AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KPSR 100319
 AFDPSR
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
 820 PM MST SAT MAY 9 2009
 
 .SYNOPSIS...
 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES 
 DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. EXPECT LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN THE 
 WEATHER...WITH A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL 
 TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES WILL PREVAIL OVER 
 MUCH OF THE LOWER DESERT THROUGH NEXT WEEK.           
 
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 .DISCUSSION...
 LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED. DRY WESTERLY FLOW 
 ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR DAYS...WITH NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES AND LITTLE 
 TEMPERATURE CHANGE. CURRENT HOT DRY FORECASTS LOOK OK. NO UPDATES 
 NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL APPLIES.
 
 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER ARIZONA TODAY... 
 WITH H5 HEIGHTS NEAR 585DM OVER PHOENIX. IR IMAGERY AT 2 PM SHOWED 
 SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER 
 DESERTS WERE RATHER LOW...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FOR 
 THE MOST PART. TEMPS WERE RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO VALUES SEEN 24 HOURS 
 AGO...AND MOST DESERTS SHOULD END UP WITH MAX TEMPS TODAY THAT ARE 
 10-13 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
 
 PROGS INDICATE THAT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS 
 EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEK...AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG 
 WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPS WILL MORE OR LESS FLAT LINE OVER THE 
 NEXT 7 DAYS. FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER ZONAL WITH THE MAIN 
 STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ALL WEEK...WITH A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE 
 TO REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT LOTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY WITH 
 GENLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT. DIURNAL TEMP RANGES SHOULD BE RATHER 
 LARGE AS WELL...30 DEGREES OR MORE OVER MOST OF THE LOWER DESERT. 
 TEMPS WILL STAY WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS EACH DAY...BUT BELOW 
 RECORD LEVELS. HIGHS AT PHOENIX SHOULD NOT FLUCTUATE MORE THAN 2-3 
 DEGREES SUNDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...AND SHOULD BE 
 ABOVE 100 EACH DAY.
 
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 .AVIATION...
 SOUTHEAST CA...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING 
 KPHX...KIWA...KBLH...AND KIPL AIRFIELDS. CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY 
 LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z MON. THE ONLY 
 EXCEPTION IS KBLH WHERE AFTERNOON GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...5 TO 15 KNOTS 
 ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z SUN TO 01Z MON. 
 
 AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
 
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 .FIRE WEATHER...
 TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
 HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD BY LATE IN THE 
 PERIOD...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN 
 PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS...MOSTLY
 CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND 
 LOW RH. EXPECT TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND
 25 MPH IN FAVORED LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
 
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 .CLIMATE...
 THE 105 F HIGH AT PHOENIX FRIDAY WAS THE THIRD-WARMEST MAX TEMP FOR 
 8 MAY. THE ONLY TWO HIGHER MAX TEMPS ON THIS CALENDAR DATE WERE 110 
 F IN 1989 AND 106 F IN 2001. THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR 
 PHOENIX ON 8 MAY IS 91 DEGREES. THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PERIOD OF RECORD 
 FOR PHOENIX IS 114 YEARS. 
 
 THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY 9 MAY IS 108 DEGREES SET IN 1934...AND THE 
 AVERAGE HIGH FOR THIS DATE IS 91 DEGREES. 
 
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 .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 
 AZ...NONE.
 
 CA...NONE
 
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 $$
 
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
 
 WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
 
 DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/CB
 AVIATION...VASQUEZ
 FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
 CLIMATE...WANEK/DG
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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