New experimental air quality forecast guidance produced by NOAA's National
Weather Service (NWS) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will
provide critical, high resolution data that will enable state and local
agencies to issue more accurate and geographically specific air quality
warnings to the public. NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, is an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
The new Air Quality Forecast (AQF) capability provides experimental
hour-by-hour ozone forecasts, for the Northeastern U.S., through midnight
of the following day, at 12 km mesh resolution; much more geographically
specific than currently possible with metro area-wide alerts issued for
participating communities. This information will be posted on NOAA and
EPA data servers, available to the public and state and local air quality
forecasters. NOAA will carry out several months of real time testing
and evaluation before adding it to NWS operational products.
The key to the AQF program is the partnership of NOAA and EPA
scientists, especially those at NCEP, ARL, and EPA/ORD, to improve
air quality prediction science and advance computer modeling
technology, enabling NOAA's National Weather Service to simulate
atmospheric conditions using data provided by EPA. Twice daily,
early in the morning and early afternoon, NCEP's operational
supercomputers will produce ground-level ozone forecasts and
post them on NWS and EPA data servers.
The ozone forecast guidance represents the first step in an improved national
AQF capability that will continue to grow over the next decade. Phase
one provides hourly updated ozone forecast information throughout the
northeastern United States beginning in September 2004. Coverage will
expand to the entire nation within five years. Once ozone forecasts are
available throughout the U.S., the capability will be extended to
include particulate matter forecasts, then cover longer time periods
(day two and beyond) and eventually, additional pollutants.