FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

THURSDAY, AUGUST 13, 2009, AT 8:30 A.M. EDT


Timothy Winters / Ian Thomas                                                                                                                                                                                            CB09-117
Service Sector Statistics Division
(301) 763-2713

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES


JULY 2009

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $342.3 billion, a decrease of 0.1 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 8.3 percent (±0.7%) below July 2008. Total sales for the May through July 2009 period were down 9.0 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The May to June 2009 percent change was revised from +0.6 percent (±0.5%) to +0.8 percent (±0.2%).

Retail trade sales were down 0.1 percent (±0.7%)* from June 2009 and 9.4 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 32.5 percent (±1.5%) from July 2008 and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were down 14.7 percent (±2.0%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.

Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales

(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for August is scheduled to be released September 15, 2009 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

For information, visit the Census Bureau's Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce's STAT-USA (202-482-1986).

* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.



TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--July 2009

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Jul(3) Jun May Jul Jun Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 342,309 342,497 339,873 373,327 376,055 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 283,614 285,205 283,656 310,006 309,181 Retail ....................................... 303,950 304,304 301,595 335,340 338,088 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 92,232 92,797 98,534 98,185 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 58,695 57,292 56,217 63,321 66,874 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 52,240 50,797 49,701 56,762 60,221 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 7,734 7,803 7,806 8,882 8,908 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,156 8,275 8,295 9,554 9,527 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,450 6,448 7,615 7,578 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,825 1,847 1,939 1,949 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 23,626 24,122 24,257 27,695 27,516 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 19,901 20,255 23,426 23,403 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 48,995 49,130 49,055 49,410 49,238 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 43,741 43,877 43,744 44,210 44,058 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,440 3,487 3,495 3,480 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 21,316 21,168 21,062 20,476 20,486 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 17,575 17,472 16,938 16,940 447 Gasoline stations................................ 29,500 30,132 28,353 43,727 43,798 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 17,131 17,027 17,290 18,540 18,583 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (S) (S) (S) (S) 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 2,897 2,927 3,204 3,219 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,113 2,113 2,298 2,315 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 6,998 7,136 7,103 7,473 7,432 452 General merchandise stores....................... 48,370 48,747 49,032 50,743 50,438 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 15,129 15,372 15,569 17,102 16,977 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 33,375 33,463 33,641 33,461 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 29,526 29,605 29,806 29,659 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,849 3,858 3,835 3,802 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,371 9,447 9,462 10,131 9,932 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 24,058 24,025 23,663 25,388 25,356 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 17,109 17,053 17,111 17,157 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 38,359 38,193 38,278 37,987 37,967 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics.html (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/retail (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--July 2009

Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 7 month total % Chg. 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2009 from Jul(2) Jun May Jul Jun Code 2008 (a) (p) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 2,349,224 -9.5 355,243 351,360 354,668 385,909 380,431 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 1,941,502 -7.3 289,951 289,257 294,559 315,525 310,307 Retail ....................................... 2,081,672 -10.8 315,119 312,518 313,979 346,516 341,970 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 88,374 93,069 94,238 93,638 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 407,722 -18.9 65,292 62,103 60,109 70,384 70,124 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 362,083 -20.8 58,404 55,166 53,528 63,346 63,232 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 42,453 40,941 49,741 48,953 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,937 6,581 7,038 6,892 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 53,030 -13.6 8,036 7,764 7,689 9,122 8,650 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,133 4,261 4,754 4,520 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,631 3,428 4,368 4,130 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 55,444 -9.7 7,701 7,767 7,673 8,983 8,818 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,057 6,061 7,158 7,017 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,710 1,612 1,825 1,801 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 173,038 -11.8 26,122 29,070 29,489 30,743 31,532 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 23,005 22,989 26,214 25,930 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 338,918 0.2 50,886 48,858 51,017 50,934 48,743 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 303,894 -0.3 45,359 43,614 45,450 45,536 43,617 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,440 3,606 3,691 3,438 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 146,633 3.3 21,273 21,062 21,167 20,312 19,994 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 17,364 17,559 16,786 16,449 447 Gasoline stations................................ 199,515 -33.2 33,836 33,205 30,451 49,280 47,784 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 110,291 -6.9 16,129 15,698 17,573 17,377 17,026 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 731 779 710 814 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,842 3,187 2,906 3,139 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 6,019 6,557 7,024 6,482 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 1,925 2,149 2,206 2,107 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 45,605 -2.8 6,578 6,801 6,627 6,950 6,904 452 General merchandise stores....................... 325,520 -1.2 46,964 47,362 50,331 48,611 49,314 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 98,572 -7.9 13,986 14,259 15,434 15,478 15,970 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 14,621 15,838 15,937 16,445 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 33,103 34,897 33,133 33,344 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 29,319 30,908 29,448 29,629 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,784 3,989 3,685 3,715 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 64,643 -4.9 9,583 9,936 9,982 10,315 10,079 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 161,313 -5.0 22,719 22,892 21,871 23,505 23,002 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 16,733 16,081 16,461 16,093 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 267,552 1.6 40,124 38,842 40,689 39,393 38,461 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics.html (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.

TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--July 2009

Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Jul Jun 2009 2009 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jun Jul May Jun Code 2009 2008 2009 2008 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -0.1 -8.3 +0.8 -8.9 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -0.6 -8.5 +0.5 -7.8 Retail .................................. -0.1 -9.4 +0.9 -10.0 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +2.4 -7.3 +1.9 -14.3 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +2.8 -8.0 +2.2 -15.6 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -0.9 -12.9 0.0 -12.4 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -1.4 -14.6 -0.2 -13.1 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -2.1 -14.7 -0.6 -12.3 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -0.3 -0.8 +0.2 -0.2 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -0.3 -1.1 +0.3 -0.4 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.7 +4.1 +0.5 +3.3 447 Gasoline stations................................ -2.1 -32.5 +6.3 -31.2 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +0.6 -7.6 -1.5 -8.4 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -1.9 -6.4 +0.5 -4.0 452 General merchandise stores....................... -0.8 -4.7 -0.6 -3.4 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -1.6 -11.5 -1.3 -9.5 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -0.8 -7.5 -0.2 -4.9 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +0.1 -5.2 +1.5 -5.2 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.4 +1.0 -0.2 +0.6 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.

TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--July 2009

Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Jul Jun 2009 2009 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jun Jul May Jun Code 2009 2008 2009 2008 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +1.1 -7.9 -0.9 -7.6 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.2 -8.1 -1.8 -6.8 Retail .................................. +0.8 -9.1 -0.5 -8.6 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +5.1 -7.2 +3.3 -11.4 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +5.9 -7.8 +3.1 -12.8 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +3.5 -11.9 +1.0 -10.2 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -0.8 -14.3 +1.2 -11.9 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -10.1 -15.0 -1.4 -7.8 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +4.2 -0.1 -4.2 +0.2 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +4.0 -0.4 -4.0 0.0 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +1.0 +4.7 -0.5 +5.3 447 Gasoline stations................................ +1.9 -31.3 +9.0 -30.5 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +2.7 -7.2 -10.7 -7.8 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -3.3 -5.4 +2.6 -1.5 452 General merchandise stores....................... -0.8 -3.4 -5.9 -4.0 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -1.9 -9.6 -7.6 -10.7 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -3.6 -7.1 -0.5 -1.4 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -0.8 -3.3 +4.7 -0.5 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +3.3 +1.9 -4.5 +1.0 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.
SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services--JULY 2009 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Timothy Winters (301) 763-2713.

Survey Description

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/retail.

Reliability of Estimates

Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.


(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

(2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months.

Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/retail
o Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales

Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: August 13, 2009