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Predicting the Relative Impacts of Urban Development Policies and On-Road Vehicle Technologies on Air Quality in the United States: Modeling and Analysis of a Case Study in Austin, Texas

EPA Grant Number: R831839
Title: Predicting the Relative Impacts of Urban Development Policies and On-Road Vehicle Technologies on Air Quality in the United States: Modeling and Analysis of a Case Study in Austin, Texas
Investigators: McDonald-Buller, Elena , Allen, David T. , Kockelman, Kara , Parmenter, Barbara
Institution: University of Texas at Austin
EPA Project Officer: Bloomer, Bryan
Project Period: December 20, 2004 through December 19, 2007 (Extended to December 19, 2008)
Project Amount: $650,000
RFA: Regional Development, Population Trend, and Technology Change Impacts on Future Air Pollution Emissions (2004)
Research Category: Global Climate Change

Description:

Objective:

Robust forecasts of land use, emissions, and activity patterns are essential for air quality model predictions. The objectives of this proposal are to:

1. Apply an integrated transportation-land use model (ITLUM) to investigate the impacts of regional development scenarios and trade policies on the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions of ozone precursors. ITLUM-based forecasts will be compared with four pre-determined metropolitan development scenarios: i) low-density, segregated-use development based on extensive highway provision; ii) concentrated, contiguous regional growth within 1-mile of transportation corridors; iii) concentrated growth in existing and new communities with distinct boundaries; iv) high-density development and balanced-use zoning.

2. Compare the air quality impacts of regional development scenarios on predicted ozone concentrations and human exposure patterns using a photochemical grid model.

3. Test the hypothesis that predicted human exposure patterns based on ITLUM emission forecasts will differ from those based on the U.S. EPA’s post-Clean Air Act Amendment emission scenario projections.

4. Test the hypothesis that changes in land use and dry deposition patterns have at least as significant an impact on future air quality as changes in on-road vehicle emission control technologies.

Approach:

The hypotheses will be investigated using a case study in the Austin, Texas Metropolitan Statistical Area. Biogenic and anthropogenic emissions will be quantified and mapped for each scenario and used as input to the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions to evaluate air quality and human exposure patterns and to test the hypotheses.

Expected Results:

Integrated modeling efforts, such as those proposed in this study, have the potential to facilitate policy decisions that chart a better and more cost-effective path towards healthful environments for U.S. communities. This work will provide the structure needed for comprehensive modeling of regional land use, transport, and air quality futures.

Publications and Presentations:

Publications have been submitted on this project: View all 33 publications for this project

Journal Articles:

Journal Articles have been submitted on this project: View all 4 journal articles for this project

Supplemental Keywords:

urban air quality, land use, travel demand models, emission forecasts, ozone, air quality models, central Texas, CAMx , Ecosystem Protection/Environmental Exposure & Risk, RESEARCH, Air, Scientific Discipline, Health, RFA, PHYSICAL ASPECTS, Risk Assessments, Monitoring, climate change, Health Risk Assessment, Physical Processes, Ecological Risk Assessment, Air Pollution Effects, Atmosphere, Monitoring/Modeling, Environmental Monitoring, airborne urban contaminants, Global Climate Change, public health effects, remote sensing, air quality, fine particles, landscape characterization, human health risk, land use, ozone concentrations, air quality modeling, integrated assessments, climate models, automobile exhaust, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry, particulate matter, global change, atmospheric measurements, model-based analysis, model assisted estimation, exposure, green house gas concentrations, modeling, transportation, ambient air pollution, motor vehicle emissions, ecosystem models, environmental stressors, human activity, human exposure, air quality model

Progress and Final Reports:
2005 Progress Report
2006 Progress Report
2007 Progress Report

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The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Conclusions drawn by the principal investigators have not been reviewed by the Agency.

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