Table 3.
Estimation Results for National and Sub-PAD District Regions |
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Dependent
Variable: D(RETUS) |
Dependent Variable: D(RETPAD1X) |
Dependent Variable: D(RETPAD1Y) |
Dependent Variable: D(RETPAD1Z) |
Dependent Variable: D(RETCA) |
Sample:
1/03/2000 to 6/24/2002 |
Sample: 1/03/2000 to 6/24/2002 |
Sample: 1/03/2000 to 6/24/2002 |
Sample: 1/03/2000 to 6/24/2002 |
Sample: 5/29/2000 to 4/30/2001 |
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11/05/2001 to 6/24/2002 |
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Variable |
Coefficient |
Variable |
Coefficient |
Variable |
Coefficient |
Variable |
Coefficient |
Variable |
Coefficient |
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C |
0.005 |
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C |
-0.001 |
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C |
0.017 |
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C |
-0.013 |
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C |
0.013 |
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(0.114) |
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(0.101) |
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(0.100) |
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(0.112) |
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(0.215) |
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DSPOTUS(-1) |
0.437*** |
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DSPOTPAD1X(-1) |
0.210*** |
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DSPOTPAD1Y(-1) |
0.249*** |
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DSPOTPAD1Z(-1) |
0.346*** |
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DSPOTCA(-1) |
0.241*** |
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(0.026) |
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(0.023) |
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(0.023) |
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(0.026) |
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(0.031) |
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DSPOTUS(-2) |
0.223*** |
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DSPOTPAD1X(-2) |
0.208*** |
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DSPOTPAD1Y(-2) |
0.202*** |
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DSPOTPAD1Z(-2) |
0.257*** |
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DSPOTCA(-2) |
0.137*** |
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(0.027) |
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(0.023) |
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(0.023) |
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(0.026) |
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(0.033) |
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DSPOTUS(-3) |
0.110*** |
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DSPOTPAD1X(-3) |
0.151*** |
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DSPOTPAD1Y(-3) |
0.163*** |
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DSPOTPAD1Z(-3) |
0.187*** |
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DSPOTCA(-3) |
0.147*** |
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(0.027) |
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(0.023) |
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(0.023) |
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(0.026) |
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(0.034) |
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DSPOTUS(-4) |
0.063** |
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DSPOTPAD1X(-4) |
0.102*** |
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DSPOTPAD1Y(-4) |
0.102*** |
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DSPOTPAD1Z(-4) |
0.098*** |
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DSPOTCA(-4) |
0.137*** |
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(0.026) |
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(0.022) |
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(0.023) |
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(0.026) |
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(0.033) |
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DSPOTUS(-5) |
0.089*** |
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DSPOTPAD1X(-5) |
0.124*** |
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DSPOTPAD1Y(-5) |
0.101*** |
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DSPOTPAD1Z(-5) |
0.100*** |
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DSPOTCA(-5) |
0.111*** |
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(0.027) |
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(0.022) |
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(0.023) |
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(0.026) |
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(0.033) |
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DSPOTUS(-6) |
0.058** |
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DSPOTPAD1X(-6) |
0.075*** |
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DSPOTPAD1Y(-6) |
0.077*** |
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DSPOTPAD1Z(-6) |
0.046* |
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DSPOTCA(-6) |
0.061** |
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(0.027) |
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(0.022) |
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(0.023) |
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(0.026) |
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(0.030) |
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DSPOTUS(-7) |
0.048* |
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DSPOTPAD1X(-7) |
0.082*** |
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DSPOTPAD1Y(-7) |
0.066*** |
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DSPOTPAD1Z(-7) |
0.061** |
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DSPOTCA(-7) |
0.083*** |
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(0.026) |
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(0.022) |
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(0.023) |
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(0.026) |
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(0.029) |
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DSPOTPAD1X(-8) |
0.048** |
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DSPOTPAD1Y(-8) |
0.060*** |
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DSPOTPAD1Z(-8) |
0.020 |
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(0.022) |
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(0.023) |
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(0.026) |
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DSPOTPAD1X(-9) |
0.053** |
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DSPOTPAD1Y(-9) |
0.059** |
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(0.023) |
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(0.023) |
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DSPOTPAD1X(-10) |
0.045** |
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DSPOTPAD1Y(-10) |
0.041* |
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(0.023) |
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(0.023) |
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DSPOTPAD1X(-11) |
0.038* |
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(0.023) |
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Sum of Spot Lags |
1.029 |
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Sum of Spot Lags |
1.137 |
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Sum of Spot Lags |
1.120 |
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Sum of Spot Lags |
1.115 |
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Sum of Spot Lags |
0.916 |
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Adj. R^2 |
0.836 |
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Adj. R^2 |
0.751 |
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Adj. R^2 |
0.757 |
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Adj. R^2 |
0.805 |
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Adj. R^2 |
0.640 |
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S.E. Regression |
1.297 |
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S.E. Regression |
1.148 |
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S.E. Regression |
1.139 |
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S.E. Regression |
1.280 |
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S.E. Regression |
1.931 |
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AIC |
3.418133 |
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AIC |
3.200996 |
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AIC |
3.178143 |
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AIC |
3.397565 |
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AIC |
4.245652 |
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F-statistic |
94.9 |
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F-statistic |
36.4 |
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F-statistic |
41.1 |
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F-statistic |
67.8 |
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F-statistic |
21.8 |
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D.W. statistic |
2.04 |
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D.W. statistic |
1.00 |
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D.W. statistic |
1.02 |
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D.W. statistic |
1.80 |
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D.W. statistic |
1.12 |
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Source: EIA calculations. |
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