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Click here for graphic showing U.S. Department of Commerce logo and link to site Climate of 2002 - August
Colorado Drought

National Climatic Data Center, 13 September 2002

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Statewide Overview / Southern Colorado Paleo Perspective

Click here to go to Top of Page Statewide Overview

August marked the twelfth consecutive month with near to much below-normal precipitation statewide. This persistent dryness has resulted in the fifth driest summer (June-August) and driest April-August to September-August seasons (see table below). The long-term moisture deficits, averaged across the state, are unprecedented and have caused the most severe statewide Palmer Drought Index in the 20th century record.

According to the Colorado state climatologist (Dr. Roger Pielke Sr.), the June-July period had the highest average upper-level characteristics (average 700 mb temperatures, 850-700 mb thicknesses, and 500 mb heights) in the NCEP Reanalysis period of record (1948-2002) over the state. (Upper atmospheric patterns are an important controlling factor of the temperature and rainfall regime at the surface.) Precipitation deficits over the last year were among the worse (but not the worst) for most individual locations in the last century. The impacts, however, exceeded the severity expected from the precipitation deficits alone. This suggests that we have become more vulnerable to drought in Colorado.

Statewide Precipitation Ranks
for Colorado , 2001-2002
Period Rank
Aug 17th driest
Jul-Aug 6th driest
Jun-Aug 5th driest
May-Aug 2nd driest
Apr-Aug 1st driest
Mar-Aug 1st driest
Feb-Aug 1st driest
Jan-Aug 1st driest
Dec-Aug 1st driest
Nov-Aug 1st driest
Oct-Aug 1st driest
Sep-Aug 1st driest
Click here for graphic showing Colorado statewide precipitation departures, January 1998 - present
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Click here for graphic showing Colorado statewide Palmer Z Index, January 1998 - present
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Click here for graphic showing Colorado statewide precipitation, Sep-August    1895-2002
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Click here for graphic showing Colorado statewide Palmer Hydrological Drought Index, January 1900 - August    2002
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Click here to go to Top of Page Southern Colorado Paleoclimate Perspective

The graph to the right shows the fire scar chronology for the San Juan National Forest in the southern San Jaun Mountains of Colorado from 1686 through 1994. Scars have been collected at nine sites, and at each site numerous scarred trees were sampled. The top graph shows the number of sites each year that experienced fire, where at least one tree in the site exhibited fire scarring. The bottom graph shows the number of sites each year that experienced widespread fire, where at least 25% of the trees in a site exhibited fire scarring. The graphs indicate that fires are a natural part of the forest cycle in southern Colorado. The hiatus in fires circa 1750-1770 is likely climatically related, but the lack of fires during the 20th century is most likely due to fire suppression and changing land use management practices. (This data supplied by Dr. Henri D. Grissino-Mayer and based on research by him and colleagues William H. Romme, Lisa Floyd-Hanna, and David Hanna.) Click here for graph showing San Juan National Forest Fire Scar Chronology, 1686-1994
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Graphic showing NOAA logo NCDC / Clim. Monitoring / Climate-2002 / Aug / U.S. Regional Drought / Search / Help

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