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ETHIOPIA: Below-normal kiremt rains could further exacerbate food insecurity

Estimated food security conditions, 3rd Quarter 2009 (July-September)

Generally Food Secure
Moderately Food Insecure
Highly Food Insecure
Extremely Food Insecure
Famine
No Data

Favorable Conditions
Somewhat Favorable Conditions
Short Term Dryness
Drought
Severe Drought
Humanitarian Concern

Extreme Event
Heavy Snow
Heavy Rain
Flooding
Blowing Dust
Extreme Cold
Extreme Heat

The FEWS NET Food Insecurity Severity Scale Read Descriptions
Geographic data are partly derived from the UN/FAO GAUL system. Read Disclaimer

West Africa

Nigeria

08/21/2009

Food security conditions are stable in most areas of the country. However, significant pockets of food insecurity have emerged in the coastal areas of the So ... more
- Food security conditions are stable in most areas of the country. However, significant pockets of food insecurity have emerged in the coastal areas of the South due to excessive flooding and in the North due to dryness that led to a decline in food availability and unseasonably high food prices. The problem is compounded by recent erosion of purchasing power as most households in the North lost their crops to early short-term dryness and had to purchase seeds a second time after already having heavily invested in agricultural activities earlier. Ongoing harvest of early-maturing tubers and cereal crops will ease current food insecurity. However, poor households could face production shortages and poor stock replenishment, making them vulnerable to food insecurity as of the first quarter of 2010.
- Most of the country received significant rains in August. Meteorological conditions were marked, however, by wide variations in rainfall distribution leading to average to below-average rainfall in the North center and the South, heavy rains in the South and dryness in the North. Rains were more abundant and well distributed in August. Good rainfall conditions that extend to at least mid-October are needed to mitigate the impact of the early dryness and to give the crops time to reach maturity. A cessation of rainfall before the normal end of the season in mid-October could result in significant cereal production shortages and poor household stock replenishment.
- Most urban and local markets have registered unseasonably high food prices and tight market supplies as the hunger season progresses across the country. The upward trend in prices of major staple food and their substitute is compounded by traders’ speculative behaviors associated with the poor crop development in localized areas of the South and the North.
Nigeria Country Center
Burkina Faso | Chad | Mali | Mauritania | Niger | Regional Center

Southern Africa

Malawi

07/30/2009

Food security across the country has greatly improved with the arrival of the new harvest. Most households now have access to their own produced food. Howeve ... more
- Food security across the country has greatly improved with the arrival of the new harvest. Most households now have access to their own produced food. However, for parts of Chikwawa, Nsanje, and Balaka districts, some households continue to experience food insecurity due to poor harvests in these areas during the 2008/09 agricultural season. Local market maize prices are generally affordable for the majority of households, though prices are beginning to rise in some of the markets.
- The number of households that have depleted their own-produced food will increase in the next six months. Most affected households will turn to the market for food, thereby increasing market demand for maize and exerting upward pressure on local market maize prices.
- The number of households seeking ganyu (casual labor) to obtain cash to buy food will rise in the next six months. However, excess supply of labor in the affected areas could result in a reduction in wages and consequently household incomes.
- The government has announced a producer price for maize of MK40.00/kg, compared to MK50.00/kg last season. However many farmers have already sold their maize to traders at prices lower than the recommended price and may not benefit from the announcement. Most poor households sell their maize during or soon after the harvest. The Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation (ADMARC) and National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) have not yet begun to buy maize.
Malawi Country Center
Mozambique | Zambia | Zimbabwe | Regional Center

Caribbean

Haiti

08/18/2009

The spring harvest, which peaked in mid-July, is expected to be approximately 25 percent greater than last year’s harvest for the same growing season. This h ... more
- The spring harvest, which peaked in mid-July, is expected to be approximately 25 percent greater than last year’s harvest for the same growing season. This harvest accounts for nearly 60 percent of annual crop production. The inflation rate has been close to zero for the past three months, the lowest level in a year, compared to nearly 20 percent inflation one year ago. In addition, infrastructure and disaster mitigation programs are helping poor households to earn extra income. Due to these factors, CNSA and FEWS NET estimate the size of the country’s food insecure population at approximately 1.9 million, adjusting last quarter’s figure downward by 25 percent.
- Food security levels should remain more or less unchanged for the three-month period from July through September. There is a developing El Niño phenomenon, but experts are still uncertain as to the extent of its severity, and its effects are not expected to be significant over the following three months. An El Niño event is likely to reduce the number of hurricanes affecting Haiti, but aggravate drought conditions in semi-arid areas. It could also disrupt world-wide crop production and trigger a jump in world market prices for grain next quarter and next year, which would negatively affect food availability in Haiti. Towards the end of 2009, the food insecure population is likely to increase to approximately 2.2 million people.
- The following suggestions are made for the government and its partners to improve food security conditions: (1) support the implementation of environmental protection projects to reduce the country’s vulnerability to natural disasters and sustain or restore its agricultural potential; (2) intensify drain-clearing works in high-risk cities and rehabilitate water supply systems; (3) ensure the continuation of school meal programs in impoverished areas; and (4) help poor parents purchase school supplies for the new school year.
Haiti Country Center

East Africa

Djibouti

08/24/2009

The delay in the establishment of the Karan/Karma season is disrupting livestock migration patterns, and heightening the risk of highly food insecure pockets ... more
- The delay in the establishment of the Karan/Karma season is disrupting livestock migration patterns, and heightening the risk of highly food insecure pockets emerging, particularly in the Northwest Pastoral Zone, over the coming months. The overall food security situation in pastoral areas will depend on the performance of the current season, as this season is the main rainy season in the grazing areas of the western half of the country.
- Cereal prices are stable in the Djibouti City reference market, but an increase in the price of sorghum has been observed in Borama market (in Somaliland) which supplies Djibouti. This has increased the price of sorghum in Djibouti City and is likely to further affect prices in Djibouti markets.
- Poor households in both rural and urban areas cannot afford their minimum food requirements at the current monitored food and essential non-food commodity prices.
Djibouti Country Center
Ethiopia | Kenya | Somalia | Sudan | Tanzania | Uganda | Regional Center

Central America

Guatemala

08/24/2009

The food security situation will improve throughout the country with the primera harvest, except for some municipalities in the east and the Pacific coast, w ... more
- The food security situation will improve throughout the country with the primera harvest, except for some municipalities in the east and the Pacific coast, where low yields and recent cases of malnutrition have been reported.
- The meteorological service (INSIVUMEH) has forecast lower-than-normal rainfall for August. This could affect crops that are currently flowering as well as the postrera crops on the Pacific coast and parts of the dry corridor, mainly.
- The Ministry of Agriculture has ordered the reactivation of the crop monitoring system to provide information to the Secretary of Food Security. This will help determine the affected areas and the extent to which they are affected, and it will help in the development of concrete actions.
Guatemala Country Center

Central Asia

Afghanistan

08/03/2009

Although eight million people suffered from varying levels of food insecurity in 2008, currently, households throughout the country are generally food secure ... more
- Although eight million people suffered from varying levels of food insecurity in 2008, currently, households throughout the country are generally food secure, and will be so until October, at least.
- In the most likely scenario for July to September, food prices will increase slightly due to the election in August and the month-long celebration of Ramadan, during which people typically spend more money on food.
- In the most likely scenario through December, generally food secure conditions will deteriorate to moderately food insecure levels in chronically food-insecure zones and provinces where accessibility is an issue due to harsh winter conditions.
Afghanistan Country Center