.6 |
JulyR |
108.4 |
0.1 |
116.2 |
-0.1 |
109.9 |
0.0 |
AugustP |
108.9 |
0.4 |
115.1 |
-0.9 |
110.1 |
0.1 |
SeptemberP |
108.1 |
-0.7 |
117.2 |
1.8 |
109.9 |
-0.1 |
OctoberP |
109.5 |
1.3 |
116.0 |
-1.0 |
110.7 |
0.7 |
NovemberP |
110.2 |
0.7 |
115.0 |
-0.9 |
111.0 |
0.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
-1.5 |
1.7 |
0.4 |
-0.3 |
February |
3.0 |
-0.9 |
-1.4 |
0.0 |
March |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
April |
0.7 |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
May |
-0.4 |
0.0 |
2.4 |
-0.1 |
June |
0.3 |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
-0.7 |
July |
-0.2 |
-0.5 |
-0.9 |
(R) 0.1 |
August |
-0.4 |
1.0 |
-2.5 |
(P) 0.4 |
September |
0.2 |
-1.3 |
0.9 |
(P) -0.7 |
October |
0.2 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
(P) 1.3 |
November |
1.2 |
2.8 |
-1.4 |
(P) 0.7 |
December |
-0.4 |
-1.7 |
0.6 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation
Services Indexes Year-to Date Change, 1998-2007
Percent change from December of previous year
December to November
Excel | CSV
1998 |
4.1 |
3.7 |
4.0 |
1999 |
4.3 |
5.7 |
4.7 |
2000 |
-5.6 |
7.7 |
-1.6 |
2001 |
-0.2 |
-14.3 |
-4.7 |
2002 |
6.6 |
5.2 |
6.2 |
2003 |
0.7 |
2.2 |
1.1 |
2004 |
3.1 |
5.9 |
3.9 |
2005 |
1.9 |
3.2 |
2.3 |
2006 |
-2.7 |
3.8 |
-1.2 |
2007P |
1.2 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the
November Freight TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1998 |
100.8 |
4.8 |
1999 |
104.1 |
3.3 |
2000 |
99.1 |
-4.8 |
2001 |
97.6 |
-1.5 |
2002 |
103.7 |
6.2 |
2003 |
105.3 |
1.6 |
2004 |
111.4 |
5.8 |
2005 |
113.1 |
1.6 |
2006 |
108.3 |
-4.3 |
2007P |
110.2 |
1.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5:
Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2007
(November to November)
Excel | CSV
2006 |
1 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
2005 |
2 |
-2.6 |
4.8 |
-0.9 |
2004 |
3 |
-1.1 |
8.1 |
1.1 |
2003 |
4 |
4.6 |
15.2 |
7.1 |
2002 |
5 |
6.3 |
19.8 |
9.6 |
2001 |
6 |
12.9 |
32.9 |
17.8 |
2000 |
7 |
11.2 |
12.1 |
10.8 |
1999 |
8 |
5.8 |
16.4 |
8.4 |
1998 |
9 |
9.3 |
23.3 |
12.9 |
1997 |
10 |
14.6 |
28.3 |
18.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to October 2007 are all
preliminary.
Table 6: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from previous
month
Excel | CSV
January |
-1.2 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
-0.1 |
February |
1.8 |
-0.1 |
-0.6 |
-2.0 |
March |
1.1 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
April |
0.7 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
May |
-0.3 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
1.5 |
June |
1.6 |
0.1 |
-1.0 |
-0.2 |
July |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
(R) -0.1 |
August |
0.9 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
(P) -0.9 |
September |
-0.2 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
(P) 1.8 |
October |
2.2 |
-1.9 |
0.4 |
(P) -1.0 |
November |
-0.9 |
0.7 |
-0.2 |
(P) -0.9 |
December |
-0.1 |
-0.9 |
1.1 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 7: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the
November Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1998 |
93.3 |
4.0 |
1999 |
98.8 |
6.0 |
2000 |
102.6 |
3.8 |
2001 |
86.5 |
-15.7 |
2002 |
96.0 |
11.0 |
2003 |
99.8 |
3.9 |
2004 |
106.4 |
6.6 |
2005 |
109.8 |
3.2 |
2006 |
113.0 |
2.9 |
2007P |
115.0 |
1.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation
Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
-1.4 |
1.6 |
0.8 |
-0.3 |
February |
2.6 |
-0.7 |
-1.2 |
-0.5 |
March |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
April |
0.7 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
May |
-0.4 |
0.2 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
June |
0.7 |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
-0.6 |
July |
-0.1 |
-0.3 |
-0.6 |
(R) 0.0 |
August |
-0.1 |
0.8 |
-1.9 |
(P) 0.1 |
September |
0.1 |
-0.6 |
0.9 |
(P) -0.1 |
October |
0.7 |
-0.7 |
0.1 |
(P) 0.7 |
November |
0.6 |
2.3 |
-1.1 |
(P) 0.3 |
December |
-0.3 |
-1.5 |
0.7 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 9: Combined Transportation
Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the
November TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1998 |
98.3 |
4.6 |
1999 |
102.4 |
4.1 |
2000 |
100.2 |
-2.1 |
2001 |
94.3 |
-6.0 |
2002 |
101.4 |
7.5 |
2003 |
103.6 |
2.3 |
2004 |
109.8 |
6.0 |
2005 |
112.0 |
2.0 |
2006 |
109.1 |
-2.6 |
2007P |
111.0 |
1.8 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Brief Explanation
of the TSI
The
Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes
in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The
TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or
decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other
economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future
course of the economy. The movement of
the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand
the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross
Domestic Product (GDP).
The
TSI is still under development and is therefore considered experimental. It is
being examined for refinements in data sources, methodologies and
interpretations.
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air
freight.
The
index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private
trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger
air transportation.
The
index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services,
taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized
transportation.
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