JFM 2000 Quarterly Rpt. sidebar
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(Quarterly
Report for Jan-Feb-Mar 2000)
Resource
Ecology and Ecosystems Modeling Program
Laboratory analysis was performed on 1,062
groundfish stomachs from the eastern Bering Sea and
508 from the Gulf of Alaska. No observers
returned with stomach samples during the quarter.
Eastern and Western Bering Sea Comparisons
We are collaborating with Russian scientists at
the Pacific Fisheries Research Center (TINRO) in
Vladivostok, Russia, in the development of a
mass-balance model of the western Bering Sea for the
1980s period. A preliminary model has just
been completed and will be compared with the eastern
Bering Sea mass-balance model that already exists
for the same period.
By Pat Livingston.
Age and Growth Program
Estimated production figures for 1 January
to 31 March 2000 were 4,627 walleye pollock, 161
sablefish, 420 Atka mackerel, 1,805 Pacific whiting,
198 northern rockfish, and 498 light dusky rockfish.
Total production figures were 7,709 with 952
test ages, and 53 examined and determined to be
unageable.
At the request of the Stock Assessment Program, the
Groundfish Observer Program has changed the sampling
of fisheries to small random samples collected by
all at-sea observers. For 1999 samples, the
Age and Growth Program spent time relabeling and
restoring otolith vials into Styrofoam boxes. This
task, required before age determination, has been
completed for the 1999 samples and will be carried
out by the Observer Program in the future. The
change in sampling method should allow the
collection and age determination of a wider variety
of species than in the past.
By Dan Kimura.
U.S. Groundfish Observer Program
During the first quarter of 2000, 284
observers were trained, briefed, and equipped for
deployment to fishing and processing vessels and
shoreside plants in the Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea,
and Aleutian Islands region. They sampled
aboard 312 fishing and processing vessels and at 26
shoreside processing plants. These observers
were trained or briefed in various locations. The
University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA) Observer
Training Center trained 35 first-time
observers, and another 99 observers with prior
experience were briefed at this site. The
Alaska Fisheries Science Center (AFSC) Observer
Program in Seattle briefed 136 observers. At
the Observer Program’s field office in Dutch
Harbor, 3 more observers were briefed,and 11 were
excused from briefing because they had just
completed a cruise successfully and were returning
immediately to the field. The first quarter
2000 observer workforce thus comprised 12% new
observers and 88% experienced observers.
The Observer Program conducted a total of 93
debriefings during the first quarter of 2000. Three
debriefings were held in Kodiak, 4 in Dutch Harbor,
18 in Anchorage, and 65 were held in Seattle.
CDQ and AFA Fisheries
Implementation of an expanded Community Development
Quota (CDQ) Program and implementation of provisions
of the recently enacted American Fisheries Act (AFA)
continued during 2000. The CDQ program was
developed for the purpose of allocating fishery
resources to eligible western Alaska communities to
provide the means for starting or supporting
commercial fishery activities that would result in
ongoing, regionally-based, commercial fishery or
related businesses. The CDQ Program was
initiated in 1992 with pollock and expanded to
include fixed-gear halibut and sablefish in 1995.
In 1998, it was further expanded to include
multiple species of groundfish and crab (MSCDQ).
In 1999, NMFS became responsible for
monitoring the groundfish (including pollock and
sablefish) and halibut CDQs and the state of Alaska
for monitoring the crab CDQs. This division of
responsibility continues into 2000.
The AFA, enacted by Congress in late 1998, made
changes to the pollock fishery in the Bering Sea and
Aleutian Islands region. These changes
included reallocation of fish among industry
segments, provided for the formation of fishing
cooperatives, and increased observer coverage levels
on some components of the fleet. The offshore
component of the fleet has organized a fishing
cooperative this year and has been receiving
increased, mandatory observer coverage. More
recently, the Observer Program has been involved in
implementation of aspects of the AFA related to
shoreside processors. The shoreside component
has proven to be more complex than offshore and will
involve possible NMFS regulatory actions and a
changing role for the observer.
The MSCDQ and AFA catch accounting for offshore
processors is based entirely on data collected by
observers and, unlike the open access fisheries
where observer data is used to manage a fleet- wide
quota, industry participants in the MSCDQ and AFA
fisheries require individual accounting of fish
harvested in each haul or set. This change in
expectations placed on observers, their data, and
the Observer Program in general has required much
Observer Program staff effort in the development of
special selection criteria and training requirements
for observers, development of new sampling
strategies and regulations to enhance the
observer’s working environment, and changes to the
data collection and data management software
systems.
Observer Program Review
An extensive, independent review of the Observer
Program began in late 1999. The review is
being carried out by Marine Resources Assessment
Group (MRAG) Americas, Inc. MRAG is an
independent consulting firm which provides
professional advice and services for the management
of marine fisheries throughout the world. The
purpose of this review is to provide recommendations
for changes in Program operations and organization
which might improve the Program’s ability to meet
its mission and goals. Their final report is
due 30 April 2000. MRAG is also under contract
to design a multispecies, biological sampling
protocol and statistically-based method of catch
estimation for use by observers. The
completion of this second project is expected in
November 2001.
In addition to the MRAG review, the Observer Program
is also being reexamined this year, along with all
other NMFS observer programs, through the annual
NMFS management control review process. The
newly established National Observer Program Advisory
Team (NOPAT) will be actively involved in this
endeavor. NOPAT is made up of representatives
from all NMFS regional offices, fisheries science
centers, and observer programs and is coordinated
through the National Observer Program office of
NMFS.
Cadre Takes Shape
Office space is being constructed in Anchorage
for 10 new Observer Program employees. These
new employees and the existing two positions in
Anchorage will make up the Observer Program
“Cadre.” The cadre will be an inherently
flexible unit of employees that can be deployed as
needed to ports throughout Alaska. They will
increase the Observer Program’s presence in the
field and allow for more front-line communication
between NMFS, observers, and the fishing industry.
The new offices are scheduled to be ready for
occupancy sometime in May of this year with the
first of the cadre prepared for deployment in August
2000.
By Bob Maier.
Socioeconomic Assessments Program
Cost, Earnings, and Employment Survey
Cost, Earnings, and Employment surveys were
delivered to all participants in the Bering
Sea-Aleutian Islands (BSAI) pollock fishery in
mid-January. The participants include owners
of catcher vessels, catcher processors, shoreside
processing plants, and motherships. To date,
the response rate to the voluntary survey has been
low. Center economists have been in contact
with survey recipients and relevant industry
organizations to encourage more responses. It
is hoped that the passing of the 1999 tax season and
these discussions will produce more responses.
Preliminary Capacity Report
Typically, there is said to be excess fishing
capacity when the existing fleet is capable of
catching more than the optimum yield. Excess
fishing capacity often results in significant
economic losses even when it does not result in
overexploitation of fish stocks. Excess
fishing capacity has been identified nationally and
internationally as a major fishery management
problem. Members of the Socioeconomic Program
conducted a qualitative assessment of excess fishing
capacity for Federally regulated fisheries off
Alaska as part of a NMFS initiative to assess and
address the problem of excess fishing capacity.
The qualitative assessment will be followed by
a quantitative assessment that will be
completed by the end of August 2000.
Qualitative assessments were preformed for five
fisheries: Gulf of Alaska (GOA) groundfish, Bering
Sea-Aleutian Islands (BSAI) groundfish, Alaska king
and Tanner crabs, Alaska weathervane scallops, and
the Pacific halibut and sablefish IFQ (individual
fishing quota) fisheries. The qualitative
assessment provided direct and indirect evidence to
address the following four questions:
1) Are catches regularly exceeding
the levels recommended by fishery managers?
2) Could the current fleet catch
more than the recommended levels if not
constrained by regulations such as season length
or quotas?
3) Could a smaller fleet take the
recommended catch levels at lower cost than the
present fleet?
4) Are there incentives in place
that are likely to lead to increases or the
maintenance of excess capacity?
Because relatively
good data exist on catches in these fisheries,
answering the first question is simple. In
general, harvests in excess of recommended levels
are not a problem in Alaska fisheries. The
answer to questions two and three is probably
“yes” for most fisheries off Alaska, though
there are important differences in the nature and
magnitude of the adverse effects of excess capacity
among these fisheries. The answer to the
fourth question is “yes,” except for the
sablefish and halibut IFQ fisheries and the BSAI
pollock fishery. As long as there are no
incentives in place to fuel further investments in
capacity and catches are controlled, it may be
unnecessary or even counterproductive to reduce
capacity directly. On the other hand, if there is
reason to fear the excess capacity will spill over
into other fisheries, it may be necessary to reduce
capacity directly.
The general, qualitative assessments for each
fishery follow. Gulf of Alaska Groundfish:Excess
Capacity Exists. Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands
Groundfish: Excess Capacity Exists. Halibut and
Sablefish:Excess Capacity Exists. Alaska King and
Tanner Crab Fisheries: Excess Capacity Exists.
Alaska Weathervane Scallop Fishery: Excess Capacity
Exists.
By Joe Terry.
Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Fishery
Management Action
NMFS has placed a high priority on preparing a
document that would provide guidance on
understanding and meeting the procedural and
analytical requirements of Executive Order 12866 and
the Regulatory Flexibility Act for regulatory
actions for Federally-managed fisheries. AFSC
economists contributed substantially to the
preparation of the latest draft of the guidelines.
NMFS Economics and Social Science Conference
Center economists participated in the NMFS Economics
and Social Science Conference in La Jolla in
February. Dan Holland and Todd Lee presented
“Cost-Earnings Survey Design Issues." The
presentation covered many issues related to using
accounting data for economic analysis. Holland
presented “Using Random Utility Models in
Commercial Fishing." This paper addresses
how variations in catch rates and cost, and
individuals’ past behavior can be used to model
fishery and location choice at the individual level.
The paper also discussed how these individual
level models can be used to predict the distribution
of effort at the aggregate level.
Lee presented “The effect of fishery attributes on
participation rate: A conjoint analysis with
applicability to IMPLAN.” This paper used
stated preference data by recreational anglers to
predict participation rates as a function of fishery
characteristics. Results from the behavior
model were then linked to a regional economic impact
model.
By Joe Terry.
Status Of Stocks and Multispecies Assessment
Program
AFSC-ADF&G Joint Research Meeting
The AFSC and the Alaska Department of Fish and Game
held a joint groundfish research meeting 28-29
February 2000 at the Center’s Sand Point
facilities in Seattle. This was the second
annual meeting, and 32 groundfish fisheries
scientists attended. The purpose of the
meeting was to brief scientists from both
institutions on ongoing or planned research programs
and to foster cooperation between the two agencies.
Discussions focused on the groundfish survey effort
planned for the year 2000. Surveys will
include trawl surveys in the EBS, AI and GOA,
fishery oceanographic surveys for walleye pollock,
adaptive sampling trawl surveys for rockfish,
sablefish longline surveys and EBS, AI and GOA echo
integration-trawl surveys for pollock. Research
activities were also discussed, such as effects of
fishing studies using acoustics and trawl
catchability-performance research, life
history-biological research, and essential fish
habitat research. Assessment scientists
described their plans for utilizing survey data in
groundfish stock assessments for the year 2000.
The meeting provided a forum for discussion of
cooperative research plans.
By Anne Hollowed.
Sixth National Stock Assessment Workshop
The sixth NMFS National Stock Assessment Workshop
was held in Seattle during 28-30 March 2000. The
theme of the workshop was “Incorporating ecosystem
considerations into stock assessments and management
advice.” Approximately 28 AFSC scientists
joined colleagues from other fisheries science
centers and headquarters. A total of 45 papers
and posters were presented during four sessions
focusing on ecosystem properties, biological and
technological interactions, short- and long-term
climate effects, and secondary effects of fishing.
The following 12 papers and posters were contributed
by AFSC scientists:
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“Ecosystem considerations in
fisheries management: Linking ecosystem
management goals with ecosystem research,” by
Pat Livingston.
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“Incorporating spatial
dynamics of fish and fishermen in models of
marine protected areas on Georges Bank,” by
Dan Holland.
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“Measures of overfishing based
on MSY,” by Charles Fowler
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“Evaluation of single-species
versus multi-species models in the context of
managing for maximum sustainable yield,” by
Grant Thompson.
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“The bycatch and mixed species
yield-per-recruit of flatfish fisheries on the
Eastern Bering Sea shelf,” by Paul Spencer and
Tom Wilderbuer.
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“Use of surficial sediment
information and species assemblage analysis for
improving trawl survey stratification and
abundance estimation,” by Mark Zimmermann.
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“Multispecies perspectives on
the Bering Sea groundfish fishery management
regime,” by Jesus Jurado-Molina and Pat
Livingston.
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“The influence of spatial
dynamics on predation mortality of Bering Sea
walleye pollock,” by Pat Livingston, Paul
Spencer, Troy Buckley, Angie Greig, and Doug
Smith.
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“Carrying capacity of apex
predators and the frequency and cadence of
physical forcing in marine food webs,” by
Kerim Aydin.
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“Climate forcing effects on
trophically-linked groundfish populations:
implications for fisheries management,” by
Jesus Jurado-Molina and Pat Livingston.
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“Steller sea lion-induced
changes in the management of pollock and Atka
mackerel fisheries in the North Pacific,
1998-2000,” by Lowell Fritz.
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“Straying from the Eco path (a
critique/demo of the ECOPATH/ECOSIM/ECOSPACE
Programs),” by Kerim Aydin and Chris Boggs.
In addition to
presentation of papers and posters, the workshop
afforded the opportunity for NMFS scientists to
share information and develop recommendations in
discussion groups corresponding to the topics of the
workshop sessions. Two of the four discussion
groups were chaired by REFM scientists Anne Hollowed
and Pat Livingston. The workshop concluded
with a plenary session in which participants
reviewed reports of the discussion groups and
developed additional recommendations for future
research.
The proceedings of the workshop, consisting of
abstracts, discussion group reports, and plenary
session recommendations will appear in the near
future as a NOAA Technical Memorandum.
By Grant Thompson.
Walleye Pollock Study
Study was completed on the spatial and temporal
differences in growth and productivity of walleye
pollock in the Eastern Bering Sea. Survey and
commercial fishery databases were used to
investigate spatial and temporal differences in
growth and productivity of walleye pollock in the
eastern Bering Sea. In addition, age-3
recruitment was correlated with regional time series
of oceanographic and atmospheric variables, adult
pollock numbers, and commercial catch data (assumed
to be an index of incidental catch/mortality of
prerecruit pollock).
Cluster analyses on summer bottom trawl length data
suggested that pollock group in distinct clusters
based on size. The northwest and southwest
(outer strata) contained two modes of medium-sized
fish, while the northeast and southeast (inner
strata) contained one mode each of small and large
fish. These strata, defined by cluster
analysis, roughly corresponded to distinct
oceanographic domains of the southeastern Bering Sea
determined by the 7-year PROBES study conducted by
C. P. McRoy et al. in 1986.
Age-length keys were compared statistically using
log-linear analysis to determine if significant
differences existed in age distributions at length
between the strata defined by cluster analysis.
The age-length keys were significantly
different from 1982 to 1996, but not in 1997 and
1998. Further, the use of a single, global
age-length key, instead of local keys, had a
significant impact on the estimated pollock
population-at-age and mean length-at-age.
Age composition results showed that the pollock
population is spatially stratified by age. The
majority of age-1 fish reside demersally over the
northern strata. By age 2, these fish move
upward in the water column and become part of the
pelagic component of the stock. The pelagic
component of the stock (mainly fish age 2 to 5)
becomes progressively more demersal over time.
The inner strata show large sequential
increases in demersal numbers-at-age for older age
groups.
Nonlinear regression analysis showed statistically
significant differences in growth between the four
cluster-defined strata of the eastern Bering Sea.
Within a horizontal cline (west to east), fish
from the outer shelf were bigger at age than fish
from the inner shelf through age 4. From age 7
and older, fish from the inner shelf were bigger at
age than fish from the outer shelf. Within a
vertical cline (north to south), fish from the south
were slightly larger at age than fish from the
north. The age composition and mean
length-at-age results suggest that a seasonal
migration of adult pollock onto the inner shelf is
taking place.
The eastern Bering Sea pollock population and
biomass have shown decreasing trends over the last
15 years. Potential reasons for this decline
were identified through cross-correlation analysis,
which identified factors that were significantly
associated with recruitment success. The two
most important environmental variables were ocean
bottom temperature and wind stress. Above
average water temperature at age 1 and wind stress
directing prerecruit pollock toward the northern
inner shelf were associated with above average
future age-3 recruitment.
Correlation analysis showed that large numbers of
old, adult pollock were associated with below
average future age-3 recruitment. This
negative association suggests that there is a
density-dependent relationship between the number of
spawners and future recruits.
Commercial pollock catch in the southwest stratum
when prerecruits are 2 years old is negatively
associated with the number of age 3 recruits the
following year. Because the quantity of fish
caught in the southwest stratum has significantly
increased over the last 5 years, spatial trends in
juvenile bycatch rates should be examined further.
For more information about this study, contact Anne
Hollowed at anne.hollowed@noaa.gov
or 206-526-4223.
By Chris Shuck.
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