Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 0.7 Percent in June from May
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BTS 37-07
Dave Smallen
202-366-5568 |
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Wednesday, August
8, 2007 - The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 0.7 percent
in June from its May level, falling to its lowest level since February after a
one-month rise, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of
Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).
The
June decline was the largest monthly decrease since November 2006 (Table 2). The
freight TSI is down 3.7 percent from its peak of 113.1 achieved in November
2005 but up 0.6 percent from its recent low of 108.3 in November 2006.
The freight TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire freight
transportation industries. The index
consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and
air freight.
For the first
six months of 2007, the freight TSI was virtually unchanged. It was the first
time since 2003 that the freight TSI failed to increase during the first half
of the year and only the third time in 10 years (Table 3).
The
June freight TSI of 108.9 was down 3.4 percent from its June 2006 level, the
largest June-to-June decline in the 17 years of the index (Table 4). For
additional historical data prior to 2004, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
The
June index is at its lowest June level since June 2003, 2.1 percent lower than
the June 2005 level and 1.4 percent lower than the June 2004 level. Despite the recent declines, the freight
index has increased 7.4 percent in five years and 18.1 percent in 10 years
(Table 5).
The TSI is an index of the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by for-hire transportation
industries. It includes historic data
from 1990 to the present. The TSI is still under development and is
considered experimental. The seasonally adjusted index measures changes
from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. Release of the July index is scheduled for Sept.
12.
Transportation Services
Index for Passengers
The TSI for passengers fell 0.7
percent in June from its May level, the first decline after three monthly
increases (Table 6). The Passenger TSI June
2007 level of 114.7 was 3.2 percent higher than the June 2006 level, the fourth
consecutive annual increase (Table 7). For the first six months of 2007, the
passenger TSI rose 0.4 percent, the fourth consecutive year in which the index
has increased during the first six months but the rate of growth has declined
each year (Table 3). The passenger index
is up 21.5 percent in five years and 31.2 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The passenger TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire passenger
transportation industries. The seasonally
adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.
Combined Freight and Passenger Index
The combined freight and passenger TSI
fell 0.7 percent in June from its May level (Table 8). The combined TSI June
2007 level of 110.0 was 1.9 percent lower than the June 2006 level (Table 9). For the first six months of
2007, the combined TSI rose 0.1 percent and has not declined in the
December-to-June period since 2003 (Table 3). The combined index is up 10.8
percent in five years and 21.4 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The combined TSI
merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.
2nd Quarter Changes
On a
quarterly basis, the Freight TSI declined 0.8 percent in the second quarter,
declining after a first-quarter rise. The freight index has declined in four of the last six quarters beginning
with the first quarter of 2006 (Table 10). The Passenger TSI rose 0.1 percent in the second quarter, the smallest quarterly
increase since a decline in the second quarter last year. The passenger index rose in all but two
quarters in the last four years, beginning with the third quarter of 2003 (Table
11). The Combined TSI fell 0.6 percent
in the second quarter and has now declined in three of the last four quarters (Table
12).
More on TSI
NOTE: TSI numbers for February (Freight, Passenger and Combined)
were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component
transportation services. The February Freight TSI is 108.5, revised from the 108.6
reported in the July release. The February Passenger TSI is 111.7, revised from
113.4. The February Combined TSI is 109.0, revised from 109.4. The TSI for
March, April, May and June are preliminary.
TSI revision policy: TSI
is updated monthly with the latest four months' index numbers considered
preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and
replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. More information
about the 2007 comprehensive revision conducted with the July release, the
monthly revision policy and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
Table 1: Freight, Passenger
and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Since December 2006
Percent Change by
Month
(Seasonally Adjusted,
Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
December |
108.9 |
0.6 |
114.2 |
1.1 |
109.8 |
0.7 |
January |
108.5 |
-0.3 |
114.0 |
-0.1 |
109.5 |
-0.3 |
FebruaryR |
108.5 |
0.0 |
111.7 |
-2.0 |
109.0 |
-0.5 |
MarchP |
109.7 |
1.1 |
114.6 |
2.6 |
110.6 |
1.5 |
AprilP |
109.6 |
-0.1 |
115.4 |
0.7 |
110.7 |
0.1 |
MayP |
109.7 |
0.1 |
115.5 |
0.2 |
110.8 |
0.1 |
JuneP |
108.9 |
-0.7 |
114.7 |
-0.7 |
110.0 |
-0.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
-1.5 |
1.7 |
0.4 |
-0.3 |
February |
3.0 |
-0.9 |
-1.4 |
(R) 0.0 |
March |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
(P) 1.1 |
April |
0.7 |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
(P) -0.1 |
May |
-0.4 |
0.0 |
2.4 |
(P) 0.1 |
June |
0.3 |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
(P) -0.7 |
July |
-0.2 |
-0.5 |
-0.9 |
|
August |
-0.4 |
1.0 |
-2.5 |
|
September |
0.2 |
-1.3 |
0.9 |
|
October |
0.2 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
|
November |
1.2 |
2.8 |
-1.4 |
|
December |
-0.4 |
-1.7 |
0.6 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation
Services Indexes Year-to Date Change, 1998-2007
Percent change from December of previous year
December to June
Excel | CSV
1998 |
4.4 |
-0.2 |
3.0 |
1999 |
2.4 |
0.6 |
1.8 |
2000 |
-4.5 |
5.0 |
-1.6 |
2001 |
0.9 |
-0.7 |
0.4 |
2002 |
4.2 |
3.4 |
4.0 |
2003 |
-1.4 |
-4.2 |
-2.2 |
2004 |
2.2 |
3.7 |
2.6 |
2005 |
0.2 |
2.7 |
0.8 |
2006 |
1.3 |
2.1 |
1.5 |
2007P |
0.0 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the June Freight
TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1998 |
101.1 |
9.7 |
1999 |
102.3 |
1.2 |
2000 |
100.2 |
-2.0 |
2001 |
98.7 |
-1.5 |
2002 |
101.4 |
2.7 |
2003 |
103.2 |
1.8 |
2004 |
110.4 |
7.0 |
2005 |
111.2 |
0.7 |
2006 |
112.7 |
1.4 |
2007P |
108.9 |
-3.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5:
Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2007
(June to June)
Excel | CSV
2006 |
1 |
-3.4 |
3.2 |
-1.9 |
2005 |
2 |
-2.1 |
5.0 |
-0.4 |
2004 |
3 |
-1.4 |
10.1 |
1.4 |
2003 |
4 |
5.5 |
22.6 |
9.7 |
2002 |
5 |
7.4 |
21.5 |
10.8 |
2001 |
6 |
10.3 |
14.4 |
10.8 |
2000 |
7 |
8.6 |
14.6 |
9.8 |
1999 |
8 |
6.4 |
21.9 |
10.4 |
1998 |
9 |
7.7 |
27.8 |
12.9 |
1997 |
10 |
18.1 |
31.2 |
21.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to June 2007 are all
preliminary.
Table 6: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
-1.2 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
-0.1 |
February |
1.8 |
-0.1 |
-0.6 |
(R) -2.0 |
March |
1.1 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
(P) 2.6 |
April |
0.7 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
(P) 0.7 |
May |
-0.3 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
(P) 0.2 |
June |
1.6 |
0.1 |
-1.0 |
(P) -0.7 |
July |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
|
August |
0.9 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
|
September |
-0.2 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
|
October |
2.2 |
-1.9 |
0.4 |
|
November |
-0.9 |
0.7 |
-0.2 |
|
December |
-0.1 |
-0.9 |
1.1 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 7: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the June
Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1998 |
89.8 |
2.7 |
1999 |
94.1 |
4.8 |
2000 |
100.1 |
6.4 |
2001 |
100.3 |
0.2 |
2002 |
94.4 |
-5.9 |
2003 |
93.6 |
-0.9 |
2004 |
104.2 |
11.3 |
2005 |
109.3 |
4.9 |
2006 |
111.2 |
1.7 |
2007P |
114.7 |
3.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation
Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
-1.4 |
1.6 |
0.8 |
-0.3 |
February |
2.6 |
-0.7 |
-1.2 |
(R) -0.5 |
March |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
(P) 1.5 |
April |
0.7 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
(P) 0.1 |
May |
-0.4 |
0.2 |
2.0 |
(P) 0.1 |
June |
0.7 |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
(P) -0.7 |
July |
-0.1 |
-0.3 |
-0.6 |
|
August |
-0.1 |
0.8 |
-1.9 |
|
September |
0.1 |
-0.6 |
0.9 |
|
October |
0.7 |
-0.7 |
0.1 |
|
November |
0.6 |
2.3 |
-1.1 |
|
December |
-0.3 |
-1.5 |
0.7 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 9: Combined Transportation
Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the June
TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1998 |
97.4 |
7.5 |
1999 |
99.6 |
2.3 |
2000 |
100.2 |
0.6 |
2001 |
99.2 |
-1.0 |
2002 |
99.3 |
0.0 |
2003 |
100.3 |
1.0 |
2004 |
108.5 |
8.2 |
2005 |
110.4 |
1.8 |
2006 |
112.1 |
1.5 |
2007P |
110.0 |
-1.9 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 10: Freight Transportation
Services Index Change by Quarter, 1998-2007
Percentage change
from the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
1998 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
-1.3 |
0.1 |
1999 |
2.9 |
-0.4 |
1.7 |
0.9 |
2000 |
-4.8 |
0.3 |
-1.4 |
-0.9 |
2001 |
1.6 |
-0.7 |
-1.3 |
-0.1 |
2002 |
1.6 |
2.6 |
1.1 |
2.0 |
2003 |
-1.5 |
0.1 |
1.2 |
3.5 |
2004 |
1.6 |
0.6 |
-0.4 |
1.0 |
2005 |
0.9 |
-0.7 |
-0.7 |
0.8 |
2006 |
-0.5 |
1.8 |
-2.5 |
-0.9 |
2007 |
(P)
0.8 |
(P)
-0.8 |
|
|
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 11: Passenger Transportation
Services Index Change by Quarter, 1998-2007
Percentage change
from the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
1998 |
-0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
3.9 |
1999 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
3.3 |
-1.9 |
2000 |
4.1 |
0.9 |
2.5 |
-1.6 |
2001 |
-0.5 |
-0.2 |
-21.0 |
15.2 |
2002 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
-0.6 |
4.1 |
2003 |
-4.0 |
-0.2 |
5.0 |
2.3 |
2004 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
2005 |
1.8 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
-2.1 |
2006 |
2.2 |
-0.1 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
2007 |
(P)
0.4 |
(P)
0.1 |
|
|
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 12: Combined Transportation
Services Index Change by Quarter, 1998-2007
Percentage change
from the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
1998 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
-0.8 |
1.2 |
1999 |
2.0 |
-0.2 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
2000 |
-2.1 |
0.5 |
-0.2 |
-1.2 |
2001 |
0.9 |
-0.5 |
-7.4 |
3.9 |
2002 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
0.6 |
2.6 |
2003 |
-2.2 |
0.0 |
2.2 |
3.2 |
2004 |
1.6 |
1.0 |
-0.1 |
1.0 |
2005 |
1.2 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
0.1 |
2006 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
-1.6 |
-0.4 |
2007 |
(P)
0.7 |
(P)
-0.6 |
|
|
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Brief Explanation
of the TSI
The
Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes
in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The
TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or
decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other
economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future
course of the economy. The movement of
the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand
the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross
Domestic Product (GDP).
The
TSI is still under development and is therefore considered experimental. It is
being examined for refinements in data sources, methodologies and
interpretations.
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air
freight.
The
index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private
trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger
air transportation.
The
index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services,
taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized
transportation.
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