Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1240 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SHAWNEE TO LAWTON
OKLAHOMA TO SEYMOUR TEXAS.

TIMING...
SEVERE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS CAUSING DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES...
VEGETATION AND ROOFS...WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE A SECONDARY
POSSIBILITY.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE OPERATIONS OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. INSTABILITY IN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM... PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO
AROUND GOLF BALL SIZE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY MAY 9.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS LEFT THE GROUND SATURATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
SATURDAY.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
800 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-100100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
800 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF...AS THE COLD FRONT
FLUCTUATES AROUND NORTH TEXAS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR.

$$

Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 AM MDT SAT MAY 9 2009

NMZ005-007-091100-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...LAS VEGAS/RATON
313 AM MDT SAT MAY 9 2009

.NOW...

ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT. IN COLFAX
COUNTY...SHOWERS CROSSING INTERSTATE 25 BETWEEN RATON PASS AND
SPRINGER WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE UNION COUNTY LINE...AND MOVE
TOWARD CAPULIN...FOLSOM...DES MOINES...AND ACROSS HIGHWAYS 64 AND
87. EXPECT RAINFALL OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AS THESE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

$$

SHY

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
310 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-091030-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
310 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009

.NOW...
DISSIPATING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST TEXAS HAVE RESULTED IN
DAMAGING WINDS FAR FROM THE ORIGINAL STORMS. TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN
IN PARIS BY WINDS MEASURED AT 65 MPH.

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED SINCE THE EVENING HOURS
HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

OTHERWISE...MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT USHERS
NOTICEABLY MORE PLEASANT AIR OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY.

$$

25

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
255 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091000-
ALFALFA-ARCHER-ATOKA-BAYLOR-BECKHAM-BLAINE-BRYAN-CADDO-CANADIAN-
CARTER-CLAY-CLEVELAND-COAL-COMANCHE-COTTON-CUSTER-DEWEY-ELLIS-FOARD-
GARFIELD-GARVIN-GRADY-GRANT-GREER-HARDEMAN-HARMON-HARPER-HUGHES-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSTON-KAY-KINGFISHER-KIOWA-KNOX-LINCOLN-SLOGAN-
LOVE-MAJOR-MARSHALL-MCCLAIN-MURRAY-NOBLE-OKLAHOMA-PAYNE-PONTOTOC-
POTTAWATOMIE-ROGER MILLS-SEMINOLE-STEPHENS-TILLMAN-WASHITA-WICHITA-
WILBARGER-
257 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2009

.NOW...
...REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR HOLDENVILLE... TO PAULS VALLEY... TO NEAR
WICHITA FALLS TEXAS... WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SOUTH OF THE FRONT... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE... WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.  TO THE NORTH...
TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE 60S... AND HUMIDITIES ARE GENERALLY
MUCH LOWER.

$$

CMS