000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250302
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE AUG 25 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
IGNACIO. IGNACIO WAS CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 117.8W OR ABOUT 570
NM...1055 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AT 25/0300 UTC...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT AND THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1004 MB. SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING ORGANIZATION IN THE CLOUD
PATTERN. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT WITH
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE POINT 16N118W.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE -85C WITHIN THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
WITH THE EASTERLY SHEAR DECREASING OVER THE CENTER. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AND
IS ALONG 80W/81W NORTH OF 05N AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WITH NO
CONVECTION OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR THE WAVE.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG...09N83W TO 07N95W
TO 07N105W THEN CONTINUE FROM 13N120W TO 10N130W TO 09N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75
NM OF THE POINT 06N88.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 10N136W.
...DISCUSSION...
A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA CENTERED NEAR 28N141W AND THE ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION
EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. A SMALL AREA OF
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS NORTH OF 26N WEST OF 137W. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS THEN GET
QUICKLY ABSORBED BY A VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF LINE THROUGH 32N108W TO
25N115W TO 18N125W AND EAST OF 125W. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD
FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS
IN THIS AREA WEST OF 120W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.
BETWEEN THE TWO ABOVE TROUGHS A RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS
WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS NORTH OF 27N AND BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS SOUTH OF 27N IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
A LARGE TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOST OF
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS EAST OF 105W AND EXTENDS EAST TO
A LINE FROM 10N105W TO NEAR 25N95W. THE AREA IS MOSTLY DRY AND
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. SOME CONVECTION IS
OVER COASTAL MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING.
BETWEEN THE SECOND AND THIRD TROUGHS A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC AREA
IS OBSERVED. THIS THE AREA OVER TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO. THE AREA
IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED
AREAS OF CONVECTION.
EAST OF THE THIRD TROUGH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED.
WIDESPREAD MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION
ARE OBSERVED.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO 15N140W. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE TROPICAL STORM A
BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.
$$
LL
000
WTPA35 PHFO 250248
TCPCP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 PM HST MON AUG 24 2009
...HILDA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT INTENSIFICATION STILL EXPECTED...
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 147.1 WEST OR ABOUT
625 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 835 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.
HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION AND SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.9N 147.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
000
WTPA25 PHFO 250246
TCMCP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 147.1W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 65NE 40SE 40SW 65NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 147.1W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 146.6W
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.0N 148.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.9N 149.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.8N 151.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.5N 152.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.3N 154.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 95NE 75SE 75SW 95NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 15.1N 157.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 16.6N 161.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 147.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
000
WTPZ22 KNHC 250233
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 117.8W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 45SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 117.8W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 117.3W
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.4N 119.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.1N 120.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.2N 122.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.8N 124.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.0N 127.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 15SW 45NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 26.5N 131.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 27.5N 134.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 117.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 250233
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2009
...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE EAST PACIFIC
SEASON...
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST OR ABOUT 655
MILES...1055 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
IGNACIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE IGNACIO REACHES COOLER
WATERS IN A DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.0N 117.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
ACPN50 PHFO 250145
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST MON AUG 24 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HILDA...LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. HILDA IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10
MPH. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HILDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTPA25 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP5.
2. POORLY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITHIN A NEARLY
STATIONARY...WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE
TROUGH LOCATED OVER 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
$$
WROE
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 250045 CCA
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT LUNES 24 DE AGOSTO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO
AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS PERMANECEN DESORGANIZADOS ASOCIADOS A UNA ONDA
TROPICAL QUE INTERACTUA CON UNA BAJA PRESION EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS DE
LA ATMOSFERA A UNAS 300 MILLAS AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE
SOTAVENTO.
EL VIENTO EN LOS ALTOS NIVELES PUEDE TORNARSE MAS FAVORABLE PARA UN
LENTO DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A MEDIDA
QUE SE MUEVE AL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 25 MPH. EXISTE UNA
POSIBILIDAD... DE 30 A 50 PORCIENTO...DE QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE
CONVIERTA EN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL SUROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE
ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS DISPERSOS Y TRONADAS. ALGUN DESARROLLO DE
ESTE SISTEMA DEBE SER LENTO DEBIDO A LA PROXIMIDAD A TIERRA. ES
POSIBLE LLUVIA FUERTE SOBRE NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...Y PANAMA ESTA
NOCHE Y EL MARTES MIENTRAS ESTA BAJA PRESION SE MUEVE AL OESTE DE 20
A 25 MPH. EXISTE UNA LEVE PROBABILIDAD...MENOS DEL 30 PORCIENTO...DE
QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE TORNE EN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
HORAS.
PARA EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES BRENNAN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
AXNT20 KNHC 242351
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N57W ALONG 18N58W TO 24N61W MOVING
W NEAR 20 KT. THIS TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH AN
NORTH-SOUTH ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N65W THAT
STRETCHES UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SWD ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH THE WAVE AXIS AND PAIRED WITH
MOIST S-SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE LOCATED EAST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 55W-63W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INVERTED-V CLOUD SIGNATURE AND THE
CIMSS WAVETRAK GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES
WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED COVERING
THE AREA FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 26W-34W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THIS
WAVE HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED A FEW DEGREES WEST FROM THE PREVIOUS
ANALYSIS AND BETTER COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN. THE CIMSS WAVETRAK GUIDANCE INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY AND LIFT WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MOVING W LOCATED FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN
78W-85W.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 16N27W 14N32W 7N47W
11N56W 11N59W 9N65W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 13W-19W. A SMALLER AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE NRN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 22W-26W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-42W LOCATED SE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
30W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM ORLANDO TO NEAR SARASOTA CONTINUING SW INTO THE
SE GULF ALONG 25N85W 23N90W TO 24N95W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA TO 26N97W IN THE NW GULF.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SRN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO 90W. A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF 24N
W OF 92W OVER THE SW GULF AND WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS AREA IS
FURTHER AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NRN GULF WHICH IS PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE...SINKING AIR
AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 71W WITH
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED S OF CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
20N79W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
THIS RIDGE AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF WRN CUBA. ON THE SRN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TRACKING
WWD...EXPECT INCREASED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CURRENTLY THIS ACTIVITY IS
FOUND S OF 16N W OF 78W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA. FARTHER TO THE E...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. MOIST SWLY
FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NE OF A LINE FROM SAINT
LUCIA TO SW HISPANIOLA.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC TO NEAR
TITUSVILLE FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N78W
TO 25N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT...
INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE SE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA
KEYS. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE LOCATED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 74W. FARTHER TO THE E
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS POSITIONED FROM 10N57W TO 24N61W WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NW OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 25N65W.
THESE TWO FEATURES ARE INTERACTING AND ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF
RATHER UNORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 55W-63W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N52W. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING THE BASIN E OF 50W WITH NE TRADES OF
UP TO 25 KT.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242331
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE-E...LOCATED ABOUT 660 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP2. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
ABNT20 KNHC 242331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ABOUT 300 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 25
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242331
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE-E...LOCATED ABOUT 660 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP2. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
ABNT20 KNHC 242331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ABOUT 300 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 25
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 242213 CCA
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
555 PM EDT LUNES 24 DE AGOSTO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
INFORME ESPECIAL EMITIDO PARA ANADIR DISCUSION DEL AREA EN EL
SUROESTE DEL CARIBE.
ACTUALIZACION...UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADA SOBRE EL SUROESTE
DEL MAR CARIBE ESTA PRODUCIENDO AGUACEROS DISPERSOS Y TRONADAS.
ALGUN DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA DEBE SER LENTO DEBIDO A LA
PROXIMIDAD A TIERRA. ES POSIBLE LLUVIA FUERTE SOBRE
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...Y PANAMA ESTA NOCHE Y EL MARTES MIENTRAS
ESTA BAJA PRESION SE MUEVE AL OESTE DE 20 A 25 MPH. EXISTE UNA LEVE
PROBABILIDAD...MENOS DEL 30 PORCIENTO...DE QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE TORNE
EN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
AREA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS A ALGUNAS CIENTOS DE
MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO SON ASOCIADOS A UNA ONDA
TROPICAL QUE INTERACTUA CON UNA BAJA PRESION EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS DE
LA ATMOSFERA. ALGUN DESARROLLO LENTO ES POSIBILE EN ESTE
SISTEMA...DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA HACIA EL
OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 20 A 25 MPH. EXISTE UNA POSIBILIDAD... DE 30 A
50 PORCIENTO...DE QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE CONVIERTA EN CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES BRENNAN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242153
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON AUG 24 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED NM SW OF THE
SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE-E. THE DEPRESSION WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE
16.3N...LONGITUDE 117.2W OR ABOUT 575 NM...1060 KM...SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 24/2100 UTC...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
WERE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB. VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING ORGANIZATION IN THE CLOUD PATTERN
WITH A BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE AND A
DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE -85C WITHIN THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. DESPITE THE RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE...THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE ELY SHEAR. A RECENT HIGH
RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS AT 1648 UTC REVEALED 30 KT WINDS OVER THE
E SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM VERIFYING THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG 08N78W TO 06N90W TO
7N100W TO 12N110W THEN CONTINUE FROM 13N120W TO 09N130W TO
13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS FROM 122W TO 136W.
...DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...
THE MID-UPPER PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN EVIDENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 21N144W NE
THROUGH 23N135W TO 32N130W. DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SE NEVADA ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO A COL NEAR 21N129W. A VAST AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A NARROW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS OF THE U.S. ACROSS W MEXICO TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NEAR 22N115W.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR
36N137W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES EXIST ACROSS THE NW CORNER AND N
15-20 KT WINDS NEAR THE N BAJA COAST WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER
WINDS IN BETWEEN. A MIX OF N AND S SWELL WILL MAINTAIN SEAS OF 6
TO 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.
S OF 20N...
A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TROPICS...ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT MID-UPPER FLOW TO THE S OF THE
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 22N115W. THIS DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ANTICYCLONE IS ALSO PROVIDING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE-E. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS. LONG PERIOD...14-16 SECOND...S TO SW SWELL IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE SUBSIDING.
$$
COBB
000
ABNT20 KNHC 242152
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
555 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO ADD DISCUSSION OF AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN.
UPDATED...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
WTPA35 PHFO 242056
TCPCP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
1100 AM HST MON AUG 24 2009
...HILDA STRUGGLING A BIT UNDER VERTICAL SHEAR THIS MORNING...
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.9 WEST OR
ABOUT 690 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 905 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.
HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. HILDA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SOME SLOWING OF ITS FORWARD SPEED. FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS...
HILDA IS PROJECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEYOND 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.9N 145.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
000
WTPA25 PHFO 242055
TCMCP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 145.9W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 50SE 50SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 145.9W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 145.4W
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.0N 147.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.1N 148.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.0N 150.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.8N 151.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.5N 154.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 14.9N 156.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 15.7N 160.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 145.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 242037
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2009
CORRECTED AWIPS BIN NUMBER
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST
OR ABOUT 660 MILES...1060 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...
17 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.3N 117.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTPZ22 KNHC 242036
TCMEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2009
CORRECTED AWIPS BIN NUMBER
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 117.2W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 117.2W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 116.7W
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.7N 118.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.4N 120.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.4N 122.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.7N 123.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.8N 126.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 26.0N 130.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 27.5N 133.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 117.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTPZ23 KNHC 242031
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2009
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 117.2W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 117.2W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 116.7W
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.7N 118.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.4N 120.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.4N 122.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.7N 123.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.8N 126.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 26.0N 130.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 27.5N 133.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 117.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 242031
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2009
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST
OR ABOUT 660 MILES...1060 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...
17 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.3N 117.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTPZ23 KNHC 242031
TCMEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2009
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 117.2W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 117.2W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 116.7W
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.7N 118.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.4N 120.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.4N 122.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.7N 123.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.8N 126.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 26.0N 130.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 27.5N 133.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 117.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 242031
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2009
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST
OR ABOUT 660 MILES...1060 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...
17 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.3N 117.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
ACPN50 PHFO 241945
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON AUG 24 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HILDA...LOCATED ABOUT 690 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. HILDA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT
13 MPH. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HILDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTPA25 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP5.
2. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS WITHIN
A BROAD...NEARLY EAST TO WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED 675
MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
$$
WROE
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241758
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 24 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 625
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241757
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
000
AXNT20 KNHC 241737
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AN 1144 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
PASS...AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE ALSO
IS AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS TO THE E
OF THE AXIS CURRENTLY INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE.
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 18
KT. AN INVERTED-V FEATURE IS APPARENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
STRUCTURE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES
WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 52W-58W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
WAVE LIES IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT RANGES
FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA TO ERN PANAMA. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IS ALSO BROAD OVER THIS SAME AREA. DUE TO THE BROAD SURFACE
FLOW...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WAVE IS LOW AND
THE WAVE MAY BE FARTHER WEST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 69W-72W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 76W-82W.
THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 14N27W 9N39W 13N54W
9N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
12N-17N BETWEEN 16W-25W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT DIPS ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W TO 25N87W CONTINUING TO THE
TEXAS COAST TO NEAR 29N95. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NRN
GULF TO NEAR 25N96W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN
91W-96W. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
BRINGING THE REMAINDER OF THE NRN GULF GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SRN GULF S OF 26N
EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO S FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN GULF AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN GULF LINKED TO AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OVER CUBA NEAR 23N80W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
OVER THE W GULF BY TUE NIGHT.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-18N
BETWEEN 82W-89W. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W. THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW AND S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ AND A 1007 MB LOW
OVER PANAMA NEAR 8N78W. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER CUBA NEAR 23N80W IS BRINGING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE ATLC NEAR 26N63W AND AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH TO E NEAR 19N45W. EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
ALONG 56W TO REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN LATER TONIGHT.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA EXTENDS FROM 29N81W TO
31N80W CONTINUING NNE AS A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AFFECTING THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER CUBA NEAR 23N80W. TO THE E OF THE RIDGE A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N63W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 19N45W
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-26N
BETWEEN 60W-67W. SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE E OF THIS AREA IS
SUPPORTED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W...SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A
1027 MB HIGH NEAR 36N48W.
$$
WALTON
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241604
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON AUG 24 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 550 NM SW OF THE
SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 16N116W. THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOW AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE WRN SEMICIRCLE...WHICH HAS ALSO GAINED
CURVATURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER...MODERATE ELY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM AND IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION E OF THE CENTER. A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS AT
1304 UTC REVEALED 25 TO 30 KT WINDS OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM INDICATING THE SYSTEM IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...MORE LIKELY SOONER.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG 07N78W TO 07N95W TO
16N113W TO 11N130W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N TO
08N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 07N
BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
13N TO 16N BETWEEN 105W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 137W.
...DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...
THE MID-UPPER PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN EVIDENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 21N144W NE
THROUGH 23N135W TO 32N130W. DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NW ARIZONA ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO A BASE NEAR 21N127W. A VAST AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A NARROW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION OF THE U.S. ACROSS W MEXICO TO ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NEAR 22N113W.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR
36N137W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES EXIST ACROSS THE NW CORNER AND N
15-20 KT WINDS NEAR THE N BAJA COAST WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER
WINDS IN BETWEEN. A MIX OF N AND S SWELL WILL MAINTAIN SEAS OF 6
TO 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK.
S OF 20N...
A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TROPICS...ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT MID-UPPER FLOW TO THE S OF THE
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 22N113W. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 16N116W
BUT ALSO PROVIDING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AS WELL. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. LONG
PERIOD...14-16 SECOND...S TO SW SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE
SUBSIDING.
$$
COBB
000
WTPA35 PHFO 241435
TCPCP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 AM HST MON AUG 24 2009
...HILDA CONTINUES MOVING WEST ON A TRACK WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII...
AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.4 WEST OR ABOUT
740 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 950 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.
HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH. HILDA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
HILDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.4N 145.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
000
WTPA25 PHFO 241434
TCMCP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 145.4W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 145.4W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 144.9W
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.5N 147.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.7N 148.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 55SE 55SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.8N 150.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 65SE 65SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.6N 151.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.4N 154.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 14.3N 157.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 14.4N 160.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 145.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
000
ACPN50 PHFO 241355
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST MON AUG 24 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HILDA...LOCATED ABOUT 735 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. HILDA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT
13 MPH. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HILDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTPA25 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP5.
2. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST TO
WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUED ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTH OF
SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
$$
HOUSTON
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 241214 CCA
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS...CORRECCION TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT LUNES 24 DE AGOSTO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIDO EL ULTIMO AVISO SOBRE
BILL...EL CUAL PERDIO SUS CARACTERISTICAS TROPICALES Y ESTA
LOCALIZADO COMO A 190 MILLAS AL NORESTE DE CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
UN AREA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS EN ASOCIACION CON
UNA ONDA TROPICAL QUE INTERACTUA CON UNA BAJA PRESION EN LOS NIVELES
ALTOS DE LA ATMOSFERA...LOCALIZADA A ALREDEDOR DE 350 MILLAS AL ESTE
DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. ALGUN DESARROLLO LENTO ES POSBILE EN ESTE
SISTEMA...DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA HACIA EL
OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 20 A 25 MPH. EXISTE UNA BAJA POSIBILIDAD...
MENOS DE 30 POR CIENTO...DE QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE CONVIERTA EN CICLON
TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241149
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON AUG 24 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION WOULD LEAD TO TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE LOW
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241144
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
BILL...WHICH LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE LOCATED ABOUT
190 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE LOCATED ABOUT 350
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
000
AXNT20 KNHC 241056
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE BILL LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IT WAS
DOWNGRADED TO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM AT 24/0900 UTC. THE CENTER
OF EXTRATROPICAL STORM BILL AT 24/0900 UTC IS NEAR 48.6N 50.2W
OR ABOUT 190 MILES/305 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST 37 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ
THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AFOS/WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER TCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W TO THE SOUTH OF
23N...NOT MOVING MUCH DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAD BEEN
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W.
THE ITCZ...
FROM 14N17W TO 10N30W TO 9N53W BEYOND SOUTHERN TRINIDAD.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
TO INLAND MEXICO ABOUT 180 NM TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS TROUGH IS GUIDING THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO
STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF...AND THEN IT CURVES NORTHWARD BEYOND EAST TEXAS.
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EVERYWHERE.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW HAS INVADED THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 70W...FROM A LARGE-SCALE ATLANTIC
OCEAN 26N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 70W FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...CREATING A LITTLE BIT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW...AND A FEW SHOWERS IN THIS AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH HAS MOVED ASHORE FROM HONDURAS TO
NICARAGUA TO COSTA RICA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN SPREADING ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT...FROM
NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND BELIZE.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 34N50W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N62W. CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE 26N62W CENTER COVERS
THE AREA FROM 14N TO THE EAST OF 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 34N
BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE 26N62W
CENTER. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 28N29W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 18N35W TO 10N38W.
$$
MT
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240924
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 24 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 500 NM SW OF THE
SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 16N115W. IR SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW AN EXPANDING CONVECTIVE MASS IN THE WRN SEMICIRCLE...WHICH
HAS GAINED CURVATURE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...MODERATE
ELY SHEAR IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION E OF THE CENTER. A
QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 0200 UTC REVEALED A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH
AN ELONGATED E-W CENTER. BASED ON THIS DATA...WINDS ARE MAINLY
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITHIN 360 NM OF THE CENTER. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG 08N78W 10N110W
15N112W 12N127W 14N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
06N TO 09N E OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N
TO 06N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W.
...DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...
THE MID-UPPER PATTERN HAS FLATTENED TODAY BUT STILL A
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE IS
ALIGNED ALONG 134W WHILE THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TO 20N129W. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES...PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES
IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N136W. NE 15-20 KT TRADES EXIST
ACROSS THE NW CORNER AND N 15-20 KT WINDS NEAR THE N BAJA COAST
WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS IN BETWEEN. A MIX OF N AND S SWELL
WILL MAINTAIN SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
S OF 20N...
A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TROPICS...ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT MID-UPPER FLOW. THE DIFFLUENT
FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRES...SPECIAL FEATURE...NEAR 115W. SEE ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
LONG PERIOD...14-16 SECOND...S TO SW SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE
SUBSIDING.
$$
CANGIALOSI
000
WTNT33 KNHC 240840
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST MON AUG 24 2009
...BILL LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR NEWFOUNDLAND.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 48.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES...
305 KM...NORTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 43 MPH...69 KM/HR. AN
EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. EVEN THOUGH BILL IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF STORM AND GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315 MILES...510 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...48.6N 50.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 43 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS
000
WTNT23 KNHC 240838
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
0900 UTC MON AUG 24 2009
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR NEWFOUNDLAND.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.6N 50.2W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 37 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 175SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT.......225NE 275SE 240SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 420SE 600SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.6N 50.2W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 48.0N 53.0W
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 50.0N 41.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 175SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 275SE 300SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 51.5N 29.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 400SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 52.5N 19.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 350SE 400SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 55.0N 11.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 350SE 350SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 62.5N 1.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...ABSORBED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 48.6N 50.2W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON BILL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS
000
WTPA35 PHFO 240832
TCPCP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2009
...HILDA INTENSIFYING AND MOVING WESTWARD ON A TRACK FAR SOUTH OF
HAWAII...
AT 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.1 WEST OR
ABOUT 815 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII...AND ABOUT 1025 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.
HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH HILDA
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.3N 144.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
000
WTPA25 PHFO 240832
TCMCP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
0900 UTC MON AUG 24 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 144.1W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 144.1W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 143.6W
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.7N 145.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 45SE 45SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.0N 147.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 55SE 55SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.2N 149.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 65SE 65SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.2N 151.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 65SE 65SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 15.1N 154.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 15.1N 157.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 15.0N 160.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 144.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
000
ACPN50 PHFO 240745
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HILDA...LOCATED ABOUT 810 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. HILDA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT
12 MPH. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HILDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTPA25 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP5.
2. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST TO
WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUED ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTH OF
SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
$$
HOUSTON
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 240621 CCA
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS...CORRECCION TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT LUNES 24 DE AGOSTO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN BILL...LOCALIZADO COMO A 90 MILLAS AL NOR NOROESTE DE CAPE
RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
UN AREA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS DESORGANIZADAS EN ASOCIACION CON
UNA ONDA TROPICAL QUE INTERACTUA CON UNA BAJA PRESION EN LOS NIVELES
ALTOS DE LA ATMOSFERA...LOCALIZADA A ALREDEDOR DE 450 MILLAS AL ESTE
DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. ALGUN DESARROLLO LENTO ES POSBILE EN ESTE
SISTEMA...DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA HACIA EL
OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 20 A 25 MPH. EXISTE UNA BAJA POSIBILIDAD...
MENOS DE 30 POR CIENTO...DE QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE CONVIERTA EN CICLON
TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS/BROWN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
AXNT20 KNHC 240604
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL AT 24/0300 UTC IS NEAR 47.9N 53.6W
OR ABOUT 90 MILES/145 KM...TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST 23 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ
THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AFOS/ WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER TCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS AROUND THIS WAVE.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W AND 55W...MOVING
WEST FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N
TO 20N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W.
THE ITCZ...
FROM 14N17W TO 12N30W TO 10N40W TO 13N54W T0 12N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 16N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
THIS TROUGH IS GUIDING THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO STATIONARY
FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF...AND THEN IT CURVES NORTHWARD BEYOND EAST TEXAS.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING WITH TIME. MODERATE SHOWERS BETWEEN 90W
AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC REMAIN...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
WEAKENING WITH TIME ALSO.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW HAS INVADED THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM A LARGE-SCALE ATLANTIC OCEAN 26N61W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST...CREATING
A LITTLE BIT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...BUT NO DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH IS MOVING ASHORE FROM HONDURAS TO NICARAGUA TO COSTA RICA.
THIS TROUGH IS BRINGING ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 34N48W ATLANTIC
OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N61W. CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE 26N61W CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 34N BETWEEN 48W AND 68W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE
26N61W CENTER. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 30N25W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 20N31W.
$$
MT
000
WTNT33 KNHC 240544
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
200 AM AST MON AUG 24 2009
...BILL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS REPORTED AT CAPE RACE...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NEWFOUNDLAND FROM
BURGEO EASTWARD AROUND THE AVALON PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD TO FOGO
ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND
TO BURGEO ON THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST AND FROM FOGO ISLAND TO
HARBOUR DEEP ON THE NORTHEAST COAST.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 47.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
145 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF BILL WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BILL IS
EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. A WEATHER OBSERVING SITE IN CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 58 MPH...93 KM/HR...WITH A
GUST TO 82 MPH...131 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND.
LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS IMPACTING THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.
...SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...47.9N 53.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 40 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240542
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 23 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN
000
ABNT20 KNHC 240541
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE LOCATED ABOUT 450
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240306
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 24 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 16N112W WITH AN
ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE INDICATED A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WEST OF THE LOW IN THE AREA
FROM 15N TO 19N FROM 112W TO 119W. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN
THIS AREA HAS WEAKENED. THERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SEVERAL OF THE NWP MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS
WELL.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 125W FROM 09N TO 18N MOVING W 10 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING NEAR 13N. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
AND THE AREA OF TURNING HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE DAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG...06N77W TO 06N100W
TO 10N110W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 06.5N81.5W.
...DISCUSSION...
RIDGE IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N125W TO 20N130W 10N135W.
THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS
WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS NORTH OF 25N AND BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS SOUTH OF 25N.
EAST OF THE RIDGE A TROUGH IS OBSERVED WEST OF A LINE THROUGH
32N11W TO 26N115W TO 13N131W. THIS AREA IS ALSO DRY AND CLOUD
FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF
25N AND BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS SOUTH OF 25N.
A STRONG TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXTENDS
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN AN AREA
NORTH OF 15N FROM 105W TO A LINE FROM 15N97W TO BEYOND THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TROUGH AREA IS
FAIRLY DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW SMALL
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MEXICO.
BETWEEN THE ABOVE TWO TROUGHS A RIDGE IS OBSERVED. THIS RIDGE IS
DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH WIDESPREAD MULTI LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION. IT IS WITHIN THIS AREA THAT THE
SPECIAL FEATURE LOW PRESSURE IS EMBEDDED. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO IN THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL.
THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN PROPAGATING NORTHWARD FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND IS APPROACHING THE UNITED STATES BORDER.
EAST OF THE SECOND TROUGH ANOTHER RIDGE IS OBSERVED. THIS RIDGE
IS ALSO DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED
AREAS OF CONVECTION.
MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 115W. LARGE WEAK
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 20N FROM 105W TO 130W.
THIS AREA INCLUDES THE LOW THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
GAP NORTHERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT ARE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
GAP EASTERLY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS MAINLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
$$
LL
000
WTPA35 PHFO 240246
TCPCP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
500 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2009
...HILDA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY...
AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1085 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 875 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII.
HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.2N 143.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER WROE
000
WTPA25 PHFO 240246
TCMCP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 143.2W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 143.2W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 142.7W
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.6N 144.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.0N 146.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.3N 148.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.4N 150.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 85NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.3N 154.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 85NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 15.2N 156.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 15.0N 160.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 143.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER WROE
000
WTNT33 KNHC 240232
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009
...BILL APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...EXPECTED TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE
EDWARD ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NEWFOUNDLAND FROM
BURGEO EASTWARD AROUND THE AVALON PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD TO FOGO
ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND
TO BURGEO ON THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST AND FROM FOGO ISLAND TO
HARBOUR DEEP ON THE NORTHEAST COAST.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 47.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...
190 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BILL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND.
LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA OVERNIGHT.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...47.1N 55.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 40 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
WTNT23 KNHC 240232
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2009
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE
EDWARD ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NEWFOUNDLAND FROM
BURGEO EASTWARD AROUND THE AVALON PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD TO FOGO
ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND
TO BURGEO ON THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST AND FROM FOGO ISLAND TO
HARBOUR DEEP ON THE NORTHEAST COAST.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.1N 55.5W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT.......225NE 240SE 240SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 540SE 660SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.1N 55.5W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 46.3N 57.9W
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 49.1N 47.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 300SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 50.8N 36.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 400SW 250NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 52.2N 24.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 350SE 400SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 53.5N 14.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 350SE 350SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 61.0N 2.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.1N 55.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
ACPN50 PHFO 240145
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HILDA...LOCATED ABOUT 870 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. HILDA S MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 12 MPH. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HILDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPA25 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP5.
2. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST TO
WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUED BETWEEN 400 AND 900 MILES
SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. DEVELOPEMENT WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
$$
H LAU
000
AXNT20 KNHC 232347
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 46.2N 57.9W AT 24/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 200 NM W OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 30 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
FROM 46N-51N BETWEEN 48W-58W TO THE NE OF THE CENTER OF BILL.
SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CIMSS WAVETRAK GUIDANCE INDICATE LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED FROM 9N-20N BETWEEN 21W-27W.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N49W TO 17N52W MOVING W NEAR 23 KT.
AN INVERTED-V CLOUD SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
FIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD BENEATH MOIST SLY
FLOW ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N58W...
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 47W-57W AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BEING ENHANCED BY
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 13 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM THAT HAS BEEN
TRACKING ACROSS THE SERN AND NOW S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N
BETWEEN 67W-75W.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N17W 13N23W 12N25W 10N33W
13N48W 13N52W 11N67W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 16W-22W. AN AREA OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 25W-28W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 60W-66W ACROSS NE
VENEZUELA AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN SEA.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND ENTERS THE ERN GULF NEAR SARASOTA CONTINUING SW TO
25N87W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 24N92W 26N94W.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTED BY A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH AXIS ALONG THE ERN CONUS TO SRN ALABAMA AND OVER THE
N/CENTRAL GULF TO 25N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT AND COVER AN AREA FROM
21N-25N BETWEEN 89W-96W IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
AN EXTENSION OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS
ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE THAT IS ENHANCING THIS
CONVECTION AS WELL AS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S
OF 22N ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS TAKING HOLD PROMOTING
SUBSIDENCE...SINKING AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATERS.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON
MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA. ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N W OF
79W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. FARTHER TO THE
E...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
70W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 67W-75W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH TUE.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTENDS A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC TO NEAR FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING A
PORTION OF THE SE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS
AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LOCATED E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER TO THE E OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N47W. THE RIDGE STRETCHES THROUGH BERMUDA
TO THE NW BAHAMAS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...THE SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS IN CONTROL HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
23N58W AND IS PROVIDING POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 17N-27N
BETWEEN 50W-62W. THIS AREA IS LOCATED TO THE N AND NW OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG APPROXIMATELY 51W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC
E OF 50W...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY THE 1028
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N47W IS PROVIDING THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN WITH NE TO ELY TRADES OF UP TO 25 KT.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 232346 CCA
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO
NWS...CORRECCION TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 23 DE AGOSTO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN BILL...LOCALIZADO COMO A 230 MILLAS AL OESTE DE CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.
UN AREA DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS HA AUMENTADO EN LAS PASADAS HORAS EN
ASOCIACION CON UNA ONDA TROPICAL QUE INTERACTUA CON UNA BAJA PRESION
EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS DE LA ATMOSFERA...LOCALIZADA A ALREDEDOR DE 600
MILLAS AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. CUALQUIER DESARROLLO DE
ESTE SISTEMA...SI ALGUNO...OCURRIRA LENTAMENTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVA HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE ENTRE 20 A 25
MPH. EXISTE UNA LEVE POSIBILIDAD...MENOS DE 30 POR CIENTO...DE QUE
ESTE SISTEMA SE CONVIERTA EN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48
HORAS.
PARA EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 232343
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT DOMINGO 23 DE AGOSTO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN BILL...LOCALIZADO COMO A 230 MILLAS AL OESTE DE .
PARA EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 232335
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES WEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232333
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 23 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTNT33 KNHC 232331
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
800 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009
...BILL RACING TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM
SECUM TO BRULE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BRULE
TO MALAGASH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
FROM SAVAGE HARBOUR TO WOOD ISLANDS EAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM VICTORIA TO WOOD ISLANDS EAST AND FROM
SAVAGE HARBOUR TO LOWER DARNLEY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NEWFOUNDLAND FROM
BURGEO EASTWARD AROUND THE AVALON PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD TO FOGO
ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND
TO BURGEO ON THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST AND FROM FOGO ISLAND TO
HARBOUR DEEP ON THE NORTHEAST COAST.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 46.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST OR ABOUT 230 MILES...
375 KM...WEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR...AND AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BILL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM. WITHIN THE LAST TWO HOURS...SABLE ISLAND REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH...78 KM/HR...AND A PEAK WIND GUST OF 63
MPH...102 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN END OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.
LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA TONIGHT.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...46.2N 57.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 35 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232143
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 23 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED NEAR 16N112W WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008
MB. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE INDICATED
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW MAINLY IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM
14N TO 19N BETWEEN 112W AND 119W. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN
THIS AREA HAS WEAKENED. THERE IS A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SEVERAL OF THE NWP MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM
AS WELL.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 125W FROM 09N TO 16N HAS BEEN RELOCATED
BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 10 KT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE DAY SHOWED SOME LOW
TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR 13N...BUT DISPLACED TO THE E
OF THE WAVE AXIS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
AND THE AREA OF TURNING HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG 04N77W TO 06N105W TO
11N120W TO 08N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
WITHIN 90 NM OF 06.5N79.5W.
...DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...
A FAIRLY COMPLEX MID-UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS SITUATED JUST S OF SRN
BAJA NEAR 23N111W...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH 32N117W BECOMES FRACTURED AND EXTENDS
SW TO 20N127W. THIS TROUGH SPLITS THE UPPER HIGH NOTED ABOVE
FROM ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 20N139W. DESPITE THE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN...THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IS ALONG THE
MEXICAN COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 24N TO 28N WHERE A
COMBINATION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL IS PRODUCING SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS
ALONG AND W OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE WITH THE STORMS PROPAGATING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OVER THE PAST 6 TO 9 HOURS. A WEAK LOW
LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA
COAST...HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HENCE THE TRADES.
THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO ALLOWING WINDS TO
BE MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KT...EXCEPT FOR OVER THE FAR NW CORNER. A
MIX OF N AND S SWELL WILL ELEVATE SEAS TO 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE.
S OF 20N...
A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TROPICS...ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT MID-UPPER FLOW. THE DIFFLUENT
FLOW IS MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRES...SPECIAL FEATURE...NEAR 111W. SEE
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. LONG PERIOD...14-16 SECOND...S TO SW
SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE SUBSIDING.
$$
COBB
000
WTPA35 PHFO 232054
TCPCP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 23 2009
...HILDA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY...
AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 1160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 950
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII.
HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.0N 142.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM HST.
$$
FORECASTER WROE
000
WTPA25 PHFO 232054
TCMCP5
TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112009
2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 142.0W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 142.0W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 141.5W
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.4N 143.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.8N 145.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.1N 147.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.2N 149.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.3N 152.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 15.3N 155.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 15.3N 158.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 142.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER WROE
000
WTNT33 KNHC 232036
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009
...BILL NEAR EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA...HEADED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA
FROM EAST OF HUBBARDS TO LISMORE...AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM ECUM SECUM IN HALIFAX COUNTY TO POINT ACONI IN CAPE
BRETON COUNTY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE
COUNTY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO BONAVISTA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSONS POND AROUND TO STONES COVE...AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BONAVISTA TO HARBOUR DEEP.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 45.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.8 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES...
620 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR...AND A
FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF BILL PASS NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND BILL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN END OF NOVA SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.
LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL BE
IMPACTING THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA TONIGHT.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...45.1N 60.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 35 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
000
WTNT23 KNHC 232035
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2009
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA
FROM EAST OF HUBBARDS TO LISMORE...AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM ECUM SECUM IN HALIFAX COUNTY TO POINT ACONI IN CAPE
BRETON COUNTY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE
COUNTY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO BONAVISTA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSONS POND AROUND TO STONES COVE...AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BONAVISTA TO HARBOUR DEEP.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.1N 60.8W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 30 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT.......250NE 250SE 175SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 480SE 540SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.1N 60.8W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 62.5W
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 47.7N 54.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...225NE 250SE 200SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 50.0N 43.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...225NE 250SE 250SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 51.5N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...175NE 225SE 250SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 52.5N 21.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...125NE 200SE 200SW 115NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 57.0N 5.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.1N 60.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
000
ACPN50 PHFO 231945
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN AUG 23 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU...HAWAII IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HILDA...LOCATED ABOUT 970
MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. HILDA S MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HILDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPA25 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP5.
2. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST TO
WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUED ABOUT 635 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
$$
H LAU
000
WTNT33 KNHC 231816
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
200 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009
CORRECTED TO INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR EASTERN PRINCE EDWARD
ISLAND
...BILL MOVING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA...
AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE IN
SHELBURNE COUNTY TO HUBBARDS IN HALIFAX COUNTY...AND DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF MALAGASH IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY
TO TIDNISH IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM FORT LAWRENCE IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY TO
CHARLESVILLE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT IN EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA
FROM EAST OF HUBBARDS TO LISMORE...AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM ECUM SECUM IN HALIFAX COUNTY TO POINT ACONIIN IN CAPE
BRETON COUNTY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE
COUNTY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONE`S COVE TO BONAVISTA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSONS POND AROUND TO STONE`S COVE...AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BONAVISTA TO HARBOUR DEEP.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 44.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...
95 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR...AND A
FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST
OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND BILL IS LIKELY TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND.
LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL BE
IMPACTING THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA TODAY. SWELLS ALONG THE
U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...44.4N 62.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
AXNT20 KNHC 231807
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1630 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AS OF 23/1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL IS NEAR 44.4N
62.5W OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA
SCOTIA. BILL IS MOVING TO THE NE NEAR 29 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AFOS/ WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND
THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER TCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 41N-49N BETWEEN 53W-65W
TO THE NE OF THE CENTER OF BILL.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE GOOD
LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN
23W-27W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 18W-20W.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N51W TO 9N48W MOVING W 20-25 KT.
AN INVERTED-V FEATURE IS APPARENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
STRUCTURE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES
WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-15N BETWEEN 45W-54W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
POSITION IS BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
67W-72W.
THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 13N22W 9N33W 15N48W
12N56W 11N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 14W-18W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 60W-64W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT DIPS ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM N
FLORIDA NEAR 31N81W TO 25N88W AND UP TO THE TEXAS COAST TO NEAR
29N95 WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO N TEXAS. THE
FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS
WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE NRN GULF TO NEAR 24N92W.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. A WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH IS IN THE SW GULF NEAR
25N94W. AN 1148 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE LOCATION OF THE
HIGH. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
19N93W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N W OF 93W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER
HAITI NEAR 20N73W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N93W IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 16N W OF 80W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE SE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W...SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS IN
THE E CARIBBEAN AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE WAVE
ALONG 68W TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATER TONIGHT.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN FLORIDA EXTENDS TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
IN COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AFFECTING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FAR NW BAHAMAS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER HAITI NEAR
20N73W. TO THE E OF THE RIDGE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 25N56W AND IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 50W-62W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH NEAR 36N47W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED NEAR 18N39W ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 50W.
$$
WALTON
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 231806
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT DOMINGO 23 DE AGOSTO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN BILL...LOCALIZADO COMO A 60 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE
HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
PARA EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231803
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA
SCOTIA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
000
WTNT33 KNHC 231802
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
200 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009
...BILL MOVING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA...
AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE IN
SHELBURNE COUNTY TO HUBBARDS IN HALIFAX COUNTY...AND DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF MALAGASH IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY
TO TIDNISH IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM FORT LAWRENCE IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY TO
CHARLESVILLE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT IN EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA
FROM EAST OF HUBBARDS TO LISMORE...AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM ECUM SECUM IN HALIFAX COUNTY TO POINT ACONIIN IN CAPE
BRETON COUNTY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONE`S COVE TO BONAVISTA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSONS POND AROUND TO STONE`S COVE...AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BONAVISTA TO HARBOUR DEEP.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 44.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...
95 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR...AND A
FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST
OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND BILL IS LIKELY TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND.
LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL BE
IMPACTING THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA TODAY. SWELLS ALONG THE
U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...44.4N 62.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231751
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 23 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
TROPICAL STORM HILDA HAS ENTERED THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN AND IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1070 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE NEXT
ADVISORY ON HILDA WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HILDA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ31 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP1.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231554
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 23 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8 140.1W OR ABOUT 950
NM...1725 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AT 23/1500 UTC.
HILDA WAS MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 8 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS REMAIN 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1003 MB. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS
CONFINED TO WITHIN 120 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. THIS ASYMMETRIC
CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COUPLE OF
DAYS ONLY ALLOWING FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM IS
CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HFOTCPCP5/WTPA35 PHFO.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED NEAR 16N111W WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008
MB. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED FAIRLY WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF
THE LOW MAINLY IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 120W. THERE IS A MODERATE POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. SEVERAL OF THE
NWP MODELS SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 124W FROM 09N TO 15N MOVING W 10 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY
SHOW SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING NEAR 13N. OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
WITHIN 60-75 NM OF 14N123W.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG 07N78W TO 13N110W TO
12N130W TO 14N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 85W AND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
120 NM S OF AXIS AND WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND
120W.
...DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...
A FAIRLY COMPLEX MID-UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICS. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS SITUATED JUST S OF SRN
BAJA NEAR 23N111W...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH 32N119W TO 20N127W. THIS
TROUGH SPLITS THE UPPER HIGH NOTED ABOVE FROM ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL HIGH NEAR 21N138W. DESPITE THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN...THE
ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA FROM 23N AND 25N WHERE A COMBINATION OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS ALONG AND W OF THE MOUNTAIN
RANGE WITH THE STORMS PROPAGATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.
A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
NRN BAJA COAST...HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HENCE
THE TRADES. THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO
ALLOWING WINDS TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KT...EXCEPT FOR OVER
THE FAR NW CORNER. A MIX OF N AND S SWELL WILL ELEVATE SEAS TO 6
TO 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE.
S OF 20N...
A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TROPICS...ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT MID-UPPER FLOW. THE DIFFLUENT
FLOW IS MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRES...SPECIAL FEATURE...NEAR 111W. SEE
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. LONG PERIOD...14-17 SECOND...S TO SW
SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE SUBSIDING.
$$
COBB
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 231450
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112009
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 23 2009
...HILDA ENTERING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.1 WEST OR ABOUT
2075 MILES...3335 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 1070 MILES...1725 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII.
HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.8N 140.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON HILDA. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA35 PHFO...BEGINNING AT 1100 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 231449
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112009
1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2009
CORRECTED AWIPS AND WMO HEADERS FOR NEXT ADVISORY
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.1W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.1W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 139.7W
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.9N 141.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.2N 143.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.5N 144.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.8N 146.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.8N 149.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 15.0N 152.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 15.0N 155.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 140.1W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON HILDA. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMCP5 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA25 PHFO...BEGINNING AT 1100 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
000
WTNT33 KNHC 231446
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2009
...BILL MOVING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
TO POINT ACONI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH...FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE...
AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONE`S COVE TO BONAVISTA. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSONS POND AROUND TO STONE`S COVE...AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BONAVISTA TO HARBOUR DEEP.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 43.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
150 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/HR...AND A
FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST
OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND BILL IS LIKELY TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND.
LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL BE
IMPACTING THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA TODAY. SWELLS ALONG THE
U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...43.3N 64.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 33 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT23 KNHC 231445
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2009
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
TO POINT ACONI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH...FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE...
AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONE`S COVE TO BONAVISTA. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSONS POND AROUND TO STONE`S COVE...AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BONAVISTA TO HARBOUR DEEP.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.3N 64.0W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 29 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT.......250NE 250SE 175SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 480SE 420SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.3N 64.0W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.4N 65.4W
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 46.3N 59.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 200SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 49.0N 49.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...225NE 250SE 250SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 50.8N 37.4W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 275SE 325SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 52.5N 26.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 400SW 240NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 57.0N 8.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.3N 64.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 231439
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112009
1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.1W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 140.1W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 139.7W
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.9N 141.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.2N 143.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.5N 144.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.8N 146.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.8N 149.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 15.0N 152.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 15.0N 155.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 140.1W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON HILDA. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCPX AND WMO HEADER
WTPAXX PHFO...BEGINNING AT 1100 AM HST.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
000
ACPN50 PHFO 231347
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN AUG 23 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HILDA...LOCATED ABOUT 1070 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. HILDA...WHICH IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 9 MPH...WILL CROSS LONGITUDE 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ON HILDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ31 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP1.
2. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST TO
WEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED ABOUT 635 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
$$
HOUSTON
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 231158
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT DOMINGO 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN BILL...LOCALIZADO COMO A 175 MILLAS AL SUR SURESTE DE
HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
PARA EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
WTNT33 KNHC 231157
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
800 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2009
...LARGE HURRICANE BILL ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD...
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS
OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
TO POINT ACONI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO BONAVISTA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSONS POND AROUND TO STONES COVE...AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BONAVISTA TO HARBOUR DEEP.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH...FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE...
AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
42.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 31 MPH...50 KM/HR...AND A
FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AS BILL MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES
OF CANADA TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. SWELLS FROM BILL ARE STILL
AFFECTING BERMUDA BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...42.4N 65.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 31 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231157
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA
SCOTIA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231140
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 23 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HILDA...LOCATED ABOUT 1125 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HILDA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ31 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP1.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
000
AXNT20 KNHC 231049
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL AT 23/0900 UTC IS NEAR 41.2N 66.5W
OR ABOUT 185 MILES/300 KM TO THE EAST OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS...AND ABOUT 275 MILES/445 KM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 23 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 961 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AFOS/ WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER TCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 39N TO 40N BETWEEN 66W AND
68W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
15N22W 12N25W 8N27W...AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
21W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED FROM 43W/44W
TO 48W BASED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 40W
AND 54W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
THE ITCZ...
FROM 11N22W TO 12N37W 10N53W TO 10N61W NEAR TRINIDAD AND
VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 50W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. THIS TROUGH IS PUSHING THE CURRENT GULF COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 26N. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN...AND SOME ARE DISSIPATING WHILE OTHERS
ALTERNATELY ARE DEVELOPING...TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN FLORIDA
AND 95W. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS TROUGH. DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AT THIS MOMENT.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM EAST TO WEST...
FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TO 80W. THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
AND EASTERN HONDURAS...WITH A SMALL MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N70W INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 26N57W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 19N56W TO
14N60W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO
32N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
$$
MT
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230923
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 23 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7 139.3W OR ABOUT 1000
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AT 23/0900 UTC. HILDA WAS
MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 8 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1003 MB. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS
CONFINED TO WITHIN 180 NM W AND 30 NM E SEMICIRCLES. THIS
ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR.
THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS ONLY
ALLOWING FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER OF
RESPONSIBILITY BY MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
STORM HILDA CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED NEAR 14N109W. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1009 MB.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 109W-117W.
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED S AND W OF THE ILL-DEFINED
CENTER WITHIN THE ITCZ. A 0500 UTC ALTIMETER PASS REVEALED 8-10
FT COMBINED SEAS S OF THE LOW CENTER ENHANCED BY S TO SW SWELL.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND INDEED
MANY OF THE NWP MODELS SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 123W FROM 09N TO 15N MOVING W 10 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SHORTWAVE IR IMAGES SHOW A CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 13N. WHILE THIS WAVE DOES HAVE FAIR STRUCTURE IN ITS CLOUD
FIELD...CONVECTION IS VERY LIMITED.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG 07N78W 10N96W
13N107W 13N130W 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
01N TO 06N E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W.
...DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...
A FAIRLY COMPLEX MID-UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICS. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS SITUATED JUST S OF SRN BAJA
NEAR 22N111W...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST
NEAR 31N121W...ANOTHER UPPER HIGH NEAR 21N137W...AND ANOTHER
UPPER LOW WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 18N151W. WHILE THE PATTERN IS
AMPLIFIED...THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NEAR MEXICO WHERE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND W OF THE
MOUNTAIN RANGE. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST...HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND HENCE THE TRADES. THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR SO ALLOWING WINDS TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KT...EXCEPT
FOR OVER THE FAR NW CORNER. A MIX OF N AND S SWELL WILL ELEVATE
SEAS TO 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE.
S OF 20N...
A DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TROPICS...ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT MID-UPPER FLOW. THE DIFFLUENT
FLOW IS MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRES...SPECIAL FEATURE...NEAR 110W. SEE
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. LONG PERIOD...14-17 SECOND...S TO SW
SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE SUBSIDING.
$$
CANGIALOSI
000
WTNT33 KNHC 230843
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2009
...BILL HEADING TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM
STONE`S COVE TO BONAVISTA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSONS
POND AROUND TO STONE`S COVE...AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BONAVISTA TO HARBOUR DEEP.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
TO POINT ACONI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY
BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH...FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE...
AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 41.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES...
300 KM...EAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 275 MILES...445
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BILL WILL
PASS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...AND NEAR
OR ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY...AND OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AS BILL MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290
MILES...465 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. AROUND 1 INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND...OUTER CAPE COD AND MARTHAS
VINEYARD.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES
OF CANADA TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. SWELLS FROM BILL ARE STILL
AFFECTING BERMUDA BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...41.2N 66.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 26 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS
000
WTNT23 KNHC 230840
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
0900 UTC SUN AUG 23 2009
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM
STONE`S COVE TO BONAVISTA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM PARSONS
POND SOUTHWARD TO STONE`S COVE...AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND FROM BONAVISTA TO HARBOUR DEEP.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
TO POINT ACONI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY
BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH...FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE...
AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 66.5W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT.......250NE 250SE 175SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 420SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 66.5W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 67.3W
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 44.1N 63.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 175SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 47.5N 55.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...225NE 250SE 225SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 49.8N 43.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...175NE 275SE 325SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 50.5N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 360SW 300NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 54.0N 10.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 61.0N 2.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...ABSORBED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.2N 66.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 230836
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112009
0900 UTC SUN AUG 23 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 139.3W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 139.3W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 138.9W
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.9N 140.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.3N 142.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.6N 144.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.8N 145.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.0N 149.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 15.0N 152.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 15.0N 155.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 139.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 230836
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112009
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 23 2009
...HILDA A LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING...
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.3 WEST OR ABOUT
2025 MILES...3260 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 1125 MILES...1810 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII.
HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A
CONTINUED WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.7N 139.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN
000
ACPN50 PHFO 230749
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST SAT AUG 22 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI...FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HILDA...LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. HILDA...
WHICH IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 MPH...IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
LONGITUDE 140W INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY SUNDAY MORNING. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HILDA ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP1.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
$$
HOUSTON
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 230621
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT DOMINGO 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN BILL...LOCALIZADO COMO A 160 MILLAS AL SUR SURESTE DE
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
PARA EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BROWN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
AXNT20 KNHC 230618 CCA
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2009
CORRECTION IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTIONS
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL AT 23/0600 UTC IS NEAR 40.1N 67.4W
OR ABOUT 160 MILES/260 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS...AND ABOUT 365 MILES/590 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 961 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AFOS/
WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
TCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 39N TO 40N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
22W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM 10N20W TO 12N38W 10N50W TO 10N63W NEAR TRINIDAD AND
VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. THIS TROUGH IS PUSHING THE CURRENT GULF COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN...AND SOME ARE DISSIPATING...FROM TO
23N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURVES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO BETWEEN
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH
GUATEMALA.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM EAST TO WEST...
FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TO 80W. THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N71W INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO THE EAST
OF THE TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 26N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N56W TO 16N59W.
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO 30N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
17N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
$$
MT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 230610
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
AXNT20 KNHC 230605
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL AT 23/0600 UTC IS NEAR 40.1N 67.4W
OR ABOUT 160 MILES/260 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS...AND ABOUT 365 MILES/590 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 961 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AFOS/
WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
TCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 39N TO 40N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
22W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KT. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM 10N20W TO 12N38W 10N50W TO 10N63W NEAR TRINIDAD AND
VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. THIS TROUGH IS PUSHING THE CURRENT GULF COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN...AND SOME ARE DISSIPATING...FROM TO
23N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W. AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURVES FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO BETWEEN
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH
GUATEMALA.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 80W
INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA FROM EL SALVADOR TO GUATEMALA...
HONDURAS...AND IN MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC EASTWARD
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE DIFFLUENT
FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FLOW REGIMES FROM JAMAICA TO THE WATERS
TO THE EAST OF NICARAGUA. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE MOVING WESTWARD IN THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N51W. A TROUGH RUNS
FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 24N53W. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS
FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 44W AND 56W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
32N22W TO 28N25W TO 28N30W.
$$
MT
000
WTNT33 KNHC 230547
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
200 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2009
...THE CENTER OF BILL PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...OUTER
RAINBANDS SWEEPING ACROSS THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
TO POINT ACONI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH...FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE...
AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND AROUND
THE WESTERN...SOUTHERN...AND EASTERN COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO
HARBOUR DEEP. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 40.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.4 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...
260 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 365
MILES...590 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
BILL WILL PASS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY...AND
APPROACHING NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AS BILL MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY
44008...LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES...100 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH...53 KM/HR...AND A
WIND GUST OF 43 MPH...68 KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND...WITH AROUND 1 INCH
EXPECTED OVER OUTER CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES
OF CANADA TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. SWELLS FROM BILL ARE STILL
AFFECTING BERMUDA BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.
...SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...40.1N 67.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 25 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230527
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HILDA...LOCATED ABOUT 1155 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 560 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HILDA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ31 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP1.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230310
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 23 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 138.5W OR ABOUT 1050
NM...1945 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AT 23/0300 UTC.
HILDA WAS MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 8 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS
CONFINED TO WITHIN 100 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT AND 75 NM IN THE NW
QUADRANT AND 30 NM E SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER OF
RESPONSIBILITY MIDDAY SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM HILDA CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W/111W FROM 08N TO 21N MOVING W AT 17
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAY
TODAY SHOWED AN IMPROVED AREA OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING WITH EVIDENCE OF A CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE AXIS
NEAR 14N. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
90-120 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N TO 15N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 15N TO 20N. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 125W FROM 08N TO 17N MOVING W 15 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS SOUTH OF 15N. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ANY ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO
13N110W TO 11N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 107W AND
112W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF
THE POINT 13.5N116W.
...DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...
A FAIRLY COMPLEX MID-UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICS. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR 23N106W...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST
NEAR 28N123W...ANOTHER UPPER HIGH NEAR 23N135W...AND ANOTHER
UPPER LOW WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 23N146W. WHILE THE PATTERN IS
AMPLIFIED...THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NEAR MEXICO WHERE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE MOUNTAIN
RANGE. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF
THE NRN BAJA COAST...HAS WEAKENED THE SURFACE RIDGE AND HENCE
THE TRADES. THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
ALLOWING WINDS TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KT...EXCEPT FOR OVER
THE FAR NW CORNER. A MIX OF N AND S SWELL WILL ELEVATE SEAS TO 6
TO 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUN AND MON.
S OF 20N...
VERY DIFFLUENT NE MID-UPPER FLOW AND DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS
PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICS. DIFFLUENT FLOW WAS MOST PRONOUNCED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W AND WAS AIDING
IN MAINTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SEE
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. LONG PERIOD...14-17 SECOND...S TO SW
SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
$$
LL
000
WTNT33 KNHC 230239
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
...BILL TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...OUTER RAINBANDS
APPROACHING CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
TO POINT ACONI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH...FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE...
AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND AROUND
THE WESTERN...SOUTHERN...AND EASTERN COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO
HARBOUR DEEP. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.8 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 435 MILES...
705 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE
BILL WILL PASS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...BE
NEAR NEAR NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY...AND BE NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS BILL MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. NOAA BUOY 44008...LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
29 MPH...49 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND...WITH AROUND 1 INCH
EXPECTED OVER OUTER CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES
OF CANADA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. SWELLS
FROM BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...39.1N 67.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 25 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
WTNT23 KNHC 230239
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
0300 UTC SUN AUG 23 2009
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
TO POINT ACONI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH...FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE...
AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND AROUND
THE WESTERN...SOUTHERN...AND EASTERN COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO
HARBOUR DEEP. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 67.8W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 22 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT.......240NE 150SE 130SW 165NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 480SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 67.8W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 68.4W
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.3N 65.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...230NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 46.3N 59.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 180SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 49.3N 49.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...190NE 250SE 240SW 240NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 51.0N 37.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 360SW 300NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 53.0N 16.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 60.0N 6.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 64.0N 4.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 67.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 230232
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112009
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2009
...HILDA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.5 WEST OR ABOUT
1980 MILES...3185 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 1175 MILES...1895 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII.
HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
DATA FROM A MICROWAVE SATELLITE INDICATE THAT HILDA IS A SMALL
STORM...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 35
MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.6N 138.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 230231
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112009
0300 UTC SUN AUG 23 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 138.5W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 138.5W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 138.1W
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.7N 139.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.1N 141.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.5N 143.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.8N 144.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.0N 148.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 15.0N 151.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 15.0N 154.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 138.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
ACPN50 PHFO 230145
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT AUG 22 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HILDA WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 1180 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
$$
BURKE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 222347
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE BILL IS CENTERED NEAR 37.8N 68.3W AT 23/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 220 NM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 480 NM SSW
OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 21 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
LOCATED WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER IN
THE NW QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 10 KT. LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED IN THE CLOUD FIELD ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS N OF 11N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N-20N E OF 20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS
INTERIOR W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 9W-17W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. A 1009
MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH
A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN ELONGATED ARE OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE S OF 16N BETWEEN
35W-48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN
40W-46W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. AN
AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 60W-68W.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 11N19W 13N31W 12N40W 11N43W 8N52W
9N62W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 21W-27W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS AND DIPS SWD INTO THE
EXTREME NRN GULF N OF 27N. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND WWD TO GALVESTON TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED SE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NE FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W SW TO 26N88W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN GULF WATERS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 83W-94W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE FLORIDA
PENINSULA E OF 81W. AN EXTENSION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FOUND ALONG 90W TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N90W.
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-22N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
WRN GULF A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N93W. WHILE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF...W OF
94W AND S OF 24N ARE AREAS OF FAIR WEATHER AND RELATIVELY LITTLE
CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 13N E OF 68W. THIS
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE MOVING WWD
ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N67W THAT ENCOMPASSES MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN TO 85W. MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH A
FEW AREAS OF STRONGER SUBSIDENCE ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE BASIN THAT ARE INHIBITING ANY AREAS OF
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS...INCLUDING INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO ITS EAST GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST AND
ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TO 79W. FARTHER TO THE
E...AS HURRICANE BILL CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF TO THE N-NE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. THIS RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1025
MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N51W WITH THE RIDGE ALONG
32N56W 25N65W TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS RIDGE IS
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N67W THAT IS PROMOTING
WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 26N52W. ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY
ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 29N48W TO 20N58W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN
ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N23W.
$$
HUFFMAN
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 222343
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SABADO 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN BILL...LOCALIZADO COMO A 255 MILLAS AL SUR SURESTE DE
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
PARA EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BRENNAN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222332
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY-FORMED
TROPICAL STORM HILDA...LOCATED ABOUT 1225 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO HAWAII.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT A THOUSAND MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HILDA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ31 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP1.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
ABNT20 KNHC 222332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 255 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
WTNT33 KNHC 222331
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
800 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
...BILL MOVING NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM
TO POINT ACONI.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH...FOR THE
WESTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE...
AND FOR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND AROUND THE WESTERN...
SOUTHERN...AND EASTERN COASTS OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO HARBOUR DEEP.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 255
MILES...415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND
ABOUT 550 MILES...880 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...MOVE OVER OR NEAR NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY...AND BE NEAR
NEWFOUNDLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS BILL MOVES OVER
COOLER WATERS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
275 MILES...445 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND...WITH AROUND 1 INCH
EXPECTED OVER OUTER CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND SPREAD INTO THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES
OF CANADA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. SWELLS
FROM BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.8N 68.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 24 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222132
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 22 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
HILDA. HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 137.7W OR ABOUT 1100 NM...
1970 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AT 22/2100 UTC. HILDA WAS
MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 9 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
WAS 1006 MB. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS CONFINED TO WITHIN
120 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN THE
PAST HOUR INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED FOR
THE TIME BEING DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER OF RESPONSIBILITY
WITHIN 24 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM HILDA
CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 108W FROM 08N TO 20N MOVING W AT 17 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAY
TODAY SHOWED AN IMPROVED AREA OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING WITH EVIDENCE OF A CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE AXIS
NEAR 14N. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N TO 15N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM
W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N TO 20N. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 124W FROM 08N TO 17N MOVING W 15 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO INDICATED SOME
CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 15N
WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N77W TO 13N110W TO 11N135W TO
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF
13N101.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF
12N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 100 NM OF 13N114W.
...DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...
A FAIRLY COMPLEX MID-UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICS. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR 23N106W...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST
NEAR 28N123W...ANOTHER UPPER HIGH NEAR 23N135W...AND ANOTHER
UPPER LOW WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 23N146W. WHILE THE PATTERN IS
AMPLIFIED...THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NEAR MEXICO WHERE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL
IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN RANGE. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST...HAS WEAKENED THE SURFACE
RIDGE AND HENCE THE TRADES. THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING WINDS TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 20
KT...EXCEPT FOR OVER THE FAR NW CORNER. A MIX OF N AND S SWELL
WILL ELEVATE SEAS TO 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUN AND
MON.
S OF 20N...
VERY DIFFLUENT NE MID-UPPER FLOW AND DEEP MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS
PRESENT ACROSS THE TROPICS. DIFFLUENT FLOW WAS MOST PRONOUNCED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W AND WAS AIDING
IN MAINTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SEE
ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. LONG PERIOD...14-17 SECOND...S TO SW
SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
$$
COBB
000
WTNT23 KNHC 222115
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
2100 UTC SAT AUG 22 2009
CORRECTED TO CHANGE PORT LAWRENCE TO FORT LAWRENCE IN TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT ACONI AND HAS
EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE
NORTHWARD TO HARBOUR DEEP. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT
ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT
ACONI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI
WESTWARD TO TIDNISH AND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO
LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...AND FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO HARBOUR DEEP.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 68.8W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 21 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT.......240NE 150SE 130SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 540SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 68.8W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 68.9W
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 40.2N 67.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 150SE 100SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 44.2N 63.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 225SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 48.0N 54.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 50.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 52.0N 20.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 57.0N 7.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 64.0N 2.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 68.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
000
WTNT33 KNHC 222114
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 30...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
CORRECTED TO CHANGE PORT LAWRENCE TO FORT LAWRENCE IN TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AREA
...BILL EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT ACONI AND HAS
EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE
NORTHWARD TO HARBOUR DEEP. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT
ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT
ACONI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI
WESTWARD TO TIDNISH AND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO
LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...AND FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO HARBOUR DEEP.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES...
480 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 585
MILES...940 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER OR NEAR NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS
BILL MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND...AND NEAR 1 INCH OVER OUTER
CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE LARGE SWELLS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE
ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA TODAY AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.1N 68.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 24 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 222033
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112009
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2009
...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN...
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1930 MILES...3105 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 1225 MILES...1970 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO
HAWAII.
HILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.6N 137.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 222033
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112009
2100 UTC SAT AUG 22 2009
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 137.7W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 137.7W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 137.3W
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.8N 139.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.1N 140.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.5N 142.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.9N 144.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.0N 147.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 15.0N 150.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 15.0N 153.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 137.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN
000
WTNT33 KNHC 222033
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
...BILL EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY...
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT ACONI AND HAS
EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE
NORTHWARD TO HARBOUR DEEP. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT
ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT
ACONI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI
WESTWARD TO TIDNISH AND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO
LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...AND FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO HARBOUR DEEP.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES...
480 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 585
MILES...940 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER OR NEAR NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS
BILL MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND...AND NEAR 1 INCH OVER OUTER
CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THE LARGE SWELLS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE
ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA TODAY AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.1N 68.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 24 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTNT23 KNHC 222033
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
2100 UTC SAT AUG 22 2009
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT ACONI AND HAS
EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD COVE
NORTHWARD TO HARBOUR DEEP. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT
ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT
ACONI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI
WESTWARD TO TIDNISH AND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO
LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...AND FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO HARBOUR DEEP.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 68.8W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 21 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT.......240NE 150SE 130SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 540SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 68.8W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 68.9W
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 40.2N 67.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 150SE 100SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 44.2N 63.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 225SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 48.0N 54.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 50.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 52.0N 20.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 57.0N 7.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 64.0N 2.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 68.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTNT23 KNHC 222033
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
2100 UTC SAT AUG 22 2009
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT ACONI AND HAS
EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLDS COVE
NORTHWARD TO HARBOUR DEEP. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CHARLESVILLE TO POINT
ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM ECUM SECUM TO POINT
ACONI.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI
WESTWARD TO TIDNISH AND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO
LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...AND FOR THE
WESTERN PORTION OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT LAWRENCE TO CHARLESVILLE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM PARSONS POND AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO HARBOUR DEEP.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 68.8W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 21 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT.......240NE 150SE 130SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 540SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 68.8W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 68.9W
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 40.2N 67.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 150SE 100SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 44.2N 63.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 225SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 48.0N 54.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 50.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 100SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 52.0N 20.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 57.0N 7.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 64.0N 2.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 68.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
ACPN50 PHFO 221946
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SAT AUG 22 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI FLORIDA IS ISSUING
ADVISORIES ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E...LOCATED
ABOUT 1175 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SOMETIME TONIGHT AS A
TROPICAL STORM.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
$$
BURKE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 221753
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL AT 22/1800 UTC IS NEAR 36.0N 68.8W
OR ABOUT 370 MILES...595 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
BILL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 20 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AFOS/WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER TCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BILL IS A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND IS
TRAVERSING COOLER WATERS THUS A WEAKENING TREND IS ON GOING.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 33N-38N BETWEEN
64W-70W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA AT 13W S OF 17N
MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-20N BETWEEN
13W-19W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. A
1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 12N38W. A SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM IS NOTED. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 39W-45W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 17N MOVING 15-20 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 59W-64W.
...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 13N30W 11N44W 8N50W 10N61W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 21W-24W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 30N82W 27N86W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 88W93W DUE TO PREFRONTAL
ACTIVITY. A 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W.
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-21N
BETWEEN 96W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 29N. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W. EXPECT A TROUGH AND A
COLD FRONT TO GO OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1008 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. MODERATE TRADES ARE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 80W-81W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN
83W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. FURTHER E...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR
JAMAICA. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT...
CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF NICARAGUA.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE BILL IS NOW MOVING N AWAY FROM OUR AREA HOWEVER LONG
PERIOD SWELL IS REACHING THE FLORIDA COAST. A SURFACE HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N47W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N. CONVECTION IN THE TROPICS IS
CONFINED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 23N65W. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N50W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 16N35W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N25W.
$$
FORMOSA
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 221748
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SABADO 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN BILL...LOCALIZADO COMO A 370 MILLAS AL SUR DE NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS.
PARA EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221747
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221746
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY-FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E...LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE INCREASED
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP1.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
000
WTNT33 KNHC 221744
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
200 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
...HURRICANE BILL MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM
CHARLESVILLE IN SHELBURNE COUNTY EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM IN HALIFAX
COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF ECUM SECUM TO POINT
ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI
WESTWARD TO TIDNISH AND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO
LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...AND AROUND
THE WESTERN PORTION OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE IN CUMBERLAND
COUNTY TO CHARLESVILLE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR FROM PARSONS POND AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
NEWFOUNDLAND TO ARNOLDS COVE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC..THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES...
595 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF
BILL MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AND BERMUDA...AN NEAR 1 INCH
OVER OUTER CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA...AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA LATER TODAY AND
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...36.0N 68.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 23 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTNT33 KNHC 221741
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
200 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
...HURRICANE BILL MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM
CHARLESVILLE IN SHELBURNE COUNTY EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM IN HALIFAX
COUNTY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM JUST EAST OF ECUM SECUM TO POINT
ACONI. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI
WESTWARD TO TIDNISH AND FROM VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO
LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE COUNTY...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...AND AROUND
THE WESTERN PORTION OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE IN CUMBERLAND
COUNTY TO CHARLESVILLE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR FROM PARSONS POND AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
NEWFOUNDLAND TO ARNOLDS COVE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC..THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 369 MILES...
595 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF
BILL MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AND BERMUDA...AN NEAR 1 INCH
OVER OUTER CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA...AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA LATER TODAY AND
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...36.0N 68.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 23 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221603
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 22 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N
136.9W AT 22/1500 UTC MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 9 KT WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1007 MB. THE DEPRESSION WAS LOCATED 1075
NM...2050 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS CONFINED TO WITHIN 150 NM IN THE
W SEMICIRCLE. THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION WAS DUE TO
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO LIMITING DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER OF
RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 106W/107W FROM 08N TO 17N MOVING W 15-17
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE EARLIEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW AN IMPROVED AREA OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WITH
EVIDENCE OF A CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N. THE
WAVE MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED WESTWARD ON THE 18 UTC SURFACE
ANALYSIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED IN A
BROAD BAND S OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 106W AND 115W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 123W FROM 08N TO 18N MOVING W 12 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS NOT AS WELL-DEFINED AS THE ONE
ALONG 106W/107W. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS APPARENT WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 12N TO 15N.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N81W TO 13N106W TO 12N130W TO
14N132W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 115W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 125W.
...DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...
A FAIRLY COMPLEX MID-UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICS. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS OVER SRN MEXICO NEAR 23N105W
...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST...ANOTHER UPPER HIGH NEAR
23N135W...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW WEST OF THE AREA NEAR 23N146W.
WHILE THE PATTERN IS AMPLIFIED ...THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IS
NEAR MEXICO WHERE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS/DRAINAGE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 105W-110W...NEAR THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST...HAS
WEAKENED THE SURFACE RIDGE AND HENCE THE TRADES. THIS TROUGH
WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING WINDS TO BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KT...EXCEPT FOR OVER THE FAR NW CORNER. A
MIX OF N AND S SWELL WILL ELEVATE SEAS TO 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA SUN AND MON.
S OF 20N...
ELY MID-UPPER FLOW AND A HIGHLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE TROPICS. CONVECTION IS FOCUSED AROUND THE TROPICAL
WAVES AND THE ITCZ. SEE ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. LONG
PERIOD...14-17 SECONDS... S TO SW SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
$$
COBB
000
WTNT33 KNHC 221549
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 29...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
CORRECTED TO ADD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH SEGMENT FOR EASTERN CANADA
...HURRICANE BILL MOVING NORTHWARD...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC... ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE IN SHELBURNE COUNTY
EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM IN HALIFAX COUNTY...A HURRICANE WATCH FROM
JUST EAST OF ECUM SECUM TO POINT ACONI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH AND FROM
VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE
COUNTY...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND...AND AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF
NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY TO
CHARLESVILLE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR FROM
PARSONS POND AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO
ARNOLDS COVE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES...
700 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 710 MILES...1140
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF
BILL MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AND BERMUDA...AN NEAR 1 INCH
OVER OUTER CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA...AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA LATER TODAY AND
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...35.1N 68.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 23 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTNT33 KNHC 221455
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
...HURRICANE BILL MOVING NORTHWARD...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC... ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE IN SHELBURNE COUNTY
EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM IN HALIFAX COUNTY...A HURRICANE WATCH FROM
JUST EAST OF ECUM SECUM TO POINT ACONI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH AND FROM
VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE
COUNTY...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR FROM PARSONS POND AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
NEWFOUNDLAND TO ARNOLDS COVE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES...
700 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 710 MILES...1140
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF
BILL MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AND BERMUDA...AN NEAR 1 INCH
OVER OUTER CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA...AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA LATER TODAY AND
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...35.1N 68.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 23 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 221444
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112009
1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2009
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 136.9W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 136.9W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 136.4W
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.7N 138.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.1N 139.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.6N 141.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.0N 142.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.5N 146.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 15.5N 149.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 15.5N 151.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 136.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 221444
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112009
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2009
...ELEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EAST
PACIFIC...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.9 WEST
OR ABOUT 1880 MILES...3025 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 1275 MILES...2050 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HILO HAWAII.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.6N 136.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 221444
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112009
1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2009
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 136.9W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 136.9W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 136.4W
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.7N 138.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.1N 139.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.6N 141.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.0N 142.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.5N 146.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 15.5N 149.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 15.5N 151.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 136.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 221444
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112009
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2009
...ELEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EAST
PACIFIC...
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.9 WEST
OR ABOUT 1880 MILES...3025 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ABOUT 1275 MILES...2050 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HILO HAWAII.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.6N 136.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
000
WTNT33 KNHC 221441
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
..HURRICANE BILL MOVING NORTHWARD...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC... ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE IN SHELBURNE COUNTY
EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM IN HALIFAX COUNTY...A HURRICANE WATCH FROM
JUST EAST OF ECUM SECUM TO POINT ACONI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH AND FROM
VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE
COUNTY...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR FROM PARSONS POND AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
NEWFOUNDLAND TO ARNOLDS COVE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES...
700 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 710 MILES...1140
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF
BILL MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TRACK OF BILL ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NANTUCKET ISLAND AND BERMUDA...AN NEAR 1 INCH
OVER OUTER CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA...AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA LATER TODAY AND
SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...35.1N 68.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 23 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTNT23 KNHC 221441
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2009
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC... ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM CHARLESVILLE IN SHELBURNE COUNTY
EASTWARD TO ECUM SECUM IN HALIFAX COUNTY...A HURRICANE WATCH FROM
JUST EAST OF ECUM SECUM TO POINT ACONI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF POINT ACONI WESTWARD TO TIDNISH AND FROM
VICTORIA IN QUEEN COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LOWER DARNLEY IN PRINCE
COUNTY...PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR FROM PARSONS POND AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
NEWFOUNDLAND TO ARNOLDS COVE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 68.6W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 75NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 135SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 450SE 540SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 68.6W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 68.5W
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 38.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 135SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 215SE 130SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 46.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 60SE 45SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 115SE 75SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 180SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 49.5N 49.4W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 60NW.
34 KT...175NE 270SE 270SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 52.0N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 300SW 200NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 58.0N 9.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 63.0N 5.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 68.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
ACPN50 PHFO 221330
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SAT AUG 22 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...HAWAII MOVED WEST AT NEAR 10 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION WOULD CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. IF THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AT ITS PRESENT
SPEED...IT PROBABLY WILL CROSS 140W INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
$$
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221154
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2009
CORRECTED TO INDICATE THAT THIS PRODUCT IS NOT A SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. EVEN THOUGH
THIS SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT. HOWEVER...ANY
FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ABOUT 1070 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS DIMINISHED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 221146
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SABADO 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN BILL...LOCALIZADO COMO A 410 MILLAS AL ESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA.
AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS ASOCIADOS A UNA ONDA TROPICAL EN RUTA HACIA EL
OESTE ESTAN LOCALIZADAS ENTRE AFRICAY LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y
PERMANECEN DESORGANIZADAS. LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES ALTOS DE LA
ATMOSFERA SE ESTAN TORNANDO MENOS FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO. EXISTE
UNA PROBABILIDAD BAJA...MENOS DE 30 POR CIENTO...DE QUE ESTE SISTEMA
SE CONVIERTA EN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR AVILA
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221141
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 410 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221132
TWOEP
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
435 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. EVEN THOUGH
THIS SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT. HOWEVER...ANY
FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ABOUT 1070 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS DIMINISHED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
000
WTNT33 KNHC 221132
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
800 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
...BILL MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...
380 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 410 MILES...660 KM...
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT
510 MILES...820 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE
BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY OR
TONIGHT AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY WEAKENING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF BILL MOVES NORTH
OF THE GULF STREAM.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. BERMUDA IS STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
AROUND 40 MPH...64 KM/HR...AT THIS TIME.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS INDICATED THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG
THE COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA...AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...34.0N 68.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 22 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
AXNT20 KNHC 221103
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL AT 22/0900 UTC IS NEAR 33.0N 68.5W
OR ABOUT 220 MILES/355 KM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND
ABOUT 430 MILES/690 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 575 MILES/925 KM
TO THE SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BILL IS MOVING TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST 19 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 960 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AFOS/WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER TCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME OF THE MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM HURRICANE BILL COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO 36N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW STRETCHES FROM PUERTO RICO TO 40N BETWEEN
52W AND 78W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
32N TO 35N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE FROM 35N TO
37N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS REPORTED TO BE ALONG 20W/21W AT
22/0000 UTC WAS MOVED TO 15W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST
10 KT. THE WAVE WAS MOVED BACKWARD IN ORDER TO FIT THE PATTERN
OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS. THAT PATTERN SHOWS THAT THE WAVE
STILL IS OVER LAND...AND NOT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN YET. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND
20W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 21W AND 22W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N36W.
THIS LOW CENTER IS ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 15N37W
8N36W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 36W AND 37W.
OTHER ITCZ SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N60W 11N59W 8N58W MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM 12N21W TO 12N35W...FROM 12N38W TO 11N48W TO 11N57W.
DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 15N.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N...PART OF THE
SAME AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD.
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHES THE COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
REMAIN FROM 28.5N TO 30N BETWEEN 83W AND 84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IS INLAND AWAY FROM
THE COASTAL PLAINS.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 80W
INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA FROM EL SALVADOR TO GUATEMALA...
HONDURAS...AND IN MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC EASTWARD
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE AREA OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE DIFFLUENT
FLOW IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FLOW REGIMES FROM JAMAICA TO THE WATERS
TO THE EAST OF NICARAGUA. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE MOVING WESTWARD IN THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N51W. A TROUGH RUNS
FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 24N53W. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS
FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 44W AND 56W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
32N22W TO 28N25W TO 28N30W.
$$
MT
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220928
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT AUG 22 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE....
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 14N135W 1008 MB IS MOVING
W NEAR 10 KT. WHILE AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN PERSISTING OVERNIGHT...MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THAT THIS
CONVECTIVE MASS IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE W OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. THIS DECOUPLED STRUCTURE IS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
ELY SHEAR. A QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 03Z REVEALED 20-30 KT WINDS
WITHIN 300 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING
CLOSELY MONITORED AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IF THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IMPROVES.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105W FROM 08N TO 17N MOVING W 15 KT.
SHORTWAVE IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPROVED AREA OF LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WITH EVIDENCE OF A CIRCULATION CENTER
ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N. CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED
ESPECIALLY IN A BROAD BAND S OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM
09N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. A 0458 Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS
PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE S OF CENTER...TRIGGERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW NEAR THE
CENTER. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 120W FROM 07N TO 18N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS
WAVE IS NOT AS WELL-DEFINED AS THE ONE ALONG 105W. SOME CYCLONIC
TURNING IS APPARENT...BUT CONVECTION IS MINIMAL.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N84W 12N102W 11N115W 13N134W
12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO
13N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 108W AND 116W.
...DISCUSSION...
N OF 20N...
A FAIRLY COMPLEX MID-UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SUBTROPICS. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER SRN MEXICO...AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE NRN BAJA COAST...ANOTHER UPPER HIGH NEAR 23N133W...AND
ANOTHER UPPER LOW NEAR 23N145W. WHILE THE PATTERN IS AMPLIFIED
...THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NEAR MEXICO WHERE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS/DRAINAGE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
19N-28N BETWEEN 103W-109W. A WEAK SFC TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST...HAS WEAKENED THE TRADES.
THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING
WINDS TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KT...EXCEPT FOR OVER THE FAR NW
CORNER. A MIX OF N AND S SWELL WILL ELEVATE SEAS TO 6 TO 8 FT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUN AND MON.
S OF 20N...
ELY MID-UPPER FLOW AND A HIGHLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE TROPICS. CONVECTION IS FOCUSED AROUND THE TROPICAL
WAVES AND THE ITCZ. SEE ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. LONG
PERIOD...14-17 SECONDS... S TO SW SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
$$
CANGIALOSI
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 220922
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON VAMCO (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112009
800 PM CHST SAT AUG 22 2009
...TYPHOON VAMCO NEAR MINAMI TORI SHIMA AND ACCELERATING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 7 PM CHST...0900Z...TYPHOON VAMCO WAS CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE
25.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.1 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 960 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND 780 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND.
TYPHOON VAMCO IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. A TURN TOWARDS
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER. VAMCO IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 7 PM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 25.1 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 156.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 MPH.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ON TYPHOON VAMCO.
$$
LEE
000
WTNT33 KNHC 220843
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
...BILL MOVING QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST...
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...
INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MARTHA`S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED ON SATURDAY FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...
355 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 430 MILES...690 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS POSITION IS
ALSO ABOUT 575 MILES...925 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA
ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF BILL MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF
STREAM.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. NOAA BUOY 41048 JUST REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN WINDS
OF 58 MPH...93 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 69 MPH...112 KM/HR.
BERMUDA HAS BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 40 MPH...
64 KM/HR...FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS INDICATED THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG
THE COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA...AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...33.0N 68.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 22 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT23 KNHC 220837
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
0900 UTC SAT AUG 22 2009
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...
INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MARTHA`S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE LIKELY LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 68.5W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 19 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 75NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 135SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 500SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 68.5W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 68.2W
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 36.1N 68.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 135SW 175NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 40.1N 67.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 215SE 130SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 44.1N 63.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 60SE 45SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 115SE 75SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 180SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 48.0N 55.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 90SE 75SW 60NW.
34 KT...175NE 270SE 270SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 51.0N 31.5W...OVER WATER EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 300SE 300SW 200NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 54.0N 14.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 58.0N 4.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 68.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
ACCA62 TJSJ 220749
TWOSPN
PERSPECTIVAS DE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL TROPICO NWS
TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SABADO 22 DE AGOSTO DE 2009
PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...
EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES ESTA EMITIENDO ADVERTENCIAS SOBRE EL
HURACAN BILL...LOCALIZADO COMO A 205 MILLAS AL OESTE DE BERMUDA.
UNA ONDA TROPICAL LOCALIZADA COMO A 750 MILLAS AL OESTE SUROESTE DE
LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE...ESTA PRODUCIENDO ACTIVIDAD DESORGANIZADA
DE AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE MUEVA HACIA
EL OESTE A ALREDEDOR DE 15 MPH EN LOS PROXIMOS DIAS Y DESARROLLO...
SI ALGUNO...SERA LENTO. EXISTE UNA BAJA PROBABILIDAD...MENOS DE 30
POR CIENTO...DE QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE CONVIERTA EN CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN
TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SNM EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
000
ACPN50 PHFO 220730
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST FRI AUG 21 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1370 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...HAWAII MOVED WEST AT NEAR 10 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION WOULD CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. IF THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AT ITS PRESENT
SPEED...IT PROBABLY WILL CROSS 140W INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
$$
RYSHKO
000
AXNT20 KNHC 220612
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL AT 22/0600 UTC IS NEAR 32.2N 68.2W
OR ABOUT 205 MILES/330 KM TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT
475 MILES/765 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA. BILL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 17 KT. THE CORE
OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OPEN WATERS
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY. BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. BILL
IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES/140 KM FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 275 MILES/445 KM. A WEATHER STATION AT COMMISSIONERS POINT
ON BERMUDA...AT AN ELEVATION OF 250 FEET...RECENTLY REPORTED
A 10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH/98 KM/HR...WITH A GUST
OF 97 MPH/156 KM/HR. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AFOS/WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER TCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME OF THE MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM HURRICANE BILL COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO 36N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW REACHES PUERTO RICO TO THE SOUTH AND 38N
TO THE NORTH...BETWEEN 51W AND 78W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. OTHER
SHOWERS ARE FROM 33N TO 35N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N34W.
THIS LOW CENTER IS ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 34W TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 33W AND
36W. SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.
...THE ITCZ...
ROUGHLY ALONG 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N40W 10N50W...
CURVING TO 12N54W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF
90W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF 94W...PART OF THE
SAME AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD...
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS INLAND AWAY FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE COAST TO 30N BETWEEN
THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER AND 98W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 92W.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN HONDURAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL GUATEMALA...AND IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
FROM IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. BROAD AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE COAST TO 12N BETWEEN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND 64W.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N50W. A TROUGH RUNS
FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 25N50W. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE NORTH OF 50W BETWEEN 48W AND 50W.
$$
MT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 220600
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 205 MILES WEST OF BERMUDA.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT33 KNHC 220557
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
200 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009
...BILL MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.
INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL. TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST OR ABOUT 205 MILES...
330 KM...WEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 475 MILES...765 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA ON
SUNDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
275 MILES...445 KM. NOAA BUOY 41048...LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES WEST
OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 52 MPH...
84 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 65 MPH...104 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTER IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.
BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS INDICATED THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG
THE COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA...AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
...SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...32.2N 68.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 20 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220538
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 21 2009
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1070 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 560 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
000
ACPN50 PHFO 220535
TWOCP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST FRI AUG 21 2009
FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180
1. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1370 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF HILO...HAWAII MOVED WEST AT NEAR 10 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION WOULD CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. IF THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AT ITS PRESENT
SPEED...IT PROBABLY WILL CROSS 140W INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
$$
RYSHKO
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