Summary Tables
Table S–1. Budget Totals
| 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 |
In billions of dollars: | | | | | | |
Outlays | 2,052 | 2,128 | 2,189 | 2,277 | 2,369 | 2,468 |
Receipts | 1,946 | 2,048 | 2,175 | 2,338 | 2,455 | 2,572 |
Deficit/surplus | -106 | -80 | -14 | 61 | 86 | 104 |
Debt held by the public | 3,477 | 3,570 | 3,600 | 3,548 | 3,470 | 3,379 |
As a percent of GDP: | | | | | | |
Outlays | 19.8 | 19.5 | 19.0 | 18.7 | 18.5 | 18.3 |
Receipts | 18.8 | 18.8 | 18.9 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.1 |
Deficit/surplus | -1.0 | -0.7 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
Debt held by the public | 33.6 | 32.7 | 31.2 | 29.2 | 27.1 | 25.1 |
Table S–2. Budget Summary by Category
(In billions of dollars)
| 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | Total |
2003–2007 | 2003–2012 |
Outlays: | | | | | | | | |
Discretionary: | | | | | | | | |
Defense | 336 | 368 | 390 | 412 | 428 | 442 | 2,041 | 4,531 |
Non-defense | 382 | 405 | 418 | 423 | 429 | 437 | 2,112 | 4,454 |
Subtotal, discretionary | 718 | 773 | 808 | 835 | 857 | 880 | 4,153 | 8,984 |
Emergency Response Fund | 22 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 1 | * | 27 | 27 |
Mandatory: | | | | | | | | |
Social Security | 456 | 472 | 491 | 515 | 542 | 571 | 2,591 | 6,001 |
Medicare | 223 | 231 | 241 | 257 | 278 | 302 | 1,308 | 3,141 |
Medicaid | 145 | 159 | 170 | 184 | 200 | 217 | 930 | 2,315 |
Other mandatory | 310 | 297 | 283 | 291 | 303 | 313 | 1,488 | 3,243 |
Subtotal, mandatory | 1,133 | 1,159 | 1,185 | 1,248 | 1,323 | 1,402 | 6,318 | 14,700 |
Net interest | 178 | 181 | 189 | 190 | 188 | 185 | 933 | 1,767 |
Total Outlays | 2,052 | 2,128 | 2,189 | 2,277 | 2,369 | 2,468 | 11,431 | 25,478 |
Receipts | 1,946 | 2,048 | 2,175 | 2,338 | 2,455 | 2,572 | 11,588 | 26,481 |
Unified Surplus | -106 | -80 | -14 | 61 | 86 | 104 | 157 | 1,002 |
| | | | | | | | |
On-budget surplus | -262 | -259 | -208 | -156 | -142 | -139 | -904 | -1,464 |
Off-budget surplus | 155 | 179 | 195 | 217 | 228 | 243 | 1,061 | 2,466 |
| | | | | | | | |
* $500
million or less |
Table S–3. Impact of Budget Policy on the Surplus
(In billions of dollars)
| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | Total 2003–2007 |
Current baseline surplus | 51 | 109 | 169 | 764 |
| | | | |
Budget proposals: | | | | |
Defense and homeland security | -31 | -38 | -45 | -224 |
Strengthening Medicare | -2 | -3 | -5 | -50 |
Farm bill reauthorization | -7 | -7 | -7 | -34 |
Provide incentives for charitable giving | -2 | -2 | -3 | -15 |
Health tax credits | -1 | -7 | -9 | -36 |
Reform unemployment | -1 | -1 | -3 | -18 |
Extend expiring tax provisions | -3 | -3 | -5 | -26 |
Other proposals | -6 | 1 | -4 | -20 |
Related debt service | -1 | -4 | -7 | -43 |
Subtotal, budget proposals | -54 | -65 | -88 | -466 |
| | | | |
Budget surplus/deficit,
pre-economic security plan | -3 | 43 | 81 | 298 |
| | | | |
Bipartisan economic security plan | -77 | -57 | -20 | -141 |
| | | | |
Budget surplus/deficit, including economic
security plan | -80 | -14 | 61 | 157 |
Table S–4. Discretionary Totals
(Budget authority; dollar amounts in billions)
| 2001 | | 2002 | | 2003 | | Change 2002–2003 |
| | | | Delta | Percent |
| | | | | | | | |
Discretionary budget
authority: | | | | | | | | |
Homeland security | 10 | | 12 | | 25 | | 13 | 111 |
Department of Defense | 303 | | 328 | | 366 | | 38 | 12 |
Other operations of government | 330 | | 348 | | 355 | | 7 | 2 |
Total, discretionary
budget authority1 | 643 | | 688 | 2 | 746 | | 59 | 9 |
| | | | | | | | |
Adjustments, contingent upon adoption
of proposal: | | | | | | | | |
Full funding of federal employee retirement
costs | 8 | | 9 | | 9 | | | |
Total, including contingent adjustments | 651 | | 696 | | 755 | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
Emergency Response
Fund: | | | | | | | | |
War on terrorism | 13 | | 3 | | 10 | | | |
Homeland security | 3 | | 8 | | — | | | |
Other September 11th response | 5 | | 9 | | — | | | |
Total,
Emergency Response Fund | 20 | | 20 | | 10 | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
1 Excludes
budget authority associated with the mass transit budget category. |
2 Includes
a $1.7 billion upward adjustment, from the 2002 appropriated level, for discretionary
spending offset by mandatory savings enacted in appropriations bills. |
Table S–5. Homeland Security
(Budget authority in billions of dollars)
| | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 |
| | | | |
Total, Homeland Security | 16.0 | 19.5 | 37.7 |
Supporting
first responders | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3.5 |
Defending
against biological terrorism | 1.4 | 1.4 | 5.9 |
Securing
our borders | 7.6 | 8.8 | 10.6 |
Sharing
information and using information technology to secure the homeland | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 |
Aviation
security | 0.4 | 1.5 | 4.8 |
Other
homeland security | 6.3 | 7.4 | 12.2 |
| | | | |
Defense and mandatory/fee
funded programs included above: |
Department
of Defense (DoD) | -4.0 | -4.7 | -7.8 |
Mandatory/fee
funded | -1.5 | -2.9 | -4.7 |
| | | | |
Total, Homeland Security, non-DoD discretionary | 10.5 | 11.9 |
25.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Emergency Response
Fund |
2.5 |
8.1 |
— |
|
|
|
|
|
Table S–6. Year-to-Year
Percentage Growth in Discretionary Budget Authority
|
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
Average |
Agency |
to |
to |
to |
to |
to |
Growth |
|
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
1998–2003 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Agriculture |
4 |
4 |
13 |
* |
* |
4 |
Commerce
1 |
29 |
61 |
-41 |
2 |
* |
4 |
Defense |
6 |
5 |
5 |
8 |
12 |
7 |
Education
2 |
-3 |
2 |
37 |
24 |
1 |
11 |
Energy |
7 |
-1 |
13 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
Health and Human Services |
12 |
9 |
19 |
10 |
9 |
12 |
Housing and Urban Development 3 |
12 |
-6 |
34 |
4 |
7 |
9 |
Interior |
-1 |
6 |
21 |
* |
* |
5 |
State and International Assistance
Programs 4 |
23 |
2 |
-4 |
7 |
4 |
6 |
Justice |
5 |
2 |
13 |
1 |
-1 |
4 |
Labor |
3 |
-20 |
36 |
2 |
-7 |
1 |
Transportation |
-14 |
13 |
28 |
-7 |
19 |
6 |
Treasury |
12 |
-2 |
16 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
Veterans Affairs |
2 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
7 |
6 |
Corps of Engineers |
-2 |
1 |
14 |
-4 |
-10 |
-1 |
Environmental Protection Agency
Operating Program |
5 |
1 |
9 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
Federal Emergency Management
Agency |
18 |
37 |
-38 |
26 |
114 |
22 |
National Aeronautics and Space
Administration |
* |
* |
5 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
National Science Foundation |
7 |
6 |
13 |
8 |
5 |
8 |
Small Business Administration |
16 |
7 |
1 |
-15 |
2 |
2 |
Social Security Administration |
* |
2 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Smithsonian Institution |
2 |
6 |
4 |
9 |
6 |
6 |
Total (excludes full funding of federal employee
retirement costs and Emergency Response Fund) |
6 |
4 |
10 |
7 |
9 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* 0.5 percent or less |
1 2000 Commerce data includes funding for
Census 2000. |
2 2002 funding includes a $1.3 billion
supplemental proposal for Pell Grants. |
3 1998 and 1999 have been adjusted for
reclassification of Federal Housing Administration receipts. |
4 International Affairs Program totals do not
include P.L. 480 Title II food aid, which is included in the totals for
Agriculture; 1999 data is also adjusted to remove $18.2 billion in
one-time funding for the International Monetary
Fund. |
Table S–7. Discretionary
Budget Authority by Agency (In billions of
dollars)
Agency |
2001
Actual |
|
Estimates |
|
Change: |
|
2002 |
|
2003 |
|
2002–2003 |
Legislative Branch |
2.9 |
|
3.1 |
|
3.5 |
|
0.4 |
Judicial Branch |
4.1 |
|
4.4 |
|
5.1 |
|
0.6 |
Agriculture |
19.8 |
|
19.8 |
|
19.8 |
|
–* |
Commerce |
5.2 |
|
5.3 |
|
5.3 |
|
* |
Defense-Military |
305.6 |
|
330.8 |
|
369.3 |
|
38.4 |
Education |
40.1 |
|
49.8 |
1 |
50.3 |
|
0.5 |
Energy |
20.2 |
|
21.0 |
|
21.9 |
|
1.0 |
Health and Human Services |
54.5 |
|
59.8 |
|
65.3 |
|
5.5 |
Housing and Urban Development |
28.4 |
|
29.5 |
|
31.5 |
|
2.0 |
Interior |
10.5 |
|
10.5 |
|
10.5 |
|
* |
Justice |
21.6 |
|
21.9 |
|
21.8 |
|
–0.1 |
Labor |
12.0 |
|
12.3 |
|
11.4 |
|
–0.9 |
State |
7.8 |
|
8.9 |
|
9.2 |
|
0.4 |
Transportation |
18.0 |
|
16.6 |
|
19.8 |
|
3.2 |
Treasury |
15.1 |
|
15.8 |
|
16.6 |
|
0.8 |
Veterans Affairs |
23.2 |
|
24.7 |
|
26.4 |
|
1.8 |
Corps of Engineers |
4.8 |
|
4.6 |
|
4.1 |
|
–0.5 |
Other Defense Civil Programs |
0.1 |
|
0.2 |
|
0.2 |
|
–* |
Environmental Protection Agency |
7.9 |
|
8.0 |
|
7.7 |
|
–0.3 |
Operating program |
(3.9) |
|
(3.9) |
|
(4.0) |
|
(0.1) |
Executive Office of the
President |
0.3 |
|
0.3 |
|
0.3 |
|
0.1 |
Federal Emergency Management
Agency |
2.4 |
|
3.1 |
|
6.6 |
|
3.5 |
General Services Administration |
0.5 |
|
0.6 |
|
0.6 |
|
–* |
International Assistance
Programs |
12.6 |
|
13.1 |
|
13.9 |
|
0.7 |
National Aeronautics and Space
Administration |
14.4 |
|
14.9 |
|
15.1 |
|
0.2 |
National Science Foundation |
4.4 |
|
4.8 |
|
5.0 |
|
0.2 |
Office of Personnel Management |
0.2 |
|
0.2 |
|
0.3 |
|
* |
Small Business Administration |
0.9 |
|
0.8 |
|
0.8 |
|
* |
Social Security Administration |
6.3 |
|
6.7 |
|
7.0 |
|
0.3 |
Other Independent Agencies |
6.8 |
|
6.3 |
|
6.3 |
|
* |
Allowances |
— |
|
–1.3 |
|
–0.4 |
|
0.9 |
Subtotal |
650.7 |
|
696.5 |
|
755.4 |
|
59.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Remove contingent adjustment for
full funding of federal employee retirement costs |
–8.1 |
|
–8.5 |
|
–9.0 |
|
–0.4 |
Total |
642.6 |
|
687.9 |
2 |
746.5 |
|
58.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Emergency Response Fund |
20.0 |
|
20.0 |
|
10.0 |
|
–10.0 |
* $50 million or
less |
1 Includes a $1.3 billion supplemental proposal
for Pell Grants. 2
Includes a $1.7 billion upward adjustment, from the 2002 appropriated
level, for discretionary spending offset by mandatory savings enacted in
appropriations bills. |
Table S–8. Discretionary
Proposals By Appropriations Subcommittee (Budget
authority in billions of dollars)
Appropriations Subcommittee |
2001 Actual |
|
2002 Estimate |
|
2003 Proposed |
|
Change: 2002–2003 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Agriculture and Rural
Development |
16.7 |
|
16.9 |
|
17.2 |
|
0.3 |
Commerce, Justice, State, and the
Judiciary |
39.7 |
|
40.5 |
|
41.2 |
|
0.7 |
Defense |
296.6 |
|
320.5 |
|
360.4 |
|
40.0 |
District of Columbia |
0.5 |
|
0.4 |
|
0.4 |
|
* |
Energy and Water Development |
24.4 |
|
24.8 |
|
25.3 |
|
0.5 |
Foreign Operations |
14.6 |
|
15.5 |
|
16.1 |
|
0.7 |
Interior and Related Agencies |
19.5 |
|
19.6 |
|
19.5 |
|
-0.1 |
Labor, Health and Human Services,
and Education |
110.5 |
|
124.6 |
|
131.2 |
|
6.6 |
Legislative |
2.8 |
|
3.1 |
|
3.5 |
|
0.4 |
Military Construction |
9.1 |
|
10.5 |
|
9.0 |
|
-1.6 |
Transportation and Related
Agencies |
17.8 |
|
16.4 |
|
19.7 |
|
3.3 |
Treasury and General Government |
16.7 |
|
17.9 |
|
18.7 |
|
0.9 |
Veterans Affairs, Housing and Urban
Development |
81.7 |
|
85.8 |
|
93.5 |
|
7.7 |
Allowances |
— |
|
— |
|
-0.4 |
|
-0.4 |
Total with full funding
of federal employee retirement costs |
650.7 |
|
696.5 |
|
755.4 |
|
59.0 |
Remove full funding of federal employee
retirement costs |
-8.1 |
|
-8.5 |
|
-9.0 |
|
-0.4 |
Total |
642.6 |
|
687.9 |
1 |
746.5 |
|
58.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Emergency Response Fund |
20.0 |
|
20.0 |
|
10.0 |
|
-10.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*$50 million or
less |
1 Includes a $1.7 billion upward adjustment,
from the 2002 appropriated level, for discretionary spending offset by
mandatory savings enacted in appropriations bills. |
Table S–9. Mandatory
Proposals (In millions of dollars)
|
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
Total |
2003–2007 |
2003–2012 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Strengthening
Medicare |
— |
1,680 |
3,375 |
5,068 |
17,485 |
22,497 |
50,105 |
190,159 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Farm Bill 1 |
4,200 |
7,271 |
7,019 |
6,688 |
6,727 |
6,774 |
34,479 |
67,576 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bipartisan Economic
Security Plan 2 |
27,000 |
8,000 |
1,500 |
— |
— |
— |
9,500 |
9,500 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Medicaid/SCHIP: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Medicaid/SCHIP reform |
— |
348 |
125 |
309 |
144 |
161 |
1,087 |
1,781 |
Rationalizing
prescription drug payments |
— |
-290 |
-650 |
-1,090 |
-1,620 |
-1,800 |
-5,450 |
-17,640 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Welfare reform: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TANF reauthorization |
— |
46 |
314 |
270 |
340 |
387 |
1,358 |
3,069 |
Food Stamps
reauthorization |
— |
29 |
148 |
262 |
329 |
355 |
1,123 |
4,191 |
Child support
enforcement: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Federal
collections and payments to States |
— |
-66 |
-53 |
60 |
116 |
119 |
176 |
798 |
Food
Stamps savings |
— |
— |
— |
-37 |
-47 |
-49 |
-133 |
-402 |
Medicaid
savings |
— |
— |
— |
-5 |
-15 |
-20 |
-40 |
-210 |
Subtotal,
child support enforcement |
— |
-66 |
-53 |
18 |
54 |
50 |
3 |
186 |
Supplemental
Security Income |
— |
— |
-2 |
-7 |
-13 |
-19 |
-41 |
-262 |
Medicaid
savings |
— |
— |
-3 |
-11 |
-25 |
-43 |
-82 |
-641 |
Subtotal,
SSI |
— |
— |
-5 |
-18 |
-38 |
-62 |
-123 |
-903 |
Subtotal,
excluding Food Stamps reauthorization |
— |
-20 |
256 |
270 |
356 |
375 |
1,238 |
2,352 |
Total,
welfare reform |
— |
9 |
404 |
532 |
685 |
730 |
2,361 |
6,543 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Other Proposals: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Agriculture: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Increase
timber competition (use of sealed bids) |
— |
— |
-5 |
-10 |
-14 |
-15 |
-44 |
-139 |
Non-timber
interests bidding |
— |
— |
-5 |
-5 |
-10 |
-10 |
-30 |
-80 |
Collect
fair market value from ski resorts |
— |
— |
-3 |
-10 |
-14 |
-15 |
-42 |
-117 |
Accelerate
repayment to reforestation trust fund and payments from special use
permits to enhance environmental protection for lands used by ski
resorts |
— |
— |
13 |
25 |
38 |
40 |
116 |
336 |
Provide
permanent recreation fee authority |
— |
— |
— |
-10 |
1 |
1 |
-8 |
-3 |
Education: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Teacher
loan forgiveness |
— |
45 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
112 |
211 |
Energy: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Power
marketing associations to directly fund Corps of Engineers' operations and
maintenance expenses |
— |
149 |
149 |
150 |
150 |
150 |
748 |
1,498 |
Increase
BPA's borrowing authority |
— |
— |
113 |
498 |
89 |
— |
700 |
700 |
ANWR,
lease bonuses |
— |
— |
-1,200 |
— |
— |
— |
-1,200 |
-1,200 |
Health and Human
Services: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Abstinence
education |
— |
14 |
37 |
42 |
47 |
50 |
190 |
440 |
Interior: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ANWR,
lease bonuses: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
State
of Alaska's share: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Receipts |
— |
— |
-1,201 |
-1 |
-101 |
-1 |
-1,304 |
-1,587 |
Expenditure |
— |
— |
1,201 |
1 |
101 |
1 |
1,304 |
1,587 |
Federal
share |
— |
— |
-1 |
-1 |
-101 |
-1 |
-104 |
-387 |
Provide
permanent recreation fee authority |
— |
— |
— |
-17 |
7 |
48 |
38 |
490 |
Correct
trust accounting deficiencies in individual Indian money investments |
— |
7 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
7 |
7 |
Labor: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reform
Unemployment Insurance |
— |
— |
— |
319 |
1,929 |
3,072 |
5,320 |
21,812 |
Refinance
Black Lung Disability Trust Fund debt: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Black
Lung Disability Trust Fund |
— |
1,606 |
-446 |
-435 |
-430 |
-427 |
-132 |
-2,184 |
Treasury's
interest receipts |
— |
-1,606 |
446 |
435 |
430 |
427 |
132 |
2,184 |
Propose
reforms of FECA for future beneficiaries |
— |
-3 |
-4 |
-6 |
-5 |
-5 |
-23 |
-46 |
Redirect
H-1B training |
— |
80 |
-15 |
-48 |
-17 |
— |
— |
— |
Treasury: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Outlay
effect of refundable tax credits |
— |
832 |
5,634 |
6,991 |
7,535 |
7,654 |
28,646 |
74,300 |
Veterans Affairs: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
IRS
income verification on means tested veterans and survivors benefits |
— |
— |
-6 |
-6 |
-6 |
-6 |
-24 |
-54 |
Army Corps of
Engineers: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Recreation
user fee increase |
— |
-6 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
4 |
-5 |
15 |
FCC: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Shift
spectrum auction deadlines: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Spectrum
receipts |
— |
4,000 |
-3,300 |
-2,700 |
-4,700 |
— |
-6,700 |
-6,700 |
Spectrum
relocation |
— |
50 |
-50 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Impose
annual analog fees after 2006 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
-500 |
-500 |
-2,680 |
FEMA: Reform National
Flood Insurance |
— |
-43 |
-75 |
-115 |
-165 |
-227 |
-625 |
-2,080 |
OPM: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Simplify
computation of annuities under the CSRS for individuals with part-time
service |
— |
3 |
8 |
14 |
20 |
27 |
72 |
313 |
Multi-Agency: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Authorize
spending of reimbursements for spectrum relocating costs |
— |
100 |
50 |
100 |
165 |
100 |
515 |
715 |
Indirect impact of other
proposals (third scorecard): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Enact
FECA surcharge |
— |
— |
-1 |
-5 |
-7 |
-7 |
-20 |
-50 |
Impact
of accrual accounting |
— |
-34 |
-23 |
198 |
420 |
618 |
1,179 |
7,686 |
Total, mandatory
proposals |
31,200 |
22,213 |
13,102 |
16,927 |
28,800 |
39,358 |
120,400 |
352,906 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
Excludes Food Stamps reauthorization of $4,191 million over 10 years
shown under the welfare reform and the receipt effect of FFARRM account
tax incentives of $1,233 million over 10 years shown in Table S–10. |
2
Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the outlay effect is shown here.
The receipt effect is -$62,000 million for 2002, -$65,000 million for
2003, -$47,000 million for 2004, -$9,500 million for 2005, $17,000 million
for 2006, $18,000 million for 2007, -$87,000 million for 2003–2007, and
-$43,500 million for 2003–2012. |
Table S–10. Effect of
Proposals on Receipts (In millions of dollars)
|
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
Total |
2003–2007 |
2003–2012 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bipartisan
Economic Security Plan 1 |
-62,000 |
-65,000 |
-47,500 |
-9,500 |
17,000 |
18,000 |
-87,000 |
-43,500 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tax
Incentives: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Provide incentives for
charitable giving: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Provide
charitable contribution deduction for nonitemizers |
-570 |
-1,429 |
-1,437 |
-2,288 |
-3,567 |
-3,591 |
-12,312 |
-32,636 |
Permit
tax-free withdrawals from IRAs for charitable contributions |
-93 |
-192 |
-205 |
-219 |
-230 |
-238 |
-1,084 |
-2,632 |
Raise
the cap on corporate charitable contributions |
-24 |
-169 |
-121 |
-127 |
-139 |
-156 |
-712 |
-1,730 |
Expand
and increase the enhanced charitable deduction for contributions of food
inventory |
-10 |
-49 |
-54 |
-59 |
-66 |
-72 |
-300 |
-789 |
Reform
excise tax based on investment income of private foundations |
-122 |
-177 |
-181 |
-189 |
-198 |
-205 |
-950 |
-2,101 |
Modify
tax on unrelated business taxable income of charitable remainder trusts |
-1 |
-3 |
-3 |
-4 |
-4 |
-4 |
-18 |
-48 |
Modify
basis adjustment to stock of S corporations contributing appreciated
property |
-8 |
-11 |
-13 |
-17 |
-21 |
-25 |
-87 |
-282 |
Allow
expedited consideration of applications for exempt status 2 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Strengthen and reform
education: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Provide
refundable tax credit for certain costs of attending a different school
for pupils assigned to failing public schools
3 |
— |
-10 |
-24 |
-38 |
-52 |
-62 |
-186 |
-219 |
Allow
teachers to deduct out-of-pocket classroom expenses |
— |
— |
-16 |
-163 |
-191 |
-207 |
-577 |
-1,718 |
Invest in health care: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Provide
refundable tax credit for the purchase of health insurance 4 |
— |
-245 |
-1,689 |
-2,811 |
-2,774 |
-2,951 |
-10,470 |
-29,116 |
Provide
an above-the-line deduction for long-term care insurance premiums |
— |
-328 |
-406 |
-605 |
-1,222 |
-2,158 |
-4,719 |
-20,730 |
Allow
up to $500 in unused benefits in a health flexible spending arrangement to
be carried forward to the next year |
— |
— |
-441 |
-723 |
-782 |
-830 |
-2,776 |
-7,819 |
Provide
additional choice with regard to unused benefits in a health flexible
spending arrangement |
— |
— |
-23 |
-39 |
-45 |
-52 |
-159 |
-566 |
Permanently
extend and reform Archer MSAs |
— |
— |
-43 |
-468 |
-530 |
-607 |
-1,648 |
-5,691 |
Provide
an additional personal exemption to home caretakers of family members |
— |
-314 |
-383 |
-362 |
-345 |
-348 |
-1,752 |
-3,957 |
Assist Americans with
disabilities: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Exclude
from income the value of employer-provided computers, software and
peripherals |
— |
— |
-2 |
-6 |
-6 |
-6 |
-20 |
-52 |
Help farmers and fishermen
manage economic downturns: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Establish
FFARRM savings accounts |
— |
— |
-133 |
-350 |
-244 |
-171 |
-898 |
-1,233 |
Increase housing
opportunities: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Provide
tax credit for developers of affordable single-family housing |
— |
-7 |
-76 |
-302 |
-715 |
-1,252 |
-2,352 |
-15,257 |
Encourage saving: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Establish
Individual Development Accounts (IDAs) |
— |
-124 |
-267 |
-319 |
-300 |
-255 |
-1,265 |
-1,722 |
Protect
the environment: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Permanently extend expensing of brownfields remediation costs |
— |
— |
-193 |
-306 |
-299 |
-289 |
-1,087 |
-2,390 |
Exclude 50
percent of gains from the sale of property for conservation purposes |
— |
-2 |
-44 |
-90 |
-94 |
-98 |
-328 |
-918 |
Increase
energy production and promote energy conservation: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Extend and
modify tax credit for producing electricity from certain sources |
-92 |
-227 |
-303 |
-212 |
-143 |
-146 |
-1,031 |
-1,779 |
Provide
tax credit for residential solar energy systems |
-3 |
-6 |
-7 |
-8 |
-17 |
-24 |
-62 |
-72 |
Modify
treatment of nuclear decommissioning funds |
-89 |
-156 |
-168 |
-178 |
-188 |
-199 |
-889 |
-2,042 |
Provide
tax credit for purchase of certain hybrid and fuel cell vehicles |
-21 |
-80 |
-181 |
-349 |
-530 |
-763 |
-1,903 |
-3,027 |
Provide
tax credit for energy produced from landfill gas |
-12 |
-34 |
-59 |
-86 |
-120 |
-140 |
-439 |
-1,130 |
Provide
tax credit for combined heat and power property |
-97 |
-208 |
-235 |
-238 |
-296 |
-139 |
-1,116 |
-1,091 |
Provide
excise tax exemption (credit) for ethanol
2 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Promote
trade: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Extend and
expand Andean trade preferences 5 |
-130 |
-192 |
-213 |
-226 |
-58 |
— |
-689 |
-689 |
Initiate a
new trade preference program for Southeast Europe 5 |
— |
-19 |
-23 |
-25 |
-7 |
— |
-74 |
-74 |
Implement
free trade agreements with Chile and Singapore
5 |
— |
-21 |
-86 |
-109 |
-131 |
-155 |
-502 |
-1,560 |
Improve
tax administration: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Implement
IRS administrative reforms |
— |
60 |
49 |
50 |
52 |
54 |
265 |
559 |
Reform
unemployment insurance: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reform
unemployment insurance administrative financing
5 |
— |
-1,002 |
-1,451 |
-2,902 |
-2,982 |
-4,429 |
-12,766 |
-6,924 |
Expiring
Provisions: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Extend
provisions that expired in 2001 for two years: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Work
opportunity tax credit |
-43 |
-153 |
-200 |
-127 |
-60 |
-29 |
-569 |
-576 |
Welfare-to-work tax credit |
-9 |
-37 |
-57 |
-48 |
-32 |
-22 |
-196 |
-209 |
Minimum
tax relief for individuals |
-122 |
-353 |
-256 |
— |
— |
— |
-609 |
-609 |
Exceptions
provided under subpart F for certain active financing income |
-864 |
-1,502 |
-630 |
— |
— |
— |
-2,132 |
-2,132 |
Suspension
of net income limitation on percentage depletion from marginal oil and gas
wells |
-25 |
-44 |
-18 |
— |
— |
— |
-62 |
-62 |
Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) 5 |
-370 |
-415 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
-415 |
-415 |
Authority
to issue qualified zone academy bonds |
-4 |
-13 |
-25 |
-35 |
-37 |
-37 |
-147 |
-332 |
Permanently extend expiring provisions: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Provisions
expiring in 2010: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Marginal individual income tax rate reductions |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
-183,769 |
Child tax credit 6 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
-31,697 |
Marriage penalty relief 7 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
-12,976 |
Education incentives |
-1 |
-5 |
-10 |
-15 |
-20 |
-26 |
-76 |
-2,810 |
Repeal of estate and generation-skipping transfer taxes, and modification
of gift taxes |
178 |
-550 |
-1,097 |
-1,485 |
-1,987 |
-2,178 |
-7,297 |
-103,659 |
Modifications of IRAs and pension plans |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
-6,490 |
Other incentives for families and children |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
-1,298 |
Research
& Experimentation (R&E) tax credit |
— |
— |
-906 |
-2,949 |
-4,654 |
-5,623 |
-14,132 |
-51,051 |
Total budget
proposals |
-64,532 |
-73,017 |
-59,130 |
-27,927 |
-6,034 |
-9,433 |
-175,541 |
-591,020 |
1 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the
receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $27,000 million for
2002, $8,000 million for 2003, $1,500 million for 2004, $9,500 million for
2003-2007, and $9,500 million for 2003-2012. |
2 Policy proposal with a receipt effect of
zero. |
3 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the
receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $165 million for 2003,
$449 million for 2004, $699 million for 2005, $975 million for 2006,
$1,213 million for 2007, $3,501 million for 2003-2007, and $4,155 million
for 2003-2012. |
4 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the
receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $677 million for 2003,
$5,185 million for 2004, $6,292 million for 2005, $6,560 million for 2006,
$6,441 million for 2007, $25,145 million for 2003-2007, and $59,873
million for 2003-2012. |
5 Net of income offsets. |
6 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the
receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $8,745 million for
2003-2012. |
7 Affects both receipts and outlays. Only the
receipt effect is shown here. The outlay effect is $1,527 million for
2003-2012. |
Table S–11. Receipts by
Source—Summary (In billions of dollars)
Source |
2001
Actual |
Estimates |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
Individual income taxes |
994.3 |
949.2 |
1,006.4 |
1,058.6 |
1,112.0 |
1,157.3 |
1,221.7 |
Corporation income taxes |
151.1 |
201.4 |
205.5 |
212.0 |
237.1 |
241.4 |
250.6 |
Social insurance and retirement
receipts |
694.0 |
708.0 |
749.2 |
789.8 |
835.2 |
868.7 |
908.3 |
On-budget |
(186.4) |
(190.8) |
(203.9) |
(216.3) |
(227.0) |
(235.1) |
(243.0) |
Off-budget |
(507.5) |
(517.2) |
(545.3) |
(573.5) |
(608.2) |
(633.7) |
(665.3) |
Excise taxes |
66.1 |
66.9 |
69.0 |
71.2 |
73.6 |
75.3 |
77.5 |
Estate and gift taxes |
28.4 |
27.5 |
23.0 |
26.6 |
23.4 |
26.4 |
23.2 |
Customs duties |
19.4 |
18.7 |
19.8 |
21.9 |
23.0 |
24.7 |
26.2 |
Miscellaneous receipts |
37.8 |
36.4 |
40.2 |
42.8 |
43.2 |
44.4 |
46.2 |
Bipartisan economic security
plan |
— |
–62.0 |
–65.0 |
–47.5 |
–9.5 |
17.0 |
18.0 |
Total receipts |
1,991.0 |
1,946.1 |
2,048.1 |
2,175.4 |
2,338.0 |
2,455.3 |
2,571.7 |
On-budget |
(1,483.5) |
(1,428.9) |
(1,502.7) |
(1,601.9) |
(1,729.8) |
(1,821.6) |
(1,906.4) |
Off-budget |
(507.5) |
(517.2) |
(545.3) |
(573.5) |
(608.2) |
(633.7) |
(665.3) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table S–12. Budget
Authority Totals by Function (In billions of
dollars)
Function |
2001 Actual |
Estimates |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
National defense |
329.0 |
350.7 |
396.8 |
405.6 |
426.6 |
447.7 |
469.8 |
International affairs |
18.7 |
22.3 |
23.9 |
24.8 |
25.6 |
26.3 |
27.2 |
General science, space, and
technology |
21.1 |
22.2 |
22.7 |
23.3 |
23.8 |
24.4 |
25.0 |
Energy |
0.2 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
Natural resources and
environment |
29.8 |
30.9 |
30.0 |
31.3 |
32.3 |
31.7 |
32.3 |
Agriculture |
29.2 |
29.0 |
23.8 |
23.0 |
21.3 |
20.4 |
20.3 |
Commerce and housing credit |
12.4 |
10.7 |
14.1 |
9.8 |
9.4 |
8.5 |
10.7 |
On-budget |
(8.4) |
(7.8) |
(8.9) |
(9.4) |
(8.9) |
(8.1) |
(9.5) |
Off-budget |
(4.1) |
(2.8) |
(5.2) |
(0.4) |
(0.5) |
(0.4) |
(1.2) |
Transportation |
67.6 |
66.1 |
63.7 |
58.4 |
64.6 |
65.9 |
67.2 |
Community and regional
development |
13.9 |
18.5 |
14.7 |
15.4 |
15.5 |
15.9 |
16.2 |
Education, training, employment,
and social services |
63.7 |
79.6 |
80.9 |
81.8 |
84.0 |
85.9 |
87.9 |
Health |
182.1 |
201.0 |
234.3 |
259.0 |
278.4 |
298.0 |
319.9 |
Medicare |
217.2 |
230.3 |
234.5 |
244.1 |
261.4 |
282.0 |
305.5 |
Income security |
273.4 |
306.2 |
319.3 |
326.6 |
336.3 |
347.5 |
356.7 |
Social Security |
440.5 |
461.3 |
476.9 |
497.6 |
521.8 |
548.5 |
577.8 |
On-budget |
(11.7) |
(13.9) |
(14.3) |
(15.2) |
(16.1) |
(16.9) |
(18.0) |
Off-budget |
(428.8) |
(447.4) |
(462.6) |
(482.5) |
(505.8) |
(531.6) |
(559.8) |
Veterans benefits and services |
48.4 |
51.8 |
56.6 |
58.8 |
60.9 |
63.1 |
65.2 |
Administration of justice |
45.0 |
37.3 |
38.2 |
41.0 |
38.9 |
39.8 |
40.7 |
General government |
16.6 |
17.7 |
17.8 |
19.5 |
18.7 |
19.2 |
19.4 |
Net interest |
206.2 |
178.4 |
180.7 |
188.8 |
190.2 |
188.3 |
185.3 |
On-budget |
(275.0) |
(255.2) |
(264.5) |
(280.9) |
(291.2) |
(299.3) |
(307.4) |
Off-budget |
(-68.8) |
(-76.8) |
(-83.8) |
(-92.0) |
(-101.0) |
(-111.0) |
(-122.1) |
Allowances |
— |
25.7 |
7.6 |
1.1 |
–0.4 |
–0.4 |
–0.4 |
Undistributed offsetting
receipts |
–55.2 |
–55.2 |
–74.1 |
–100.2 |
–100.4 |
–98.6 |
–98.4 |
On-budget |
(-47.3) |
(-45.9) |
(-64.6) |
(-89.9) |
(-89.4) |
(-86.8) |
(-86.0) |
Off-budget |
(-7.9) |
(-9.2) |
(-9.6) |
(-10.2) |
(-11.0) |
(-11.7) |
(-12.4) |
Total |
1,959.7 |
2,085.0 |
2,162.9 |
2,210.2 |
2,309.7 |
2,414.7 |
2,529.0 |
On-budget |
(1,603.6) |
(1,720.9) |
(1,788.5) |
(1,829.6) |
(1,915.5) |
(2,005.4) |
(2,102.6) |
Off-budget |
(356.2) |
(364.2) |
(374.4) |
(380.6) |
(394.2) |
(409.3) |
(426.4) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table S–13. Outlay
Totals by Function (In billions of dollars)
Function |
2001
Actual |
Estimates |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
National defense |
308.5 |
348.0 |
379.0 |
393.8 |
413.5 |
428.5 |
442.5 |
International affairs |
16.6 |
23.5 |
22.5 |
22.8 |
23.3 |
23.9 |
24.6 |
General science, space, and
technology |
19.9 |
21.8 |
22.2 |
22.8 |
23.5 |
24.0 |
24.6 |
Energy |
0.1 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
Natural resources and
environment |
26.3 |
30.2 |
30.6 |
31.1 |
31.7 |
32.4 |
32.8 |
Agriculture |
26.6 |
28.8 |
24.2 |
22.8 |
21.3 |
20.4 |
20.3 |
Commerce and housing credit |
6.0 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
5.1 |
3.1 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
On-budget |
(3.7) |
(1.7) |
(5.1) |
(4.4) |
(3.3) |
(2.1) |
(2.5) |
Off-budget |
(2.3) |
(2.0) |
(-1.4) |
(0.7) |
(-0.2) |
(-0.9) |
(-0.8) |
Transportation |
55.2 |
62.1 |
59.4 |
56.3 |
56.0 |
56.9 |
58.6 |
Community and regional
development |
12.0 |
15.4 |
17.4 |
18.0 |
17.4 |
15.6 |
15.4 |
Education, training, employment,
and social services |
57.3 |
71.7 |
79.0 |
81.0 |
82.7 |
84.2 |
86.1 |
Health |
172.6 |
195.2 |
231.9 |
258.8 |
277.8 |
297.0 |
318.3 |
Medicare |
217.5 |
226.4 |
234.4 |
244.3 |
261.3 |
281.8 |
305.8 |
Income security |
269.8 |
310.7 |
319.7 |
325.0 |
334.3 |
345.2 |
352.7 |
Social Security |
433.1 |
459.7 |
475.9 |
495.7 |
519.7 |
546.2 |
575.3 |
On-budget |
(11.7) |
(13.9) |
(14.3) |
(15.2) |
(16.1) |
(16.9) |
(18.0) |
Off-budget |
(421.4) |
(445.7) |
(461.6) |
(480.5) |
(503.6) |
(529.3) |
(557.3) |
Veterans benefits and services |
45.8 |
51.5 |
56.6 |
58.6 |
63.2 |
62.9 |
62.3 |
Administration of justice |
30.4 |
34.4 |
40.6 |
43.5 |
39.5 |
39.7 |
40.4 |
General government |
15.2 |
18.3 |
17.6 |
19.6 |
18.6 |
19.0 |
19.2 |
Net interest |
206.2 |
178.4 |
180.7 |
188.8 |
190.2 |
188.3 |
185.3 |
On-budget |
(275.0) |
(255.2) |
(264.5) |
(280.9) |
(291.2) |
(299.3) |
(307.4) |
Off-budget |
(-68.8) |
(-76.8) |
(-83.8) |
(-92.0) |
(-101.0) |
(-111.0) |
(-122.1) |
Allowances |
— |
27.0 |
6.4 |
0.8 |
–0.5 |
–0.3 |
–0.4 |
Undistributed offsetting
receipts |
–55.2 |
–55.2 |
–74.1 |
–100.2 |
–100.4 |
–98.6 |
–98.4 |
On-budget |
(-47.3) |
(-45.9) |
(-64.6) |
(-89.9) |
(-89.4) |
(-86.8) |
(-86.0) |
Off-budget |
(-7.9) |
(-9.2) |
(-9.6) |
(-10.2) |
(-11.0) |
(-11.7) |
(-12.4) |
Total |
1,863.9 |
2,052.3 |
2,128.2 |
2,189.1 |
2,276.9 |
2,369.1 |
2,467.7 |
On-budget |
(1,516.9) |
(1,690.6) |
(1,761.5) |
(1,810.1) |
(1,885.5) |
(1,963.4) |
(2,045.8) |
Off-budget |
(347.0) |
(361.7) |
(366.8) |
(379.0) |
(391.4) |
(405.7) |
(421.9) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table S–14. Comparison
of Economic Assumptions (Calendar years)
|
Projections |
Average |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2002–2012 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Real GDP (billions of 1996
dollars): |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CBO January |
9,398 |
9,782 |
10,146 |
10,471 |
10,804 |
11,145 |
11,493 |
11,850 |
12,216 |
12,590 |
12,972 |
|
Blue Chip
Consensus January 2 |
9,410 |
9,742 |
10,069 |
10,401 |
10,738 |
11,075 |
11,425 |
11,791 |
12,168 |
12,557 |
12,959 |
|
2003 Budget |
9,382 |
9,739 |
10,101 |
10,462 |
10,802 |
11,136 |
11,482 |
11,838 |
12,204 |
12,583 |
12,973 |
|
Real GDP
(chain-weighted): 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CBO January |
0.8 |
4.1 |
3.7 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
Blue Chip
Consensus January 2 |
1.0 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.3 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
2003 Budget |
0.7 |
3.8 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
Chain-weighted GDP Price
Index: 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CBO January |
1.4 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
Blue Chip
Consensus January 2 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2003 Budget |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
Consumer Price Index
(all-urban): 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CBO January |
1.8 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
Blue Chip
Consensus January 2 |
1.7 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2003 Budget |
1.8 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
Unemployment rate: 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CBO January |
6.1 |
5.9 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.4 |
Blue Chip
Consensus January 2 |
6.1 |
5.7 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
5.1 |
2003 Budget |
5.9 |
5.5 |
5.2 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
5.1 |
Interest Rates: 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
91-day
Treasury bills: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CBO
January |
2.2 |
4.5 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
4.6 |
Blue Chip
Consensus January 2 |
2.1 |
3.4 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.3 |
2003
Budget |
2.2 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.3 |
4.0 |
10-year
Treasury notes: 3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CBO
January |
5.0 |
5.5 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.7 |
Blue Chip
Consensus January 2 |
5.1 |
5.6 |
5.7 |
5.7 |
5.7 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.8 |
5.7 |
2003
Budget |
5.1 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
5.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: Congressional
Budget Office; Aspen Publishers, Inc., Blue Chip Economic
Indicators. |
1 Year over year percent change. |
2 January 2002 Blue Chip Consensus forecast for
2002 and 2003; Blue Chip October 2001 long run extension for
2004–2012. |
3 Annual averages,
percent. |
Table S–15. Baseline
Category Totals (In billions of dollars)
|
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
Total 2003–2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Outlays: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Discretionary:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Defense |
336 |
347 |
359 |
371 |
377 |
383 |
1,836 |
Non-defense |
382 |
402 |
413 |
420 |
429 |
439 |
2,103 |
Subtotal,
discretionary |
718 |
749 |
772 |
791 |
806 |
822 |
3,939 |
Emergency
Response Fund |
22 |
9 |
5 |
2 |
1 |
* |
17 |
Mandatory: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Social
Security |
456 |
472 |
491 |
515 |
542 |
571 |
2,591 |
Medicare |
223 |
229 |
237 |
252 |
260 |
279 |
1,258 |
Medicaid |
145 |
159 |
171 |
185 |
202 |
219 |
936 |
Other
mandatory |
279 |
277 |
272 |
278 |
290 |
294 |
1,412 |
Subtotal,
mandatory |
1,102 |
1,136 |
1,172 |
1,231 |
1,294 |
1,363 |
6,197 |
Net interest |
177 |
175 |
177 |
172 |
165 |
156 |
846 |
Total Outlays |
2,020 |
2,070 |
2,126 |
2,197 |
2,266 |
2,341 |
11,000 |
Receipts |
2,011 |
2,121 |
2,234 |
2,366 |
2,461 |
2,581 |
11,764 |
Unified Surplus |
-9 |
51 |
109 |
169 |
196 |
240 |
764 |
On-budget
surplus |
-165 |
-127 |
-86 |
-48 |
-33 |
-4 |
-298 |
Off-budget
surplus |
155 |
179 |
195 |
217 |
228 |
244 |
1,063 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* $500 million or
less |
Table S–16. Budget Surplus Reestimates (In billions of dollars)
|
2002 |
2003 |
Total 2002–2011 |
|
|
|
|
April pre-policy baseline |
283 |
334 |
5,637 |
|
|
|
|
Economic downturn |
-197 |
-138 |
-1,345 |
|
|
|
|
Enacted policy: |
|
|
|
Tax
relief |
-40 |
-94 |
-1,478 |
Other
enacted legislation |
-54 |
-51 |
-591 |
|
|
|
|
Current baseline |
-9 |
51 |
2,222 |
|
|
|
|
Budget proposals |
-7 |
-54 |
-1,325 |
|
|
|
|
Budget outlook, pre-economic security plan |
-16 |
-3 |
896 |
|
|
|
|
Bipartisan economic security
plan |
-90 |
-77 |
-231 |
|
|
|
|
Budget outlook, including economic security
plan |
-106 |
-80 |
665 |
|
|
|
|
Table S–17. Federal
Government Financing and Debt (In billions of
dollars)
|
Actual
2001 |
Estimate |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Financing: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Unified budget surplus (+)/
deficit (-) |
127 |
-106 |
-80 |
-14 |
61 |
86 |
104 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Financing other than the
change in debt held by the public: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Premiums paid (-) on buybacks of Treasury securities 1 |
-11 |
-3 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Net
purchases (-) of non-Federal securities by the National Railroad
Retirement Investment Trust |
— |
-15 |
-1 |
-* |
* |
* |
* |
Changes in: 2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Treasury operating cash balance |
8 |
-16 |
— |
-5 |
— |
— |
-5 |
Checks outstanding, deposit funds, etc.
3 |
-13 |
-1 |
-* |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Seigniorage on coins |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Less:
Net financing disbursements: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Direct loan financing accounts |
-19 |
-15 |
-15 |
-15 |
-15 |
-15 |
-15 |
Guaranteed loan financing accounts |
-4 |
-2 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
5 |
Total, financing other than the change in debt held by the public |
-37 |
-51 |
-13 |
-16 |
-9 |
-9 |
-13 |
Total, amount available to repay debt held by the public |
90 |
-157 |
-93 |
-29 |
52 |
78 |
91 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Change in debt held by the
public |
-90 |
157 |
93 |
29 |
-52 |
-78 |
-91 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Debt Subject to Statutory Limitation, End
of Year: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Debt issued by Treasury |
5,743 |
6,110 |
6,499 |
6,867 |
7,182 |
7,482 |
7,780 |
Adjustment for Treasury debt
not subject to limitation and agency debt subject to limitation 4 |
-15 |
-15 |
-15 |
-15 |
-15 |
-15 |
-15 |
Adjustment for discount and
premium 5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
Total,
debt subject to statutory limitation 6 |
5,733 |
6,099 |
6,489 |
6,856 |
7,172 |
7,472 |
7,770 |
Debt Outstanding, End of
Year: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Federal debt 7: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Debt
issued by Treasury |
5,743 |
6,110 |
6,499 |
6,867 |
7,182 |
7,482 |
7,780 |
Debt
issued by other agencies |
27 |
27 |
26 |
26 |
25 |
24 |
23 |
Total, gross Federal debt |
5,770 |
6,137 |
6,526 |
6,892 |
7,207 |
7,506 |
7,803 |
Held by: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Debt
securities held by Government accounts |
2,450 |
2,660 |
2,956 |
3,293 |
3,659 |
4,036 |
4,424 |
Debt
securities held by the public 8 |
3,320 |
3,477 |
3,570 |
3,600 |
3,548 |
3,470 |
3,379 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* $500 million or less |
1Includes only premiums paid on buybacks
through December 2001. Estimates are not made for subsequent
buybacks. |
2A
decrease in the Treasury operating cash balance (which is an asset) would
be a means of financing a deficit and therefore has a positive sign. An
increase in checks outstanding or deposit fund balances (which are
liabilities) would also be a means of financing a deficit and therefore
would also have a positive sign. |
3Besides checks outstanding and deposit funds,
includes accrued interest payable on Treasury debt, miscellaneous
liability accounts, allocations of special drawing rights, and, as an
offset, cash and monetary assets other than the Treasury operating cash
balance, miscellaneous asset accounts, and profit on sale of gold. |
4Consists primarily of Federal Financing Bank
debt. |
5Consists of unamortized discount (less
premium) on public issues of Treasury notes and bonds (other than
zero-coupon bonds) and unrealized discount on Government account series
securities. |
6The
statutory debt limit is $5,950 billion. |
7Treasury securities held by the public and
zero-coupon bonds held by government accounts are almost all measured at
sales price plus amortized discount or less amortized premium. Agency debt
securities are almost all measured at face value. Treasury securities in
the government account series are measured at face value less unrealized
discount (if any). |
8At the
end of 2001, the Federal Reserve Banks held $534.1 billion of federal
securities and the rest of the public held $2,785.9 billion. Debt held by
the Federal Reserve Banks is not estimated for future
years. |
|