000
WTPQ31 PGUM 052138
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON KUJIRA (01W) ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
800 AM CHST WED MAY 6 2009
...TYPHOON KUJIRA MOVING NORTHEAST AND STARTING TO WEAKEN...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 7 AM...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KUJIRA (01W) WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.9 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 650 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
740 MILES NORTH OF YAP.
TYPHOON KUJIRA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 18 MPH. IT IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE AND CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 MPH. KUJIRA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES.
REPEATING THE 7 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 20.2 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 137.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 18 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM CHST.
$$
BAQUI
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052121
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 05 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...07N77W TO
07N105W TO 06N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS WEST OF 125W.
...DISCUSSION...
MODERATE DEEP LAYER WESTERLIES ARE NORTH OF 30N AND WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD TO NORTH OF 35N BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
A BROAD MOSTLY MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF THE
WESTERLIES TO ABOUT 20N. SOUTH OF 20N A FLAT PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS WITH A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF 20N ALONG 120W AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
20N135W. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
EXTENDS WITHIN 500 NM IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND ONLY THE
MOISTURE WITHOUT THE CLOUDS WITHIN 200 NM OVER THE SW
SEMICIRCLE. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PULL NORTH AND MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST REACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THE END
OF THE WEEK.
ANTHER UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 105W NORTH OF THE ITCZ.
EAST OF THE TROUGH MOIST SOUTHER FLOW IS ADVECTING MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PART OF CENTRAL
AMERICA.
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ
WEST OF 103W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. REMAINDER OF THE LOWER LEVEL IS ANALYZED AS A
WEAK TROUGH.
$$
LL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 051705
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N8W 4N12W 2N19W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 30W AND CONTINUING JUST S OF THE EQUATOR TO 1S50W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING W FROM THE FAR W
COAST OF AFRICA ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 3W ENCOMPASSING THE
SW COAST OF AFRICA TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR. A SMALLER AREA OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM
7N14W TO 4N21W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-24W AND S
OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 41W-49W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E U.S. DIPPING S OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INLAND ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO TEXAS. VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS FOUND S OF THE FRONT AS LIGHT SE
SURFACE FLOW IS EVIDENT FROM SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE LOCATED ON THE W PERIPHERY OF A
SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO OVER THE E GULF. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF TODAY WITH ONLY DEBRIS
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
COSTA RICA WHICH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE YUCATAN
AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO 75W. THIS MOISTURE IS RESULTANT
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 20N66W ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO NEAR
13N65W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES E OF THE AXIS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN PRIMARILY DUE TO A RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD IN CONVERGENT
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN S OF 16N.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ATLANTIC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ANCHORED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS
SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE W ATLC AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 25N69W IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS TO JUST N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 23N72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 23N66W TO 28N69W.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED UNDER A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ZONE ACROSS THE W ATLC DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN N INTO THE UPPER LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FARTHER TO THE SE ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND TROPICAL ATLC FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 53W-66W.
THE SECOND WEAKNESS IN THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC AS A SECOND LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS NEAR
29N42W PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N36W ALONG 28N40W TO 23N43W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N TO BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 33W-43W.
$$
WALLACE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051604
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 05 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDED ALONG 06N77W TO 05N82W TO 07N93W TO 05N115W
TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N W OF 112W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS E OF 98W.
...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE HAS CUT OFF NEAR 18N135W AND WAS
MOVING SLOWLY W WITH TIME. TO IMMEDIATELY TO THE SE...A QUASI
STATIONARY UPPER ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED AT 09N126W WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING N TO NEAR 20N122W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL CENTRAL PACIFIC IN RESPONSE TO THE PATTERN
WAS PRODUCING AN ELONGATED ZONE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND WAS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 150W AND 110W...WITH
MUCH OF THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING N OVER THE RIDGE
AND WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CUTOFF
CYCLONE. A SECOND MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WAS NOTED NEAR
19N118W...AND WAS BEING FORCED GRADUALLY WSW BY ELONGATED
RIDGING TO THE NW. DRAPED N OF THESE TWO CYCLONES IS A FLAT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITH A CENTER ESTIMATED NEAR 28N123W...WITH THE
RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO CENTRAL ARIZONA AND OFFSHORE OF NRN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SOME DENSE UPPER MOISTURE WAS OBSERVED.
OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 20N...AND OVER THE SW
SEMICIRCLE OF THE WESTERNMOST CYCLONE.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE E CENTRAL CONUS AND EXTENDS
SW ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND THEN S OVER THE E PACIFIC ALONG 109W
AND THEN S TO NEAR THE EQUATOR. DRY SINKING AIR WAS NOTED FROM
07N TO 20N BETWEEN 106W AND 115W AND WAS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
A STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW OFF COLOMBIA ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO A CREST NEAR 18N100W.
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG
THE PACIFIC ITCZ TO THE E OF 100W...AND MAY ALSO ENHANCED QUITE
OF BIT OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 85W AND 93W
TODAY DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH WAS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
27N134W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 25N140W...AND SECOND
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 14N112W. THE RIDGE IS BLOCKING THE
SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO N OF 30N.
HOWEVER NW LARGE NW SWELLS GENERATED BY THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO
THE NW WILL PROPAGATE SE INTO THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND RAISE SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FT AND GREATER ACROSS
EXTREME N PORTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH THU. TO THE E OF THIS SURFACE
RIDGE...NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT PERSIST ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE
TODAY...BUT INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13
FT IN NW SWELL NEAR 29N119W WED NIGHT INTO THU. EASTERLY TRADES
S OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ ARE MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE...WITH MODEST ZONES OF 20 KT FLOW...AND NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
VERY LONG PERIOD SSW SRN HEMI SWELL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MIX WITH PREVAILING WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY LARGE
SURF WILL AFFECT THE COASTLINES OF NW S AMERICA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND EVENTUALLY REACH CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
$$
STRIPLING
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 051559
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON KUJIRA (01W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 AM CHST WED MAY 6 2009
...TYPHOON KUJIRA MOVING NORTHEAST AND STARTING TO WEAKEN...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 1 AM...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KUJIRA (01W) WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.3 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 710 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
720 MILES NORTH OF YAP.
TYPHOON KUJIRA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 18 MPH. IT IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE AND CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 MPH. KUJIRA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES.
REPEATING THE 1 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 19.8 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 136.3 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 18 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM CHST.
$$
BAQUI
000
AXNT20 KNHC 051046
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 05 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N9W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W
AND CONTINUING JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR TO 47W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS ALONG 42W S OF 4N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH S OF 2N. ELSEWHERE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 7N BETWEEN 11W-22W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 5N BETWEEN 22W-31W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING COVERS THE ERN U.S. AND NRN FLORIDA
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND ACROSS SRN
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA EXTENDING WWD ACROSS SRN TEXAS. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS FOUND S OF THE FRONT AS
LIGHT SE SURFACE FLOW IS EVIDENT FROM SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE LOCATED ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE WRN GULF WATERS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
DEBRIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE
W/CENTRAL GULF.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
COSTA RICA WHICH IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA W
OF 76W. THIS MOISTURE IS RESULTANT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SRN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM
N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS S ALONG 64W TO NEAR THE NE VENEZUELA
COAST. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER
ANTILLES E OF THE AXIS MAINLY N OF 12N. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN PRIMARILY DUE TO A RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING WWD IN CONVERGENT SURFACE FLOW
ACROSS THE BASIN S OF 16N.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ATLANTIC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ANCHORED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ONE RIDGE
EXTENDS SW FROM 36N53W ACROSS BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ONE WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE W ATLC
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N69W IS PROVIDING SUPPORT
FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N74W IN THE SE BAHAMAS
TO 30N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH
WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM 22N64W NE TO 31N71W. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED UNDER A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ZONE
ACROSS THE W ATLC DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
NWD INTO THE UPPER LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
TSTMS EXTEND FARTHER SE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND TROPICAL
ATLC FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 55W-66W. THE SECOND RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE E ATLC FROM A SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED NE OF THE AZORES.
THE WEAKNESS IN THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC AS A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS NEAR 30N40W PROVIDING
SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N42W TO 32N38W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS FROM 27N TO
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 31W-41W.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050958
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 05 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 08N78W TO 09N91W TO 07N110W TO 04N120W
TO 04N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS FLARING
INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC FROM 03N TO 10N E OF 100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 08.5N109W TO 05N132W TO
04.5N140W. A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR
03N121W.
...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS CUT OFF NEAR 17N135W AND IS MOVING
W WITH TIME. A QUASI STATIONARY UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT
09N126W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO NEAR 20N122W. THE RIDGE IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 145W WITH
THE RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE SPREADING N UNDER THE RIDGE AND
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CUTOFF CYCLONE.
A SECOND UPPER CYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 20N116W. TO THE N OF THESE
CYCLONES IS A FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITH A CENTER ESTIMATED NEAR
28N123W...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO CENTRAL ARIZONA WHERE
SOME DENSE UPPER MOISTURE IS NOW OBSERVED. OTHERWISE THE UPPER
LEVELS ARE DRY N OF 20N...AND OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE
WESTERNMOST CYCLONE.
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EXTENDS SW
ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND THEN S OVER THE E PACIFIC ALONG 109W TO
THE EQUATOR. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 20N BETWEEN 107W
AND 115W AND SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AT
08N110W.
A STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW OFF COLOMBIA ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO A CREST NEAR 16N103W.
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG
THE PACIFIC ITCZ TO THE E OF 100W...AND ALSO ENHANCED QUITE OF
BIT OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 85W AND 93W.
THE RESULTANT UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS CONCENTRATED TO N OF 05N
E OF 103W AND EXTENDS NE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W
CARIBBEAN EVENTUALLY EVAPORATING OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
ALONG 19N.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH PRES IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
27N133W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 25N140W...AND A
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 11N108W. THE RIDGE IS BLOCKING THE
SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO N OF
30N...HOWEVER NW SWELLS TO 12 FT WILL SPREAD SE INTO THE EXTREME
NW PORTION TONIGHT. TO THE E OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE...NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE TODAY...BUT INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL NEAR
29N119W WED NIGHT INTO THU. EASTERLY TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AND N
OF THE ITCZ ARE MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...AND NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
$$
NELSON
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050910
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON KUJIRA (01W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
800 PM CHST TUE MAY 5 2009
...TYPHOON KUJIRA MOVING NORTHEAST AND STARTING TO WEAKEN...
NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 7 PM...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KUJIRA (01W) WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 134.7 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 690 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP AND
770 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BOTH GUAM AND SAIPAN.
KUJIRA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 MPH. IT IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
AND CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 MPH. KUJIRA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES.
REPEATING THE 7 PM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 18.9 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 134.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM WEDNESDAY CHST.
$$
MUNDELL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 050544
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 05 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N9W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W
AND CONTINUING ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 48W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS ALONG 43W S OF 4N. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 10W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-31W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING COVERS THE ERN U.S. AND THE EXTREME
NRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND
ACROSS SRN MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA EXTENDING WWD ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ARE S OF THE
FRONT AS LIGHT SE SURFACE FLOW IS EVIDENT FROM SHIP AND BUOY
OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0000
UTC. THESE WINDS ARE LOCATED ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO THE WRN GULF WATERS. AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN...THE RESULT
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SRN
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS SRN
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
VENEZUELA ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA E OF 75W.
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND SRN MEXICO. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS
ADVECTING EWD OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN TO 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE MONA PASSAGE S ALONG 68W
TO NEAR CARACAS VENEZUELA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES E OF THE AXIS MAINLY N OF 12N.
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN PRIMARILY DUE
TO A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MOVING WWD ACROSS
THE BASIN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ATLANTIC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ANCHORED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ONE RIDGE
EXTENDS SW FROM 37N50W ACROSS BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ONE WEAKNESS ACROSS THE W ATLC IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 30N70W PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 23N72W TO 32N72W AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A LARGE
DIFFLUENT ZONE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE W ATLC AND IS DRAWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN NWD INTO THE UPPER LOW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND TROPICAL ATLC FROM 13N-26N BETWEEN 56W-66W.
THE SECOND RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLC FROM SURFACE HIGH
ANCHORED WELL N OF THE AZORES. THE WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AS A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR
31N39W PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
25N40W TO BEYOND 32N40W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS FROM 27N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 31W-40W.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050356
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 05 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 7N91W 7N100W 8N106W 6N115W
5N125W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W-131W AND ALSO W OF 138W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS IDENTIFIED NEAR 9N120W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING NNW TO 14N123W TO 22N126W. A MORE SUBTLE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE ANTICYCLONE E TO NEAR 114W. TO THE NW OF THE ANTICYCLONE
...AN UPPER LEVEL SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT
IS NEAR 17N135W WITH A TROUGH SW TO 15N140W. A JET STREAM BRANCH
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 10N140W...AND SHARPLY TURNS NE TO
15N133W TO 21N127W BEFORE DIVING SE TO 18N116W AND TURNING ENE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION
STRETCHING FROM THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SW TO CENTRAL MEXICO AND
SW TO A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SITUATED NEAR 16N107W. THE
TROUGH THEN CONTINUES S FROM THERE TO 10N107W TO 06N107W AND SE
TO NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 106W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT W OF
THE TROUGH TO THE ANTICYCLONE.
A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME CONSISTING OF BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ORIGINATES FROM ITCZ-RELATED CENTRAL PACIFIC CONVECTION
AND IS BEING CHANNELED NEWD INTO THE AREA VIA THE JET STREAM
BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 17N135W AND THE
ANTICYCLONE. THE MOSITURE PLUME RIDES UP AND OVER THE RIDGE
CREST TO NEAR 17N124W WHERE THE CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED AS THE
PLUME THINS OUT...THEN SPILLS SE TO NEAR 13N118W. TO THE NW OF
THIS MOSITURE...AND W OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS STABLE AS SEEN ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHERE
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS
BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH
A PORTION OF THE MOISTURE PLUME ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION
CENTER TO WITHIN 300 NM IN THE N QUADRANT. EVEN THE TROPICAL
MARINE LAYER CONSISTING OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAS SHRUNK...AND
IS DEPICTED AS MAINLY BROKEN FROM 15N TO 26N W OF 128W...OR S OF
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N133W AND ALSO E OF THE HIGH
BETWEEN 118W AND 128W.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DEBRIS CIRRUS CLOUDS EMANATING FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION ARE BEING CHANNELED NWD TOWARDS SE MEXICO...GUATEMALA
AND WRN GUATEMALA DRIVEN BY A JET STREAM BRANCH LOCATED TO THE
E OF THE FAR ERN TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE NEWD TO ACROSS SE MEXICO
AND WRN GUATEMALA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK ISOLATED TSTMS SE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE ITCZ ARE ENHANCED MAINLY BY DIFFLUENCE
OCCURRING E OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTED BY
BROAD/MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED TO THE E OF THE TROUGH
WITH A MEAN RIDGE AXIS NW TO SE ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL
AMERICA SE TO A SMALL ANTICYCLONE OVER NW COAST OF COLOMBIA.
DIFFLUENCE NOTED SW OF THE RIDGE EARLIER HELPED SUSTAIN SCATTERED
MODERATE ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 89W-95W.
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 17N135W WILL MOVE NW THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HRS IN A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FLOW ENVIRONMENT AS IT
GRADUALLY NEARS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF
THE AREA.
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF THE JET
STREAM NEAR 9N132W SE TO 5N125W THEN BECOMES VERY NARROW TO
NEAR 1N121W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH.
ITCZ CONVECTION IS RATHER CLUSTERED ALONG AND SE OF THE TROUGH
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W.
SPURTS OF SCATTERED THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING EWD ARE ALONG
32N DUE TO A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES N OF THE AREA IN
FAST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OFF A LARGE CYCLONIC VORTEX
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N133W
WITH A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N116W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS KEEPING STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WITH ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS TO THE N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA.
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL SUPPORT NW 20-25 KT
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST W TO NEAR 122W THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HRS. S OF THE HIGH CENTER NEAR 25N133W...THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HRS W OF ABOUT 122W.
A LATE SEASON LARGE NW SWELL TRAIN CONSISTING OF SEA HEIGHTS IN
THE 8-12 FT RANGE WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 12-13 SECONDS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE TUE PER LATEST WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE.
$$
AGUIRRE
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 050245
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON KUJIRA (01W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 PM CHST TUE MAY 5 2009
...TYPHOON KUJIRA MOVING NORTHEAST...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 1 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KUJIRA (01W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 133.4 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 735 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR PALAU AND
660 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP.
TYPHOON KUJIRA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 18 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 120 MPH. TYPHOON KUJIRA IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN STRENGTH TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN BEFORE BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES.
REPEATING THE 1 PM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 17.9 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 133.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 18 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 PM CHST.
$$
LEE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 042353
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 04 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N9W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W
AND CONTINUING TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. THE ITCZ IS ACTIVE TODAY
ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 10W-13W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN
17W-20W...FROM 1N-1S BETWEEN 20W-23W...FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN
28W-31W...AND FROM 1S-3S BETWEEN 35W-38W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COAST FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 86W-87W. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NE MEXICO FROM
20N-27N BETWEEN 98W-102W. THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO HAVE
SE RETURN FLOW...HOWEVER...THE SURFACE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED AND
THE WIND SPEEDS ARE MOSTLY 10 KT. OUTSIDE OF THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO...FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUD ARE OVER THE NE GULF
N OF 27N AND E OF 86W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF. EXPECT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE GULF IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ON THE SURFACE...CONTINUED
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SE FLOW.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO BELIZE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG
67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF
80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
70W. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DOT THE S CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM BERMUDA TO
N FLORIDA. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S BAHAMAS MOVING
W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 31N69W 27N71W
23N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
N OF 27N. ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
32N44W TO 25N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN
35W-40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 26N70W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N38W. IN THE TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER GUYANA NEAR 6N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER W
AFRICA AND THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC S OF 20N AND E OF 35W. EXPECT
...THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS TO DRIFT W OVER THE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.
$$
FORMOSA
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042204
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 04 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 7N90W 7N100W 8N107W 5N120W
7N129W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 127W-133W AND WITHIN 120 NM
S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-03W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXISTS FROM 4N-8N W OF 136W...AND ALSO S OF THE AXIS WITHIN
30 NM OF 4N98.5W.
...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER AND NEARLY STATIONARY WELL ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE IS
NEAR 12N120W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NNW TO 17N121W TO 24N125W. A
MORE SUBTLE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE E TO NEAR 114W.
TO THE NW OF THE ANTICYCLONE...AN UPPER LEVEL SMALL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT IS NEAR 17N135W WITH A TROUGH
SW TO 15N140W. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH
10N140W...AND SHARPLY TURNS NE TO 15N133W TO 21N127W BEFORE
DIVING SE TO 18N116W AND TURNING ENE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION STRETCHING FROM THE NW
GULF OF MEXICO SW TO CENTRAL MEXICO AND SW TO A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION SITUATED NEAR 16N107W. THE TROUGH THEN CONTINUES
S FROM THERE TO 10N107W TO 06N107W AND SE TO NEAR THE EQUATOR
AT 106W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT W OF THE TROUGH TO THE
ANTICYCLONE.
A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME CONSISTING OF BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ORIGINATES FROM ITCZ-RELATED CENTRAL PACIFIC CONVECTION
AND IS BEING CHANNELED NEWD INTO THE AREA VIA THE JET STREAM
BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 17N135W AND THE
ANTICYCLONE. THE MOSITURE PLUME RIDGES UP AND OVER THE RIDGE
CREST TO NEAR 17N124W WHERE THE CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED AS THE
PLUME THINS OUT AND THEN SPILLS SE TO NEAR 13N118W. TO THE NW OF
THIS MOSITURE...AND W OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS PRETTY STABLE AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EVEN THE
TROPICAL MARINE LAYER CONSISTING OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAS
SHRUNK...AND IS DEPICTED AS MAINLY BROKEN FROM 15N TO 26N W OF
128W...OR S OF THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N133W AND ALSO
E OF THE HIGH BETWEEN 118W AND 128W.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DEBRIS CIRRUS CLOUDS EMANATING FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION ARE BEING CHANNELED NWD TOWARDS SE MEXICO...GUATEMALA
AND WRN GUATEMALA DRIVEN BY A JET STREAM BRANCH LOCATED TO THE
E OF THE FAR ERN TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE NEWD TO ACROSS SE MEXICO
AND WRN GUATEMALA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE ITCZ ARE ENHANCED MAINLY BY
DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING E OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE QUICKLY DEVELOPING OVER THE MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTED BY BROAD/MID UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LOCATED TO THE E OF THE TROUGH WITH A MEAN RIDGE AXIS
NW TO SE ALONG THE SPINE OF CENTRAL AMERICA SE TO A SMALL
ANTICYCLONE OVER NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. DIFFLUENCE NOTED SW
OF THE RIDGE IS ALSO HELPING TO SUSTAIN ITCZ CONVECTION
BETWEEN 89W-95W.
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 17N135W WILL MOVE NW THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HRS IN A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FLOW ENVIRONMENT AS IT
GRADUALLY NEARS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF
THE AREA.
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF THE JET
STREAM NEAR 9N132W SE TO 5N125W THEN BECOMES VERY NARROW TO
NEAR 1N121W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH.
ITCZ CONVECTION IS RATHER CLUSTERED ALONG AND SE OF THE TROUGH
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W.
SPURTS OF SCATTERED THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING EWD ARE ALONG
32N DUE TO A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES N OF THE AREA IN
FAST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OFF A LARGE CYCLONIC VORTEX
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 25N133W
WITH A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 18N116W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS KEEPING STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WITH ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS TO THE N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA.
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL SUPPORT NW 20-25 KT
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST W TO NEAR 122W THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HRS. S OF THE HIGH CENTER NEAR 25N133W...THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 48W
W OF ABOUT 122W.
A LATE SEASON LARGE NW SWELL TRAIN CONSISTING OF SEA HEIGHTS IN
THE 8-13 FT RANGE WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 12-13 SECONDS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE MON PER LATEST WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE.
$$
AGUIRRE
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 042202
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON KUJIRA (01W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
800 AM CHST TUE MAY 5 2009
...TYPHOON KUJIRA MOVING NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFYING...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 7 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KUJIRA (01W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.8 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 720 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR PALAU AND
690 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP.
TYPHOON KUJIRA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 16 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH. TYPHOON KUJIRA IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TODAY...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES.
REPEATING THE 7 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 17.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 131.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 16 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM CHST.
$$
BAQUI
000
AXNT20 KNHC 041731
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 04 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N8W 4N15W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W
AND CONTINUING ALONG 2S36W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S46W. THE ITCZ
IS VERY ACTIVE TODAY ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 40W. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 3.5N1.5W
AND WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 3.5N16.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 5N11W 2N26W WITH
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM THE SW COAST OF AFRICA TO
JUST S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 10W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 2N ACROSS
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 11W-15W AND FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 27W-37W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E U.S. AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF OF
MEXICO OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY SW INTO TEXAS
JUST S OF CORPUS CHRISTI. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ARE W OF
THE FRONT...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE
E SIDE OF VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E GULF.
THIS IS PRODUCING S TO SE WINDS OVER THE GULF EXPECT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS NW OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
OVER THE NW GULF WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A STATIONARY/WARM
BOUNDARY. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGH CIRRUS DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE NE GULF KEEPING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
VENEZUELA ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA E OF 80W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS S ALONG 65W TO JUST OFF THE NE COAST OF VENEZUELA
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES N OF 13N BETWEEN 58W-66W. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N BETWEEN
64W-73W INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS
COVER THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY DUE TO THE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ATLANTIC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ANCHORED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND EXTENDING SW
ACROSS BERMUDA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 27N70W
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N70W
TO 22N68W AND PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 24N62W 27N67W TO 27N71W. TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN IS BEING DRAWN N INTO THE UPPER LOW
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 24N FROM 60W-66W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 29N39W
PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N38W
TO BEYOND 32N42W GENERATING SIMILAR ACTIVITY FROM 29N TO BEYOND
32N BETWEEN 35W-41W. AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E
TROPICAL ATLC FROM 7N-23N E OF 40W.
$$
WALLACE
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041603
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 04 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS WAS ALONG 07N78W TO 06N82W TO 08N100W TO 07N110W TO
04N122W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM N AND 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W
AND 100W...AND ALSO A SEPARATE CLUSTERS WITHIN 180 NM OF
05N119W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 09N126W TO 07N140W.
...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE...MOVING SLOWLY WSW...HAS
NEARLY CUT OFF FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH NEAR 16N134W...BUT THERE
IS STILL EVIDENCE OF A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING N FROM THE
CYCLONE ALONG 23N130W TO 26N117W...AND A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SHEAR AXIS. DRY UPPER AIR HAS BEEN NOTED
OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE AND HAS ROTATED AROUND THE
SE QUADRANT AND IS BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO THE CENTER. AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE NEAR HAWAII HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING E INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA TO A SHARP CREST NEAR 27N140W. A QUASI
STATIONARY UPPER ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED AT 12N122W WITH ITS
ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS FROM
05N TO 25N BETWEEN 112W AND 128W. HOWEVER THIS HIGH APPEARS TO
HAVE BEGUN TO DRIFT W IN TANDEM WITH THE CUT OFF LOW. THE
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS IS SLOWLY ERODING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
BETWEEN 130W AND 118W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THE RIDGE AND
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE CUTOFF CYCLONE HAS BEEN ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND
145W...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED NE.
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS ARE OVER THE THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH TWO UPPER TROUGHS MERGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THEN CONTINUING SW ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA ALONG 20N97W INTO AN ELONGATING MID TO UPPER CYCLONE
OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 09N106W...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING
S ACROSS THE EQUATOR AT 105W. A STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
NW OFF COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA CRESTING ALONG THE E
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER
CYCLONE AT 09N106W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER ITS E
SEMICIRCLE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE PACIFIC ITCZ TO THE E OF 100W.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB HIGH PRES IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
27N133W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 26N140W...AND A
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 16N116W. THE RIDGE IS BLOCKING THE
SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO N OF
30N...HOWEVER LARGE NW SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE SE INTO THE EXTREME
NW PORTION IN 24 HOURS...BUILDING SEAS TO 12 FT. TO THE E OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE... NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE
OBSERVED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE TODAY...DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON TUE...AND
INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 TO 25 KT WED...WITH PEAK SEAS ACROSS THE
AREA BUILDING TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL OFF THE BAJA NEAR 30N118W WED
NIGHT. NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE
ITCZ ARE MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...WITH ZONES OF 20
KT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
$$
STRIPLING
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 041555
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON KUJIRA (01W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 AM CHST TUE MAY 5 2009
...TYPHOON KUJIRA MOVING NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFYING...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 1 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KUJIRA (01W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.2 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 730 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR PALAU AND
750 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP.
TYPHOON KUJIRA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 MPH. TYPHOON KUJIRA IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY TODAY.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES.
REPEATING THE 1 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 17.1 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 130.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM CHST.
$$
BAQUI
000
AXNT20 KNHC 041041
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 04 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N10W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W
AND CONTINUING ALONG 1S30W 1S40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-25W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM
3S TO 3N BETWEEN 30W-36W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COMBINATION OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NRN GULF IS PRODUCING SE WINDS FROM
10 TO 20 KT. NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE GULF...HOWEVER A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS SRN ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...AND LOUISIANA THAT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS INLAND OVER THE
SE CONUS. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO POSITIONED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
TEXAS GULF COAST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH THE NW GULF
WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND
LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO MORE OVERALL ZONAL FLOW AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NE. ONLY A FEW BANDS OF CIRRUS
CLOUDS STRETCH ACROSS THE NE GULF ON DIFFLUENT FLOW LOCATED
ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND FLORIDA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AS THE ANALYZED
PRESSURE FIELD CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A RELATIVELY RELAXED
GRADIENT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXISTS IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SWD ALONG 65W TO THE NE COAST OF
VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND NE CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF A SAINT LUCIA TO WRN PUERTO RICO
LINE...AS OBSERVED FROM THE GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE AND PUERTO
RICO RADARS. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NRN
COLOMBIA EXTENDS RIDGING TO THE NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AS FAR
N AS BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N WITH
MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY INLAND ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA. DEBRIS
MOISTURE FROM THE CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...IN
THE FORM OF SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS...IS SPREADING NE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 46N21W WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 34N54W AND TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. TWO SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ARE OF INTEREST WHICH ARE
EMBEDDED WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE FIRST IS A
SURFACE TROUGH NE OF PUERTO RICO ALONG 69W FROM ROUGHLY 21N TO
29N. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W-NW WITH A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 28N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE PRESENT WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 21N62W TO 28N69W.
THE SURFACE WINDS ARE ENHANCED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH E TO SE
WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT. THE SECOND FEATURE IS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 25N38W TO BEYOND 32N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N-34N BETWEEN 35W-41W.
A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N38W ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER MOST OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH CYCLONICALLY TURNING WINDS OBSERVED AS FAR S
AS 10N. FINALLY...THERE IS AN ENHANCEMENT OF NELY SURFACE WINDS
OF 20-25 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE WEST
COAST OF MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE
SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD...WHILE THE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD
GRADUALLY FILL.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040956
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 04 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 08N99W TO 03N120W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS CONFIRMED BY LIGHTNING
DATA WITHIN SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM
EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 07N83W TO 06N100W AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 07N104W TO 04N122W TO 04N129W TO
09N140W...AND A SEPARATE CLUSTER WITHIN 90 NM OF 09N128W.
...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS NEARLY CUT OFF FROM ITS PARENT
TROUGH NEAR 17N133W...BUT THERE IS STILL EVIDENCE OF A CYCLONIC
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING N FROM THE CYCLONE ALONG 24N130W TO
27N120W...AND WELL DEFINED BY A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR WITHIN 90
NM OF THE SHEAR AXIS. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED OVER THE W
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE AND NOW ROTATING AROUND THE SE
QUADRANT VERY NEAR THE CENTER. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR HAWAII
HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO A SHARP
CREST NEAR 25N137W. A QUASI STATIONARY UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS
CENTERED AT 12N120W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS FROM 05N TO 25N BETWEEN 112W AND
128W. THE CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS IS SLOWLY ERODING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE BETWEEN 130W AND 118W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THE RIDGE AND
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE CUTOFF CYCLONE HAS BEEN ENHANCING
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 135W...WITH THE
DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED NE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE
FROM 09N130W TO 18N126W WITH THE MOISTURE FANS OUT COVERING THE
AREA FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 114W AND 133W.
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS ARE OVER THE THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH TWO UPPER TROUGHS MERGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THEN CONTINUING SW ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA ALONG 20N98W INTO A MID TO UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE
PACIFIC NEAR 09N106W...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING S ACROSS
THE EQUATOR AT 105W. A STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW OFF
COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA CRESTING OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER CYCLONE AT 09N106W IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE PACIFIC ITCZ
TO THE E OF 100W...AND ALSO ENHANCED A FEW CLUSTERS OVER
INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA. THE COMBINED UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IS
CONCENTRATED TO THE NE OF A LINE FROM 00N82W TO 07N105W AND
EXTENDING NE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN
EVENTUALLY EVAPORATING OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH PRES IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
26N133W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 26N140W...AND A
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 12N113W. THE RIDGE IS BLOCKING THE
SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO N OF
30N...HOWEVER NW SWELLS TO 12 FT WILL SPREAD SE INTO THE EXTREME
NW PORTION IN 24 HOURS. TO THE E OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE TODAY AND
TUE...BUT INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13
FT IN NW SWELL NEAR 30N118W WED NIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES S OF THE
RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ ARE MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AND
NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
$$
NELSON
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 040900
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON KUJIRA (01W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
800 PM CHST MON MAY 4 2009
...TYPHOON KUJIRA MOVING NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFYING...
NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 7 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KUJIRA (01W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 128.9 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 650 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR PALAU AND 700
MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP.
KUJIRA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 MPH. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 MPH. KUJIRA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE CENTER...
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES.
REPEATING THE 7 PM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 16.8 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 128.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM TUESDAY CHST.
$$
MUNDELL
000
AXNT20 KNHC 040546
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAY 04 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 4N7W 1N20W TO THE EQUATOR AT 35W AND INTO
NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 6W-9W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 31W-36W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COMBINATION OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NRN GULF IS PRODUCING SE WINDS FROM
10 TO 20 KT. NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE GULF...HOWEVER A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT IS POSITIONED INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THIS FRONT
IS FORECAST TO GRAZE THE NW GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AND LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO MORE
OVERALL ZONAL FLOW AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE. ONLY
A BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS STRETCH ACROSS THE NE GULF ON DIFFLUENT
FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND FLORIDA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADEWINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AS THE ANALYZED
PRESSURE FIELD CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A RELATIVELY RELAXED
GRADIENT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXISTS IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING
FROM THE ANEGADA PASSAGE SWD ALONG 64W TO THE NE COAST OF
VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND NE CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF A SAINT LUCIA TO ERN PUERTO RICO
LINE...AS OBSERVED FROM THE GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE AND PUERTO
RICO RADARS. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NRN
COLOMBIA EXTENDS RIDGING TO THE NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AS FAR
N AS BELIZE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY INLAND ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM
THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...IN THE FORM OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS...IS SPREADING NE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 46N23W WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 32N58W AND TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. TWO SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ARE OF INTEREST WHICH ARE
EMBEDDED WEAKNESSES WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE FIRST IS A
SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO ALONG 67W FROM ROUGHLY 19N TO
27N. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W-NW WITH A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 27N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT
WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 21N62W TO 28N68W. THE SURFACE WINDS
ARE ENHANCED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH E TO SE WINDS OF UP TO 20
KT. THE SECOND FEATURE IS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N38W
TO BEYOND 32N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM
E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 27N. A BOARD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
32N38W ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH DOMINATES THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH CYCLONICALLY
TURNING WINDS OBSERVED AS FAR S AS 10N. FINALLY...THERE IS AN
ENHANCEMENT OF NELY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 KT NORTHEAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE WEST COAST OF MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...WHILE THE TROUGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040350
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 04 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 8N99W 6N110W 5N120W 6N129W
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N
OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 128W-131W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-8N W OF 137W.
...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER AND NEARLY STATIONARY WELL ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE IS
NEAR 12N120W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO 19N120W TO 25N120W.
ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE E TO NEAR 13N112W...
THEN ENE TO NEAR 16N105W. TO THE NW OF THE ANTICYCLONE AN UPPER
LEVEL SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 17N133W WITH A TROUGH
SW TO 12N140W. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40-50 KT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH
9N140W...THEN SHARPLY TURNS NE TO 19N129W AND E TO 21N123W
BEFORE DIVING SE TO 20N115W AND ENE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION STRETCHING FROM
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SW TO ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO SW TO
NEAR 15N107W. THE TROUGH THEN BECOMES RATHER NARROW AS IT
CONTINUES S TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION SITUATED NEAR 9N107W...AND SSE TO NEAR THE EQUATOR
AT 106W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT W OF THE TROUGH TO THE
ANTICYCLONE.
A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME CONSISTING OF BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ORIGINATES FROM ITCZ-RELATED CENTRAL PACIFIC CONVECTION
AND IS BEING CHANNELED NEWD INTO THE AREA VIA THE JET STREAM
BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 17N133W AND THE
ANTICYCLONE. THE MOSITURE PLUME RIDGES UP AND OVER THE RIDGE
CREST TO NEAR 17N124W WHERE THE CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED AS THE
PLUME THINS OUT AND THEN SPILLS SE TO NEAR 13N115W. TO THE NW OF
THIS MOSITURE...AND W OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS PRETTY STABLE AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. ONLY A 150
NM WIDE BLANKET OF OVERCAST TO BROKEN LAYER OF STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS IS SEEN TO THE W OF 128W...OR S OF THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTER NEAR 26N133W AND ALSO E OF THE HIGH BETWEEN 120W-127W.
BROKEN MOSTLY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE BEING CHANNELED NWD ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA DRIVEN BY A JET STREAM BRANCH TO THE E OF THE
FAR ERN TROUGH ALONG 3N103W TO 10N102W NEWD TO ACROSS SE MEXICO
AND WRN GUATEMALA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE
SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MOSTLY SMALL
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE PARTS OF GUATEMALA...
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA AND NRN COSTA RICA...BUT ARE WEAKENING WITH
TIME AS THEY MOVE E.
BROAD/MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED E OF THE TROUGH HAS A
MEAN AXIS ROUGHLY STRETCHING E TO W ALONG 10N TO AN ANTICYCLONE
OVER NW COLOMBIA.
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 17N133W WILL MOVE NW THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HRS IN A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FLOW ENVIRONMENT AS IT
GRADUALLY NEARS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF
THE AREA.
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF THE JET
STREAM NEAR 10N132W SE TO 7N129W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO
THE SW OF THE TROUGH. A SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN
BETWEEN THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND THE TROUGH IS
SLIGHTLY ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 128W-133W.
SPURTS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SEWD INTO THE
FAR NRN PORTION OF THE AREA ARE DUE TO A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES N OF THE AREA IN FAST ZONAL FLOW SPUN OFF A LARGE
CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N133W
WITH A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 15N115W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS KEEPING STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WITH ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS TO THE N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA.
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR NW WINDS TO 20 KT ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST
CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HRS.
A LATE SEASON LARGE NW SWELL TRAIN CONSISTING OF SEA HEIGHTS IN
THE 8-13 FT RANGE WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 12-13 SECONDS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE MON PER LATEST WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE.
$$
AGUIRRE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 032358
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA NEAR 5N6W TO 2N10W TO THE
EQUATOR AT 34W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 5W-8W...AND FROM 2N-2S E OF 4W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM
2N-5S BETWEEN 30W-40W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A THIN SQUALL LINE INLAND OVER W
GEORGIA...SE ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER S MISSISSIPPI AND S LOUISIANA
FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 89W-93W. THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
HAVE 10-15 KT SE-S RETURN FLOW. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE W
GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAIL OVER THE
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH
CLOUD ARE OVER THE N GULF STATES AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE SE GULF AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING THE FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT...THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME ZONAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
...A COLD FRONT TO MOVE FROM E TEXAS TO S GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WHILE THE GULF EXPERIENCES CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER WITH
SE FLOW.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W VENEZUELA...AND N COLOMBIA
FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 66W-76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND
JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A BAND OF
BROKEN HIGH CLOUD ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N. EXPECT...
SHOWERS TO DOT THE S CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 13N OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH AXIS BERMUDA TO N
FLORIDA. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S BAHAMAS MOVING W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 27N65W
20N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N38W TO
23N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
27N72W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN
55W-65W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
30N38W. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO DRIFT W OVER THE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE OTHER TROUGH TO DISSIPATE.
$$
FORMOSA
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032204
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N83W 9N93W 6N105W 5N113W 6N125W
5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 108W-110W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
128W-139W.
...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER AND NEARLY STATIONARY WELL ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE IS
NEAR 12N120W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO 19N120W TO 25N120W.
ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE E TO NEAR 13N112W...
THEN ENE TO NEAR 16N105W. TO THE NW OF THE ANTICYCLONE AN UPPER
LEVEL SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 17N133W WITH A TROUGH
SW TO 12N140W. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40-60 KT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH
9N140W...THEN SHARPLY TURNS NE TO 19N129W AND E TO 21N123W
BEFORE DIVING SE TO 20N115W AND ENE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A
MID/UPPER TROUGH NEAR 18N108W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THERE
TO ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO AND NE TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.
BROKEN MOSTLY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE BEING CHANNELED NWD ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA DRIVEN BY A JET STREAM BRANCH TO THE E OF THE
TROUGH ALONG 3N103W TO 10N102W NEWD TO ACROSS SE MEXICO AND WRN
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
INTERIOR OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN
SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BROAD/MID UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE TROUGH WITH A MEAN AXIS
STRETCHING NW TO SE ALONG THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS
SUPPORTING THE SCATTERED TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE FAR ERN
PORTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 84W-89W.
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 17N133W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ABOUT STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS IN A RELATIVELY WEAK
UPPER FLOW ENVIRONMENT...THEN LIFT NW ON TOWARDS A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA.
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF THE JET
STREAM NEAR 10N134W SE TO 7N131W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO
THE SW OF THE TROUGH. A SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN
BETWEEN THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND THE TROUGH IS
SLIGHTLY ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 128W-133W. BROKEN TO
SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC ZONE BY THE JET
STREAM. THE MOISTURE PLUME...ABOUT 300 NM IN WIDTH...IS EVIDENT
TO THE E AND SE OF THE JET STREAM THEN BECOMES SCATTERED AS IT
RIDES ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE SPILLING SE TO NEAR
13N115W.
SPURTS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING SEWD INTO THE
FAR NRN PORTION OF THE AREA ARE DUE TO A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES N OF THE AREA IN FAST ZONAL FLOW.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED 26N133W WITH
A RIDGE SE TO 16N115W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS KEEPING STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS WITH
ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS TO THE N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA.
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR NW WINDS TO 20 KT ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST
CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HRS.
A LARGE NW SWELL TRAIN CONSISTING OF SEA HEIGHTS IN THE 8-11 FT
RANGE WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 12-13 SECONDS WILL ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATE MON PER LATEST WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE.
$$
AGUIRRE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 031735
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 06N03E
TO 01N02W TO THE EQUATOR AT 15W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 01S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA N OF THE EQUATOR AND E OF 07W AND NEAR
THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07S W OF 30W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COMBINATION OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS/MEXICAN COAST AND THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING UP AGAINST
FLORIDA IS PRODUCING SE WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 KT...WITH THE HIGHER
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF
DEEP CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING OVER THE GULF...THOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER IS RACING ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI CURRENTLY
JUST A FEW DOZEN MILES INLAND. UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENT FLOW OVER THE
GULF. A BAND OF CIRRUS STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN TO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LINE.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS MAY MAKE
A BRIEF APPEARANCE OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF...BUT
WOULD SOON BE REPLACED BY SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE BROAD LOW WEAKENS AND THE RIDGE RETREATS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TRADEWINDS HAVE SLACKENED SOMEWHAT COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY
WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN AS THE RIDGING
TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS WEAKENED. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXISTS ALONG THE LESSER ANTILLES...WHICH APPARENTLY BROKE OFF
FROM THE PARENT TROUGH WHICH HAS CONTINUED PROGRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR ABOUT 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...AS OBSERVED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GUADELOUPE
/MARTINIQUE RADARS. THERE IS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE EASTERN PANAMA AND WESTERN COLUMBIA COAST
AS WELL AS OVER HISPANIOLA AND JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
ISLAND. ELSEWHERE NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...WINDS UP TO 70 KT ARE ANTICYCLONICALLY
TURNING NORTH OF A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 10N71W. CIRRUS IS BEING
ADVECTED EASTWARD BY THESE WINDS FROM OUTFLOW PRODUCED BY DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC`S ITCZ. MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SHOULD REMAIN TRANQUIL DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WHICH MAY
SEE SOME ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WAY UP AT 47N23W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
32N60W AND TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TWO SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
ARE OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS A SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO ALONG 65W FROM ROUGHLY 21N TO 28N. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING NORTHWESTWARD AND A PIECE MAY HAVE BROKEN OFF AND IS
NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES...AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. A MID TO UPPER
LOW EXISTS WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND IS HELPING TO ADVECT
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE TROUGH AND TO ITS EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE PRESENT WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND 180 NM
E OF THE AXIS. THE SURFACE WINDS ARE ENHANCED E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. THE SECOND
FEATURE IS A TROUGH...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDING FROM
25N42W TO 32N38W TO 43N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 27N. A BOARD UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 31N40W ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
DOMINATES THE UPPER WINDS OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH
CYCLONICALLY TURNING WINDS OBSERVED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 10N.
FINALLY...THERE IS AN ENHANCEMENT OF NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
OF 20-25 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE WEST
COAST OF MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA. OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...THE SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF PUERTO RICO SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...WHILE THE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SHOULD GRADUALLY FILL.
$$
LANDSEA
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031513
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 7N78W 5N110W 6N105W 4N115W 07N125W 5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE AXIS E OF 80W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM
96W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITH 60 NM
RADIUS OF 9N131W.
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 19N132W WITH A
TROUGH FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SW TO 12N140W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR IS S OF 25N W OF THE TROUGH. A
40-50 KT WIND MAX IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N135W TO
23N128W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AREA WITHIN
300 NM SE OF THE WIND MAX. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS E OF THE TROUGH NEAR 19N119N...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA INTO NW
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
ACROSS MEXICO TO 20N117W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE
TROUGH.
AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE DEEP
TROPICS IS CENTERED NEAR 10N104W...WITH TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE CIRCULATION S TO THE EQUATOR AT 105W. SW FLOW E OF THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION
INTO CENTRAL AMERICA FROM GUATEMALA TO NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 9N86W. DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 29N129W WITH RIDGE
COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. THE HIGH IS BLOCKING A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO N OF 30N...HOWEVER NW SWELLS TO 10 FT
WILL SPREAD SE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. ALSO THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO IS
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE 20 KT NW WINDS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. A 1011 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE ITCZ
NEAR 7N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM NW SEMICIRCLE.
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 10N124W TO 3N125W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH.
$$
DGS
000
AXNT20 KNHC 031015
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 04N01W
TO 03N10W TO THE EQUATOR AT 23W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 04S38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND
NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 01N TO 05N E OF 05W AND ALONG THE
COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 06S TO 01S W OF 30W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH CLOUDS ON THE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TEXAS HAVE PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NW AND N
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER AND SUBSIDENT
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0318
UTC SHOWS SE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TO 25 KT. THIS STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS THE RESULT OF THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ATLC RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS INTO
THE EASTERN GULF AND THE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS
THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...LOOK FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETREAT TO THE
E SOMEWHAT...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING WINDS
OVER THE W GULF.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS TRANSPORTING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH CENTRAL
AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOUND OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND MUCH OF THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 76W TO 78W. THE 2312
QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED WINDS TO 25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS IN THE ATLC PASSAGES. THESE
STRONG WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED FROM BERMUDA THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND TROUGHING BOTH TO THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. THE
TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH IS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHILE THE TROUGHING
TO THE EAST IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH BEGINNING TO
BREAK DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES DUE TO THE TROUGH. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN
ON THE GUADALOUPE RADAR...WITH A MORE ORGANIZED BAND TO THE SE
OF BARBADOS EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLC. THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
GREATER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SHIFTING THE
MOISTURE POOL AND THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
WESTWARD WITH IT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES FROM BERMUDA JUST NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS INTO FLORIDA...CORRESPONDING WITH THE SAME POSITION
AS THE RIDGE AXIS AS THE SURFACE. MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT IN THIS
REGION HAS BROUGHT FAIR WEATHER HERE. THERE IS NO NOTABLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON BAHAMIAN OR U.S. RADARS IN THIS REGION AT THE
MOMENT. THE 0136 ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
ATLC CAN BE FOUND ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 62W TO 52W FROM 22N TO 27N...WITH EASTERLY WINDS TO 25 KT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GREATEST HERE IN THE REGION BETWEEN
THIS TROUGH AND THE RIDGE AXIS TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARD THE TURKS AND
CAICOS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH IT.
ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE ITCZ ALONG THE COAST OF
BRAZIL FROM 06S TO 01S W OF 30W...COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE ITCZ NEAR THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 01N TO 05N E OF
05W. THIS AREA LIES UNDER A WEAK ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO LIFT THE MOISTURE CONVERGED ALONG THE ITCZ.
THE 2352 AND 2112 ASCAT PASSES SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
TROPICAL E ATLC NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BETWEEN 15N AND
25N E OF 35W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS BEEN TIGHTENED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE DUE TO A DEEP LAYER LOW CENTERED N OF THE AREA...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N37W TO
23N43W. THE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
HERE...ALONG WITH THE WINDS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
$$
SCHAUER CLARK
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030948
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N80W TO 07N110W TO 09N123W TO 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CONFIRMED BY
LIGHTNING DATA WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N78W
TO 07N107W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 107W AND 138W.
...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL N AMERICA EXTENDS SW INTO
THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N98W TO 25N112W TO 27N120W TO
21N130W TO 10N140W...AND IS DEFINED BY A BAND OF DRY UPPER AIR
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR HAWAII HAS
A RIDGE EXTENDING E TO NEAR 23N138W. A QUASI STATIONARY UPPER
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 14N118W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N TO
25N123W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ERODING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE RIDGE HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 150W...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE
ADVECTED NE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 11N130W TO
21N122W THEN NARROWS ALONG 22N105W TO BEYOND 32N91W.
AN UPPER TROUGH DISSECTS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N80W TO
20N95W AND CONTINUES S INTO A MID TO UPPER CYCLONE AT 10N106W
AND FURTHER S INTO ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE AT 06N106W...WITH THE
TROUGH CONTINUING S ACROSS THE EQUATOR AT 108W. A STATIONARY
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW OFF COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
CRESTING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
UPPER TROUGH ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE PACIFIC ITCZ BETWEEN
100W AND 110W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE RIDGE HAS ENHANCED
CONVECTION ALONG THE PACIFIC ITCZ E OF 100W WITH THE COMBINED
UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE CONCENTRATED TO THE N OF A LONE FROM THE
EQUATOR AT 85W TO 08N100W AND EXTENDING NE ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN EVENTUALLY EVAPORATING OVER THE N
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH PRES IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR
26N132W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 25N140W...AND A
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 13N107W. THE RIDGE IS BLOCKING THE
SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO N OF
30N...HOWEVER NW SWELLS TO 10 FT WILL SPREAD SE INTO THE NW
WATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND BUILD TO 12 FT IN 72 HOURS. TO THE
E OF THE RIDGE...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA AND EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EASTERLY TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AND
N OF THE ITCZ ARE MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AND NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
$$
NELSON
000
AXNT20 KNHC 030528
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA AT 05N08W TO THE EQUATOR AT
29W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 04S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM
05S TO 01S W OF 30W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH CLOUDS ON THE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TEXAS ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER AND SUBSIDENT
CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0048
UTC SHOWS SE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TO 25 KT. THIS
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS THE RESULT OF THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ATLC RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND THE TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...LOOK FOR THE RIDGE
AXIS TO RETREAT TO THE E SOMEWHAT...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND RESULTING WINDS OVER THE W GULF.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS TRANSPORTING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH CENTRAL
AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH MULTILAYERED
CLOUDINESS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE 2312 QUIKSCAT PASS
REVEALED WINDS TO 25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS IN THE ATLC PASSAGES. THESE
STRONG WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED FROM BERMUDA THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND TROUGHING BOTH TO THE SOUTH AND THE EAST. THE
TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH IS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHILE THE TROUGHING
TO THE EAST IS ATTRIBUTED TO THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH BEGINNING TO
BREAK DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES DUE TO THE TROUGH. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN
ON THE GUADALOUPE RADAR...WITH A MORE ORGANIZED BAND NEAR
BARBADOS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLC. THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
GREATER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SHIFTING THE
MOISTURE POOL AND THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
WESTWARD WITH IT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY LIES FROM BERMUDA JUST NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS INTO FLORIDA...CORRESPONDING WITH THE SAME POSITION
AS THE RIDGE AXIS AS THE SURFACE. MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT IN THIS
REGION HAS BROUGHT FAIR WEATHER HERE. THERE IS NO NOTABLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON BAHAMIAN...BERMUDAN...OR U.S. RADARS IN THIS REGION
AT THE MOMENT. THE 2308 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE WESTERN ATLC CAN BE FOUND ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 62W FROM 22N TO 27N...WITH EASTERLY
WINDS TO 25 KT IN THIS AREA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE RIDGE AXIS IS GREATEST. THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARD THE TURKS
AND CAICOS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH IT.
ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC...CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IS
STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 05S TO 01S W OF
30W...COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. THE 1948 AND 2130 UTC QUIKSCAT PASSES SHOW THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE TROPICAL E ATLC BETWEEN 15N AND 25N E OF
35W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEEN
TIGHTENED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DUE TO
A DEEP LAYER LOW CENTERED N OF THE AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N38W TO 25N41W. THE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN HERE...ALONG WITH
THE WINDS...OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
$$
SCHAUER CLARK
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030404
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 03 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N87W 8N100W 6N115W 3N121W 4N130W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 84W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W-111W.
...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER AND NEARLY STATIONARY WELL ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE IS
NEAR 12N119W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 17N111W
TO 19N107W AND NE TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THEN THE FAR WRN
GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO
NEAR 8N128W. TO THE NW OF THE ANTICYCLONE AN UPPER LEVEL
...SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 19N133W
WITH A TROUGH SW TO W OF THE AREA AT 15N140W. A JET STREAM
BRANCH SEPARATES BOTH OF THESE FEATURES...AND ENTERS THE REGION
THROUGH 11N140W...BRANCHING NE TO 17N131W TO 22N126W THEN EWD TO
24N119W TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN NEWD TO ACROSS
NRN MEXICO. 200 MB UPPER AIR WIND DATA SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS OF
40-60 KT ALONG THE JET STREAM. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM JUST S OF THIS JET STREAM NEAR 10N137W SE TO 6N132W.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH. A SLIGHT
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN BETWEEN THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE AND THE TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION
BETWEEN 128W-133W. BROKEN TO OCCASIONALLY OVERCAST MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC ZONE BY THE JET STREAM. THE MOISTURE
PLUME...ABOUT 300 NM IN WIDTH...IS PRETTY MUCH ALONG AND S OF THE
ABOVE MENTIONED JET STREAM BRANCH. THE CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED
E OF 121W TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO ACROSS N CENTRAL
MEXICO.
ANOTHER PLUME OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS SURGING SEWD INTO THE
FAR NE CORNER OF THE AREA...CARRIED EWD IN PULSES OF ENERGY
IN FAST ZONAL FLOW OBSERVED N OF 29N. THESE CLOUDS ARE RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGING THAT IS SLIDING E OVER CALIFORNIA EXTENDING
SW TO NEAR 30N123W.
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOUT STATIONARY
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS IN A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FLOW
ENVIRONMENT.
OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE AREA E OF THE RIDGE...A NEARLY
STATIONARY SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SW TO ACROSS SE MEXICO TO A NARROW
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 13N103W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO 6N107W
TO S OF THE EQUATOR AT 109W. BROKEN MOSTLY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
BEING CHANNELED NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DRIVEN BY A JET
STREAM BRANCH TO THE E OF THE TROUGH ALONG 5N104W TO 10N100W
NEWD TO ACROSS SE MEXICO AND WRN GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE ALSO TIED TO
THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER INTERIOR OF HONDURAS...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SIMILAR ACTIVITY MAY REDEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
REMAIN ABOUT STATIONARY.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST FLATTEN OUT THROUGH MON IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG ZONAL FLOW N OF 29N.
BROAD/MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE TROUGH
WITH A MEAN AXIS STRETCHING NW TO SE ALONG THE WRN CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS IS SUPPORTING THE SCATTERED TO STRONG CONVECTION
OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 84W-89W.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED 26N132W WITH
A RIDGE SE TO 14N110W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS KEEPING WINTER TYPE FRONTS AND
ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS TO THE N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA.
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR NW WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST
TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN 24 HRS WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE NW SWELL TRAIN CONSISTING OF SEA HEIGHTS IN THE 8-11 FT
RANGE WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 11-13 SECONDS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE
THE FAR NW WATERS LATE SUN THROUGH MON PER LATEST WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT HAS BEEN DELAYED TO ABOUT
A DAY COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO.
$$
AGUIRRE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 022341
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 02 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA AT 5N9W TO 3N20W TO THE
EQUATOR AT 27W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S40W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-2S BETWEEN
10W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1S-6S BETWEEN
31W-47W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 30N IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE-S
RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
OVER THE W GULF WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING WITH
THE APPROACH OF A 1004 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES PREVAIL OVER THE GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS ...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE GULF ENHANCING THE FAIR WEATHER. FURTHER N...
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUD ARE INLAND OVER THE
N GULF STATES. EXPECT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE N GULF STATES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE GULF
EXPERIENCES MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W VENEZUELA...AND N COLOMBIA
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
87W-92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH
CLOUD ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 13N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...SHOWERS TO DOT THE
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM 35N53W TO
N FLORIDA NEAR 30N80W. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
BAHAMAS MOVING W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 26N60W 15N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
32N37W TO 27N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 60W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 23N52W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 33W-45W. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N.
EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.
$$
FORMOSA
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