New Short-Term CO₂ Emissions Forecasts

Energy-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions account for about 98 percent of U.S. CO₂ emissions (EIA, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases Report). The vast majority of CO₂ emissions come from fossil fuel combustion (coal, natural gas, and petroleum), with small amounts from the nonfuel use of energy inputs, and emissions from electricity generation using nonbiogenic municipal solid waste and geothermal energy. Other sources include emissions from industrial processes, such as cement and limestone production.

The Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) now provides a history and forecast of CO₂ emissions from the consumption of the three fossil fuels: coal, natural gas, and petroleum. The historical monthly CO₂ emissions in the STEO database are from the EIA Monthly Energy Review, which will begin publishing monthly emissions in August 2009 edition, and the Emissions of Greenhouse Gases Report. The history and forecasts of CO₂ emissions are available in the STEO as monthly, quarterly, and annual data series from Table 9a. U.S. Energy Indicators. Long-term forecasts of CO₂ emissions are available in the EIA Annual Energy Outlook.

The Current Outlook

The economic downturn, combined with a significant switch from coal to natural gas as a source of electricity generation, is projected to lead to a 5-percent decline in fossil-fuel-based CO₂ emissions in 2009 (STEO Figure 23). An improving economy is expected to increase CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels by 0.7 percent in 2010.

Petroleum and Liquid Fuels. Petroleum CO₂ emissions are expected to decline by 4 percent in 2009, primarily due to declines in transportation sector consumption. Although little change in CO₂ emissions from motor gasoline are is expected in 2009, CO₂ emissions from other transportation petroleum fuels, particularly jet fuel (a 9.8 percent decline in consumption), distillate fuel oil (an 8.2 percent decline) and residual fuel oil (a 6.3 percent decline), are expected to fall significantly. CO₂ emissions from petroleum in 2010 are projected to increase by 0.6 percent, which is lower than the 1.5-percent increase in total petroleum consumption primarily because of the continued growth in the biofuel share of the transportation fuel markets.

Coal. Fuel switching in the electric power sector and declines in industrial use are projected to lead to a 7.9-percent decline in coal-based CO₂ emissions for 2009. Increases in coal consumption, primarily in the electric power sector, is expected to lead to a 1.1-percent increase in coal CO₂ emissions in 2010.

Natural Gas. Natural gas-based CO₂ emissions are projected to decline by 2.3 percent in 2009 despite significant consumption increases in the electric power sector. Natural gas consumption declines in 2009 for all other major sectors. CO₂ emissions from natural gas are expected to grow slightly in 2010 as natural gas consumption increases by 0.7 percent.