Consumer Price Index Summary
FOR TECHNICAL INFORMATION: Stephen B. Reed (202) 691-7000 USDL-09-0937 CPI QUICKLINE: (202) 691-6994 TRANSMISSION OF FOR CURRENT AND HISTORICAL MATERIAL IN THIS INFORMATION: (202) 691-5200 RELEASE IS EMBARGOED MEDIA CONTACT: (202) 691-5902 UNTIL 8:30 A.M. (EDT) INTERNET ADDRESS:http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ Friday, August 14, 2009 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: JULY 2009 CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.2 percent in July before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the last 12 months the index has fallen 2.1 percent, as a 28.1 percent decline in the energy index since its July 2008 peak has more than offset increases of 0.9 percent in the food index and 1.5 percent in the index for all items less food and energy. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U was unchanged in July following a 0.7 percent increase in June. Small declines in the food and energy indexes offset a small increase in the index for all items less food and energy. The food index declined 0.3 percent in July with all six major grocery store food groups posting declines. The energy index, which rose 7.4 percent in June, fell 0.4 percent in July. Decreases in the indexes for gasoline, fuel oil, and electricity more than offset an increase in the index for natural gas. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in July following a 0.2 percent increase in June. The indexes for new vehicles, tobacco, medical care and apparel all continued to increase in July, and the index for airline fares turned up after a long series of declines. In contrast to these increases, the shelter index decreased in July as the index for lodging away from home fell and the indexes for rent and owners' equivalent rent were unchanged. Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) Seasonally adjusted Expenditure Compound Category Changes from preceding month annual Un- rate adjusted 3-mos. 12-mos. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July ended ended 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 July 2009 July 2009 All items.......... .3 .4 -.1 .0 .1 .7 .0 3.4 -2.1 Food and beverages .1 -.1 -.1 -.2 -.2 .1 -.2 -1.4 1.1 Housing........... .0 .0 -.1 -.1 -.1 .0 -.2 -1.0 -.7 Apparel........... .3 1.3 -.2 -.2 -.2 .7 .6 4.5 1.1 Transportation.... 1.3 1.9 -1.1 -.4 .8 4.2 .2 22.7 -14.1 Medical care...... .4 .3 .2 .4 .3 .2 .2 2.8 3.2 Recreation........ .0 .4 .0 -.4 .0 .5 .0 2.1 1.2 Education and communication.. .3 .2 .2 .3 .3 .2 .3 3.1 2.8 Other goods and services....... .3 .2 2.7 2.6 -.2 .3 .8 3.3 7.5 Special indexes: Energy............ 1.7 3.3 -3.0 -2.4 .2 7.4 -.4 32.5 -28.1 Food.............. .1 -.1 -.1 -.2 -.2 .0 -.3 -1.8 .9 All items less food and energy .2 .2 .2 .3 .1 .2 .1 1.7 1.5 The food and beverages index, which rose 0.1 percent in June, fell 0.2 percent in July. The decrease was caused by the food at home index, which declined for the seventh time in the last eight months, falling 0.5 percent. All six major grocery store food group indexes fell, with the largest decreases being a 1.3 percent decline in the index for meats, poultry, fish and eggs and a 0.6 percent decline in the dairy and related products index, which has now fallen for eight months in a row. The cereals and bakery products index posted the smallest decrease of the six groups, falling 0.1 percent. The indexes for fruits and vegetables, for nonalcoholic beverages, and for other food at home all declined 0.3 percent in July. The food at home index has declined 2.6 percent from its peak in November 2008. In contrast to the decline in the food at home index, the food away from home index rose 0.1 percent in July and the index for alcoholic beverages increased 0.3 percent. The housing index fell 0.2 percent in July after being unchanged in June. The index for shelter fell 0.2 percent and the household energy index declined 0.3 percent. Within the shelter group, the indexes for rent and owners' equivalent rent were both unchanged in July after rising 0.1 percent in June. The index for lodging away from home turned down in July, falling 2.1 percent after increasing 0.3 percent in June, and has fallen 8.9 percent over the past 12 months. Within household energy, a 0.9 percent increase in the index for natural gas was more than offset by declines in the other indexes, including a 0.6 percent decrease in the electricity index and a 1.5 percent fall in the fuel oil index. The index for household furnishings and operations, unchanged for each of the previous three months, declined 0.1 percent in July. For the past 12 months, the housing index has declined 0.7 percent, with the shelter index up 0.9 percent and the household energy index down 14.1 percent. After rising 4.2 percent in June, the transportation index increased 0.2 percent in July. Most of the moderation was due to the motor fuel index, which fell 0.4 percent in July after rising 17.2 percent in June. The new vehicle index increased 0.5 percent in July after rising 0.7 percent in June, and the index for used cars and trucks was unchanged in July after rising 0.9 percent in June. The public transportation index, however, turned up in July, rising 1.9 percent after declining 0.5 percent in June. The turnaround was mostly due to the index for airline fares, which rose 2.1 percent in July after declining in each of the previous ten months. Over the past 12 months, the transportation index has fallen 14.1 percent, with several of its components declining. The gasoline index fell 37.3 percent while the index for airline fares declined 16.6 percent and the index for used cars and trucks decreased 7.9 percent. However, the new vehicle index has risen 1.2 percent over the past 12 months. Among other CPI groups, the medical care index rose 0.2 percent in July, the same increase as in June. Within that group, the index for hospital and related services rose 0.7 percent while the index for prescription drugs was unchanged. Over the last 12 months, the medical care index has risen 3.2 percent. The index for other goods and services rose 0.8 percent in July after advancing 0.3 percent in June. The larger increase was driven by the tobacco index, which rose 2.2 percent as excise tax increases in several states went into effect in July. The tobacco index has now risen 27.8 percent over the past year. The apparel index advanced 0.6 percent in July after a 0.7 percent increase in June. The index for education and communication rose 0.3 percent in July after rising 0.2 percent in June, while the index for recreation was unchanged in July after rising 0.5 percent in June. CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) declined 0.2 percent in July, prior to seasonal adjustment. The index value of 210.526 was 2.7 percent lower than in July 2008. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-W was unchanged in July. Table B. Percent changes in CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) Seasonally adjusted Expenditure Compound Category Changes from preceding month annual Un- rate adjusted 3-mos. 12-mos. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July ended ended 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 July 2009 July 2009 All items.......... .3 .4 -.1 .0 .1 .9 .0 4.4 -2.7 Food and beverages .0 -.2 -.1 -.2 -.2 .0 -.2 -1.6 1.0 Housing........... .0 .1 -.1 -.1 .0 -.1 -.1 -.8 -.5 Apparel........... .6 1.0 -.3 -.3 .0 .7 .6 5.5 1.3 Transportation.... 1.5 2.0 -1.3 -.5 .9 4.8 .1 25.8 -15.9 Medical care...... .4 .4 .2 .4 .3 .2 .2 3.0 3.4 Recreation........ .0 .4 .0 -.3 .0 .4 .0 1.6 1.1 Education and communication.. .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .1 .3 2.8 2.4 Other goods and services....... .4 .2 3.9 3.8 -.2 .3 1.0 4.3 10.7 Special indexes: Energy............ 1.9 3.6 -3.1 -2.4 .4 8.1 -.4 36.8 -28.5 Food.............. .0 -.2 -.1 -.2 -.3 .0 -.3 -1.9 .8 All items less food and energy .2 .2 .2 .3 .2 .2 .1 2.1 1.8 Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) decreased 0.2 percent in July on a not seasonally adjusted basis. The index has decreased 1.9 percent over the past year. Please note that the indexes for the post-2007 period are subject to revision. Upcoming release Consumer Price Index data for August are scheduled for release on Wednesday, September 16, 2009, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT). __________________________________________________________________________________ Upcoming Changes to the Consumer Price Index news release Beginning with the next edition of the Consumer Price Index news release scheduled for publication on September 16, 2009, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will introduce changes in the presentation of the text section of the release. There will be no changes to the data or to the format and content of the tables. A sample of the revamped Consumer Price Index news release will be posted on the BLS Web site on Friday, August 14. For further information, please see http://www.bls.gov/bls/changes_to_text_sections_of_nrs.htm. __________________________________________________________________________________ Facilities for Sensory Impaired Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200, Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339. Brief Explanation of the CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups: (1) the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which covers households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise approximately 32 percent of the total population and (2) the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI- U), which cover approximately 87 percent of the total population and include in addition to wage earners and clerical worker households, groups such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self- employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not in the labor force. The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels, transportation fares, charges for doctors' and dentists' services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Prices are collected in 87 urban areas across the country from about 50,000 housing units and approximately 23,000 retail establishments- department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other types of stores and service establishments. All taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 87 locations. Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month in the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas. Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal visits or telephone calls of the Bureau's trained representatives. In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are averaged together with weights, which represent their importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and CPI-W separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region of the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size classes, and for 27 local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences in the level of prices among cities; they only measure the average change in prices for each area since the base period. For the C-CPI-U data are issued only at the national level. It is important to note that the CPI-U and CPI-W are considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and subject to two annual revisions. The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For the CPI-U and the CPI-W the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100.0. The reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100. An increase of 16.5 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown as 116.5. This change can also be expressed in dollars as follows: the price of a base period market basket of goods and services in the CPI has risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65. For further details visit the CPI home page on the Internet at http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ or contact our CPI Information and Analysis Section on (202) 691-7000. Note on Sampling Error in the Consumer Price Index The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it is based upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete universe of all prices. BLS calculates and publishes estimates of the 1- month, 2-month, 6-month and 12-month percent change standard errors annually, for the CPI-U. These standard error estimates can be used to construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing. For example, the estimated standard error of the 1 month percent change is 0.04 percent for the U.S. All Items Consumer Price Index. This means that if we repeatedly sample from the universe of all retail prices using the same methodology, and estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95% of these estimates would be within 0.08 percent of the 1 month percentage change based on all retail prices. For example, for a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the All Items CPI for All Urban Consumers, we are 95 percent confident that the actual percent change based on all retail prices would fall between 0.12 and 0.28 percent. For the latest data, including information on how to use the estimates of standard error, see "Variance Estimates for Price Changes in the Consumer Price Index, January-December 2008". These data are available on the CPI home page (http://www.bls.gov/cpi), or by using the following link http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpivar2008.pdf Calculating Index Changes Movements of the indexes from one month to another are usually expressed as percent changes rather than changes in index points, because index point changes are affected by the level of the index in relation to its base period while percent changes are not. The example below illustrates the computation of index point and percent changes. Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are expressed as annual rates and are computed according to the standard formula for compound growth rates. These data indicate what the percent change would be if the current rate were maintained for a 12-month period. Index Point Change CPI 202.416 Less previous index 201.800 Equals index point change .616 Percent Change Index point difference .616 Divided by the previous index 201.800 Equals 0.003 Results multiplied by one hundred 0.003x100 Equals percent change 0.3 Regions Defined The states in the four regions shown in Tables 3 and 6 are listed below. The Northeast--Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The Midwest--Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. The South--Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia. The West--Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. A Note on Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data Because price data are used for different purposes by different groups, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes seasonally adjusted as well as unadjusted changes each month. For analyzing general price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every year--such as price movements resulting from changing climatic conditions, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales. The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data also are used extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract agreements and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the Consumer Price Index before adjustment for seasonal variation. Seasonal factors used in computing the seasonally adjusted indexes are derived by the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method. Seasonally adjusted indexes and seasonal factors are computed annually. Each year, the last 5 years of seasonally adjusted data are revised. Data from January 2004 through December 2008 were replaced in January 2009. Exceptions to the usual revision schedule were: the updated seasonal data at the end of 1977 replaced data from 1967 through 1977; and, in January 2002, dependently seasonally adjusted series were revised for January 1987- December 2001 as a result of a change in the aggregation weights for dependently adjusted series. For further information, please see "Aggregation of Dependently Adjusted Seasonally Adjusted Series," in the October 2001 issue of the CPI Detailed Report. The seasonal movement of all items and 54 other aggregations is derived by combining the seasonal movement of 73 selected components. Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical criteria. If any of the 73 components change their seasonal adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the aggregation of the dependent series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted indexes will be used before that period. Note: 47 of the 73 components are seasonally adjusted for 2009. Seasonally adjusted data, including the all items index levels, are subject to revision for up to five years after their original release. For this reason, BLS advises against the use of these data in escalation agreements. Effective with the calculation of the seasonal factors for 1990, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has used an enhanced seasonal adjustment procedure called Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment for some CPI series. Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment allows for better estimates of seasonally adjusted data. Extreme values and/or sharp movements which might distort the seasonal pattern are estimated and removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors. Beginning with the calculation of seasonal factors for 1996, X-12-ARIMA software was used for Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment. For the seasonal factors introduced in January 2009, BLS adjusted 29 series using Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels, electricity and vehicles. For example, this procedure was used for the Motor fuel series to offset the effects of events such as damage to oil refineries from Hurricane Katrina. For a complete list of Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment series and explanations, please refer to the article "Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment", located on our website at http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpisapage.htm. For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI, please write to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of Consumer Prices and Price Indexes, Washington, DC 20212 or contact Jeff Wilson at (202) 691- 6968, or by e-mail at Wilson.Jeff@bls.gov. If you have general questions about the CPI, please call our information staff at (202) 691-7000.
- Table 1. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. City Average, by expenditure category and commodity and service group
- Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): Seasonally adjusted U. S. City Average, by expenditure category and commodity and service group
- Table 3. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): Selected areas, all items index
- Table 4. Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W): U. S. City Average, by expenditure category and commodity and service group
- Table 5. Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W): Seasonally adjusted U. S. City Average, by expenditure category and commodity and service group
- Table 6. Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W): Selected areas, all items index
- Table 7. Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U): U.S. city average, by expenditure category and commodity and service group
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Last Modified Date: August 14, 2009