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NIST GCR 04-863
Composites Manufacturing Technologies: Applications in Automotive,
Petroleum, and Civil Infrastructure Industries
Economic Study of a Cluster of ATP-Funded
Projects
Thomas
M. Pelsoci, Ph.D.
Delta Research Co., Chicago, IL
tpelsoci@deltaresearchco.com
Grant SB1341-02-W-1015
June 2004
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Contents
Abstract
Acknowledgements
Executive
Summary
Abbreviations and Acronyms
1. Introduction
- Cluster Study Objectives
and Scope
- Five Projects in
the Cluster Study
2. Analytical
Framework and Methodology
- Analytical Framework
- General Approach
- Methodology
3. Vapor-Grown
Carbon Fiber Case Study
- Project History
- How Does It Work?
- Technical Accomplishments
- Production Capacity
and Cost
- Automotive Markets
for VGCF-Reinforced Composites
- VGCF Competitive
Position
- Automotive Industry
Initiatives
- Benefit-to-Cost Analysis
- Qualitative Benefits
4. Composite
Production Riser Case Study
- Project History
- How Does It Work?
- Technical Accomplishments
- Offshore Oil Production
Trends
- Pathways for CPR
Deployment
- Offshore Industry
Initiatives
- Platforms Projections
with Composite Risers
- Benefit-to-Cost Analysis
- Qualitative Benefits
5. Additional
Projects in the Cluster Study
- Innovative Manufacturing
Techniques for Large Composite Shapes
- Synchronous CNC Machining
of Pultruded Lineals
- Innovative Joining
and Fitting Technology for Composite Piping Systems
6. Benefit-to-Cost
Analysis for Cluster of Projects
- Project Cluster and
Focused Program
- Public Benefits,
Public Investments, and Performance Metrics
- Economic Analysis
- Future Extension
of Cash Flow Benefits
7. Conclusions
References
Appendices
- Appendix
1. ATP-Funded Projects for Composites Manufacturing Technologies
- Appendix
2. Actual ATP and Industry Investments in Composites Manufacturing
Technologies ($ Millions)
- Appendix
3. Composite Materials for Engineered Products
About
the Advanced Technology Program
About the Author
TABLES
Table
ES-1: Summary of Benefits from ATP’s Investment in a Cluster
of Five Composites Manufacturing Projects
Table 1: Market Projections for VGCF Utilization
in North American Automotive Production (Numbers of Vehicles in Thousands)
Table 2: Cash Flows and Performance Metrics
from VGCF Use in the Automotive Industry ($ Millions, in 2003 Dollars):
Base Case
Table 3: Performance Metrics from VGCF
Use in the Automotive Industry ($ Millions, in 2003 Dollars): Step-Out
Scenario
Table 4: Projected Gulf of Mexico Tension
Leg and SPAR Platforms with Composite Production Risers
Table 5: Expected Number of Production
Wells Completed with CPR on Existing Tension Leg Platforms
Table 6: Expected Number of Wells Completed
with Composite Production Risers on New TLP and SPAR Platforms
Table 7: Cash Flows and Performance Metrics
from CPR Deployment in Gulf of Mexico ($ Millions, in 2003 Dollars): Base
Case
Table 8: Performance Metrics from CPR Deployment
in Gulf of Mexico: Step-Out Scenario
Table 9: Combined Cash Flows of ATP Investments
and Expected Benefits from VGCF and CPR Deployment ($ Millions, in 2003
Dollars): Base Cas
Table 10: Base Case Performance Metrics
from Combined VGCF and CPR Cash Flows against ATP Cluster and ATP Program
Investments (in 2003 Dollars)
Table 11: Step-Out Scenario Performance
Metrics from Combined VGCF and CPR Cash Flows against ATP Cluster and ATP
Program Investments (in 2003 Dollars)
APPENDICES TABLES
Table
A3-1: Typical Properties of Some Engineering Materials
FIGURES
Figure
1: Flow of Benefits from ATP-Funded Composites Manufacturing
Projects
Figure 2: Benefit Allocation from ATP-Funded
Composites Manufacturing Projects
Figure 3: Vapor-Grown Carbon Fiber Manufacturing
Process
Figure 4: Flow of Benefits from the ATP-Funded
VGCF Project
Figure 5: Wound-in Metallic End Fittings with
Traplock Composite-to-Metal Interface
Figure 6: Recent History of Deepwater Developments
Figure 7: Deepwater Production Rates and Compound
Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of Deepwater Production in the Gulf of Mexico
Figure 8: Seven Types of Offshore Oil Production
Platforms
Figure 9: Market Share of Tension Leg or SPAR
Platforms in the Gulf of Mexico
Figure 10: Flow of Benefits from the ATP-Funded
Composite Production Riser Technology
Figure 11: Public Benefits, Investments, and
Performance Metrics for Cluster of Related ATP Projects and, by Extension,
Program of ATP Projects
Figure 12: Net Present Value Component Analysis:
Base Case
APPENDICES FIGURES
Figure
A3-1: Continuous-Fiber versus Short-Fiber Composites
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of Contents or go to next section.
Date created: July 14,
2004
Last updated:
August 3, 2005
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