“In congressional testimony Monday, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, is expected to cite a 75 percent decrease in sectarian attacks.” [Washington Post, 9/6/07]
According to a report in today’s Washington Post, U.S. military leaders and the White House are “cherry-picking” data on violence in Iraq to bolster their claims that the President’s failed war strategy is working. In order to support this claim, military and Administration calculations are based on a system of categorizing and excluding statistics that “selectively ignored negative trends” and “puzzled” senior intelligence officials and the nation’s chief auditor and head of the Government Accountability Office.
The White House is entitled to their opinion, but they are not entitled to their own facts.
WHITE HOUSE STATISTICS CONFUSE AND DISTORT
Despite Republican claims that casualties and sectarian violence in Iraq are down, the numbers tell a different story:
Washington Post — “Recent estimates by the media, outside groups and some government agencies have called the military’s findings into question. The Associated Press last week counted 1,809 civilian deaths in August, making it the highest monthly total this year…” [Washington Post, 9/6/07]
Associated Press - “This year’s U.S. troop buildup has succeeded in bringing violence in Baghdad down from peak levels, but the death toll from sectarian attacks around the country is running nearly double the pace from a year ago.” [AP, 8/25/07]
Los Angeles Times - “Bombings, sectarian slayings and other violence related to the war killed at least 1,773 Iraqi civilians in August, the second month in a row that civilian deaths have risen, according to government figures obtained Friday.” [LA Times, 9/1/07]
Icasualties.org - June, July and August 2007 marked the bloodiest summer so far for U.S. troops in Iraq with 264 soldiers killed. [icasualties.org]
REPORTS ASSESSING BUSH WAR STRATEGY TELL DIFFERENT STORY
The three major assessments of the war in Iraq released in the past two weeks all agree violence remains staggeringly high across the country amid no signs of political reconciliation.
Independent Commission on the Security Forces of Iraq (Jones Commission Report released today):
“Violence remains a fact of life in Iraq…While violence has recently declined sharply in the Sunni-dominated Anbar province… attacks have risen in Diyala, Balad, Basra, and Amarah. Violence remains endemic in Baghdad…”(pg. 33)
“Iraqi society is being convulsed by sectarianism that if not swiftly and significantly curtailed could contribute to a rapid deterioration of Iraq…” (pg. 34)
Government Accountability Office (GAO) Report:
“The violence in Iraq has resulted in a large number of Iraqis displaced from their homes.” (pg. 51)
“[W]idespread violence across Iraq has seriously compromised the government’s ability to protect human rights. According to the United Nations, attacks against religious and ethnic minorities continued unabated in most areas of Iraq, prompting these communities to seek ways to leave the country. The conflicts reportedly bear the mark of sectarian polarization and “cleansing” in neighborhoods formerly comprised of different religions. According to a non-governmental organization, all of Iraq’s minority communities have suffered violations that include destruction and defacement of religious buildings; mass murder of congregations gathered in and around them; abduction, randsoming, and murder of religious and civic leaders and individuals including children…” (pg. 62)
National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) Report:
The “level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among civilians remains high” and “Iraq’s sectarian groups remain unreconciled.” (pg. 1)
“Intra-Shia conflict involving factions competing for power and resources probably will intensify as Iraqis assume control of provincial security.” (pg. 2)
“Population displacement resulting from sectarian violence continues, imposing burdens on provincial governments and some neighboring states and increasing the danger of destabilizing influences across Iraq’s borders over the next six to 12 months.” (pg. 3)
WE’VE HEARD THIS BEFORE FROM PRESIDENT BUSH
“The terrorists and the Baathists loyal to the old regime will fail because America and our allies have a strategy, and our strategy is working.“[Radio Address, 11/1/03]
“That’s our strategy. And it is working and it is going to work, for the good of the country.” [White House, 6/24/05]
“This approach is working.” [White House, 12/7/05]
“It took time to understand and adjust to the brutality of the enemy in Iraq. Yet the strategy is working.” [White House, 3/20/06]
“The surge is seizing the initiative from the enemy - and handing it to the Iraqi people.” [McClatchy News, 8/28/07]
THE PETRAEUS WHITE HOUSE REPORT
Even though the White House negotiated to provide its own report on progress in Iraq as part of the May Iraq Supplemental, the Bush Administration has misled the public for months calling their report “the Petraeus Report.” This misnomer reflects a long-running resistance by the White House to taking responsibility for its own actions, having consistently referred to the escalation as “General Petraeus’ plan” even though he was nominated nine days after President Bush announced the escalation.
[LA Times, 8/15/07; Talking Points Memo, 8/15/07]