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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: Oct 28 - Nov 01, 2009 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Oct 30 - Nov 05, 2009 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Oct 22, 2009 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EDT THU OCTOBER 22 2009
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 28 - NOV 01, 2009
TODAY'S MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN THROUGH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS PATTERN FEATURES A
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL OR EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, A RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
THE U.S., AND A TROUGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ALASKA. FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, THE
MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HINTED AT RETROGRESSION OF THE MEAN FLOW
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND THIS CONTINUES TODAY. AS HAS ALSO BEEN THE CASE
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER AGAIN TODAY WITH REGARD TO THE
POSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGH.
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK'S MODEL RUNS AND CONTINUING TODAY, THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW ITS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGH AXIS THE FURTHEST TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER, TODAY'S 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOW THE FURTHEST WEST
OF THE MODEL ENSEMBLES, PLACING ITS TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES,
LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. YESTERDAY'S 12Z AND
TODAY'S 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS,
PLACING ITS TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW VASTLY DIFFERENT
TROUGH AXIS LOCATIONS THE PAST TWO DAYS, TODAY'S MODEL BLEND CHART FOLLOWING
THE STRONGER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE. MORE WEIGHT
WAS PLACED INTO THE GFS SOLUTIONS, WHILE ALSO GIVING SOME WEIGHT TO YESTERDAY'S
12Z AND TODAY'S 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES. TODAY'S MANUAL BLEND SHIFTS MAJOR FEATURES
ACROSS THE CONUS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND RIDGING LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.
A TROUGH LOCATED YESTERDAY OVER WEST-CENTRAL ALASKA SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL ALASKA.
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS TROUGH AXIS COMBINED WITH GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE TOOLS LEADS TO ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST. GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE FAR NORTHERN PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WITH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST COAST FAVORING GREATER
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY UNDER THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH, COVERING AN AREA
FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL ROCKIES EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE WEST COAST,
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA.
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND
10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO LOCATION AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH REGARD
TO TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE NAEFS AS WELL AS KLEIN AND ANALOG
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NAEFS, AS WELL AS ANALOG AND
NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 30 - NOV 05, 2009
THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT FROM MOST OF THE GFS-BASED AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. THE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK HAS
FEATURED TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS, AND A TROUGH OVER ALASKA. THIS SOLUTION IS STILL FORECAST BY THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AND THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS. YESTERDAY'S 12Z AND TODAY'S 00Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE, HOWEVER, AS WELL AS THE 06Z OPERATIONAL GFS POSE A DIFFERENT
SOLUTION, WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO, AND SHIFTING THE TROUGH BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ROCKIES.
ALTHOUGH THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN THE FURTHEST WEST OF THE GUIDANCE IN
THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH, THIS IS QUITE A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES COMPARED TO FORECASTS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. CONSIDERING THAT
IT HAS SUPPORT FROM ONE OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS, IT IS A SOLUTION THAT CAN
NOT BE DISCOUNTED. HOWEVER, WITH THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLES EXHIBITING BETTER
CONTINUITY FROM SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS, TODAY'S MANUAL BLEND CHART CONSISTS
LARGELY OF THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLES. THE MANUAL BLEND FEATURES TROUGHING OVER
THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, WITH GENERALLY FLAT, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES, AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA. THE MANUAL BLEND ALSO DEPICTS
AN EXTENSION OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERING 500-HPA HEIGHT SOLUTIONS BETWEEN THE CANADIAN
AND THE GFS GUIDANCE.
ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE
FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST, WITH GREATER ODDS FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FAVORED ACROSS THE WEST COAST. NEAR MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHERE GREATER ODDS FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED. GREATER ODDS FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS
MUCH OF ALASKA UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FORECAST
TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...AND 35 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5, DUE TO GREATER DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE CANADIAN AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON NAEFS, ANALOG AND NEURAL NET
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND, THE AUTOBLEND, AND THE KLEIN TEMPERATURE
TOOLS FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON NAEFS, THE AUTO BLEND, AND THE
ANALOG AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND.
FORECASTER: ANDREW LOCONTO
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 19
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS
PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE
MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19591020 - 19921020 - 19681105 - 20001019 - 19741012
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19591019 - 19681104 - 19921019 - 19531003 - 19951015
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 28 - NOV 01, 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N
UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 30 - NOV 05, 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE N B
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN N B
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
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