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U.S. Regional Drought Watch

National Climatic Data Center, 13 September 2002

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Global Analysis / Global Hazards / United States / U.S. Drought / Extreme Events
Use these links to access detailed analyses of Global and U.S. data.

Regional Drought Overview / Western U.S. / Central U.S. / Eastern U.S. / Additional Contacts / Questions

Click here to go to Top of Page Regional Overview

August brought beneficial rains to some of the regions that have been experiencing severe drought, especially along the coastal Southeast and parts of the central Plains. But dry conditions continued across much of the drought area, from the Northeast to the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians, and across much of the West. Unusually hot conditions accompanied the dryness, especially from the Northeast to Ohio Valley, but also from the Southwest and into parts of the Great Plains. August was dry at most of the primary stations in Hawaii and Puerto Rico. Alaska was dry in the western and northern sections but wet in the southeast.

These overall conditions are evident in the following indicators:

Two other drought-related monitoring tools are the Vegetation Health Index and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index:

  • NOAA satellite observations of vegetation health from early September revealed stress on vegetation from the southwestern U.S. into the central Plains, and across parts of the Midwest to Great Lakes.
  • The USDA Forest Service uses a satellite-based vegetation health index tool to monitor the risk of wildfires. This Greenness Index for late August revealed above-average stress on vegetation across much of the West and adjoining Great Plains, as well as parts of the eastern U.S. and Ohio Valley.
  • The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is used by the Wildland Fire Assessment System to monitor the risk of wildfires. The end-of-August KBDI showed dry conditions across parts of the West, central and southern Plains, Ohio Valley, and much of the eastern U.S. The Forest Service fire danger analysis indicated a high risk of wildfires across parts of the western U.S. into the central Plains, and across part of Maine. The fire threat conditions can change rapidly from week to week.

The rainfall and surface wetness patterns averaged across the summer months (June-August) clearly indicate the areas suffering from moisture stress during this season. The greatest wetness deficiency occurred in the central Plains and Southeast states, with deficiencies developing in the Ohio Valley (see map to right). Below-normal rainfall occurred at stations in those areas as well as along most of the east coast and much of the Far West, Puerto Rico, and the Hawaiian Islands (see map below left). States having summer precipitation ranks of tenth driest, or drier, were located in the southwestern U.S. and Ohio Valley (see map below right). Click here for map showing satellite-based North America surface wetness anomalies for summer (June-August) 2002
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Click here for dot map showing Percent of Normal Precipitation for Summer (June-August) 2002
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Click here for map showing Statewide Precipitation Ranks for Summer (June-August) 2002
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Click here to go to Top of Page Western U.S. Drought

August is in the dry season for much of the West and Northwest regions, so below normal summer precipitation has less of an impact here than in the winter. However, this month is in the middle of the wet season for the Southwest region and the northern Rockies. On a regional basis, August 2002 was drier than normal across these western areas. The combination of subnormal rainfall and, in some areas, hot temperatures resulted in widespread severe to extreme short-term drought. Summer (June-August) 2002 was drier than normal in these three regions, with the West region having the driest summer on record. The cumulative effect of the dryness over the last several months in the Southwest has resulted in record dry seasons from May-August back to September-August. Severe to extreme long-term drought was widespread across the western U.S. Water year (October 2001-present) precipitation totals were above average in the Northwest reflecting a rainy wet season earlier, but totals dropped precipitously toward the Rockies and the Southwest.
Click here for graph showing Southwest Region precipitation departures, January 1998-present
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Click here for map showing 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index, Mar-Aug 2002
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Numerous wildfires continued across the West during August, agriculture and the cattle industry were severely impacted, and water shortages continued in many localities.

By the beginning of September, topsoil moisture conditions were extremely dry across much of the western U.S. According to September 1 USDA reports, 70% or more of the topsoil was short to very short in Wyoming (91%), Utah (90%), Oregon (89%), New Mexico (85%), and Idaho (71%).

Range and pasture conditions continued to deteriorate in many areas during August. According to September 1 USDA reports, conditions on 49% of the nation's pastures and rangeland were poor or very poor (compared to 37% at this time last year):

  • 80% or more of the range and pasture lands were reported in poor to very poor condition in Colorado (93%), California (90%), Arizona (83%), and Wyoming (80%),
  • 50% or more poor to very poor in Utah (73%), New Mexico (70%), Oregon (63%), Washington (51%), and Nevada (50%).

Several western states had the driest or near-record driest August, summer (June-August), March-August, and September-August in their 108-year record.

A detailed discussion of drought conditions is available for the following regions and states:

Click here for map showing Statewide Precipitation Ranks for Sep 2001-Aug 2002
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Click here to go to Top of Page Central U.S. Drought

The rainfall pattern between the Rocky and Appalachian mountain ranges was mixed during August. Abundant rains fell from northeast Montana to the western Great Lakes, resulting in a wetter-than-normal month for the West North Central and East North Central regions. The rains brought short-term drought relief to parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska, but long-term conditions continued very dry.

Meanwhile, August marked the third consecutive dry month for much of the Ohio Valley, resulting in the 18th driest summer for the Central region. August was rainy over parts of the South region, except for the drought areas of the Trans Pecos and deep south Texas, which continued very dry.

Click here for graph showing West North Central Region precipitation departures, January 1998-present
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Click here for graph showing Central Region precipitation departures, January 1998-present
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By the beginning of September, topsoil moisture conditions were extremely dry across much of the central U.S. According to September 1 USDA reports:

  • 70% or more of the topsoil was short to very short in Ohio (84%), West Virginia (79%), Kansas (73%), Nebraska (71%), Illinois (71%), and Kentucky (71%), and
  • 50% or more short to very short in Missouri (65%).

Range and pasture conditions continued to deteriorate in many areas during August. According to September 1 USDA reports:

  • 80% or more of the range and pasture lands were reported in poor to very poor condition in Nebraska (86%),
  • 75% or more poor to very poor in Kansas (73%), and
  • 50% or more poor to very poor in Ohio (68%), Indiana (67%), South Dakota (60%), North Dakota (56%), Montana (54%), and Missouri (51%).

A detailed discussion of drought conditions is available for the following regions and states: Click here for map showing 3-month SPI, Jun-Aug 2002
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Click here to go to Top of Page Eastern U.S. Drought

This month continued a dry pattern for the Northeast region, giving it the third driest July-August on record. Parts of the Southeast were wet during August while other parts continued very dry, resulting in a regionwide average that was near normal. This month marked the eleventh consecutive month with slightly to much below normal precipitation averaged across the Southeast.

Click here for map showing the Palmer Z Index
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Click here for graph showing Northeast Region precipitation, Jul-Aug 1895-2002
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By the beginning of September, topsoil moisture conditions were extremely dry across much of the eastern U.S. According to September 1 USDA reports:

  • 70% or more of the topsoil was short to very short in Maine (96%), Rhode Island (91%), Pennsylvania (90%), and Virginia (77%), and
  • 50% or more short to very short in New Hampshire (61%), Georgia (60%), Connecticut (56%), Vermont (54%), New York (52%), and Maryland (50%).

Range and pasture conditions continued to deteriorate in many areas during August. According to September 1 USDA reports:

  • 80% or more of the range and pasture lands were reported in poor to very poor condition in Maine (81%),
  • 75% or more poor to very poor in Pennsylvania (84%) and New Jersey (79%), and
  • 50% or more poor to very poor in Virginia (69%), Maryland (65%), Delaware (63%), North Carolina (62%), Massachusetts (51%), and Rhode Island (50%).

Severe to extreme long-term drought persisted from Long Island and southern Pennsylvania to western Georgia. The long-term deficits were so severe that two states (North Carolina and Virginia) had the driest September-August in the 108-year record, with several others second driest (see map below right). The severe short-term dryness in Maine gave the state the driest August on record.

A detailed discussion of drought conditions is available for the following regions and states:

Click here for map showing Statewide Precipitation Ranks for Sep 2001-Aug 2002
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Click here for map showing the 24-month SPI for August 2002
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Click here for map showing Statewide Precipitation for Maine, August, 1895-2002
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Click here to go to Top of Page Additional Contacts:

Damage due to the drought has been summarized by NOAA and the Office of Global Programs in the Climatological Impacts section of the Climate Information Project. Crop impact information can be found at the USDA NASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service) and Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin pages. Drought statements by local National Weather Service Offices can be found at the NWS Hydrologic Information Center. Drought threat assessments and other information can be found at NOAA's Drought Information Center. Additional drought information can be found at the National Drought Mitigation Center, the USDA's National Agricultural Library, the interim National Drought Council, and the NOAA Paleoclimatology Program. The following states have set up web pages detailing current drought conditions and/or their plans to handle drought emergencies:
Colorado - Delaware - Delaware River Basin (DE-NJ-NY-PA) - Florida Panhandle - Georgia - Hawaii - Idaho - Kentucky - Maine - Maryland - Missouri - Montana-1 - Montana-2 - Nebraska - New Jersey-1 - New Jersey-2 - New Jersey-3 - New Mexico - North Carolina - Oklahoma-1 - Oklahoma-2 - Oklahoma-3 - Oregon-1 - Oregon-2 - Pennsylvania-1 - Pennsylvania-2 - Pennsylvania-3 - South Carolina - Texas - Vermont - Virginia - Washington - Wyoming

For additional information on current and past wildfire seasons please see the National Interagency Fire Center web site or the U.S. Forest Service Fire and Aviation web site.

NCDC's Drought Recovery Page shows the precipitation required to end or ameliorate droughts and the probability of receiving the required precipitation.

Additional climate monitoring graphics can be found at the Climate Prediction Center's monitoring pages:

Drought conditions on the Canadian prairies can be found at the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Drought Watch page.

Click here to go to Top of Page For all climate questions other than questions concerning this report, please contact the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Services Division:

Climate Services Division
NOAA/National Climatic Data Center
151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, NC 28801-5001
fax: 828-271-4876
phone: 828-271-4800
email: ncdc.info@noaa.gov
For further information on the historical climate perspective presented in this report, contact:

Richard Heim
NOAA/National Climatic Data Center
151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, NC 28801-5001
fax: 828-271-4328
email: Richard.Heim@noaa.gov
-or-
Jay Lawrimore
NOAA/National Climatic Data Center
151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, NC 28801-5001
fax: 828-271-4328
email: Jay.Lawrimore@noaa.gov
Click here to go to Top of Page
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