Frequently Asked Questions

Does BLS project future labor shortages or surpluses?

No. Attempts by some to ascribe shortages or surpluses to our projections are based on an incorrect comparison of the total employment and total labor force projections, two separate and fundamentally different measures. The total employment projection is a count of jobs and the labor force projection is a count of individuals. Users of these data should not assume that the difference between the projected increase in the labor force and the projected increase in employment implies a labor shortage or surplus. The BLS projections assume a labor market in equilibrium, i.e., one where labor supply meets labor demand except for some degree of frictional unemployment. For a discussion of the basic projection methodology, see "An overview of BLS projections to 2016," James C. Franklin, November 2007 Monthly Labor Review. For a discussion of labor shortages in the context of long-term projection models, see "Employment projections to 2012: concepts and context," Michael W. Horrigan, February 2004 Monthly Labor Review. For a summary of recent trends in employment from the BLS household and employment surveys, see http://www.bls.gov/web/ces_cps_trends.pdf.

How often are the projections updated and where are they published?

The economic, employment, and labor force projections are usually updated every other year; the most recent update took place in December 2007. The projections are usually released first in the November issue of the Monthly Labor Review in odd-numbered years. They are also published in the Occupational Outlook Handbook.

What is the time horizon for BLS projections?

The projections have a 10 year span. Currently the projections go to 2016.

What are the fastest growing jobs?

The fastest growing jobs can be found in this table and reflect jobs with the largest rate of change, in terms of percentage.

What are the occupations adding the most jobs?

The occupations adding the largest number of positions can be found in this table.

What are the fastest growing industries?

The industries with the fastest growing jobs can be found in this table and rank the industries with jobs experiencing the largest rate of change, in terms of percentage.

Are there annual projections or just data for the terminal year?

The projections are available only for 2016.

Do you have projections for states or local areas?

BLS prepares projections only for the Nation as a whole. Projections of industry and occupational employment are prepared by each State, using input from the BLS National projections.

How accurate are BLS projections?

BLS evaluates its projections regularly and publishes these evaluations in the Monthly Labor Review.

How do the BLS employment projections account for recessions?

The analysis underlying the BLS employment projections focuses on long-term structural change and growth and assumes a full employment economy in the target year. To the extent that recessions can cause long-term structural change, they may impact the projections. However, BLS does not project recessions.

How should the BLS 2006-16 employment projections be viewed in light of the current recession?

The BLS employment projections are based on analysis of long-term structural changes to the economy, not short-term business cycle fluctuations. The 2006-16 employment projections incorporate information available up through their development in 2007. New projections are prepared every two years to incorporate new information; the next set of projections, covering the years 2008-18, will be released in December 2009.

BLS does not attempt to project the peaks and troughs of business cycles, and our projections model assumes a full employment economy in the target year. Thus, the 2006-16 projections, which were developed before the current recession began in 2007, do not reflect recent economic fluctuations. However, to the extent that the current recession has a long-term impact on the fundamental structure of the economy, the 2006-16 data may over- or under-project long-term employment change for some industries and occupations. Projections users may wish to evaluate the BLS assumptions that describe a full employment economy for 2016 and interpret the projections in light of their evaluation. These assumptions are described in the November 2007 Monthly Labor Review article available at http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2007/11/art2full.pdf.

How will the recession impact the 2008-18 projections?

The analysis underlying the BLS employment projections uses currently available information to focus on long-term structural change and growth. The 2008-18 projections will follow our usual practice and assume a full employment economy in 2018. The impact on long-term structural change and growth from the current recession, which began in December of 2007, will not be fully known until some point during or after the recovery. Because the 2008 starting point is a recession year, the projected growth to an assumed full employment economy in 2018 will generally be stronger than if the starting point were not a recession year.

 

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Last Modified Date: April 13, 2009